Author Topic: Are we at the beginning of a depression?  (Read 20743 times)

dragoncar

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #150 on: March 23, 2020, 03:00:29 PM »
.

And let me clue you in on another over looked but very important fact - when the economy is tanking (or has tanked), people become extremely risk averse. You think in the midst of a recession or depression people are going to be excited about risking the little they do have left to start a business?



Lol even in a pandemic have you seen the spring break crowds?  People are not risk averse when it comes to going out and having fun.  If nobody wants to invest in that business after this is over, then I will and reap all the profits!

American GenX

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #151 on: March 23, 2020, 03:12:40 PM »
if everyone loses 40% in the stock market but you're able to keep buying in, some day when it recovers, you'll be right.

If you're within about a year of FIRE, and that "some day when it recovers" is years down the road, that would cause you to have to work a few times as long as you otherwise needed to.   So instead of retiring in one year, it could be three, four, or more years.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #152 on: March 23, 2020, 03:21:57 PM »
if everyone loses 40% in the stock market but you're able to keep buying in, some day when it recovers, you'll be right.

If you're within about a year of FIRE, and that "some day when it recovers" is years down the road, that would cause you to have to work a few times as long as you otherwise needed to.   So instead of retiring in one year, it could be three, four, or more years.

Yes, no doubt, that is true. But the reverse applies for someone who is 10 or 15 years from FIRE.

Kronsey

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #153 on: March 23, 2020, 04:00:58 PM »
.

And let me clue you in on another over looked but very important fact - when the economy is tanking (or has tanked), people become extremely risk averse. You think in the midst of a recession or depression people are going to be excited about risking the little they do have left to start a business?



Lol even in a pandemic have you seen the spring break crowds?  People are not risk averse when it comes to going out and having fun.  If nobody wants to invest in that business after this is over, then I will and reap all the profits!

So your example of why people won't be scared to spend and invest once this this Corona stuff blows over is a bunch of drunk college kids partying for Spring break who are living off of mommy and daddy and/or student loans?!?

Genuinely not sure if you are trying to prove my point or if you really think that proves your point ;)

Kronsey

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #154 on: March 23, 2020, 04:10:49 PM »

Not at all.  For people on THIS forum, I would expect most of us have dialed down our expenses, have a nice big stash to fall back on, and are less likely to lose our jobs than the general population.  If we have a mortgage, we have enough saved to pay it for quite a while.  I mean, this is MMM, isn't it?

So for people like us, what does it matter if it's only a few months or a couple of years before recovery starts?

Unless you are saying we'll NEVER recover?

What does dialing down your expenses and having a nice EF have anything to do with losing your job?!?

It matters because a deep recession or depression for a prolonged period of time means that the idea of FI is much farther away than it was just a few weeks ago.

Of course I think we will recover at some point. Of course I think most MMMers will be ok. None of that was the point of the thread though. "Are we at the beginning of a depression?"

If your point is that a depression or recession won't effect any of us, I'm afraid you belong in the crazy person quarantine as well.

I think the point is that a lot of MMM forumites will be economically sheltered from most of the terrible head winds, and the effects will be mitigated. E.g. I am fortunate to work in a job (I'm self-employed) that is close to being an essential service. I can see my revenue going down but I can't see it drying up completely. I also have enough savings to last me 5 or 10 years in a pinch if I really need it. So my FIRE timeframe won't necessarily blow out since a lot of it is relative, i.e., if everyone loses 40% in the stock market but you're able to keep buying in, some day when it recovers, you'll be right. In fact if anything I think this might lead me to FIRE earlier since I have a lot of cash to keep throwing at equities. I think that was the point of the person you were replying to: "So for people like us, what does it matter if it's only a few months or a couple of years before recovery starts?"

Yes, I agree with most if your points. If you are able to keep enough cash flow going on the personal level to keep investing throughout this down turn you most definitely will come out ahead.

I'm assuming by all these responses that as individuals, we are all concerned and want to have hope and believe that we will be ok financially.

To me that is a separate thread/topic entirely though. I'm sure there are already some threads on these forums about "how to not just survive but thrive during the corona virus". If there isn't, please start one. I would be happy to contribute what I'm personally doing and why I think with proper planning we very well may come out ahead if our FIRE timeline is 10-15 years.

But I still don't see how my personal financial situation. (or yours) has anything to do with the potential recession/depression birthed from this Corona virus stuff.

I've been working a lot if hours lately and very well could be missing the forest for the trees. Let me know if so!

Bloop Bloop

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #155 on: March 23, 2020, 04:39:52 PM »
You're right - the topic can go a number of ways. It depends on whether, when you (or any poster) answers the topic thread "Are we at the beginning of a depression", the answer relates to societal impacts, individual impacts or both. It's a fait accompli that we are going to enter a recession, and maybe a depression, and people can then take the discussion whichever way the wind blows, though sometimes we might end up posting at cross purposes.

It's in all of our interests for the economic damage to be as limited as possible. But the degree to which there is an upside depends on individual circumstances.

HuskiesUnited

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #156 on: March 23, 2020, 07:42:54 PM »
Here we are barely a month past record highs and the Dow is down 37%.  In 2008, market was down 54% in 18 months.

Virus is growing exponentially around the globe, especially in the US and Europe, with no end in sight.  Even China and South Korea steadily add new cases and deaths each day but at a much slower pace.  Hopefully social distancing will curb things, and we see the peak soon.  But even once we do, when does normalcy return where stadiums are full for live sports and restaurants are packed?  The way the virus spreads, I donít see how we can reopen business as usual until there is a vaccine or the entire population is infected and builds immunity.  This seems months away at best.  And does it go 18 months like the 1918 Spanish Flu?

And I donít see how the market can find a bottom until we are well past the peak and have a plan working to largely control new infections.  GDP almost certain to be down more than 20% in 2Q.  Will it be able to start coming back by 3Q?

The service economy today is already headed for a Great Depression in the next month that may take years to recover
- Restaurants closed across the nation and most maybe lucky to be at 20% of normal sales with takeout / drive through
- No one is flying
- No one is staying in hotels
- Large number of other small business closed and will be forced into bankruptcy if this thing goes on for a couple months, even with government assistance

- GE announcing layoffs, their supply chain will follow
- Real estate, not moving as no one can go out and look at houses.

How bad does this get?
- I believe Dow 10000 is definitely a real possibility if the virus isnít significantly curbed in the next month.  Maybe not in the next month, but in the fallout of unemployment and bankrupt businesses that follow.
- US GDP?  -20 to -30% seems quite possible in 2Q.
- Unemployment?  Likely over 10 percent in a hurry.  Layoffs are starting at an unprecedented pace.

For me, I am considered ďessentialĒ and still going to work for big defense contractor.  The defense budget is probably too large, and may well see significant cuts as part of the fallout of massive government stimulus packages.  Wonít be much effect in the short term, but a significant downsizing of the defense industry is probably overdue, with big layoffs in the defense industry to follow.

My wife is an audiologist at a doctors office and will be furloughed after this week as only emergency patients are being seen right now.  She will go back to work when the practice reopens.  Financially a huge deal for some of the other employees who live paycheck to paycheck, though government stimulus will help.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2020, 07:57:23 PM by HuskieJoe »

Steeze

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #157 on: March 23, 2020, 07:53:11 PM »
As a healthy 32 year old, I wish there was a place I could go get the virus in a controlled way and be isolated from my family. Say, check into a hotel for a couple weeks, get it over with, then go back to work without the fear of getting my wife sick if I get sick. Bunch of empty hotels and sick people around...

MaaS

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #158 on: March 23, 2020, 09:13:01 PM »
Here we are barely a month past record highs and the Dow is down 37%.  In 2008, market was down 54% in 18 months.

Virus is growing exponentially around the globe, especially in the US and Europe, with no end in sight.  Even China and South Korea steadily add new cases and deaths each day but at a much slower pace.  Hopefully social distancing will curb things, and we see the peak soon.  But even once we do, when does normalcy return where stadiums are full for live sports and restaurants are packed?  The way the virus spreads, I donít see how we can reopen business as usual until there is a vaccine or the entire population is infected and builds immunity.  This seems months away at best.  And does it go 18 months like the 1918 Spanish Flu?

And I donít see how the market can find a bottom until we are well past the peak and have a plan working to largely control new infections.  GDP almost certain to be down more than 20% in 2Q.  Will it be able to start coming back by 3Q?

The service economy today is already headed for a Great Depression in the next month that may take years to recover
- Restaurants closed across the nation and most maybe lucky to be at 20% of normal sales with takeout / drive through
- No one is flying
- No one is staying in hotels
- Large number of other small business closed and will be forced into bankruptcy if this thing goes on for a couple months, even with government assistance

- GE announcing layoffs, their supply chain will follow
- Real estate, not moving as no one can go out and look at houses.

How bad does this get?
- I believe Dow 10000 is definitely a real possibility if the virus isnít significantly curbed in the next month.  Maybe not in the next month, but in the fallout of unemployment and bankrupt businesses that follow.
- US GDP?  -20 to -30% seems quite possible in 2Q.
- Unemployment?  Likely over 10 percent in a hurry.  Layoffs are starting at an unprecedented pace.

For me, I am considered ďessentialĒ and still going to work for big defense contractor.  The defense budget is probably too large, and may well see significant cuts as part of the fallout of massive government stimulus packages.  Wonít be much effect in the short term, but a significant downsizing of the defense industry is probably overdue, with big layoffs in the defense industry to follow.

My wife is an audiologist at a doctors office and will be furloughed after this week as only emergency patients are being seen right now.  She will go back to work when the practice reopens.  Financially a huge deal for some of the other employees who live paycheck to paycheck, though government stimulus will help.

I agree with you. It seems that many are a bit on the optimistic side. I'm exposed to a lot of freight/transportation data and things are getting scary. Considering the partisan bickering happening right now, I don't think Congress gets the seriousness of this situation.

I'm not quite ready to say depression, but this is looking very bad.

wanderlustNW

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #159 on: March 23, 2020, 09:43:41 PM »
I was talking with my husband about this. This could be REALLLLY bad here soon. People living paycheck to paycheck will soon not have enough money for the basic groceries. Is the governments plan to make bread lines and soup lines? Now with the virus people would be even afraid for that kind of interaction, and no one would want to staff that.

We were talking the possibility of some civil unrest. When a good portion of people can no longer afford food, let alone housing, utilities, etc. there could be people who have loaded up on guns that decide to take things into their own hands. There are militias out there just waiting to use their firepower. I wouldn't be surprised if the national guards are already prepping for this in some way. It's going to look so shitty when the US can't even provide for the basics for their own citizenry, while the wealthy have all retreated to their chalets with a years worth of food.

I see the possibility of supply chain breakdown in certain sectors. It's hard with all that's going on to not let my brain get into this major funk. Hopefully we will dig ourselves out of this, but this is waaaaaay bigger than 2008.

ysette9

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #160 on: March 23, 2020, 10:02:30 PM »
A depression is an ongoing, multi-year recession.  I do not see how a transient virus can cause this.  There is a hard smack down going on right now but there is nothing fundamentally broken.  People are chomping at the bit to get back to work and many have been told to hang on, we will get you back when we re-open, and in the meantime they are able to access unemployment benefits.     

Businesses that fail because they lost 1/6 of this year's income and had no reserves and no ability to go to the Small Business Administration to stay solvent will be replaced by new businesses.  People will take the risk to fill the space because there will always be someone who thinks they are smarter than the last guy.  People who always wanted to run a little coffee shop or restaurant but didn't have access to an outlet space or didn't have the ability to go to the SBA will now be able to do so.  Those new businesses will hire some of the folks who lost work at the last place. 

Other displaced people will be newly employed in the growing online retail space that we are getting even more addicted to and will fill in the job spots along that economic chain.  Most hopefully, those formerly stuck in service jobs will learn how to do manufacturing in all of the businesses coming back from China as we finally decouple, having learned our lesson about the importance of controlling our supply chain.  That alone-- that HUGE bud of hope to restore manufacturing ability here again will employ so many that it could feel a lot like the public works of the 30s and through WWII.  Can you just imagine how many people will be able to work in living wage jobs?  It could truly be a generation-changing opportunity.       
I like your optimism but I canít fathom the utopian manufacturing dream you have described. We do manufacturing in the US,
It is just that most of it is automated to is doesnít employ many people. Iíve walked the assembly lines in China; they are no-skill or low-skill, crushingly repetitive, boring jobs. Even in China they struggle to keep people for more than a year. In the consumer electronics industry they apparently count on having 100% turnover each year after the Chinese New Year holiday shutdown. I have a hard time imagining who in this country, aside from recent immigrants, would be drawn to those jobs. Not to mention it would be a hard sell to the US consumer to start paying a good bit more for the goods they have been conditioned to get cheaply.

How do you see this playing out?

PDXTabs

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #161 on: March 23, 2020, 10:23:42 PM »
A depression is an ongoing, multi-year recession. 

Depending on who you ask, you don't need a multi-year recession to have a depression. You only need 10% GDP loss. We could absolutely see that.

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #162 on: March 24, 2020, 05:24:08 AM »
I was talking with my husband about this. This could be REALLLLY bad here soon. People living paycheck to paycheck will soon not have enough money for the basic groceries.



yahoo
Dec 16, 2019


Nearly 70% of Americans Have Less Than $1,000 in a Savings Account



statista
Dec 18, 2019


Personal savings in the U.S. The economy might be strong in the U.S., but nearly 70 percent of Americans have less than $1,000 stashed away, according to GOBankingRates' 2019 savings survey. The poll, released December 16, revealed 45 percent have nothing saved.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 05:27:11 AM by John Galt incarnate! »

ctuser1

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #163 on: March 24, 2020, 05:56:55 AM »
No one could fathom this virus situation either.  Extraordinary events cause extraordinary change.  People will understand the value of building our own supply chain and the culture will shift.

I can assure you every single fortune1000 company had detailed disaster recovery plan, that will have a very detailed pandemic section.

I know! Right after 2008, they were very fashionable and it was my job to go out to client locations and create these shiny documents on their behalf (that likely nobody read).

The fact that preparedness was foregone, that the president decided that pandemic response team was too unimportant to stay an independent entity with any significant resources allocated to it etc were all active choices - which should come with it's own "personal responsibility" consequences.

We're all adults and are supposed to be treated as such!!

bigblock440

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #164 on: March 24, 2020, 06:33:11 AM »
if everyone loses 40% in the stock market but you're able to keep buying in, some day when it recovers, you'll be right.

If you're within about a year of FIRE, and that "some day when it recovers" is years down the road, that would cause you to have to work a few times as long as you otherwise needed to.   So instead of retiring in one year, it could be three, four, or more years.

Isn't that the purpose of the 4% WR and SORR plans?  If your retirement hinged on a record long bull market continuing for another decade, there was something wrong with your plans.

joleran

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #165 on: March 24, 2020, 08:44:04 AM »
A depression is an ongoing, multi-year recession.  I do not see how a transient virus can cause this.     

You're absolutely right, but this is almost certainly not a transient virus! It will become a permanent fixture like the current big 4 coronaviridae that are omnipresent and go largely unnoticed, causing common cold symptoms.

Containment has failed in the west, and there's no putting the genie back in the bottle.  A vaccine is at least a year out from being available, most likely closer to 2 years if ever.  After the first wave relaxes, this virus will be back until we start getting herd immunity due to having caught it. 

There is no seasonality to coronaviridae!  We will not see a relaxation in the summer like with the flu.

Saving grace is that we may have within a month more actionable data for drug treatments and ramp up supply of them - the more people that we can have avoid the ICU in the first place, the faster we can reach herd immunity with only localized outbreaks.

sherr

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #166 on: March 24, 2020, 09:03:45 AM »
I was talking with my husband about this. This could be REALLLLY bad here soon. People living paycheck to paycheck will soon not have enough money for the basic groceries.



yahoo
Dec 16, 2019


Nearly 70% of Americans Have Less Than $1,000 in a Savings Account



statista
Dec 18, 2019


Personal savings in the U.S. The economy might be strong in the U.S., but nearly 70 percent of Americans have less than $1,000 stashed away, according to GOBankingRates' 2019 savings survey. The poll, released December 16, revealed 45 percent have nothing saved.

I mean I generally agree that the average American is not as prepared for hardship as they should be, but at the same time you should ignore all of these polls because they're all worthless because they ask worthless questions.

I'm incredibly wealthy by almost any metric, and I have $0 in a savings account. Why would anyone have a savings account when they pay 0.0002% interest?

ysette9

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Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #167 on: March 24, 2020, 09:16:58 AM »
No one could fathom this virus situation either.  Extraordinary events cause extraordinary change.  People will understand the value of building our own supply chain and the culture will shift.

I can assure you every single fortune1000 company had detailed disaster recovery plan, that will have a very detailed pandemic section.

I know! Right after 2008, they were very fashionable and it was my job to go out to client locations and create these shiny documents on their behalf (that likely nobody read).

The fact that preparedness was foregone, that the president decided that pandemic response team was too unimportant to stay an independent entity with any significant resources allocated to it etc were all active choices - which should come with it's own "personal responsibility" consequences.

We're all adults and are supposed to be treated as such!!
I read an article recently that as part of the power transfer between presidential administrations the outgoing administration ran through a bunch of simulated crises for the incoming administration, including a pandemic. Iíll see if I can find the article again. Apparently most of the Trump administration participants have been purged since that day.

***
Edit: here we go https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/trump-inauguration-warning-scenario-pandemic-132797
« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 09:19:44 AM by ysette9 »

dragoncar

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #168 on: March 24, 2020, 10:29:46 AM »
No one could fathom this virus situation either.  Extraordinary events cause extraordinary change.  People will understand the value of building our own supply chain and the culture will shift.

I can assure you every single fortune1000 company had detailed disaster recovery plan, that will have a very detailed pandemic section.

I know! Right after 2008, they were very fashionable and it was my job to go out to client locations and create these shiny documents on their behalf (that likely nobody read).

The fact that preparedness was foregone, that the president decided that pandemic response team was too unimportant to stay an independent entity with any significant resources allocated to it etc were all active choices - which should come with it's own "personal responsibility" consequences.

We're all adults and are supposed to be treated as such!!

Hey Iím sure they are keeping that plan nice and safe in a filing cabinet somewhere

TomTX

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #169 on: March 24, 2020, 02:20:03 PM »
This pandemic, like all pandemics before it, will run its course over a few months.  It's not a zombie apocalypse.
With any of the past viruses, I don't remember the economy being shut down, sports seasons being cancelled, restaurants closed,  empty streets, etc

Not many of us remember 1918 very well...

PDXTabs

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #170 on: March 24, 2020, 03:45:08 PM »
This pandemic, like all pandemics before it, will run its course over a few months.  It's not a zombie apocalypse.
With any of the past viruses, I don't remember the economy being shut down, sports seasons being cancelled, restaurants closed,  empty streets, etc

Not many of us remember 1918 very well...

There were quarantines. Towns closed to the outside world. No depression followed.

American GenX

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #171 on: March 24, 2020, 04:47:34 PM »
if everyone loses 40% in the stock market but you're able to keep buying in, some day when it recovers, you'll be right.

If you're within about a year of FIRE, and that "some day when it recovers" is years down the road, that would cause you to have to work a few times as long as you otherwise needed to.   So instead of retiring in one year, it could be three, four, or more years.

Isn't that the purpose of the 4% WR and SORR plans?  If your retirement hinged on a record long bull market continuing for another decade, there was something wrong with your plans.

Are you kidding? LOL   I was 40% equities, which gave me the highest % of success based on FireCalc, and I still dropped about 5 years of retirement expenses by Monday afternoon.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 04:49:30 PM by American GenX »

bigblock440

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #172 on: March 25, 2020, 05:38:46 AM »
if everyone loses 40% in the stock market but you're able to keep buying in, some day when it recovers, you'll be right.

If you're within about a year of FIRE, and that "some day when it recovers" is years down the road, that would cause you to have to work a few times as long as you otherwise needed to.   So instead of retiring in one year, it could be three, four, or more years.

Isn't that the purpose of the 4% WR and SORR plans?  If your retirement hinged on a record long bull market continuing for another decade, there was something wrong with your plans.

Are you kidding? LOL   I was 40% equities, which gave me the highest % of success based on FireCalc, and I still dropped about 5 years of retirement expenses by Monday afternoon.

Would your plan have failed?  I'm in 95% equities and I only dropped about a year's worth of retirement expenses.

dragoncar

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #173 on: March 25, 2020, 04:39:06 PM »
if everyone loses 40% in the stock market but you're able to keep buying in, some day when it recovers, you'll be right.

If you're within about a year of FIRE, and that "some day when it recovers" is years down the road, that would cause you to have to work a few times as long as you otherwise needed to.   So instead of retiring in one year, it could be three, four, or more years.

Isn't that the purpose of the 4% WR and SORR plans?  If your retirement hinged on a record long bull market continuing for another decade, there was something wrong with your plans.

Are you kidding? LOL   I was 40% equities, which gave me the highest % of success based on FireCalc, and I still dropped about 5 years of retirement expenses by Monday afternoon.

Whatís the other 60%?  Total bond market?  I havenít checked but assume corporate bonds have not done well.  Personally against ďdiversifyingĒ into highly correlated assets

vand

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #174 on: March 26, 2020, 01:48:05 AM »
Singapore Q1 gdp came in -10.6% from previous quarter.. so yup, looks likely

ysette9

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #175 on: March 26, 2020, 04:33:12 PM »
if everyone loses 40% in the stock market but you're able to keep buying in, some day when it recovers, you'll be right.

If you're within about a year of FIRE, and that "some day when it recovers" is years down the road, that would cause you to have to work a few times as long as you otherwise needed to.   So instead of retiring in one year, it could be three, four, or more years.

Isn't that the purpose of the 4% WR and SORR plans?  If your retirement hinged on a record long bull market continuing for another decade, there was something wrong with your plans.

Are you kidding? LOL   I was 40% equities, which gave me the highest % of success based on FireCalc, and I still dropped about 5 years of retirement expenses by Monday afternoon.

Would your plan have failed?  I'm in 95% equities and I only dropped about a year's worth of retirement expenses.
Iím confused how the math works here. We have lost around four yearsí worth of spending so far and we are 60% equities.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #176 on: March 26, 2020, 05:02:59 PM »
Singapore Q1 gdp came in -10.6% from previous quarter.. so yup, looks likely

New unemployment claims this week in the US were 3.3 million. Out of a total workforce of 164.5 million. And really, this lockdown just got swinging a week or so ago. I suspect weíll be past 10% unemployment in a couple of weeks.

bigblock440

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #177 on: March 27, 2020, 06:06:55 AM »
if everyone loses 40% in the stock market but you're able to keep buying in, some day when it recovers, you'll be right.

If you're within about a year of FIRE, and that "some day when it recovers" is years down the road, that would cause you to have to work a few times as long as you otherwise needed to.   So instead of retiring in one year, it could be three, four, or more years.

Isn't that the purpose of the 4% WR and SORR plans?  If your retirement hinged on a record long bull market continuing for another decade, there was something wrong with your plans.

Are you kidding? LOL   I was 40% equities, which gave me the highest % of success based on FireCalc, and I still dropped about 5 years of retirement expenses by Monday afternoon.

Would your plan have failed?  I'm in 95% equities and I only dropped about a year's worth of retirement expenses.
Iím confused how the math works here. We have lost around four yearsí worth of spending so far and we are 60% equities.

Exactly why it's meaningless.  Not everybody has the same spending levels or the same size stash.  It also doesn't matter if you lost "5 years" of spending if you had 100 years of spending saved.  And if you were ready to retire, a drop like this should already be accounted for in your plans.

talltexan

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #178 on: March 30, 2020, 08:23:42 AM »
I don't want to be a party pooper, but to bring this into perspective, when I was a young lad, this planet had 2.3 billion people living on it. Today, a good 50 years later, it's 7.4 billion. What this planet really needs for long term survival of the human race is not more Teslas and not a flu virus, but a meteor that takes about 4,000,000,000 to their creator, primarily in Africa and South East Asia.

On a related note, every weekend more people get shot to death in Chicago's gang ghettos than die from the Covidvirus nationwide. To predict that a million people in the US will die from it is beyond wacko.

Wow, we got Thanos here!

DadJokes

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #179 on: March 30, 2020, 09:33:32 AM »
I don't want to be a party pooper, but to bring this into perspective, when I was a young lad, this planet had 2.3 billion people living on it. Today, a good 50 years later, it's 7.4 billion. What this planet really needs for long term survival of the human race is not more Teslas and not a flu virus, but a meteor that takes about 4,000,000,000 to their creator, primarily in Africa and South East Asia.

On a related note, every weekend more people get shot to death in Chicago's gang ghettos than die from the Covidvirus nationwide. To predict that a million people in the US will die from it is beyond wacko.

Wow, we got Thanos here!

I'll be honest. I kind of thought that Thanos had a point.

sherr

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #180 on: March 30, 2020, 09:58:57 AM »
I don't want to be a party pooper, but to bring this into perspective, when I was a young lad, this planet had 2.3 billion people living on it. Today, a good 50 years later, it's 7.4 billion. What this planet really needs for long term survival of the human race is not more Teslas and not a flu virus, but a meteor that takes about 4,000,000,000 to their creator, primarily in Africa and South East Asia.

On a related note, every weekend more people get shot to death in Chicago's gang ghettos than die from the Covidvirus nationwide. To predict that a million people in the US will die from it is beyond wacko.

Wow, we got Thanos here!

I'll be honest. I kind of thought that Thanos had a point.

If your overriding goal is environmentalism then killing half the people is the fastest and most sure-fire way to get to your goals.

If your overriding goal is doing what's best for mankind, and environmentalism is an off-shoot that flows out of that main concern, then it's obviously not a workable solution. :)

bthewalls

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #181 on: March 30, 2020, 10:21:16 AM »
as depressing and negative as this sounds, Im trying to picture the US market after 300,000-400,000 people die over the next few months....since covid doesn't stop until either, a) a vaccine is successful administered to significant amount of the population, or b) until most have had it and are over it.

A is unlikely. 
B is more likely given the RO and lack of initial measures to curtail.



dragoncar

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #182 on: March 30, 2020, 10:52:34 AM »
I don't want to be a party pooper, but to bring this into perspective, when I was a young lad, this planet had 2.3 billion people living on it. Today, a good 50 years later, it's 7.4 billion. What this planet really needs for long term survival of the human race is not more Teslas and not a flu virus, but a meteor that takes about 4,000,000,000 to their creator, primarily in Africa and South East Asia.

On a related note, every weekend more people get shot to death in Chicago's gang ghettos than die from the Covidvirus nationwide. To predict that a million people in the US will die from it is beyond wacko.

Wow, we got Thanos here!

I'll be honest. I kind of thought that Thanos had a point.

Has the COVID lesson in exponential growth changed your mind about the effectiveness of killing half the population?

kenmoremmm

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #183 on: March 30, 2020, 12:18:07 PM »
I was talking with my husband about this. This could be REALLLLY bad here soon. People living paycheck to paycheck will soon not have enough money for the basic groceries. Is the governments plan to make bread lines and soup lines? Now with the virus people would be even afraid for that kind of interaction, and no one would want to staff that.

We were talking the possibility of some civil unrest. When a good portion of people can no longer afford food, let alone housing, utilities, etc. there could be people who have loaded up on guns that decide to take things into their own hands. There are militias out there just waiting to use their firepower. I wouldn't be surprised if the national guards are already prepping for this in some way. It's going to look so shitty when the US can't even provide for the basics for their own citizenry, while the wealthy have all retreated to their chalets with a years worth of food.

I see the possibility of supply chain breakdown in certain sectors. It's hard with all that's going on to not let my brain get into this major funk. Hopefully we will dig ourselves out of this, but this is waaaaaay bigger than 2008.

i've had this same thought now for awhile. america is ripe for a situation like this. once the first shot is fired, somewhere, it's going to spread. this is one of the reasons i have longed to move to canada. a day late, dollar short i guess.

PDXTabs

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #184 on: March 30, 2020, 12:51:51 PM »
I was talking with my husband about this. This could be REALLLLY bad here soon. People living paycheck to paycheck will soon not have enough money for the basic groceries. Is the governments plan to make bread lines and soup lines? Now with the virus people would be even afraid for that kind of interaction, and no one would want to staff that.

We literally invented the modern welfare state during the Great Depression to eliminate the need for bread lines and poor farms (because the poor farm system was overwhelmed).

DadJokes

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #185 on: March 30, 2020, 05:09:19 PM »
I don't want to be a party pooper, but to bring this into perspective, when I was a young lad, this planet had 2.3 billion people living on it. Today, a good 50 years later, it's 7.4 billion. What this planet really needs for long term survival of the human race is not more Teslas and not a flu virus, but a meteor that takes about 4,000,000,000 to their creator, primarily in Africa and South East Asia.

On a related note, every weekend more people get shot to death in Chicago's gang ghettos than die from the Covidvirus nationwide. To predict that a million people in the US will die from it is beyond wacko.

Wow, we got Thanos here!

I'll be honest. I kind of thought that Thanos had a point.

Has the COVID lesson in exponential growth changed your mind about the effectiveness of killing half the population?

Iím not really certain what youíre asking.

However, snapping away half the population wouldnít really do much anyway. Based on how often the earth doubles its population, weíd be right back at the current population in less than a century.

TomTX

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #186 on: March 30, 2020, 05:26:37 PM »
However, snapping away half the population wouldnít really do much anyway. Based on how often the earth doubles its population, weíd be right back at the current population in less than a century.

You haven't watched modern trendlines.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #187 on: March 30, 2020, 11:25:11 PM »
I was talking with my husband about this. This could be REALLLLY bad here soon. People living paycheck to paycheck will soon not have enough money for the basic groceries. Is the governments plan to make bread lines and soup lines? Now with the virus people would be even afraid for that kind of interaction, and no one would want to staff that.

We were talking the possibility of some civil unrest. When a good portion of people can no longer afford food, let alone housing, utilities, etc. there could be people who have loaded up on guns that decide to take things into their own hands. There are militias out there just waiting to use their firepower. I wouldn't be surprised if the national guards are already prepping for this in some way. It's going to look so shitty when the US can't even provide for the basics for their own citizenry, while the wealthy have all retreated to their chalets with a years worth of food.

I see the possibility of supply chain breakdown in certain sectors. It's hard with all that's going on to not let my brain get into this major funk. Hopefully we will dig ourselves out of this, but this is waaaaaay bigger than 2008.

The 1990s called, they want their militia conspiracy back.

As someone who has been in the National Guard my entire adult life, I can assure you we are not planning for that. We are planning for distributing medical supplies, food, water, etc. which is what they're already doing. Beyond that, defense support to civil authorities, or DSCA, is one of our missions. But it pretty much means providing logistical or similar support - rarely is it to quell civil unrest or law enforcement.


Food pantries are still going to be open along with other forms of charity. We have a neighbor who has been helping out my family by going to the store for some things that can't get delivered. Most people will soon get their helicopter money from the government. Some, like us, will donate it to those in need. Americans are pretty damn generous when it comes to helping others and I've no doubt people will continue to step up.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #188 on: March 31, 2020, 02:40:53 AM »
A week ago someone mentioned exponential spread, then pointed to China and Korea as examples of places where it's still slowly spreading.  China are Korea see less than a dozen COVID-19 deaths a day for the past week - a sharply lower trend from weeks ago.  The data I see show a flattening of the curve more than exponential increase right now.

Although an infected person can't be cured, the virus can be killed by ~75% alcohol sprayed on surfaces.  I thought Korea was overdoing it, now I see spraying in many countries during the lock down - and probably afterwards.  If mask production gets high enough, will enough people wear them to limit the virus' spread?

Korea flattened the curve using tests that require people wait in isolation 2-3 days for the results.  More recently, I see people waiting ~10 hours for results at the location.  And newly approved tests work in 15-45 minutes using existing hospital equipment, which sounds like the ideal combination for mass testing.

Past epidemics ended with detection and quarantine, not vaccines.  If you look at other coronavirus epidemics, MERS ended without a vaccine.  Or skipping over past epidemics smaller than the current 500k cases, I think you wind up at the Spanish Flu epidemic that coincided with WWI (which helped it spread).   Also not ended with a vaccine.  To me, the story is testing, testing, testing.

CDC has already given guidance on health care workers returning to work.  Some places are already dealing with returning to work, to save lives.  What stops the same approach being used elsewhere?  Producing more protective masks and gowns?  More tests?  If the only thing stopping the U.S. economy from getting back to normal is some stuff people want to buy, I'm betting on Americans buying stuff and getting back to work (after the first wave of COVID-19).

The CDC guidelines, in case it's informative:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/healthcare-facilities/hcp-return-work.html

This article about workplaces is more interesting, but unlike the CDC the writer isn't an expert on health care:
https://qz.com/1824506/coronavirus-people-can-return-to-work-if-us-follows-these-steps/

ysette9

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #189 on: March 31, 2020, 02:36:45 PM »
This opinion article is arguing that we wonít be able to produce enough masks or gowns or chemical reagents needed for tests to meet our needs.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/opinion/coronavirus-trump-testing-shortages.html?referringSource=articleShare

That is a frightening figure in my opinion, especially when we donít have any intelligent human being in a leadership position at the federal level.

shotgunwilly

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #190 on: March 31, 2020, 03:27:39 PM »
This opinion article is arguing that we wonít be able to produce enough masks or gowns or chemical reagents needed for tests to meet our needs.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/opinion/coronavirus-trump-testing-shortages.html?referringSource=articleShare

That is a frightening figure in my opinion, especially when we donít have any intelligent human being in a leadership position at the federal level.

Good thing that's a useless opinion article.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #191 on: September 13, 2021, 08:59:17 AM »
$100 to favorite charity.  1,000,000 Deaths in the USA per this website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ , September 12, 2021 end date .  I'll set a reminder?

Assuming that website is still getting updates, absolutely.

Bet on. Fingers crossed that I lose.

$100 to favorite charity.  1,000,000 Deaths in the USA per this website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ , September 12, 2021 end date .  I'll set a reminder?

Assuming that website is still getting updates, absolutely.

Bet on. Fingers crossed that I lose.

@PDXTabs it is September 13 today, the total death count per the website we agreed on states 678,001 (including 9/12) as the total deaths in the USA which is less than 1,000,000.  I will PM you my charity info for the $100.  A lot has happened since this bet was placed 18 months ago.  I'll say that the death count was higher than I thought, I would have taken the bet at 1/2 million... but I'm glad I didn't.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2021, 12:08:59 PM by v8rx7guy »

talltexan

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #192 on: September 13, 2021, 09:03:03 AM »
Indeed, thanks for re-activating the thread.

It's pretty impressive how resilient our Private Sector has been.

BigEasyStache

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #193 on: September 13, 2021, 09:06:37 AM »
Here in Louisiana I can conclusively say that we are at the beginning of a depression.... of the tropical type.

maisymouser

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #194 on: September 13, 2021, 09:22:34 AM »
$100 to favorite charity.  1,000,000 Deaths in the USA per this website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ , September 12, 2021 end date .  I'll set a reminder?

Assuming that website is still getting updates, absolutely.

Bet on. Fingers crossed that I lose.

@PDXTabs it is September 13 today, the total death count per the website we agreed on states 678,001 (including 9/12) as the total deaths in the USA which is less than 1,000,000.  I will PM you my charity info for the $100.  A lot has happened since this bet was placed 18 months ago.  I'll say that the death count was higher than I thought, I would have taken the bet at 1/2 million... but I'm glad I didn't.

Glad I got to see the outcome of this bet. I know the worldometers counter was the chosen metric for the purposes of betting, but I wanted to check out the estimates on *all* excess deaths to see if that number comes out to be <1 million. The CDC estimates 636k-810k surplus deaths associated with COVID, including death due to COVID-19.

So even at the high end we are in better shape than 1 million deaths. But at our current rate we will probably hit that by the beginning of next year, especially factoring in high-travel holidays, COVID fatigue, and spread due to schools. It's a lose lose for everyone.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

ChpBstrd

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #195 on: September 13, 2021, 10:41:28 AM »
I'm glad to have this thread re-activated too. It's a learning experience to see my thought process at the time, the things I was right about, and the things I was wrong about. Here are my benefit-of-hindsight observations:

1) I was probably a bit too influenced by financial media, which has a primary goal of being attention-getting.
2) I kept digging (through financial media) for a unique perspective or a piece of data that everyone else was dismissing. I believed that I would find this info, and it would be my advantage. E.g. the risk of Greece and Italy defaulting, or another mortgage crisis. The crowd was right to ignore these distractions.
3) Something about the process involved with #2 caused me to not dig into the $2.2T CARES Act as much as I should have. I couldn't tell if this was huge or a drop in the bucket compared to the impending economic damage. Obviously in hindsight it was the most important thing, and all I had to know was "don't fight the fed".
4) Even after the CARES Act started pushing stock prices back up, I still hesitated because I was seeing the rapid collapse of industry all around me. Prices seem detached from fundamentals, I told myself. Rising stock prices during a period of deflation? Really?
5) My confidence was shattered by Trump's inept leadership during the early pandemic. The Hoover administration's reaction to the 1929 stock market crash came to mind, and my imagination raced with concerns about how bad it could get. I was right that Trump's ineptitude would cause hundreds of thousands of deaths and cripple the U.S's public health response, but I was wrong about the financial impact of all this suffering (see #3). I thought the rising case count would have something to do with corporate earnings, but in hindsight I was expecting the tail to wag the dog.
6) Biden's no-physical-appearances campaign strategy plus the rising stock market concerned me, and I expected Trump to win re-election. I figured that outcome might guarantee a continued failure to deal with the pandemic in 2021 (see #2). In hindsight, the election wasn't the reason the COVID wave crashed in December/January. It was the span of time without a holiday after New Year's.
7) I foresaw the development of vaccines, but I failed to foresee the speed at which highly effective vaccines were produced, approved, and distributed. At least when the Pfizer results were announced in November 2020, I went from a conservative allocation to all-in, so I salvaged 2020 in the 4th quarter and escaped with a small portfolio gain.
8) I extrapolated COVID's mortality rate and decided in early summer 2020 that the pandemic would probably kill 1M Americans. This estimate has been prescient so far, if you count official COVID deaths plus the excess death rate. However, the pandemic is clearly not done with us yet, so perhaps my estimate will turn out to be low.

Overall, I made some correct estimates about the scope of the pandemic, Trump's incompetence, and the eventuality of vaccines. However, I was mostly wrong about the financial impacts because I underweighted the impact of the CARES Act. This may reflect the difference in quality between my information sources for science information and my information sources for financial information. In the future, I should discount financial journalism, and lean harder on scientific sources like the CDC, FDA, pharma companies, or less speculative forms of news.

talltexan

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #196 on: September 13, 2021, 01:12:18 PM »
Here in Louisiana I can conclusively say that we are at the beginning of a depression.... of the tropical type.

Nice reference to the Alan Jackson song.

PDXTabs

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #197 on: September 14, 2021, 12:57:14 AM »
$100 to favorite charity.  1,000,000 Deaths in the USA per this website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ , September 12, 2021 end date .  I'll set a reminder?

Assuming that website is still getting updates, absolutely.

Bet on. Fingers crossed that I lose.

$100 to favorite charity.  1,000,000 Deaths in the USA per this website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ , September 12, 2021 end date .  I'll set a reminder?

Assuming that website is still getting updates, absolutely.

Bet on. Fingers crossed that I lose.

@PDXTabs it is September 13 today, the total death count per the website we agreed on states 678,001 (including 9/12) as the total deaths in the USA which is less than 1,000,000.  I will PM you my charity info for the $100.  A lot has happened since this bet was placed 18 months ago.  I'll say that the death count was higher than I thought, I would have taken the bet at 1/2 million... but I'm glad I didn't.

PM sent. Happy to lose.

@bbates728, I owe you a beer.

bbates728

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #198 on: September 22, 2021, 07:39:06 AM »
Haha awesome. Happy to see that the death toll was lower than anticipated but damn, that is still a lot of people...

bthewalls

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Re: Are we at the beginning of a depression?
« Reply #199 on: September 27, 2021, 04:07:09 PM »
That figure accurate?