Author Topic: Anyone invested in Tesla?  (Read 49470 times)

zephyr911

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #50 on: May 09, 2016, 10:07:41 AM »
Excuse me?
I admire you a lot on this forum but this comment doesn't make any sense.
Do you take advertisement expenses out of GM profitability because "they don't count on the margin made on a car"?

My statement about "losing money every time they sell a car" is maybe factually incorrect (assuming you mean just on a "product margin" level) and I could acknowledge so

Tesla is still selling for 28 times book value, 6 times sales and is currently losing money

And oh, is taking reservations on models that are not to be available in the foreseeable short term future.

You are possibly correct they do not have a negative product margin on every car they sell (which doesn't mean they don't lose money btw), but it still looks like a terrible terrible investment to me.
As long as we're clear that I object only to the per-vehicle wording, we're on the same page. At that level, they're not just "possibly" profitable, but have been so for years. Casual searching on the Model S shows 17% in 2013, 22% recently, and 30% projected by year-end. The X, a newer, lower-volume, over-engineered monstrosity, runs a few points lower - I see current estimates around 20% and a goal of 25%.

Like I said, I take no issue with your other points, least of all that other costs still add up to net losses, and I didn't claim it was a good investment either.

I do think for anyone invested, or thinking about investing, it's interesting that they are projecting GAAP profitability by Q4. All that capex may be paying off. But as has been pointed out above, so much growth is baked into the share price that the remaining upside is dubious.

nobodyspecial

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #51 on: May 09, 2016, 11:29:22 AM »
Funny - I was thinking how the existing car makers sounded like a few software companies.
Release a new model each year that doesn't do anything new but you have to upgrade because everyone else does.
Locked into a dealer network for service and support
No innovation beyond switching between rounded and square corners every few years

Suddenly surprised when something new happens and their market goes away.

forummm

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #52 on: May 09, 2016, 12:12:25 PM »
Some cold water on this overhyped company.
http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/05/opinion-teslas-self-induced-jet-wash/#p3

Quote
Before the recent earnings release, investors had anticipated a full-year cash burn of about $820 million. Yet, if one counts Tesla's various proposed but re-evaluated capital expenditures, losses could total $1.6 billion.

Looking at Tesla’s macro finance picture, its cash balance through the end of last quarter stood at $1.4 billion. Add in the impressive $400 million-to-date deposits for the Model 3 pre-orders and you get $1.8 billion in cash reserves. Consider the cash burn-through of $1.6 billion—Tesla retains just $200 million, or about $800 million shy of what it once considered a comfortable level to run the company. Acquiring external financing looks inevitable, but Tesla’s already saddled with serious debt. Adding more loans and interest payments and losing more profitability would not be advisable and historically has proven to be the start of so many death spirals in tech, autos, and business.

And the mounting the reports of QC issues. In addition, with the highest-trim preorders being given preference, the "people's Tesla" will not be sold until long after the $7.5k Fed rebate is phased out. Putting it near (or well over) $40k, depending on what you consider essential options. More and more it sounds like a software startup that thinks it can run a car company; control everything, overhype, overpromise, release beta, delay.


That's not how the $7500 credit works. It's per manufacturer, and only starts to phase out once they sell 200k cars. And then it phases out over time. So the first set of Model 3's should have the tax credit available. Now, if you go to reserve a Model 3 today, and have 400,000+ people ahead of you, and if (big if) all those people actually purchase, then you probably would get a very small credit or no credit at all.

Scandium

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #53 on: May 09, 2016, 12:19:02 PM »
Some cold water on this overhyped company.
http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/05/opinion-teslas-self-induced-jet-wash/#p3

Quote
Before the recent earnings release, investors had anticipated a full-year cash burn of about $820 million. Yet, if one counts Tesla's various proposed but re-evaluated capital expenditures, losses could total $1.6 billion.

Looking at Tesla’s macro finance picture, its cash balance through the end of last quarter stood at $1.4 billion. Add in the impressive $400 million-to-date deposits for the Model 3 pre-orders and you get $1.8 billion in cash reserves. Consider the cash burn-through of $1.6 billion—Tesla retains just $200 million, or about $800 million shy of what it once considered a comfortable level to run the company. Acquiring external financing looks inevitable, but Tesla’s already saddled with serious debt. Adding more loans and interest payments and losing more profitability would not be advisable and historically has proven to be the start of so many death spirals in tech, autos, and business.

And the mounting the reports of QC issues. In addition, with the highest-trim preorders being given preference, the "people's Tesla" will not be sold until long after the $7.5k Fed rebate is phased out. Putting it near (or well over) $40k, depending on what you consider essential options. More and more it sounds like a software startup that thinks it can run a car company; control everything, overhype, overpromise, release beta, delay.


That's not how the $7500 credit works. It's per manufacturer, and only starts to phase out once they sell 200k cars. And then it phases out over time. So the first set of Model 3's should have the tax credit available. Now, if you go to reserve a Model 3 today, and have 400,000+ people ahead of you, and if (big if) all those people actually purchase, then you probably would get a very small credit or no credit at all.

It's per manufacturer, over all models. So includes all the model S (120,000 so far. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S#Sales_and_markets. And doing 50,000 per year) and X they've sold, then the highest trim model 3. By the time the person who wanted a $30k tesla gets his/her car the credit will most likely be zero.

forummm

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #54 on: May 09, 2016, 12:33:02 PM »
Some cold water on this overhyped company.
http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/05/opinion-teslas-self-induced-jet-wash/#p3

Quote
Before the recent earnings release, investors had anticipated a full-year cash burn of about $820 million. Yet, if one counts Tesla's various proposed but re-evaluated capital expenditures, losses could total $1.6 billion.

Looking at Tesla’s macro finance picture, its cash balance through the end of last quarter stood at $1.4 billion. Add in the impressive $400 million-to-date deposits for the Model 3 pre-orders and you get $1.8 billion in cash reserves. Consider the cash burn-through of $1.6 billion—Tesla retains just $200 million, or about $800 million shy of what it once considered a comfortable level to run the company. Acquiring external financing looks inevitable, but Tesla’s already saddled with serious debt. Adding more loans and interest payments and losing more profitability would not be advisable and historically has proven to be the start of so many death spirals in tech, autos, and business.

And the mounting the reports of QC issues. In addition, with the highest-trim preorders being given preference, the "people's Tesla" will not be sold until long after the $7.5k Fed rebate is phased out. Putting it near (or well over) $40k, depending on what you consider essential options. More and more it sounds like a software startup that thinks it can run a car company; control everything, overhype, overpromise, release beta, delay.


That's not how the $7500 credit works. It's per manufacturer, and only starts to phase out once they sell 200k cars. And then it phases out over time. So the first set of Model 3's should have the tax credit available. Now, if you go to reserve a Model 3 today, and have 400,000+ people ahead of you, and if (big if) all those people actually purchase, then you probably would get a very small credit or no credit at all.

It's per manufacturer, over all models. So includes all the model S (120,000 so far. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S#Sales_and_markets. And doing 50,000 per year) and X they've sold, then the highest trim model 3. By the time the person who wanted a $30k tesla gets his/her car the credit will most likely be zero.

My understanding is that it excludes international sales and that a bunch (almost half) of S sales are abroad. So unless the 3 is really, really delayed, or S/X domestic sales go way up, the first 3s should get the full credit.

Scandium

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #55 on: May 09, 2016, 12:49:19 PM »
Some cold water on this overhyped company.
http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/05/opinion-teslas-self-induced-jet-wash/#p3

Quote
Before the recent earnings release, investors had anticipated a full-year cash burn of about $820 million. Yet, if one counts Tesla's various proposed but re-evaluated capital expenditures, losses could total $1.6 billion.

Looking at Tesla’s macro finance picture, its cash balance through the end of last quarter stood at $1.4 billion. Add in the impressive $400 million-to-date deposits for the Model 3 pre-orders and you get $1.8 billion in cash reserves. Consider the cash burn-through of $1.6 billion—Tesla retains just $200 million, or about $800 million shy of what it once considered a comfortable level to run the company. Acquiring external financing looks inevitable, but Tesla’s already saddled with serious debt. Adding more loans and interest payments and losing more profitability would not be advisable and historically has proven to be the start of so many death spirals in tech, autos, and business.

And the mounting the reports of QC issues. In addition, with the highest-trim preorders being given preference, the "people's Tesla" will not be sold until long after the $7.5k Fed rebate is phased out. Putting it near (or well over) $40k, depending on what you consider essential options. More and more it sounds like a software startup that thinks it can run a car company; control everything, overhype, overpromise, release beta, delay.


That's not how the $7500 credit works. It's per manufacturer, and only starts to phase out once they sell 200k cars. And then it phases out over time. So the first set of Model 3's should have the tax credit available. Now, if you go to reserve a Model 3 today, and have 400,000+ people ahead of you, and if (big if) all those people actually purchase, then you probably would get a very small credit or no credit at all.

It's per manufacturer, over all models. So includes all the model S (120,000 so far. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S#Sales_and_markets. And doing 50,000 per year) and X they've sold, then the highest trim model 3. By the time the person who wanted a $30k tesla gets his/her car the credit will most likely be zero.

My understanding is that it excludes international sales and that a bunch (almost half) of S sales are abroad. So unless the 3 is really, really delayed, or S/X domestic sales go way up, the first 3s should get the full credit.
Ok. So 120k now, and another 100k over next two years before 3 is out, half domestic is 110k sold. So first ~100k 3s will get the full rebate. Those are likely the highest trims. So at best some of the first $37k model 3s will get a reduced rebate, and quickly none at all.

forummm

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #56 on: May 09, 2016, 01:52:53 PM »
Some cold water on this overhyped company.
http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/05/opinion-teslas-self-induced-jet-wash/#p3

Quote
Before the recent earnings release, investors had anticipated a full-year cash burn of about $820 million. Yet, if one counts Tesla's various proposed but re-evaluated capital expenditures, losses could total $1.6 billion.

Looking at Tesla’s macro finance picture, its cash balance through the end of last quarter stood at $1.4 billion. Add in the impressive $400 million-to-date deposits for the Model 3 pre-orders and you get $1.8 billion in cash reserves. Consider the cash burn-through of $1.6 billion—Tesla retains just $200 million, or about $800 million shy of what it once considered a comfortable level to run the company. Acquiring external financing looks inevitable, but Tesla’s already saddled with serious debt. Adding more loans and interest payments and losing more profitability would not be advisable and historically has proven to be the start of so many death spirals in tech, autos, and business.

And the mounting the reports of QC issues. In addition, with the highest-trim preorders being given preference, the "people's Tesla" will not be sold until long after the $7.5k Fed rebate is phased out. Putting it near (or well over) $40k, depending on what you consider essential options. More and more it sounds like a software startup that thinks it can run a car company; control everything, overhype, overpromise, release beta, delay.


That's not how the $7500 credit works. It's per manufacturer, and only starts to phase out once they sell 200k cars. And then it phases out over time. So the first set of Model 3's should have the tax credit available. Now, if you go to reserve a Model 3 today, and have 400,000+ people ahead of you, and if (big if) all those people actually purchase, then you probably would get a very small credit or no credit at all.

It's per manufacturer, over all models. So includes all the model S (120,000 so far. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S#Sales_and_markets. And doing 50,000 per year) and X they've sold, then the highest trim model 3. By the time the person who wanted a $30k tesla gets his/her car the credit will most likely be zero.

My understanding is that it excludes international sales and that a bunch (almost half) of S sales are abroad. So unless the 3 is really, really delayed, or S/X domestic sales go way up, the first 3s should get the full credit.
Ok. So 120k now, and another 100k over next two years before 3 is out, half domestic is 110k sold. So first ~100k 3s will get the full rebate. Those are likely the highest trims. So at best some of the first $37k model 3s will get a reduced rebate, and quickly none at all.

The credit starts to phase out after 2 quarters after the 200k is reached. It's really hard to say what kind of volume Tesla will be doing then. So it could be a lot of cars. Or not so many. Theoretically it could be a few hundred thousand cars sneaking into that window. But unlikely given their history.

Reepekg

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #57 on: May 09, 2016, 02:31:58 PM »
I saw my first Tesla in 2013 and it took my breath away.  So I went home and bought the stock at $32.  Sold about 6 months later at $95+.

Regretted selling, obviously, but I didn't think it would break $100, much less hit the high $200s.  Bought back in at $200 and am holding.  Wish I would have averaged down when it dipped to $150 but didn't want to keep throwing dry powder at such a speculative play.

We'll see what happens... but the response to the Model 3 was mind boggling.

Would you buy in at today's prices?

No

This. I bought 150 shares TSLA at $30 and sold at $91.

Everybody has already heard of TSLA. You are too late for a speculation play and too early for buying an established business that reliably makes $$$ selling a lot of product.

If you really want to speculate on the EV revolution, look into Lithium miners... they'll be the ones supplying to whoever wins the EV/battery race, regardless of current hype and valuation level.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2016, 02:34:44 PM by Reepekg »

zephyr911

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #58 on: May 09, 2016, 03:02:21 PM »
If you really want to speculate on the EV revolution, look into Lithium miners... they'll be the ones supplying to whoever wins the EV/battery race, regardless of current hype and valuation level.
And right there is another industry that fascinates me but has pretty much been ruled out from an investing standpoint.
There will be a lot of lithium mined over the next couple of decades, that's pretty much guaranteed. But such a high percentage of the lithium in a battery is expected to be recycled that even in an all- or mostly-EV* world, many analysts believe lithium mining (and other methods such as seawater extraction) will dramatically decline at some point in the not-so-distant future as the need for new ore is largely supplanted by packs returned from old vehicles and other applications.
On top of that, the very real risk of all these companies overbuilding their mining capacity and not making profits despite doing large-volume business makes it too much of a speculative play for me. I don't wanna get into anything where I'd not only have to pick winners and losers in an uncertain field but also accurately predict a likely decline of the entire industry in time to get out with profits intact.

*simplifying here, as I realize other applications are in play but EVs represent the fastest-growing and probably largest end-state market. Either way, the same dynamics can be expected to apply.

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #59 on: May 09, 2016, 09:53:18 PM »
Lithium is tricky to recycle from Li-Ion batteries, at the moment it an almost worthless impure waste product from trying to recover the Nickel and Cobalt. Not to say the recovery technology won't improve but Lithium is very cheap and much easier to refine from the ore than from a used battery.

The gold mine is likely to come from the rare earth elements in the motor magnets. The problem is that they are by-products of other mining, so you need to know of a lead or zinc mine in some unfriendly bit of Africa that has a high concentration of these - and be able to buy the rights before anyone else finds out !

And unless Tesla can make induction motors cheap enough for mass produced electrics.


zephyr911

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #60 on: May 10, 2016, 08:30:39 AM »
Lithium is tricky to recycle from Li-Ion batteries, at the moment it an almost worthless impure waste product from trying to recover the Nickel and Cobalt. Not to say the recovery technology won't improve but Lithium is very cheap and much easier to refine from the ore than from a used battery.

The gold mine is likely to come from the rare earth elements in the motor magnets. The problem is that they are by-products of other mining, so you need to know of a lead or zinc mine in some unfriendly bit of Africa that has a high concentration of these - and be able to buy the rights before anyone else finds out !

And unless Tesla can make induction motors cheap enough for mass produced electrics.
I did a little searching.
From https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/no-rare-earth-metals-model-s
*******************************************************************
"Tesla does not use rare earth metals in our battery or motor. Typically, rare earth metals apply to DC motors, which use magnets. One of the reasons we use an AC induction motor is it does not require magnets, which often contain the rare earth metals."

forummm

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #61 on: May 10, 2016, 09:40:25 AM »
If you really want to speculate on the EV revolution, look into Lithium miners... they'll be the ones supplying to whoever wins the EV/battery race, regardless of current hype and valuation level.

Selling a commodity is not usually a high margin business. There are exceptions, but only when demand is incredibly high and insensitive to cost, supply is very constrained (or monopolistically held), and the particular firm has a cost advantage over competitors (which is often hard to maintain).

nobodyspecial

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #62 on: May 10, 2016, 03:04:46 PM »
And unless Tesla can make induction motors cheap enough for mass produced electrics.
I did a little searching.
From https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/no-rare-earth-metals-model-s
*******************************************************************
"Tesla does not use rare earth metals in our battery or motor. Typically, rare earth metals apply to DC motors, which use magnets. One of the reasons we use an AC induction motor is it does not require magnets, which often contain the rare earth metals."
Tesla uses induction motors for it's high perfomance (and high cost) models - as do all the other electric cars.
The cheaper, lower performance, longer range models (leaf etc) use brushless DC with permanent magnets (with rare earths)

I understand why you would use induction motors for max performance, not sure what the issue is in not using them in low end vehicles, whether it is just cost or some efficency issue ?



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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #63 on: May 10, 2016, 03:16:21 PM »
And unless Tesla can make induction motors cheap enough for mass produced electrics.
I did a little searching.
From https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/no-rare-earth-metals-model-s
*******************************************************************
"Tesla does not use rare earth metals in our battery or motor. Typically, rare earth metals apply to DC motors, which use magnets. One of the reasons we use an AC induction motor is it does not require magnets, which often contain the rare earth metals."
Tesla uses induction motors for it's high perfomance (and high cost) models - as do all the other electric cars.
The cheaper, lower performance, longer range models (leaf etc) use brushless DC with permanent magnets (with rare earths)

I understand why you would use induction motors for max performance, not sure what the issue is in not using them in low end vehicles, whether it is just cost or some efficency issue ?
https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/induction-versus-dc-brushless-motors?_ga=1.225679004.705366378.1449593580

I gather from this article that the induction motors are cheaper to build than burshless DC, but owing to more complex controller design, more expensive to develop.  So probably a cost thing - Nissan didn't want to sink too much into designing the motors for what might have been a failed experiment.  Tesla, on the other hand, is banking on electric all the way, so making the bigger investment up-front on the induction motors makes sense for them, and could lead to a longer-term cost advantage over companies that are using the DC motors.  Tesla is also making performance / luxury cars, so motor performance is even more important for them than other manufacturers.

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #64 on: May 10, 2016, 08:42:30 PM »
That's what I didn't understand. Induction motors have got to be cheaper once you have the controller design.
The R&D cost of a control circuit is minuscule to the likes of Toyota or VW so I imagined there must be some efficiency/size advantage for low power motors.
I suppose the toe-in-the-water electric cars were built entirely from off the shelf parts - including DC motors.

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #65 on: May 14, 2016, 11:13:21 AM »
Batteries will be a capital-intensive, low-margin, commodity business. Tesla is priced like a mega-growth industry disruptor. If they just turn into a battery factory, the shares will drop 90%. Tesla's upsides would be 1) a valuable brand (but others have good brands too), 2) autonomous driving technology (but Apple, Google, and a number of car manufacturers are also developing this), and 3) a first-mover advantage. But first movers often aren't the ones who make bank on a new industry. Google was maybe the 10th major search engine. Apple wasn't the first to make phones. Microsoft wasn't the first software company. Etc. The firms that make a ton of money are the ones that come along and transform it and do it better. It's much easier to improve an existing idea than create something from scratch. And anything Tesla does that is successful will be copied by others.
I think the difference with search and cell phones is that they weren't monolithic industries, at least not compared to auto manufacturing. In the open ocean (new industry), it's easier for companies to come out of nowhere and take the lead. Auto manufacturing/sales have much higher barriers to entry, both in terms of regulations and capital requirements, and are very well established.

EVs in the existing manufacturer/dealer network are also very disruptive because they have the potential to hit the repair side of dealer profit centers and the sales side of manufacturing profit centers. My sense is that manufacturers/dealers view competition with each other on EV production as a very possible lose-lose situation. They have to spend massive amounts on tooling, research, and capital, and the end result could be a product that hurts the profit centers of their customers (dealers) because of better reliability/less maintenance, and may also reduce sales down the road as battery energy density increases and outside companies start producing replacement battery packs.

I don't think we're at that point yet, given that most EVs have < 100 miles of range and a bunch are still built on platforms designed for ICEs, but once manufacturers hit a good combination of range, charging speed, and price, I could see battery replacements take a chunk out of new car sales. I think Tesla could hit that mark with the model 3 in the ~$30k-40k price range, and if they do, there's less incentive to purchase a new car compared to getting a new battery pack and driving your current EV for another decade or so.

People also don't realize yet that Powerwall is a failure. The batteries are just too expensive for it to be a viable product yet. Maybe in 5 or 15 years.
I wouldn't go that far. On one hand, people do overestimate the impact of new tech. On the other hand, the powerwall is the least expensive form of warrantied battery storage out there for someone who uses it daily, which is why there's so much excitement about it in the industry. It's not to the point where you can drop a bunch of them in your home along with some PV panels and pay less that what you would with a grid connection, but in some places (CA for instance) it's getting close. If I were building a home right now, I'd take a good hard look at self generation (demand side management + PV panels + a powerwall of few + a backup generator) before I paid for a grid hookup.


Edit - I'm not saying that Tesla won't fail, especially considering the challenges they're taking on, but there's a good chance they'll succeed, which is why there stock is where it is IMO. Even if I ignored that Paypal, SolarCity, SpaceX, and Tesla have already been pretty successful, Tesla's success has correlated pretty well with the volume of "Watch out Tesla!" articles I see in online media. If that trend holds, the 3 will do very well. ;)

https://teslamondo.com/2014/05/25/yipes-watch-out-tesla-move-over-tesla/
« Last Edit: May 14, 2016, 11:19:05 AM by DarinC »

FINate

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #66 on: May 16, 2016, 05:16:11 PM »
Edit - I'm not saying that Tesla won't fail, especially considering the challenges they're taking on, but there's a good chance they'll succeed, which is why there stock is where it is IMO. Even if I ignored that Paypal, SolarCity, SpaceX, and Tesla have already been pretty successful, Tesla's success has correlated pretty well with the volume of "Watch out Tesla!" articles I see in online media. If that trend holds, the 3 will do very well. ;)

Sure, but the question being discussed here is whether or not Tesla is a good investment at current valuation. It's possible that they succeed in their business while the stock underperforms because the expected success is already priced in.

DarinC

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #67 on: May 19, 2016, 07:06:34 AM »
It's definitely possible. The thing is, they're expanding in a way that IMO could put them close to a GM or Toyota in a decade or two, and they make batteries on top of all that. I have no idea if they'll succeed, but if they do, I think current prices are under-valued. Putting it another way, current prices already have the (significant) odds of them failing built in.

forummm

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #68 on: May 19, 2016, 09:42:46 AM »
It's definitely possible. The thing is, they're expanding in a way that IMO could put them close to a GM or Toyota in a decade or two, and they make batteries on top of all that. I have no idea if they'll succeed, but if they do, I think current prices are under-valued. Putting it another way, current prices already have the (significant) odds of them failing built in.

If they succeed, what would you think they'd be worth? They are already worth almost as much as GM.

DarinC

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #69 on: May 19, 2016, 08:06:05 PM »
That's a tough question. If they can build ~350k cars/year at ~$50k/car and maintain their 20% profit, that translates to ~$3.5 billion in profit, which is apparently enough to justify ~$500-1000/share.

https://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/what-is-tesla-motors-really-worth

I dunno if that'll happen, but Tesla's pushing things pretty hard.

FINate

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #70 on: May 20, 2016, 12:20:42 AM »
I wouldn't assume they can maintain 20% profit margin in the mass market - all the big automakers have lower margins. You can be sure other automakers will enter the market with competitive EV offerings, such as the Chevy Bolt. 

I'll say it again: Tesla is priced for perfection. If it can build 350k cars/year, and it can continue charging $50k per vehicle (btw - the Model 3 comes in lower than this), and it can maintain 20% profit margin then it will justify a higher price. However, I don't see any big barriers to entry for other brands to flood this market and drive down margins. The graveyards of industry are full of companies that were early innovators that many expected would become immensely profitable, only to later succumb to competitive pressures as others entered the market.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2016, 12:23:57 AM by FINate »

Vagabond76

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #71 on: May 20, 2016, 05:27:21 AM »
So Tesla announced it would fund the next model product, Elon Musk's taxes, and a donation to charity by diluting current shareholders with another secondary offering.

By owning shares in this company, you are not changing the world. You are subjecting yourself to the whims of management. Most everyone in here is indirectly invested in Tesla through an index fund. That is enough of an investment in the company for most people.

TheStachery

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #72 on: May 20, 2016, 06:45:07 AM »
According to Bloomberg, the adjusted total of reservations received comes in at 373,000. This after about 8,000 customers canceled their orders, and the company removed another 4,200 duplicate orders from the list.

Greenpez

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #73 on: May 20, 2016, 07:20:38 AM »
So Tesla announced it would fund the next model product, Elon Musk's taxes, and a donation to charity by diluting current shareholders with another secondary offering.

By owning shares in this company, you are not changing the world. You are subjecting yourself to the whims of management. Most everyone in here is indirectly invested in Tesla through an index fund. That is enough of an investment in the company for most people.

If, and it's a huge if, this offering results in tesla hitting its production goals I don't think most shareholders will really care. Musk's involvement most likely has more to do with him not wanting another paypal to happen.

 I agree though that buying shares now is an emotional decision unless you've done a lot of DD and really believe the company will take off.

Vagabond76

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #74 on: May 20, 2016, 07:49:16 AM »
So Tesla announced it would fund the next model product, Elon Musk's taxes, and a donation to charity by diluting current shareholders with another secondary offering.

By owning shares in this company, you are not changing the world. You are subjecting yourself to the whims of management. Most everyone in here is indirectly invested in Tesla through an index fund. That is enough of an investment in the company for most people.

If, and it's a huge if, this offering results in tesla hitting its production goals I don't think most shareholders will really care. Musk's involvement most likely has more to do with him not wanting another paypal to happen.

 I agree though that buying shares now is an emotional decision unless you've done a lot of DD and really believe the company will take off.

???

TheStachery

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #75 on: May 20, 2016, 07:51:03 AM »
My justification:
You cannot ignore the fact that people love this car.  The demand is huge.
They are just as close to anyone else in the self driving car race.
Battery tech, not just for the cars, but tapping into a home/solar market.
They are making some good hiring decisions, they just hired the Audi exec for production.  Audi, if you haven't noticed, was kicking ass in the last several years.

This will be played out fro the next several years, and if you like playing the market, buy on the bad news, (missed production targets) and sell on the good news.  or buy and hold, like me.  If the stock drops below 200 again, i'm buying another lot.


Greenpez

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #76 on: May 20, 2016, 07:54:57 AM »
So Tesla announced it would fund the next model product, Elon Musk's taxes, and a donation to charity by diluting current shareholders with another secondary offering.

By owning shares in this company, you are not changing the world. You are subjecting yourself to the whims of management. Most everyone in here is indirectly invested in Tesla through an index fund. That is enough of an investment in the company for most people.

If, and it's a huge if, this offering results in tesla hitting its production goals I don't think most shareholders will really care. Musk's involvement most likely has more to do with him not wanting another paypal to happen.

 I agree though that buying shares now is an emotional decision unless you've done a lot of DD and really believe the company will take off.

???

Musk was in a situation where he didn't own enough stock to control the outcome of the company. He doesn't want that to happen again.

forummm

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #77 on: May 20, 2016, 09:44:37 AM »
That's a tough question. If they can build ~350k cars/year at ~$50k/car and maintain their 20% profit, that translates to ~$3.5 billion in profit, which is apparently enough to justify ~$500-1000/share.

https://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/what-is-tesla-motors-really-worth

I dunno if that'll happen, but Tesla's pushing things pretty hard.
They can get 20% profit margin on a luxury car that's really a one-of-a-kind offering. It's a statement car for people who can afford to make a $120k statement. You can't do that on the $35k car level. And they will be competing at that price point against many other manufacturers, which will also drive margins down. EVs will be more like regular ICEs in terms of how common they are. That's Tesla's goal BTW--not to make a ton of money.

Vagabond76

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #78 on: May 20, 2016, 09:53:25 AM »
So Tesla announced it would fund the next model product, Elon Musk's taxes, and a donation to charity by diluting current shareholders with another secondary offering.

By owning shares in this company, you are not changing the world. You are subjecting yourself to the whims of management. Most everyone in here is indirectly invested in Tesla through an index fund. That is enough of an investment in the company for most people.

If, and it's a huge if, this offering results in tesla hitting its production goals I don't think most shareholders will really care. Musk's involvement most likely has more to do with him not wanting another paypal to happen.

 I agree though that buying shares now is an emotional decision unless you've done a lot of DD and really believe the company will take off.

???

Musk was in a situation where he didn't own enough stock to control the outcome of the company. He doesn't want that to happen again.

Complete insider control is a huge turnoff for me.

forummm

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #79 on: May 20, 2016, 10:16:11 AM »
So Tesla announced it would fund the next model product, Elon Musk's taxes, and a donation to charity by diluting current shareholders with another secondary offering.

By owning shares in this company, you are not changing the world. You are subjecting yourself to the whims of management. Most everyone in here is indirectly invested in Tesla through an index fund. That is enough of an investment in the company for most people.

If, and it's a huge if, this offering results in tesla hitting its production goals I don't think most shareholders will really care. Musk's involvement most likely has more to do with him not wanting another paypal to happen.

 I agree though that buying shares now is an emotional decision unless you've done a lot of DD and really believe the company will take off.

???

Musk was in a situation where he didn't own enough stock to control the outcome of the company. He doesn't want that to happen again.

Complete insider control is a huge turnoff for me.
How much does Musk control?

Zuckerberg's complete stranglehold on FB is one of many reasons I wouldn't be excited about buying it. He even just changed the share structure to allow him to part with economic value of his shares without losing control of voting shares.

Greenpez

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #80 on: May 20, 2016, 11:14:15 AM »

How much does Musk control?

Zuckerberg's complete stranglehold on FB is one of many reasons I wouldn't be excited about buying it. He even just changed the share structure to allow him to part with economic value of his shares without losing control of voting shares.

 A quick google search says ~30%, given the percentage of the new offering he's buying, I'd say thats fairly accurate. I would say it's very important to him to maintain control of his companies. Which is one reason space x prolly won't go public.

DarinC

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #81 on: May 20, 2016, 12:32:56 PM »
They can get 20% profit margin on a luxury car that's really a one-of-a-kind offering. It's a statement car for people who can afford to make a $120k statement. You can't do that on the $35k car level. And they will be competing at that price point against many other manufacturers, which will also drive margins down. EVs will be more like regular ICEs in terms of how common they are. That's Tesla's goal BTW--not to make a ton of money.
Maybe. People said the same thing about 20% margins on the Model S before they built it, and they may not have had those margins at launch, but they do now even though. If Tesla can roll out the 3, the closest competition is the Chevy Bolt. The specs on the Bolt look good too, but GM probably won't have the same options (auto-pilot, supercharging, etc...).

While other manufacturers could make comparable EVs with similar features, they haven't so far, possibly because those EVs can hurt their existing business model. The difference between that delay and Tesla's aggressive expansion is where Tesla's competitive advantage is.

It could be that their average sales price is $120k with the high end Model X sales, but a base S starts at $71.5k + TTL - the Federal tax credit - state rebates if they exist - the difference in the cost of gas/electricity +/- the difference in maintenance costs. They're still very expensive cars that aren't within the reach of the average driver, but someone doesn't have to shell out $120k to get one.

https://www.thestreet.com/story/13198798/1/the-average-tesla-driver-isnt-who-youd-expect.html

forummm

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #82 on: May 20, 2016, 01:35:48 PM »
The Leaf will also be 200ish miles by then for at least one option or trim combination. They are already stepping up the battery to 30kWh for the 2017 model for SL/SV.

FINate

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #83 on: May 20, 2016, 02:36:18 PM »
EVs will 'disrupt' the auto industry which, I think, is part of the reason the big automakers have dragged their feet on EVs. So I'm glad Tesla has forced them to get serious by establishing the market.

That said, I don't think this is why the big automakers don't include high-end features on their EVs. Instead, I believe they've determined that the $30k market is not willing to pay for luxury features. After subsidies, the Model 3 will be priced at $35k whereas the Bolt can be had for as little as $30k. While it's true that you get more functionality for the Model 3, what matters is whether or not this creates enough value for consumers to justify the price difference. These cars are getting into economy car segment territory, where buyers are primarily interested in getting from point A to point B cheaply. Is it worth the extra $5k for these consumers to have autopilot or supercharging for a car they primarily use on a predictable commute or short trips around town?

DarinC

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #84 on: May 20, 2016, 11:05:59 PM »
The Leaf will also be 200ish miles by then for at least one option or trim combination. They are already stepping up the battery to 30kWh for the 2017 model for SL/SV.
I'm hoping the 3 will force them to bring down prices on the lower capacity models. I'd love to see them offer a ~30kWh next gen leaf for < $25k.

bradleylsmith

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #85 on: May 21, 2016, 02:21:48 AM »
EVs will 'disrupt' the auto industry which, I think, is part of the reason the big automakers have dragged their feet on EVs. So I'm glad Tesla has forced them to get serious by establishing the market.

That said, I don't think this is why the big automakers don't include high-end features on their EVs. Instead, I believe they've determined that the $30k market is not willing to pay for luxury features. After subsidies, the Model 3 will be priced at $35k whereas the Bolt can be had for as little as $30k. While it's true that you get more functionality for the Model 3, what matters is whether or not this creates enough value for consumers to justify the price difference. These cars are getting into economy car segment territory, where buyers are primarily interested in getting from point A to point B cheaply. Is it worth the extra $5k for these consumers to have autopilot or supercharging for a car they primarily use on a predictable commute or short trips around town?

Model 3 is $35k before incentives not after. It is the cheaper of the two options, on base price anyway.

forummm

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #86 on: May 21, 2016, 07:21:11 AM »
The Leaf will also be 200ish miles by then for at least one option or trim combination. They are already stepping up the battery to 30kWh for the 2017 model for SL/SV.
I'm hoping the 3 will force them to bring down prices on the lower capacity models. I'd love to see them offer a ~30kWh next gen leaf for < $25k.

I think their pricing (including the incentives) is as competitive as they can be today. But batteries keep getting cheaper, so that will help bring down the cost by itself. I paid $25k to Nissan for my 24kWh Leafs 2 years ago (both of them). And they gave me 0% financing on top of that as well (and I got tax credits from the state and feds). I think the battery cost will drop enough such that the 30 will cost what a 24 did back then. They are limiting the 30 to the more expensive trims now, but I imagine that the 30 or larger will be the base trim in the future and the 48 or 60 will be the top trim.

FINate

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #87 on: May 21, 2016, 09:19:41 AM »
EVs will 'disrupt' the auto industry which, I think, is part of the reason the big automakers have dragged their feet on EVs. So I'm glad Tesla has forced them to get serious by establishing the market.

That said, I don't think this is why the big automakers don't include high-end features on their EVs. Instead, I believe they've determined that the $30k market is not willing to pay for luxury features. After subsidies, the Model 3 will be priced at $35k whereas the Bolt can be had for as little as $30k. While it's true that you get more functionality for the Model 3, what matters is whether or not this creates enough value for consumers to justify the price difference. These cars are getting into economy car segment territory, where buyers are primarily interested in getting from point A to point B cheaply. Is it worth the extra $5k for these consumers to have autopilot or supercharging for a car they primarily use on a predictable commute or short trips around town?

Model 3 is $35k before incentives not after. It is the cheaper of the two options, on base price anyway.

So it is, until the incentives phase out once the manufacturer has sold 200k subsidized vehicles I think.

dandarc

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #88 on: May 21, 2016, 11:04:23 AM »
EVs will 'disrupt' the auto industry which, I think, is part of the reason the big automakers have dragged their feet on EVs. So I'm glad Tesla has forced them to get serious by establishing the market.

That said, I don't think this is why the big automakers don't include high-end features on their EVs. Instead, I believe they've determined that the $30k market is not willing to pay for luxury features. After subsidies, the Model 3 will be priced at $35k whereas the Bolt can be had for as little as $30k. While it's true that you get more functionality for the Model 3, what matters is whether or not this creates enough value for consumers to justify the price difference. These cars are getting into economy car segment territory, where buyers are primarily interested in getting from point A to point B cheaply. Is it worth the extra $5k for these consumers to have autopilot or supercharging for a car they primarily use on a predictable commute or short trips around town?

Model 3 is $35k before incentives not after. It is the cheaper of the two options, on base price anyway.

So it is, until the incentives phase out once the manufacturer has sold 200k subsidized vehicles I think.
Model 3 base is $35K.  If you happen to luck out and get the federal subsidy (probably requires your reservation to already be in), then your net cost might be $27,500.

Chevy Bolt base is $37,500.  You're likely get the federal subsidy, and your net cost might therefore be $30,000.

So the Bolt, absent subsidies, is the more expensive vehicle.  A subsidized Bolt is likely less expensive than an unsubsidized Model 3.  Once the subsidized / unsubsidized differential phases out, the Bolt is more expensive, absent a price change.

FINate

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #89 on: May 21, 2016, 11:13:37 AM »
EVs will 'disrupt' the auto industry which, I think, is part of the reason the big automakers have dragged their feet on EVs. So I'm glad Tesla has forced them to get serious by establishing the market.

That said, I don't think this is why the big automakers don't include high-end features on their EVs. Instead, I believe they've determined that the $30k market is not willing to pay for luxury features. After subsidies, the Model 3 will be priced at $35k whereas the Bolt can be had for as little as $30k. While it's true that you get more functionality for the Model 3, what matters is whether or not this creates enough value for consumers to justify the price difference. These cars are getting into economy car segment territory, where buyers are primarily interested in getting from point A to point B cheaply. Is it worth the extra $5k for these consumers to have autopilot or supercharging for a car they primarily use on a predictable commute or short trips around town?



Model 3 is $35k before incentives not after. It is the cheaper of the two options, on base price anyway.

So it is, until the incentives phase out once the manufacturer has sold 200k subsidized vehicles I think.
Model 3 base is $35K.  If you happen to luck out and get the federal subsidy (probably requires your reservation to already be in), then your net cost might be $27,500.

Chevy Bolt base is $37,500.  You're likely get the federal subsidy, and your net cost might therefore be $30,000.

So the Bolt, absent subsidies, is the more expensive vehicle.  A subsidized Bolt is likely less expensive than an unsubsidized Model 3.  Once the subsidized / unsubsidized differential phases out, the Bolt is more expensive, absent a price change.

I wonder if they will adjust prices as the subsidies phase out. As a consumer I wonder how you're supposed to make a price comparison if either company is close to the phase out? I suppose with the Bolt it may be possible to negotiate somewhat on the price.

forummm

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #90 on: May 21, 2016, 11:16:42 AM »
I think it's impossible to know what the exact prices are of these cars that are not currently available to buy and drive home. Announced prices (and availability timelines) may shift somewhat.

bradleylsmith

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #91 on: May 21, 2016, 09:43:24 PM »
the idea that the two are even close to each other in price makes the tesla that much better of a car. The bolt's subsidy isn't going to last long either. It may actually be less - as of Dec. 2015 they were at 95,000 sales that count against them and they are the closest carmaker to having their credit expire.

forummm

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #92 on: May 22, 2016, 08:12:07 AM »
the idea that the two are even close to each other in price makes the tesla that much better of a car. The bolt's subsidy isn't going to last long either. It may actually be less - as of Dec. 2015 they were at 95,000 sales that count against them and they are the closest carmaker to having their credit expire.

We'll see. The 3 probably won't be as tricked out as the S or X. And may be harder to buy for a long time. I hope the 3 is great and they can make (and sell) 500k a year starting in 2018. But who knows.

TheStachery

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #93 on: June 02, 2016, 09:06:20 AM »
Has anyone looked into Mobileye?  It appears that Tesla and other manufactures use their technologies.  This maybe the company with the brains behind the self driving / automation. 

a1smith

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #94 on: June 03, 2016, 11:05:18 PM »
I hope the 3 is great and they can make (and sell) 500k a year starting in 2018. But who knows.

There is no way Tesla will make and sell 500K Model 3's in 2018.  The design isn't even locked down yet.  No capacity to build that many cars and 2-3 year time frame to build it.

forummm

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #95 on: June 04, 2016, 02:24:04 PM »
I hope the 3 is great and they can make (and sell) 500k a year starting in 2018. But who knows.

There is no way Tesla will make and sell 500K Model 3's in 2018.  The design isn't even locked down yet.  No capacity to build that many cars and 2-3 year time frame to build it.

I agree. The "I hope" was in the context of wishing the company well right after I had been casting a lot of doubt about their future prospects and the wisdom of investing in their stock. I want them to succeed. But doubt that they will be as successful and as quickly as Musk's stated goals.

DarinC

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #96 on: June 11, 2016, 05:30:39 PM »
Ok. So 120k now, and another 100k over next two years before 3 is out, half domestic is 110k sold. So first ~100k 3s will get the full rebate. Those are likely the highest trims. So at best some of the first $37k model 3s will get a reduced rebate, and quickly none at all.
It's possible, but Elon has I tink alluded to structuring vehicle production so that (most? all?) reservation holders will see the full tax credit. This idea lines up pretty well with their plans to quickly ramp production.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/716709914911989760

forummm

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #97 on: June 12, 2016, 01:13:06 PM »
Ok. So 120k now, and another 100k over next two years before 3 is out, half domestic is 110k sold. So first ~100k 3s will get the full rebate. Those are likely the highest trims. So at best some of the first $37k model 3s will get a reduced rebate, and quickly none at all.
It's possible, but Elon has I tink alluded to structuring vehicle production so that (most? all?) reservation holders will see the full tax credit. This idea lines up pretty well with their plans to quickly ramp production.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/716709914911989760

His focus is solely to get as many cars made and delivered as quickly as possible. If it came to the point that they could hold back 500 cars and deliver them the first day of the next quarter, they might do that. But otherwise they just need to deliver cars ASAP. They have major cash burn and will continue to for years. They need to keep the stock price as high as possible because of the need to do equity raises (sell lots of new share to raise cash for business operation). That means keeping Wall Street happy. Which means hitting sales and revenue targets. Maximizing the number of cars that qualify for the tax credit could also help increase sales. So I'm sure it's something they would like to do. But they have a lot of pressures on them.

forummm

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #98 on: June 21, 2016, 07:50:18 PM »
Let's hope no one is invested in TSLA. If so, Musk has decided to screw you by buying SCTY. One business that's way overvalued and burning cash and will need to do a number of more equity raises in order to meet incredibly aggressive and expensive goals is buying another business that's even more overvalued and burning cash and has lots of debt coming due and whose business is dying and has massive liabilities that the market doesn't understand. That purchase is also diluting the TSLA stock, which will further increase the future dilutions that will occur to continue the equity raises. Disaster. If TSLA's board has any sense they will veto this stupid acquisition.

mrpercentage

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #99 on: June 21, 2016, 07:57:17 PM »
Share holders aside, let's give him credit. Maybe he does have the capability to completely take a house of the grid for an affordable price but only by using the synergy of this acquisition. I give Musk credit but my money isn't on the line. This once again proves to me that only dividend companies really care about share holders. Non-dividend care only about their own growth or prospects