Author Topic: Anyone invested in Tesla?  (Read 49440 times)

webcat86

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Anyone invested in Tesla?
« on: May 05, 2016, 12:20:31 PM »
As the title says really. Now that they're hitting the mass market and have obvious differentiation to the rest of the market in a way that is quite convincing they won't be copied or shut out of the market, I'm tempted to pick up a few shares. Although they've averaged similar prices to now for a couple of years they do still seem expensive, which is my main reservation. On the other hand there's clearly plenty of potential upside.

And just to be clear, this will be a lump sum investment to be held long term. So it's not a short-term gamble on an individual stock, which I won't do.

Dollar Slice

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2016, 12:24:04 PM »
I have a little bit (10 shares) just for fun. It's been so up and down lately I feel like I should dump it just for giving me stress... :-) 

forummm

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2016, 12:33:44 PM »
I think it would be a bad investment. It's overpriced. It's also highly speculative. A lot of things would have to go really right for it to grow into the valuation that the stock currently has. If you want to buy a share for fun, OK. But don't do it as an investment.

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2016, 12:38:39 PM »
Bought some in fall 2013 at $176.  While cool, it isn't about the car, it is about the batteries.  If they can contine to improve that technology they will be able to make so much "green" technology viable. 
« Last Edit: May 05, 2016, 01:19:41 PM by MissNancyPryor »

webcat86

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2016, 12:46:59 PM »
Bought some in fall 2013 at $176.  Whole cool, it isn't about the car, it is about the batteries.  If they can contine to improve that technology they will be able to make so much "green" technology viable.

That's exactly what I was thinking. Their current achievement shows they're more than about the car, so even if that falls they'll continue. Like Samsung supplies Apple with phone screens, Tesla could conceivably supply batteries to other manufacturers or make the super chargers etc

webcat86

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2016, 12:47:38 PM »
I think it would be a bad investment. It's overpriced. It's also highly speculative. A lot of things would have to go really right for it to grow into the valuation that the stock currently has. If you want to buy a share for fun, OK. But don't do it as an investment.

It'd be a 20-30 year horizon hold unless there was a reason within that time to sell up

zephyr911

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2016, 12:50:13 PM »
Very speculative. I bought 10 shares at $100 and sold at $140, happy to collect a small profit and leave the volatility to others. Don't regret it.

I love what the company is doing, but the stock valuation is insane - up or down 5-10% on even minor news just isn't my cup of tea. To the extent that I do buy individual stocks, they tend to be more predictable ones with more tangible value to stabilize prices.

webcat86

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2016, 12:59:36 PM »
Very speculative. I bought 10 shares at $100 and sold at $140, happy to collect a small profit and leave the volatility to others. Don't regret it.

I love what the company is doing, but the stock valuation is insane - up or down 5-10% on even minor news just isn't my cup of tea. To the extent that I do buy individual stocks, they tend to be more predictable ones with more tangible value to stabilize prices.

The valuation is definitely mad. But when would it come down? The reaction to the tesla 3 was amazing

Abe

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2016, 01:02:05 PM »
I bought some shares and haven't looked at the price until this post...made a 50% profit! I'll leave it for now, maybe they'll start paying dividends in 50 years. All my real long-term investing is in broad-based portfolios.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2016, 01:04:10 PM by Abe »

forummm

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #9 on: May 05, 2016, 01:06:51 PM »
Bought some in fall 2013 at $176.  Whole cool, it isn't about the car, it is about the batteries.  If they can contine to improve that technology they will be able to make so much "green" technology viable.

That's exactly what I was thinking. Their current achievement shows they're more than about the car, so even if that falls they'll continue. Like Samsung supplies Apple with phone screens, Tesla could conceivably supply batteries to other manufacturers or make the super chargers etc

Batteries will be a capital-intensive, low-margin, commodity business. Tesla is priced like a mega-growth industry disruptor. If they just turn into a battery factory, the shares will drop 90%. Tesla's upsides would be 1) a valuable brand (but others have good brands too), 2) autonomous driving technology (but Apple, Google, and a number of car manufacturers are also developing this), and 3) a first-mover advantage. But first movers often aren't the ones who make bank on a new industry. Google was maybe the 10th major search engine. Apple wasn't the first to make phones. Microsoft wasn't the first software company. Etc. The firms that make a ton of money are the ones that come along and transform it and do it better. It's much easier to improve an existing idea than create something from scratch. And anything Tesla does that is successful will be copied by others.

Very speculative. I bought 10 shares at $100 and sold at $140, happy to collect a small profit and leave the volatility to others. Don't regret it.

I love what the company is doing, but the stock valuation is insane - up or down 5-10% on even minor news just isn't my cup of tea. To the extent that I do buy individual stocks, they tend to be more predictable ones with more tangible value to stabilize prices.

The valuation is definitely mad. But when would it come down? The reaction to the tesla 3 was amazing

It may not come down. But they probably will need to raise $1.5 billion soon for capital expenditures. That will probably be an equity raise (selling a ton more stock, and diluting existing shareholders). So that could be one catalyst. But it could also just sit at that valuation for a long time (in which case, bonds would be better). Or it could hang out at that valuation until there are delays with the model 3 (and there will be delays) or some other bad news comes out and people lose faith. Or people begin to buy Bolts or Leafs with bigger batteries, etc. There are many negative catalysts pending.

People also don't realize yet that Powerwall is a failure. The batteries are just too expensive for it to be a viable product yet. Maybe in 5 or 15 years.

zephyr911

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #10 on: May 05, 2016, 01:16:01 PM »

The valuation is definitely mad. But when would it come down? The reaction to the tesla 3 was amazing

Pretty well answered by forummm there. I can only add this: I can't say if it's overvalued or undervalued, and neither can the analysts. Look at the price targets. I wish them nothing but success, and I plan on owning their product eventually (subject to the right financial achievements first) but I don't have the stomach to pin my fortunes to that rollercoaster.

My latest buys are power production companies I've watched for years as they manage finances conservatively, add high-quality income-producing assets at good prices, and consistently grow their income while maintaining a cushion for hard times. Neither one will ever double in a year, but they'll probably still be steadily increasing dividends when you and I are dead.

webcat86

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #11 on: May 05, 2016, 01:16:13 PM »
Bought some in fall 2013 at $176.  Whole cool, it isn't about the car, it is about the batteries.  If they can contine to improve that technology they will be able to make so much "green" technology viable.

That's exactly what I was thinking. Their current achievement shows they're more than about the car, so even if that falls they'll continue. Like Samsung supplies Apple with phone screens, Tesla could conceivably supply batteries to other manufacturers or make the super chargers etc

Batteries will be a capital-intensive, low-margin, commodity business. Tesla is priced like a mega-growth industry disruptor. If they just turn into a battery factory, the shares will drop 90%. Tesla's upsides would be 1) a valuable brand (but others have good brands too), 2) autonomous driving technology (but Apple, Google, and a number of car manufacturers are also developing this), and 3) a first-mover advantage. But first movers often aren't the ones who make bank on a new industry. Google was maybe the 10th major search engine. Apple wasn't the first to make phones. Microsoft wasn't the first software company. Etc. The firms that make a ton of money are the ones that come along and transform it and do it better. It's much easier to improve an existing idea than create something from scratch. And anything Tesla does that is successful will be copied by others.

Very speculative. I bought 10 shares at $100 and sold at $140, happy to collect a small profit and leave the volatility to others. Don't regret it.

I love what the company is doing, but the stock valuation is insane - up or down 5-10% on even minor news just isn't my cup of tea. To the extent that I do buy individual stocks, they tend to be more predictable ones with more tangible value to stabilize prices.

The valuation is definitely mad. But when would it come down? The reaction to the tesla 3 was amazing

It may not come down. But they probably will need to raise $1.5 billion soon for capital expenditures. That will probably be an equity raise (selling a ton more stock, and diluting existing shareholders). So that could be one catalyst. But it could also just sit at that valuation for a long time (in which case, bonds would be better). Or it could hang out at that valuation until there are delays with the model 3 (and there will be delays) or some other bad news comes out and people lose faith. Or people begin to buy Bolts or Leafs with bigger batteries, etc. There are many negative catalysts pending.

People also don't realize yet that Powerwall is a failure. The batteries are just too expensive for it to be a viable product yet. Maybe in 5 or 15 years.

All true, but equally Tesla aren't the first electric car makers, and they are doing it better than the competition. They also have clear advantages - the superchargers being one obvious one. And they're the first company to make a model that has been well received by the mainstream and doesn't compromise on performance or style. From that perspective all the ducks are in a row for me.

webcat86

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #12 on: May 05, 2016, 01:18:43 PM »

The valuation is definitely mad. But when would it come down? The reaction to the tesla 3 was amazing

Pretty well answered by forummm there. I can only add this: I can't say if it's overvalued or undervalued, and neither can the analysts. Look at the price targets. I wish them nothing but success, and I plan on owning their product eventually (subject to the right financial achievements first) but I don't have the stomach to pin my fortunes to that rollercoaster.

My latest buys are power production companies I've watched for years as they manage finances conservatively, add high-quality income-producing assets at good prices, and consistently grow their income while maintaining a cushion for hard times. Neither one will ever double in a year, but they'll probably still be steadily increasing dividends when you and I are dead.

Yeah there's no way I could pin my fortunes to it. I'm willing to take a punt as a side "gamble" though.

How do you find and monitor those companies?

zephyr911

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #13 on: May 05, 2016, 01:34:48 PM »
I read about things that matter to me and take note of the tickers that stick out. Most things stay in my watch list a long time - reading earnings calls, getting a feel for management philosophy, etc. The two in question are BEP (first buy after years of thinking about it) and PEGI (small stake for 2+ yrs, added on lower price and rising dividend). Due diligence is everything.

Tesla is indeed a fun gamble if you like to watch your value fluctuate. Don't put in anything you wouldn't lay on a blackjack table, and you'll be fine.

webcat86

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #14 on: May 05, 2016, 01:40:04 PM »
I read about things that matter to me and take note of the tickers that stick out. Most things stay in my watch list a long time - reading earnings calls, getting a feel for management philosophy, etc. The two in question are BEP (first buy after years of thinking about it) and PEGI (small stake for 2+ yrs, added on lower price and rising dividend). Due diligence is everything.

Tesla is indeed a fun gamble if you like to watch your value fluctuate. Don't put in anything you wouldn't lay on a blackjack table, and you'll be fine.
Yeah I'd even be tempted to sell early - if they go up 50% I might decide to count my blessings and cash out rather than risk a plunge a year later

Dollar Slice

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #15 on: May 05, 2016, 01:42:57 PM »
Tesla is indeed a fun gamble if you like to watch your value fluctuate. Don't put in anything you wouldn't lay on a blackjack table, and you'll be fine.

I think it's sort of a lottery ticket type investment, but with less risk. There's a decent chance you'll keep up with the market. There's a large chance you will not lose all your money. But you buy a few shares with the hope that it really blows up and will end up worth a small fortune.

AlanStache

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #16 on: May 05, 2016, 01:49:38 PM »
re PowerWall, just found this
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-04/tesla-powerwalls-for-home-energy-storage-are-hitting-u-s-market

3k$ (before instillation) for a 6.4-kilowatt-hour  system.  That is a relatively small capacity compared to average monthly usages, but then how much of the high usage is due to AC running when it it sunny out and you dont need a battery to store your roof top solar.  The pw seems much more a niche or fashon product now than something joe-6-pack needs.  But as with most tech prices will come down and function will go up with time.

re Tesla: had some fun with it years ago, walked away +500$ish.  Not worth the effort.

Koogie

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #17 on: May 05, 2016, 01:51:02 PM »
"anyone invested in tesla?"

Only emotionally.... :o)

FWIW, I read the recent Elon Musk biography.  I bit by the numbers but a good read nonetheless...

capitalninja

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2016, 01:59:35 PM »
Tesla doesn't pay a dividend so no.

webcat86

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2016, 02:05:30 PM »
Tesla doesn't pay a dividend so no.
Suits me. Reinvesting the money to change the world rather than paying out to shareholders too early

zephyr911

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2016, 02:06:11 PM »
"anyone invested in tesla?"

Only emotionally.... :o)
+1

I have hosted a few range-anxious Model S owners in my driveway, as I live in the middle of a big hole in the Supercharger network and have the only free publicly advertised 40-amp vehicle charger in my county (TM roadside assistance even sent one of them). I never get tired of looking at those things.

Seppia

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2016, 03:26:48 PM »
Any time you can invest in a company that loses money every time they sell a car, who trades for 28 times book value and more than 6 times their total sales and who hasn't delivered a single product in time you basically have to.

I think there's a better chance of tesla being a Ponzi scheme than a good investment to be honest.

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2016, 03:35:41 PM »
I heard a rumor that Apple might buy Tesla, they have oodles of cash and want to do cars.  Thoughts?  Discuss. 

Seppia

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2016, 03:40:13 PM »
Wow, that would make a giant conglomerate of TWO stocks I would not touch with a pole!

They just have to subsequently merge with Twitter, take Uber public and merge with them too and we're golden :)

dandarc

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2016, 03:54:28 PM »
Wow, that would make a giant conglomerate of TWO stocks I would not touch with a pole!

They just have to subsequently merge with Twitter, take Uber public and merge with them too and we're golden :)
One way to get to a Vertically-Integrated Self driving taxi service that's "cool" - just like MMM predicted in his Tesla article.

Heckler

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #25 on: May 06, 2016, 08:04:34 AM »
Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?

Yes.  And Apple. and Google. And Ford. And GM. and Walmart.  And First National Bank.  And....

workathomedad

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #26 on: May 06, 2016, 08:56:09 AM »
I would consider investing in them via the 35k automobile, if the credit was still available (equivalent to a 20k+ deduction in my bracket) someday!

zephyr911

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #27 on: May 06, 2016, 09:12:22 AM »
Any time you can invest in a company that loses money every time they sell a car, who trades for 28 times book value and more than 6 times their total sales and who hasn't delivered a single product in time you basically have to.

I think there's a better chance of tesla being a Ponzi scheme than a good investment to be honest.

I realize not everyone knows how to Google "Model S gross margin", but I generally assume the average MMM'er does.

Criticism is great, and quantitative criticism is even better, but sticking to legitimate ones is recommended for the sake of credibility.

effigy98

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #28 on: May 06, 2016, 12:41:37 PM »
I really like Tesla longterm as a power distribution company, the cars are just icing on the cake. However, I really want a lower entry point in the mid 100s, not sure if I can see that again but fingers crossed.

Seppia

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Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #29 on: May 06, 2016, 02:14:40 PM »
Any time you can invest in a company that loses money every time they sell a car, who trades for 28 times book value and more than 6 times their total sales and who hasn't delivered a single product in time you basically have to.

I think there's a better chance of tesla being a Ponzi scheme than a good investment to be honest.

I realize not everyone knows how to Google "Model S gross margin", but I generally assume the average MMM'er does.

Criticism is great, and quantitative criticism is even better, but sticking to legitimate ones is recommended for the sake of credibility.


Excuse me?
I admire you a lot on this forum but this comment doesn't make any sense.
Do you take advertisement expenses out of GM profitability because "they don't count on the margin made on a car"?

My statement about "losing money every time they sell a car" is maybe factually incorrect (assuming you mean just on a "product margin" level) and I could acknowledge so

Tesla is still selling for 28 times book value, 6 times sales and is currently losing money

And oh, is taking reservations on models that are not to be available in the foreseeable short term future.

You are possibly correct they do not have a negative product margin on every car they sell (which doesn't mean they don't lose money btw), but it still looks like a terrible terrible investment to me.

Driko

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #30 on: May 06, 2016, 08:08:45 PM »
The CEO has said he doesn't care if the company bankrupts as long as EVs take over the market. That's why he is giving the tech away to the big car companies. He has a greater vision to do away with fossil fuel vehicles. That is the main reason I wouldn't invest with the company. I do love the vision and I probably will buy a tesla in the future, but as an investment it seems way too risky.

a1smith

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #31 on: May 06, 2016, 08:56:37 PM »
I heard a rumor that Apple might buy Tesla, they have oodles of cash and want to do cars.  Thoughts?  Discuss.

They already have their own EV program.  I doubt they are interested.  Plus, there are people saying that if Apple and Tesla come together that Musk should be CEO.  I don't think Apple's board or Cook would allow that.

a1smith

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #32 on: May 06, 2016, 09:06:13 PM »
I really like Tesla longterm as a power distribution company, the cars are just icing on the cake. However, I really want a lower entry point in the mid 100s, not sure if I can see that again but fingers crossed.

At the rate it has been dropping since their "Ludicrous" Q1 conference call (and even before) you might not have to wait very long.  Just in the last 5 days it has dropped about 10%.  It's dropped about 20% since April 6th which was right after the Model 3 reveal.    People are growing tired of EM hype, overpromises, etc. and they are also disappointed that there is going to be dilution from a capital raise that just months ago Tesla said wasn't necessary.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2016, 10:13:57 PM by a1smith »

a1smith

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #33 on: May 06, 2016, 09:23:29 PM »
I read about things that matter to me and take note of the tickers that stick out. Most things stay in my watch list a long time - reading earnings calls, getting a feel for management philosophy, etc. The two in question are BEP (first buy after years of thinking about it) and PEGI (small stake for 2+ yrs, added on lower price and rising dividend). Due diligence is everything.

Tesla is indeed a fun gamble if you like to watch your value fluctuate. Don't put in anything you wouldn't lay on a blackjack table, and you'll be fine.
Yeah I'd even be tempted to sell early - if they go up 50% I might decide to count my blessings and cash out rather than risk a plunge a year later

Ok, you lost me on that comment.  You're buying Tesla with a 20-30 year investment horizon but you'll sell it if it goes up 50%?!?!  For LT investments with that kind of horizon I would be planning on more return.  For example, I have some MO I bought 11/25/2009 and it is up 3.23X (223%); that's just price appreciation and doesn't include return from dividends.

a1smith

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #34 on: May 06, 2016, 09:58:07 PM »
The CEO has said he doesn't care if the company bankrupts as long as EVs take over the market. That's why he is giving the tech away to the big car companies. He has a greater vision to do away with fossil fuel vehicles. That is the main reason I wouldn't invest with the company. I do love the vision and I probably will buy a tesla in the future, but as an investment it seems way too risky.

Well, maybe Elon Musk should ask the investors what they think about the company going bankrupt; my bet is they do care.

In my opinion, the IP he gave away was a big publicity stunt.  Tesla has a grand total of 254 patents.  To list just one example, GM was granted 1643 patents in 2013.  Also,
Quote
“GM is the only company to have achieved the No. 1 position 11 consecutive times in the Patent Board’s Automotive and Transportation industry ranking,” said Karl R. Wilhelm, chief executive officer of the Patent Board. “GM’s contribution to innovation in its industry has clearly put it ahead of its competitors.”

An amusing Tesla patent is 8,572,837.  It discusses a method of making a rotor for an electric motor.  It mentions braising parts.  I guess the Tesla engineers and/or the patent attorneys don't know the difference between braising (cooking) and brazing (metal joining). Hey Elon, what's for lunch?  :-D

And finally, here is a Reuters article that shows that perception doesn't always match reality - Automakers, not Silicon Valley, lead in driverless car patents: study
Quote
Toyota is, far and away, the global leader in the number of self-driving car patents, the report found. Toyota is followed by Germany’s Robert Bosch GmbH [ROBG.UL], Japan’s Denso Corp (6902.T), Korea’s Hyundai Motor Co (005380.KS) and General Motors Co (GM.N). The tech company with the most autonomous-driving patents, Alphabet Inc's (GOOGL.O) Google, ranks 26th on the list.

Edit - added quote from Reuters article
« Last Edit: May 06, 2016, 10:11:18 PM by a1smith »

webcat86

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #35 on: May 07, 2016, 12:46:27 AM »
I read about things that matter to me and take note of the tickers that stick out. Most things stay in my watch list a long time - reading earnings calls, getting a feel for management philosophy, etc. The two in question are BEP (first buy after years of thinking about it) and PEGI (small stake for 2+ yrs, added on lower price and rising dividend). Due diligence is everything.

Tesla is indeed a fun gamble if you like to watch your value fluctuate. Don't put in anything you wouldn't lay on a blackjack table, and you'll be fine.
Yeah I'd even be tempted to sell early - if they go up 50% I might decide to count my blessings and cash out rather than risk a plunge a year later

Ok, you lost me on that comment.  You're buying Tesla with a 20-30 year investment horizon but you'll sell it if it goes up 50%?!?!  For LT investments with that kind of horizon I would be planning on more return.  For example, I have some MO I bought 11/25/2009 and it is up 3.23X (223%); that's just price appreciation and doesn't include return from dividends.

No just thinking out loud based on what's been mentioned here about the company volatility.

libertarian4321

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #36 on: May 07, 2016, 04:58:31 AM »
I'm not an investor, but my wife did order a Model 3.  Number 452,657 on the list.  Or something like that.

a1smith

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #37 on: May 07, 2016, 07:19:36 AM »
I'm not an investor, but my wife did order a Model 3.  Number 452,657 on the list.  Or something like that.

Can you double check that number and post it?  Tesla is not very forthcoming with data.  Musk quit posting order info in the mid 300K's and then all they've said since is "approaching 400k orders".

libertarian4321

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #38 on: May 07, 2016, 07:24:31 AM »
I'm not an investor, but my wife did order a Model 3.  Number 452,657 on the list.  Or something like that.

Can you double check that number and post it?  Tesla is not very forthcoming with data.  Musk quit posting order info in the mid 300K's and then all they've said since is "approaching 400k orders".

It was a couple of weeks ago that she ordered it.  It may have been in the low 400s.  All I remember is she told me she was 400 and something thousand.

forummm

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #39 on: May 07, 2016, 08:17:14 AM »
Musk has been consistently over promising for quite a long time. Yet people keep investing. That's one reason the stock is so volatile. A story stock that doesn't make money and has a shaky but exciting story is hard to value. So it trades a lot based on news.

And the number of patents isn't that important--it's what the patents contain. Most tech patents are worthless except as ammo in patent wars. There are probably 5 or more patents for similar things held by other firms. The patent system is such a mess now.

I heard a rumor that Apple might buy Tesla, they have oodles of cash and want to do cars.  Thoughts?  Discuss.

They already have their own EV program.  I doubt they are interested.  Plus, there are people saying that if Apple and Tesla come together that Musk should be CEO.  I don't think Apple's board or Cook would allow that.

I don't think it's especially likely that Apple buys Tesla. But if they did, there wouldn't be any reason for Musk to be CEO. That wouldn't fly with the board given that he also is CEO of another company and notoriously over busy.


FINate

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #40 on: May 07, 2016, 10:38:03 AM »
Tesla's stock is, as they say, "priced for perfection." It's valuation can only be justified long term if they perform more-or-less flawlessly on a consistent basis going forward. More concretely, it's valued at $620,000 per car delivered last year, and $63,000 for every car it hopes to deliver in 2020. I believe they can pull it off, but there's a cascade of events that must go their way in order to justify this valuation, including factors beyond their control, which is another way of saying it's high risk. It's a gamble, treat it as such and don't put in anything you don't want to lose.

Don't get me wrong, I love Tesla and what they're doing. We barely drive our clown cars so they will last many more years, but I hope Tesla is around with affordable EVs when we're in the market for a car again. I just would not invest in them right now.

Seppia

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #41 on: May 07, 2016, 02:59:13 PM »
Tesla's stock is, as they say, "priced for perfection." It's valuation can only be justified long term if they perform more-or-less flawlessly on a consistent basis going forward. More concretely, it's valued at $620,000 per car delivered last year, and $63,000 for every car it hopes to deliver in 2020.

LOL
I loved the follow up

"By comparison, General Motors Co's (GM.N) $48 billion market value is equivalent to about $4,800 for every vehicle it sold last year"

But hey, they make money on the model S!

What could possibly go wrong?

nobodyspecial

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #42 on: May 07, 2016, 05:37:32 PM »
GM is the one that went bust and was nationalized right ?

PaulMaxime

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #43 on: May 07, 2016, 07:10:55 PM »
Bought some at $33 and some at $120 or so. Been holding it for several years and don't plan on selling it any time soon.

FINate

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #44 on: May 07, 2016, 09:29:11 PM »
GM is the one that went bust and was nationalized right ?

Yes and no - GM was went bankrupt and was bailed out by the feds and has since paid back the debts. What's your point though? Is a bankruptcy 4 years ago that relevant to investing decisions today?

For the record, I'm not interested in investing in GM either.

Seppia

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #45 on: May 08, 2016, 01:39:08 AM »
Ok let's pick ford then
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/01/hyundai-4th-largest-automaker-overtakes-ford/
Market cap today is approx 54 billion

$10.000 per car (more or less, I have no data on today's production).

That's about 63 times less than tesla.
Only 6 times less their most rosy forecast for 2020 sales though (based on timelines they haven't respected one single time but yay Model S!)

thedayisbrave

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #46 on: May 08, 2016, 08:53:43 AM »
I saw my first Tesla in 2013 and it took my breath away.  So I went home and bought the stock at $32.  Sold about 6 months later at $95+.

Regretted selling, obviously, but I didn't think it would break $100, much less hit the high $200s.  Bought back in at $200 and am holding.  Wish I would have averaged down when it dipped to $150 but didn't want to keep throwing dry powder at such a speculative play.

We'll see what happens... but the response to the Model 3 was mind boggling.

webcat86

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #47 on: May 08, 2016, 11:03:35 AM »
I saw my first Tesla in 2013 and it took my breath away.  So I went home and bought the stock at $32.  Sold about 6 months later at $95+.

Regretted selling, obviously, but I didn't think it would break $100, much less hit the high $200s.  Bought back in at $200 and am holding.  Wish I would have averaged down when it dipped to $150 but didn't want to keep throwing dry powder at such a speculative play.

We'll see what happens... but the response to the Model 3 was mind boggling.

Would you buy in at today's prices?

thedayisbrave

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #48 on: May 09, 2016, 06:03:58 AM »
I saw my first Tesla in 2013 and it took my breath away.  So I went home and bought the stock at $32.  Sold about 6 months later at $95+.

Regretted selling, obviously, but I didn't think it would break $100, much less hit the high $200s.  Bought back in at $200 and am holding.  Wish I would have averaged down when it dipped to $150 but didn't want to keep throwing dry powder at such a speculative play.

We'll see what happens... but the response to the Model 3 was mind boggling.

Would you buy in at today's prices?

No

Scandium

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Re: Anyone invested in Tesla?
« Reply #49 on: May 09, 2016, 09:45:20 AM »
Some cold water on this overhyped company.
http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/05/opinion-teslas-self-induced-jet-wash/#p3

Quote
Before the recent earnings release, investors had anticipated a full-year cash burn of about $820 million. Yet, if one counts Tesla's various proposed but re-evaluated capital expenditures, losses could total $1.6 billion.

Looking at Tesla’s macro finance picture, its cash balance through the end of last quarter stood at $1.4 billion. Add in the impressive $400 million-to-date deposits for the Model 3 pre-orders and you get $1.8 billion in cash reserves. Consider the cash burn-through of $1.6 billion—Tesla retains just $200 million, or about $800 million shy of what it once considered a comfortable level to run the company. Acquiring external financing looks inevitable, but Tesla’s already saddled with serious debt. Adding more loans and interest payments and losing more profitability would not be advisable and historically has proven to be the start of so many death spirals in tech, autos, and business.

And the mounting the reports of QC issues. In addition, with the highest-trim preorders being given preference, the "people's Tesla" will not be sold until long after the $7.5k Fed rebate is phased out. Putting it near (or well over) $40k, depending on what you consider essential options. More and more it sounds like a software startup that thinks it can run a car company; control everything, overhype, overpromise, release beta, delay.