Author Topic: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?  (Read 28884 times)

Radagast

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #150 on: November 07, 2021, 08:49:05 AM »
I think we've entered the blowoff top phase.

Don't know how high it will go, but the ensuing crash could easily be worse than 2008/9 in terms of peak/trough drawdown (what, 58% or so?)
No, there hasn't been a 58% drawdown in the past 50 years.  If you can't even predict the past, how can you expect to predict the future?
VTI 2007 High 78.25
VTI 2009 Low 33.26
Percent Loss 57.4952%
Checks out...

Of course, Vand isn't in the US.
VEU 2007 High 64.51
VEU 2009 Low 23.32
Percent Loss 63.8506%


Radagast

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #151 on: November 07, 2021, 09:32:27 AM »
Let's look at the opposite. Can anyone give a reason the why the S&P500 will definitely not be over 10,000 in ten years? In the past ten years CAPE10 has doubled. What reason do we have to think it won't double again in ten years? I read an interesting observation that US market tops have been occurring every 35 years. Maybe things will be like helium until 2035, and the bubble is barely getting started?

Similar for 30-year treasury bond yields. They were around 7% in 2000 before the crash. They were around 5% in 2007 before the crash. They were around 3% in 2020 before the crash. Why wouldn't they be 1% before the next crash, and -1% before the crash after that?

If Japan could do it, can't the US do it bigger and more extravagantly?

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #152 on: November 09, 2021, 02:04:39 AM »
I think we've entered the blowoff top phase.

Don't know how high it will go, but the ensuing crash could easily be worse than 2008/9 in terms of peak/trough drawdown (what, 58% or so?)
No, there hasn't been a 58% drawdown in the past 50 years.  If you can't even predict the past, how can you expect to predict the future?
VTI 2007 High 78.25
VTI 2009 Low 33.26
Percent Loss 57.4952%
Checks out...
Can I have all your dividends, since you don't count them?

Yahoo Finance shows VTI opened 2008 at $72.60 and ended at $44.74, which is how you calculated it?  Comparing prices only gives a loss of 38.37% for 2008.  But according to Yahoo Finance, VTI lost 36.97%.  So Yahoo Finance disagrees with how you calculate.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTI/performance?p=VTI

And Portfolio Visualizer also disagrees, showing a 51% drawdown.  Enter "US Stock Market" 100%, and the full time range.  The worst drawdown is -51%.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation

vand

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #153 on: November 09, 2021, 02:58:16 AM »
Let's look at the opposite. Can anyone give a reason the why the S&P500 will definitely not be over 10,000 in ten years? In the past ten years CAPE10 has doubled. What reason do we have to think it won't double again in ten years? I read an interesting observation that US market tops have been occurring every 35 years. Maybe things will be like helium until 2035, and the bubble is barely getting started?

Similar for 30-year treasury bond yields. They were around 7% in 2000 before the crash. They were around 5% in 2007 before the crash. They were around 3% in 2020 before the crash. Why wouldn't they be 1% before the next crash, and -1% before the crash after that?

If Japan could do it, can't the US do it bigger and more extravagantly?

It could do that. Bubbles by their nature are driven by irrationality where expectations are no longer underpinned by fundamentals.
But also by the same extent, the market does also also return to reality - eventually.. meaning that there is a usually a precipitous drop after the peak. 


dougules

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #154 on: November 09, 2021, 01:52:11 PM »
Let's look at the opposite. Can anyone give a reason the why the S&P500 will definitely not be over 10,000 in ten years? In the past ten years CAPE10 has doubled. What reason do we have to think it won't double again in ten years? I read an interesting observation that US market tops have been occurring every 35 years. Maybe things will be like helium until 2035, and the bubble is barely getting started?

Similar for 30-year treasury bond yields. They were around 7% in 2000 before the crash. They were around 5% in 2007 before the crash. They were around 3% in 2020 before the crash. Why wouldn't they be 1% before the next crash, and -1% before the crash after that?

If Japan could do it, can't the US do it bigger and more extravagantly?

It could do that. Bubbles by their nature are driven by irrationality where expectations are no longer underpinned by fundamentals.
But also by the same extent, the market does also also return to reality - eventually.. meaning that there is a usually a precipitous drop after the peak.

Eventually is very much the key word.  And the drop doesn’t have to be in nominal terms.

habanero

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #155 on: November 09, 2021, 01:57:23 PM »
This guy has been for a long time. His "Strategic growth fund" has a 10y annualized return of minus 6.23% which is, in a bizarre way, extremely impressive. Apart from that it's pretty good read.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211015/

Among the illusions encouraged by every speculative bubble is the idea that wealth is embodied in the prices of securities – that higher prices inherently represent greater “wealth.” The fact is that every security is, at base, a claim to some future stream of cash flows that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. The wealth is in those cash flows. Yes, any individual can obtain the market price of a security by selling it to someone else, but the buyer, and ultimately the whole string of people who own the security until it is retired – ultimately has a claim on only one thing: the cash flows that the security will deliver over time. That’s where the wealth is. Every other transaction is simply a transfer of wealth between a buyer and a seller. At extreme valuations, that transfer typically favors the seller. At depressed valuations, that transfer typically favors the buyer.

When the prices of securities become extreme relative to their underlying fundamentals – the revenues, GDP or other economic engines that generate deliverable cash flows – there’s only one way to bring the ratio of price to fundamentals back into line, and that is for prices to grow at a slower rate than fundamentals do.

In general, that implies a long period of dull or negative investment returns.

boarder42

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #156 on: November 09, 2021, 01:58:22 PM »
Let's look at the opposite. Can anyone give a reason the why the S&P500 will definitely not be over 10,000 in ten years? In the past ten years CAPE10 has doubled. What reason do we have to think it won't double again in ten years? I read an interesting observation that US market tops have been occurring every 35 years. Maybe things will be like helium until 2035, and the bubble is barely getting started?

Similar for 30-year treasury bond yields. They were around 7% in 2000 before the crash. They were around 5% in 2007 before the crash. They were around 3% in 2020 before the crash. Why wouldn't they be 1% before the next crash, and -1% before the crash after that?

If Japan could do it, can't the US do it bigger and more extravagantly?

It could do that. Bubbles by their nature are driven by irrationality where expectations are no longer underpinned by fundamentals.
But also by the same extent, the market does also also return to reality - eventually.. meaning that there is a usually a precipitous drop after the peak.

Eventually is very much the key word.  And the drop doesn’t have to be in nominal terms.

feel like we've been having the same conversation about this since 2013. 

dougules

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #157 on: November 09, 2021, 02:08:05 PM »
Let's look at the opposite. Can anyone give a reason the why the S&P500 will definitely not be over 10,000 in ten years? In the past ten years CAPE10 has doubled. What reason do we have to think it won't double again in ten years? I read an interesting observation that US market tops have been occurring every 35 years. Maybe things will be like helium until 2035, and the bubble is barely getting started?

Similar for 30-year treasury bond yields. They were around 7% in 2000 before the crash. They were around 5% in 2007 before the crash. They were around 3% in 2020 before the crash. Why wouldn't they be 1% before the next crash, and -1% before the crash after that?

If Japan could do it, can't the US do it bigger and more extravagantly?

It could do that. Bubbles by their nature are driven by irrationality where expectations are no longer underpinned by fundamentals.
But also by the same extent, the market does also also return to reality - eventually.. meaning that there is a usually a precipitous drop after the peak.

Eventually is very much the key word.  And the drop doesn’t have to be in nominal terms.

feel like we've been having the same conversation about this since 2013.

Exactly

ChpBstrd

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #158 on: November 09, 2021, 02:21:07 PM »
This guy has been for a long time. His "Strategic growth fund" has a 10y annualized return of minus 6.23% which is, in a bizarre way, extremely impressive. Apart from that it's pretty good read.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211015/

Among the illusions encouraged by every speculative bubble is the idea that wealth is embodied in the prices of securities – that higher prices inherently represent greater “wealth.” The fact is that every security is, at base, a claim to some future stream of cash flows that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. The wealth is in those cash flows. Yes, any individual can obtain the market price of a security by selling it to someone else, but the buyer, and ultimately the whole string of people who own the security until it is retired – ultimately has a claim on only one thing: the cash flows that the security will deliver over time. That’s where the wealth is. Every other transaction is simply a transfer of wealth between a buyer and a seller. At extreme valuations, that transfer typically favors the seller. At depressed valuations, that transfer typically favors the buyer.

When the prices of securities become extreme relative to their underlying fundamentals – the revenues, GDP or other economic engines that generate deliverable cash flows – there’s only one way to bring the ratio of price to fundamentals back into line, and that is for prices to grow at a slower rate than fundamentals do.

In general, that implies a long period of dull or negative investment returns.


That's surprisingly confident for a fund with that record. I don't even see the word "sorry".

SparkyPeanut

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #159 on: November 09, 2021, 05:20:05 PM »
This guy has been for a long time. His "Strategic growth fund" has a 10y annualized return of minus 6.23% which is, in a bizarre way, extremely impressive. Apart from that it's pretty good read.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211015/

Among the illusions encouraged by every speculative bubble is the idea that wealth is embodied in the prices of securities – that higher prices inherently represent greater “wealth.” The fact is that every security is, at base, a claim to some future stream of cash flows that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. The wealth is in those cash flows. Yes, any individual can obtain the market price of a security by selling it to someone else, but the buyer, and ultimately the whole string of people who own the security until it is retired – ultimately has a claim on only one thing: the cash flows that the security will deliver over time. That’s where the wealth is. Every other transaction is simply a transfer of wealth between a buyer and a seller. At extreme valuations, that transfer typically favors the seller. At depressed valuations, that transfer typically favors the buyer.

When the prices of securities become extreme relative to their underlying fundamentals – the revenues, GDP or other economic engines that generate deliverable cash flows – there’s only one way to bring the ratio of price to fundamentals back into line, and that is for prices to grow at a slower rate than fundamentals do.

In general, that implies a long period of dull or negative investment returns.


That's surprisingly confident for a fund with that record. I don't even see the word "sorry".

That's incredible. How does he have any clients??

PDXTabs

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #160 on: November 09, 2021, 05:23:36 PM »
This guy has been for a long time. His "Strategic growth fund" has a 10y annualized return of minus 6.23% which is, in a bizarre way, extremely impressive. Apart from that it's pretty good read.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211015/

Among the illusions encouraged by every speculative bubble is the idea that wealth is embodied in the prices of securities – that higher prices inherently represent greater “wealth.” The fact is that every security is, at base, a claim to some future stream of cash flows that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. The wealth is in those cash flows. Yes, any individual can obtain the market price of a security by selling it to someone else, but the buyer, and ultimately the whole string of people who own the security until it is retired – ultimately has a claim on only one thing: the cash flows that the security will deliver over time. That’s where the wealth is. Every other transaction is simply a transfer of wealth between a buyer and a seller. At extreme valuations, that transfer typically favors the seller. At depressed valuations, that transfer typically favors the buyer.

When the prices of securities become extreme relative to their underlying fundamentals – the revenues, GDP or other economic engines that generate deliverable cash flows – there’s only one way to bring the ratio of price to fundamentals back into line, and that is for prices to grow at a slower rate than fundamentals do.

In general, that implies a long period of dull or negative investment returns.


Yea, if we just bet against him can we beat the market?



https://xkcd.com/2270/

vand

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #161 on: November 10, 2021, 12:39:13 AM »
Let's look at the opposite. Can anyone give a reason the why the S&P500 will definitely not be over 10,000 in ten years? In the past ten years CAPE10 has doubled. What reason do we have to think it won't double again in ten years? I read an interesting observation that US market tops have been occurring every 35 years. Maybe things will be like helium until 2035, and the bubble is barely getting started?

Similar for 30-year treasury bond yields. They were around 7% in 2000 before the crash. They were around 5% in 2007 before the crash. They were around 3% in 2020 before the crash. Why wouldn't they be 1% before the next crash, and -1% before the crash after that?

If Japan could do it, can't the US do it bigger and more extravagantly?

It could do that. Bubbles by their nature are driven by irrationality where expectations are no longer underpinned by fundamentals.
But also by the same extent, the market does also also return to reality - eventually.. meaning that there is a usually a precipitous drop after the peak.

Eventually is very much the key word.  And the drop doesn’t have to be in nominal terms.

Sorry, disagree on that one. You want to have your cake and eat it, but it doesn’t work like that.  Rather than inflation bailing you out, it is far more likely that a more inflationary environment will crush paper assets when people decide they aren’t up for paying silly multiples for distant future cash flows and start to apply far larger discount rates for those cash flows - ie valuations get cut savagely.

Inflation didn’t bail out stockholders in the 70s. It hurt them.

One of the main reasons why central banks target 2% is that is the rate which maximises asset prices.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2021, 12:41:16 AM by vand »

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #162 on: November 10, 2021, 07:04:31 AM »
Speaking of bad performance, one of the worst ETFs over the past 5 years was an Oil & Gas ETF with a 5-year track record of -18.6%.  Still, it gives a good example of the energy sector reverting to the mean, with a 1-year return of +90.75%.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XES/performance?p=XES

And more generally, the worst 5 year returns are energy ETFs:
https://etfdb.com/compare/lowest-5-year-returns/no-leveraged/

While the best 1 year returns also have lots of energy ETFs
https://etfdb.com/compare/highest-52-week-returns/no-leveraged

dougules

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #163 on: November 10, 2021, 12:52:41 PM »
Let's look at the opposite. Can anyone give a reason the why the S&P500 will definitely not be over 10,000 in ten years? In the past ten years CAPE10 has doubled. What reason do we have to think it won't double again in ten years? I read an interesting observation that US market tops have been occurring every 35 years. Maybe things will be like helium until 2035, and the bubble is barely getting started?

Similar for 30-year treasury bond yields. They were around 7% in 2000 before the crash. They were around 5% in 2007 before the crash. They were around 3% in 2020 before the crash. Why wouldn't they be 1% before the next crash, and -1% before the crash after that?

If Japan could do it, can't the US do it bigger and more extravagantly?

It could do that. Bubbles by their nature are driven by irrationality where expectations are no longer underpinned by fundamentals.
But also by the same extent, the market does also also return to reality - eventually.. meaning that there is a usually a precipitous drop after the peak.

Eventually is very much the key word.  And the drop doesn’t have to be in nominal terms.

Sorry, disagree on that one. You want to have your cake and eat it, but it doesn’t work like that.  Rather than inflation bailing you out, it is far more likely that a more inflationary environment will crush paper assets when people decide they aren’t up for paying silly multiples for distant future cash flows and start to apply far larger discount rates for those cash flows - ie valuations get cut savagely.

Inflation didn’t bail out stockholders in the 70s. It hurt them.

One of the main reasons why central banks target 2% is that is the rate which maximises asset prices.

No, it's not a bail-out or a good thing at all.  It's still a crash in real terms even if not nominal.  The difference is that so many of the alternatives are even worse in an inflationary environment.

Telecaster

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #164 on: November 10, 2021, 05:59:52 PM »
This guy has been for a long time. His "Strategic growth fund" has a 10y annualized return of minus 6.23% which is, in a bizarre way, extremely impressive. Apart from that it's pretty good read.

Every time I read Hussman he sounds really smart.   But he is such an epically bad fund manager.   

theoverlook

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #165 on: November 11, 2021, 07:58:30 AM »
This guy has been for a long time. His "Strategic growth fund" has a 10y annualized return of minus 6.23% which is, in a bizarre way, extremely impressive. Apart from that it's pretty good read.

Every time I read Hussman he sounds really smart.   But he is such an epically bad fund manager.

To borrow a part of a famous quote from Calvin Coolidge: "Unrewarded genius is almost a proverb."

JAYSLOL

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #166 on: November 11, 2021, 08:39:44 AM »
Let's look at the opposite. Can anyone give a reason the why the S&P500 will definitely not be over 10,000 in ten years? In the past ten years CAPE10 has doubled. What reason do we have to think it won't double again in ten years? I read an interesting observation that US market tops have been occurring every 35 years. Maybe things will be like helium until 2035, and the bubble is barely getting started?

Similar for 30-year treasury bond yields. They were around 7% in 2000 before the crash. They were around 5% in 2007 before the crash. They were around 3% in 2020 before the crash. Why wouldn't they be 1% before the next crash, and -1% before the crash after that?

If Japan could do it, can't the US do it bigger and more extravagantly?

It could do that. Bubbles by their nature are driven by irrationality where expectations are no longer underpinned by fundamentals.
But also by the same extent, the market does also also return to reality - eventually.. meaning that there is a usually a precipitous drop after the peak.

Eventually is very much the key word.  And the drop doesn’t have to be in nominal terms.

Sorry, disagree on that one. You want to have your cake and eat it, but it doesn’t work like that.  Rather than inflation bailing you out, it is far more likely that a more inflationary environment will crush paper assets when people decide they aren’t up for paying silly multiples for distant future cash flows and start to apply far larger discount rates for those cash flows - ie valuations get cut savagely.

Inflation didn’t bail out stockholders in the 70s. It hurt them.

One of the main reasons why central banks target 2% is that is the rate which maximises asset prices.

No, it's not a bail-out or a good thing at all.  It's still a crash in real terms even if not nominal.  The difference is that so many of the alternatives are even worse in an inflationary environment.

This

SparkyPeanut

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #167 on: April 29, 2022, 11:07:26 AM »
Yes I'm feeling nervous.
Have a lump sum to invest but just can't do it right now.
I do DCA into retirement fund.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #168 on: April 29, 2022, 11:34:11 AM »
Yes I'm feeling nervous.
Have a lump sum to invest but just can't do it right now.
I do DCA into retirement fund.
Best Possible Time to Invest! 

The prices are lower than in a year, so you don't have to worry about investing last year and seeing the drop, it has already happened.

Bob, the worlds worst market timer did it, and came out OK.    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/      You can too!
If you are not going to buy on the big dip, when are you?

@RWD list (most recent update I could find), shows that people have been nervous for years.  Waiting lost them a LOT of money. 

1/2013  [SP500 = 1462]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/is-now-a-bad-time-to-invest-in-stock-index-funds/
5/2013  [1583]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/starting-today!/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/$80k-sitting-in-cash-bc-scared-of-high-flying-stock-mkt-punch-me/
10/2013  [1695]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stock-market-expensive-now-alternatives/
5/2014  [1884]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stock-market-is-high-am-i-too-late/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/is-the-stock-market-too-expensive-to-get-back-in/
7/2014  [1973]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/current-market-has-me-scared-to-invest/
9/2014  [2002]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/is-it-a-good-time-to-invest-new-money/
10/2014  [1946]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/stock-market-would-you-buy-now-or-wait/
1/2015  [2058]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stock-market-should-i-be-concerned/
3/2015  [2117]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/talk-me-out-of-timing-the-australian-market/
12/2015  [2103]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/where-to-put-a-large-windfall-with-stock-market-near-all-time-highs/
1/2016  [2013]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/about-to-sell-everything-talk-me-off-the-ledge-(or-push-me-off)-please!/
4/2016 [2073]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/
2/2017  [2280]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/does-anyone-think-we-are-in-a-bubble/
4/2017  [2359]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/
6/2017  [2430]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/continue-the-blog-conversation/recession-coming/
8/2017  [2476]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/getting-scared-of-stock-market/
1/2018  [2696]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/nervous-about-the-market/
3/2018  [2678]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/when-would-you-get-back-in/
5/2018  [2655]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/investing-in-a-bull-market/
6/2018  [2735]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/moving-to-cash-market-timing-can%27t-believe-it/
10/2018  [2925]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/sell-index-funds-now-for-down-payment-during-recession/
2/2019  [2707]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/welp-i'm-going-to-take-a-stab-at-timing-the-market/
4/2019  [2867]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/buy-vtsax-now-while-its-this-high-or-wait-till-a-drop/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/how-concerned-are-you-about-the-everything-bubble/
5/2019  [2924]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/scared-of-investing-in-the-stock-market-now/
6/2019  [2890]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/uk-tax-discussion/global-index-tracker-is-so-high!-do-i-just-keep-putting-my-money-into-it-anyway/
7/2019 [3026]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/would-you-106836/
8/2019 [2889]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/vtsax-and-a-looming-recession/
9/2019 [2978]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/recession-in-2-ish-years-scale-and-nature/
10/2019 [2986]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/advice-needed-108726/
11/2019 [3110]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/questions-from-37yr-old-that-very-recently-became-serious-about-fi/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/where-to-invest-my-cash-now/
12/2019 [3169]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/help!-i-dont-know-where-to-start/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/the-old-excuses-for-down-swings-and-a-reality-yet-we-are-at-all-time-highs!/
1/2020 [3296]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/what-to-do-with-a-large-sum-of-money-bad-time-to-buy-index-funds/
2/2020 [3345]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/real-estate-and-landlording/in-a-pickle/
6/2020 [3125]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/august-is-when-it-all-implodes/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/should-i-move-my-bond-etf-to-money-market-fund-or-cd/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/anyone-else-struggling-to-not-sell/
8/2020 [3360]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/invest-lump-sum-or-wait/
11/2020 [3585]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/little-reminder-just-how-gross-the-valuation-of-equities-is/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/anyone-else-terrified-of-stock-market-right-now/
12/2020 [3703]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/i-pulled-my-index-funds-because-fear-of-market-crash/
2/2021 [3935]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/beginner-question-is-it-a-good-time-to-invest-in-stock-etf-now/
3/2021 [3939]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/sky-high-sp-500-pe-ratio/
4/2021 [4129]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/bad-time-to-enter-large-position-into-market/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/advice-121943/
6/2021 [4281]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/what-to-do-with-a-windfall-122870/
8/2021 [4437]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/the-great-marital-dispute-who-is-'right'-about-how-to-invest!/
9/2021 [4535]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/thoughtshelp-took-crypto-profits-cash-heavy/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/what-to-do-with-large-bonus-123900/
11/2021 [4595]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/what-to-do-with-an-inheritance-(international)/
12/2021 [4701]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/is-a-7-return-unlikely-without-a-complex-approach/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/upcoming-recession/
3/2022 [4201]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/what-to-do-with-$100k-126670/

Miscellaneous
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/%27but-right-now-the-market-is-at-an-all-time-high-%27/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/the-great-market-crash-of-2016!/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/how-to-deal-with-losing-$117k-in-stock-market/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/so-we're-basically-on-track-for-a-bear-market-by-tomorrow/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/anyone-else-feeling-depressed-about-global-equities-10-year-outlook/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stocks-will-only-return-4-annually-for-next-decade-john-bogle/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/new-saver-worried-about-future-stockmarket/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/i-tried-to-time-the-market-roast-me-and-tell-me-what-to-do-now/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/help-i-screwed-up/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/lost-all-my-money-in-the-stock-market-made-it-all-back-and-some-need-advice/




RWD

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #169 on: April 29, 2022, 12:30:28 PM »
@RWD list (most recent update I could find)
That is the most recent one. I keep a link to the latest in my signature so that I can find it later when it requires an update.

bacchi

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #170 on: April 29, 2022, 12:51:22 PM »

@RWD list (most recent update I could find), shows that people have been nervous for years.  Waiting lost them a LOT of money. 


I have friends that went to cash after the covid drop and never got back in. That's a 60% gain (2600->4150) that they missed.* They're now also losing ~10%/yr from inflation.



* It'd "only" be ~30% gain if they stayed in the market from the pre-covid value. Of course, any 401k contributions since then are going into the money market fund.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2022, 01:33:43 PM by bacchi »

shureShote

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #171 on: April 29, 2022, 01:17:56 PM »
Always interesting (and frustrating) to peruse older posts that pop back up. There is so much data out there that continues to be reinforced (invest, just keep investing), but yet somehow, (some) people are more influenced by predictions and feelings that have never been correct. It hurts to hear stories about people going to cash.


JenniferW

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #172 on: April 29, 2022, 03:28:24 PM »
I can't wait until I get my paycheck next month to buy up some VTI.  I was more terrified when the market was higher, but now it is at bargain prices.   The further it goes down the less nervous I am and more I want to invest.

I suppose I'd be nervous if I was investing money I needed any time soon, but I got an emergency fund and solid income.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2022, 03:30:06 PM by JenniferW »

v8rx7guy

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #173 on: April 29, 2022, 03:48:37 PM »
I survived the Covid flash crash... I can handle this shit.

Freedomin5

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #174 on: April 29, 2022, 04:25:28 PM »
I am also loving the dip! Can't wait to get my next paycheque. I am also hoping Canadian housing prices fall over the next year or two. We are about 1-2 years away from pulling the plug on work, so a nice recession happening at this time would work very well in our favor. If our stash can generate enough to cover our annual expenses after losing 30% of its value, that means once the market recovers, it should be more than enough to cover our expenses. My current conundrum is the struggle between needing to build a cash cushion and the temptation to throw all my money into the market.

JenniferW

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #175 on: April 29, 2022, 04:30:58 PM »
I am also loving the dip! Can't wait to get my next paycheque. I am also hoping Canadian housing prices fall over the next year or two. We are about 1-2 years away from pulling the plug on work, so a nice recession happening at this time would work very well in our favor. If our stash can generate enough to cover our annual expenses after losing 30% of its value, that means once the market recovers, it should be more than enough to cover our expenses. My current conundrum is the struggle between needing to build a cash cushion and the temptation to throw all my money into the market.

What about Series I Savings Bonds?  On May 1st, they'll pay guaranteed 9.62% interest.  Good return (relatively speaking) and would provide a cash cushion.  If bought before end of month then you'd get a 7.1% return for 6 months followed by 9.62% for another 6 months.. or 8.54% gain overall.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2022, 04:32:42 PM by JenniferW »

jinga nation

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #176 on: April 29, 2022, 04:48:01 PM »
I survived the Covid flash crash... I can handle this shit.

Exactly!
There's always opportunity amidst adversity.

Freedomin5

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #177 on: April 29, 2022, 04:55:45 PM »
I am also loving the dip! Can't wait to get my next paycheque. I am also hoping Canadian housing prices fall over the next year or two. We are about 1-2 years away from pulling the plug on work, so a nice recession happening at this time would work very well in our favor. If our stash can generate enough to cover our annual expenses after losing 30% of its value, that means once the market recovers, it should be more than enough to cover our expenses. My current conundrum is the struggle between needing to build a cash cushion and the temptation to throw all my money into the market.

What about Series I Savings Bonds?  On May 1st, they'll pay guaranteed 9.62% interest.  Good return (relatively speaking) and would provide a cash cushion.  If bought before end of month then you'd get a 7.1% return for 6 months followed by 9.62% for another 6 months.. or 8.54% gain overall.

I'm Canadian...not sure if I can access these types of high paying savings bonds. Also, I'm an expat (declared non-resident of my home country), which leads to all sorts of limitations. I should look into the Canadian-equivalent of Series I Savings Bonds though, and whether I am allowed to purchase them. I'm not too worried though. I'll keep investing according to our IPS and work on building up our multiple income streams, and I'm pretty sure things will work out just fine.

caleb

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #178 on: April 29, 2022, 07:13:48 PM »
Just to revisit the original premise of this thread:

I have been investing for over a decade. 

The decade of 2011-2021 was a really short decade.  It included no major downturns, and in that sense it is not a long time.  It's a decade where everything went up.

In order to temper your expectations for investing, it might be useful to go back to a graph of the S&P over its entire history and imagine living through each decade.  What do you suppose it would have been like to invest in the 60s, or the 70s, or even the 00s? 

The market goes down, and it stays down for years and years.  If market dynamics tend to revert to the mean, we should now be fully expecting another one of those eras to come.

Abe

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #179 on: April 29, 2022, 08:58:13 PM »
Just to revisit the original premise of this thread:

I have been investing for over a decade. 

I guess that's good because when it pops back up we'll be rolling in it? Unfortunate for those who are retired and cannot re-enter the workforce, but hopefully they prepared to survive on safety net (like Social security in US) and some non-equity savings?

The decade of 2011-2021 was a really short decade.  It included no major downturns, and in that sense it is not a long time.  It's a decade where everything went up.

In order to temper your expectations for investing, it might be useful to go back to a graph of the S&P over its entire history and imagine living through each decade.  What do you suppose it would have been like to invest in the 60s, or the 70s, or even the 00s? 

The market goes down, and it stays down for years and years.  If market dynamics tend to revert to the mean, we should now be fully expecting another one of those eras to come.

TheAnonOne

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #180 on: April 29, 2022, 10:50:15 PM »
we should now be fully expecting another one of those eras to come.

Or everyone expects this and we print our way to 100T in debt by 2030 and the sp hits 10,000 by then.

Juan Ponce de León

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #181 on: April 29, 2022, 10:53:23 PM »
we should now be fully expecting another one of those eras to come.

Or everyone expects this and we print our way to 100T in debt by 2030 and the sp hits 10,000 by then.

The opposite of whatever the herd believes will happen is what will happen.

vand

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #182 on: April 30, 2022, 05:55:31 AM »
we should now be fully expecting another one of those eras to come.

Or everyone expects this and we print our way to 100T in debt by 2030 and the sp hits 10,000 by then.

And it costs you $10k to fill up your fridge

habanero

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #183 on: April 30, 2022, 06:50:06 AM »
but now it is at bargain prices.
No, it isn't. Valuations are still pretty rich despite being less rich then a few months ago.

vand

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #184 on: April 30, 2022, 07:17:59 AM »
Be greedy when others are fearful - easier said than done.

And the fear is kicking in now... Sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish  - one of the lowest readings on record in the AAII survey
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

Historically forward short-med term returns have been very good when sentiment has been this low.

I will be reinvesting the rest of my cash position when markets open on Tuesday  (here in UK).  Yes I am a market timer. Sue me.


LightStache

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #185 on: April 30, 2022, 08:57:15 AM »
After nine months of heavy cash allocation, I shifted back to my target allocation in Feb. when the S&P hit a 10% intraday correction.

I'm much more comfortable at this point because the markets aren't continuing an irrational march to unsustainable valuations. The higher it climbs the harder it falls.

Since I plan to FIRE in about five years, I'd be happy if equity markets have muted returns over that time so that we're closer to CAPE historical averages by the time I pull the plug on saving.

blue_green_sparks

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #186 on: April 30, 2022, 08:57:42 AM »
Terrified? Nah. I do think the total market index has some more suffering to do. Too bad I am not accumulating any more.

Travis

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #187 on: May 03, 2022, 09:08:56 PM »
Terrified? Nah. I do think the total market index has some more suffering to do. Too bad I am not accumulating any more.

I'm retiring the end of next year, and after TSP and IRA contributions are in everything else is cash for a future house down payment.  I'm hoping the time between now and retirement counts as my sequence of returns risk event to get it out of the way.

shureShote

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #188 on: May 04, 2022, 06:04:41 AM »
Terrified? Nah. I do think the total market index has some more suffering to do. Too bad I am not accumulating any more.

I'm retiring the end of next year, and after TSP and IRA contributions are in everything else is cash for a future house down payment.  I'm hoping the time between now and retirement counts as my sequence of returns risk event to get it out of the way.

Yeah, between inflation chewing on that cash, and the broad drawdown, you may very well be able to immediately check the box and having made it through 'your' sequence of returns risk. A great positive viewpoint.

I have several more years to go and have tried to think back to the feelings of 2009 to say 2014 and to how the bumpy rise from the GFC ashes felt. The other blips, from dotcom to Dec 2018 to covid, to all the other smallish ones, were all so fast (maybe not dotcom now that I reflect on it.) If what we are seeing today lasts for numerous years, including dumping down 20+% more, it will really be a good test for me personally still have confidence in our plan. That plan right now is buckets of VTSAX every month...but will need to shift to an exit plan in a couple years.

LightStache

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #189 on: May 05, 2022, 08:57:20 AM »
After nine months of heavy cash allocation, I shifted back to my target allocation in Feb. when the S&P hit a 10% intraday correction.

I'm much more comfortable at this point because the markets aren't continuing an irrational march to unsustainable valuations. The higher it climbs the harder it falls.

Since I plan to FIRE in about five years, I'd be happy if equity markets have muted returns over that time so that we're closer to CAPE historical averages by the time I pull the plug on saving.

OK so looking at the indexes this morning, I take this all back! ;)

ChpBstrd

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #190 on: May 05, 2022, 11:19:34 AM »
There is a case to be made for sitting in cash for a year or two, waiting out the coming recession, housing crisis, inflation panic, and/or financial crisis, and being ready to jump into an opportunity to buy in at valuations which are consistent with a 5%+ WR. We are all still used to a TINA, "everything bubble" world of ultra-low interest rates and have not yet thought out the opportunities involved if we could buy S&P500 index funds at PE ratios less than 15, preferreds yielding 8%, or A-rated corporate debt yielding 7% in a couple of years. People used to retire on just treasuries and annuities, and those days may come again for those with enough remaining money.

The downsides of such an approach are the odds of not having the guts to buy in a much scarier future if you're not willing to buy now, and the difficulty of increasing one's portfolio for a long time from earnings alone. The other downside comes if a mild recession is already occurring, inflation readings tank this summer, the Fed's rate hiking campaign goes on pause, and stocks rally 15%.

UltraStache

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #191 on: May 05, 2022, 01:36:46 PM »
I don't have much money; my retirement funds are quite low for my age.  However, I have just started heavily investing i.e. maxing 401k, IRA, +brokerage with the leftover.  I feel like this is a great time to be in my position as I will be DCA'ing into the market for the upcoming uncertain times.  Other than maxing out I-bonds(just bought $20k, may do another 20 as gifts) which will become my emergency fund, I'm all FXAIX.

SeattleCPA

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #192 on: May 05, 2022, 02:13:42 PM »
FWIW, and I have thought and written and wrung my hands a lot about this, I don't think the high valuations matter that much. Except for one area...

What I think does matter? The low expected returns I think those high valuations suggestion.

By my calculations, you need to save about twice as much money in order to end up where you want to end up. E.g., if long run returns are 3% vs 6%, you may need to double you monthly savings. That, to me, is the problem.

P.S. I don't calculate this "doubling" based on the 3% and the 6% but rather based on the Excel payment function. I'm also assuming that you need a bigger nestegg if the return on investment percentage is lower.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #193 on: May 05, 2022, 03:13:44 PM »
FWIW, and I have thought and written and wrung my hands a lot about this, I don't think the high valuations matter that much. Except for one area...

What I think does matter? The low expected returns I think those high valuations suggestion.

By my calculations, you need to save about twice as much money in order to end up where you want to end up. E.g., if long run returns are 3% vs 6%, you may need to double you monthly savings. That, to me, is the problem.

P.S. I don't calculate this "doubling" based on the 3% and the 6% but rather based on the Excel payment function. I'm also assuming that you need a bigger nestegg if the return on investment percentage is lower.

EarlyRetirementNow found that inflation is not correlated with the safety of retirement portfolios - but valuation is!

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2022/02/28/retirement-in-a-high-inflation-environment-swr-series-part-51/

Quote
Equity valuations matter the most. And recall, the CAEY is something that’s actually observable at the start of retirement. Trailing inflation has a positive (!) impact on the SWR and even with the perfect foresight of the future 30 years of inflation you can only hope for a whacky, not exactly monotone relationship between inflation and the safe withdrawal rate.

Hence, my assessment of the current macro and financial conditions: we should certainly be worried about the future and choose a conservative safe withdrawal rate. But that has nothing to do with inflation, and has everything to do with lofty equity valuations!

SeattleCPA

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #194 on: May 05, 2022, 03:23:03 PM »
Sorry I should have been more precise.

What I was doing is applying textbook Bayesian statistics to the question, does a high CAPE (over 30) correlate with traditional SWRs failing.

And, correct me if I'm wrong please, but I think the "traditional" SWR rate failures have not been high CAPE situations. It's 1966 and the related "start" dates which were followed by stagflation in 1970s that fail... And then arguably financial and banking crises in early 1900s.

For the record, few people are going to be more surprised at this than me... And I do think you get a little bump in failure rate probably but not much.

Tip: To explore this graphically, look at the shiller CAPE ratios chart, pick the high valuations, and then use portfolio visualizer to see how various portfolios would have fared.

P.S. I assume high CAPE means a very low return going forward. So maybe we think the same thing but are saying it differently. E.g., I believe the rather low Vanguard forward return estimates to be very reasonable. Basically what I'm using in my own modeling.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2022, 03:25:04 PM by SeattleCPA »

Mr. Green

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #195 on: May 05, 2022, 04:04:18 PM »
To me, moving to cash seems like a great way to end up in the company of those from 2008/09 who lost their shirt by selling and then missing the upswing. Not only do you miss the upswing, but you potentially lose 15% of the value of your money to inflation in the process? That's a dangerous game to play!

RunningintoFI

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #196 on: May 05, 2022, 04:40:53 PM »
Call me crazy but I'm feeling greedy right now! I know the market will be all over the place in the short term - likely more down than up in the immediate future with rate hikes and general recessionary pressures - but any time horizon over 3 years feels like the world will continue to march upwards.  There's just too much potential in the future of medicine, energy, and other industries that we don't even know exist yet to not be stoked for this buying opportunity. 

Wintergreen78

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #197 on: May 05, 2022, 07:28:59 PM »
To me, moving to cash seems like a great way to end up in the company of those from 2008/09 who lost their shirt by selling and then missing the upswing. Not only do you miss the upswing, but you potentially lose 15% of the value of your money to inflation in the process? That's a dangerous game to play!

Yep - a bunch of the 55-60 year olds I worked with in 2008/09 talked loudly about how much they lost and how they were moving everything to cash. I often wonder how that turned out for them…

Abe

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #198 on: May 05, 2022, 08:24:54 PM »
If you minimize your expenses relative to income, inflation shouldn’t have a big effect in long-term outlook unless it’s higher than stock returns on average. If that happens I guess you just have to work longer to save more? Nothing to be particularly terrified about.

MasterStache

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #199 on: May 06, 2022, 05:10:22 AM »
To answer the original question.... Hell no!

In fact I have more work than I can handle right now with my FIRE side gig. Having a desirable skill really pays off. I've decided to put off some re-renovations to my own home to hammer away more money despite not needing to. Analyzing the stock market just isn't my thing. Worrying about something I have zero control over isn't my thing either.