It's very hard to come up with a better strategy sustainable over long periods of time (maybe decades) other than keep investing, stay diversified and pay as little fees as possible.
I agree, but that doesn't mean that you can't shift your asset allocation around depending on the relative risk/reward you see in various asset classes as their relative prices change. The S&P has rallied 65% since it's March bottom. That's an annulised growth rate of very nearly 100%.. in an asset class whose long term growth rate is around 9-10%pa.
Some of the longer term future returns from March MUST have been pulled forward, therefore equities aren't as attractive to me they were in March, which warrants less exposure to equities.
We are entering bubble territory, imo most similar to the 1998-2000 blowoff top after the Asian panic late in that decade. Sure, there may be some juice still left, which is fine as I still have considerable exposure, but it's time to be start being fearful when everyone else is getting very greedy imo.
I mean, people *can* actively adjust their AA in response to the market as a form of market timing if they want to...
Sure, that's an option.
It's probably a shit option for most since people tend to be TERRIBLE at market timing. I'm not saying you aren't, I'm absolutely certain some people pull it off in a sane and measured manner and capture some pretty decent gains as a result.
I just don't think that's most people. Or, at least, not many of the people I've seen here try to time the market.
Of course, changing AA over time can make sense for anyone if it's part of their plan for handling SORR, but that's not the same thing at all.
Also, those of us who are more "set it and forget it" aren't greedy. I for one am not greedy, I barely care about my returns and genuinely could not tell you what they've been year over year since I started investing in 2015. That's not greed, that's near total detachment. Even if stocks plummet for the next decade, it has no impact on me as long as they eventually come back up.
I don't care about volatility, I expect the market will probably go up over time, and if it doesn't, I anticipate that I will have bigger societal concerns than my investment returns.
I will adjust my AA according to my timeline, not market performance because I don't have nearly the inclination or skill to be able to do so.
