Author Topic: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?  (Read 10086 times)

PDXTabs

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #100 on: December 08, 2020, 04:36:07 PM »

cschx

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #101 on: December 08, 2020, 04:45:23 PM »
Terrified of the stock market since forever. But especially right now. Maybe someone can explain the difference between a Boglehead and a bulltard, the distinction is lost on me.

There's not enough bear porn in here... dropping some Hussman: Hypervaluation and the Option Value of Cash.

Quote
Presently, we observe measures of overextension that have been rare outside of market peaks such as March 2000 and November 2007. To the extent that history is a guide, I expect that the initial loss from recent highs will be rather abrupt. As we saw even in late-2018 and early this year, first leg down tends to be steep and disorienting, and it becomes psychologically difficult to sell well below the highs. That’s what keeps many investors holding on as prices decline further. For our part, we’re content to maintain a “locally” neutral outlook, and to let our existing safety nets take care of larger downside risks more or less automatically.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #102 on: December 08, 2020, 05:04:14 PM »
Terrified of the stock market since forever. But especially right now. Maybe someone can explain the difference between a Boglehead and a bulltard, the distinction is lost on me.

There's not enough bear porn in here... dropping some Hussman: Hypervaluation and the Option Value of Cash.

Quote
Presently, we observe measures of overextension that have been rare outside of market peaks such as March 2000 and November 2007. To the extent that history is a guide, I expect that the initial loss from recent highs will be rather abrupt. As we saw even in late-2018 and early this year, first leg down tends to be steep and disorienting, and it becomes psychologically difficult to sell well below the highs. That’s what keeps many investors holding on as prices decline further. For our part, we’re content to maintain a “locally” neutral outlook, and to let our existing safety nets take care of larger downside risks more or less automatically.

Wow, the last sentence was such concentrated bull---t that I'm surprised it didn't collapse on itself and go "Not with a bang but a whimper" *


*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hollow_Men , text effects by me, not the author.

PDXTabs

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #103 on: December 08, 2020, 05:10:46 PM »
Terrified of the stock market since forever. But especially right now. Maybe someone can explain the difference between a Boglehead and a bulltard, the distinction is lost on me.

There's not enough bear porn in here... dropping some Hussman: Hypervaluation and the Option Value of Cash.

Quote
Presently, we observe measures of overextension that have been rare outside of market peaks such as March 2000 and November 2007. To the extent that history is a guide, I expect that the initial loss from recent highs will be rather abrupt. As we saw even in late-2018 and early this year, first leg down tends to be steep and disorienting, and it becomes psychologically difficult to sell well below the highs. That’s what keeps many investors holding on as prices decline further. For our part, we’re content to maintain a “locally” neutral outlook, and to let our existing safety nets take care of larger downside risks more or less automatically.

Wow, the last sentence was such concentrated bull---t that I'm surprised it didn't collapse on itself and go "Not with a bang but a whimper" *


*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hollow_Men , text effects by me, not the author.

Right?!  Maintaining a neutral outlook and letting my existing safety nets take care of larger downside risks is basically my life strategy.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #104 on: December 08, 2020, 05:17:03 PM »
Terrified of the stock market since forever. But especially right now. Maybe someone can explain the difference between a Boglehead and a bulltard, the distinction is lost on me.

There's not enough bear porn in here... dropping some Hussman: Hypervaluation and the Option Value of Cash.

Quote
Presently, we observe measures of overextension that have been rare outside of market peaks such as March 2000 and November 2007. To the extent that history is a guide, I expect that the initial loss from recent highs will be rather abrupt. As we saw even in late-2018 and early this year, first leg down tends to be steep and disorienting, and it becomes psychologically difficult to sell well below the highs. That’s what keeps many investors holding on as prices decline further. For our part, we’re content to maintain a “locally” neutral outlook, and to let our existing safety nets take care of larger downside risks more or less automatically.

Wow, the last sentence was such concentrated bull---t that I'm surprised it didn't collapse on itself and go "Not with a bang but a whimper" *


*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hollow_Men , text effects by me, not the author.

Right?!  Maintaining a neutral outlook and letting my existing safety nets take care of larger downside risks is basically my life strategy.

Actually, when YOU say it it does make sense, and that is pretty much what I do too.   I guess I am hypocrisy writ small or something.

waltworks

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #105 on: December 08, 2020, 06:29:02 PM »
If I had a nickel for every time Hussman predicted doom...

Note that I'm not saying he's wrong. Sooner or later he's bound to be right. Could be this year!

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #106 on: December 08, 2020, 06:52:43 PM »
To be fair, over the past 20 years holding cash would be better than owning the flagship Hussman Strategic Growth so cash had some good option value.   

RWD

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #107 on: December 08, 2020, 07:08:08 PM »
Terrified of the stock market since forever. But especially right now. Maybe someone can explain the difference between a Boglehead and a bulltard, the distinction is lost on me.
Really? "Bulltard"? Classy... Also, Bogleheads tend to be extremely conservative...

There's not enough bear porn in here...
Did you not see the 44 bear threads I linked to on page 1? I think there is plenty of bears already.

Malcat

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #108 on: December 09, 2020, 06:12:08 AM »
Terrified of the stock market since forever. But especially right now. Maybe someone can explain the difference between a Boglehead and a bulltard, the distinction is lost on me.
Really? "Bulltard"? Classy... Also, Bogleheads tend to be extremely conservative...

There's not enough bear porn in here...
Did you not see the 44 bear threads I linked to on page 1? I think there is plenty of bears already.

I know right?

Like, welcome to the forum and maybe read a bit before jumping to conclusions?

The passive investing philosophy isn't that the market will never crash, it's that it's improbable that an individual investor will be able to predict market crashes in a way that they can realistically harness to increase their gains over time.

Just because I'm not stressing about a market that I cannot control does not mean I'm delusional about its performance.

Bear porn?
Yeesh, I just don't see the point. I see a ton of people angsting endlessly about it, but I don't see the benefit in that, or even the purpose. I don't sit in front of the mirror and cry every day that I'm getting older, and I don't sit in front of the computer chewing my fingernails off because the market will inevitably shit itself in the possibly near future.

Give me one good reason why I should be worried and I'll contemplate worrying about it. Until then, I'll keep focusing on what I consider to be far more important things.

dividendman

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #109 on: December 09, 2020, 09:32:45 AM »
Terrified of the stock market since forever. But especially right now. Maybe someone can explain the difference between a Boglehead and a bulltard, the distinction is lost on me.
Really? "Bulltard"? Classy... Also, Bogleheads tend to be extremely conservative...

There's not enough bear porn in here...
Did you not see the 44 bear threads I linked to on page 1? I think there is plenty of bears already.

I know right?

Like, welcome to the forum and maybe read a bit before jumping to conclusions?

The passive investing philosophy isn't that the market will never crash, it's that it's improbable that an individual investor will be able to predict market crashes in a way that they can realistically harness to increase their gains over time.

Just because I'm not stressing about a market that I cannot control does not mean I'm delusional about its performance.

Bear porn?
Yeesh, I just don't see the point. I see a ton of people angsting endlessly about it, but I don't see the benefit in that, or even the purpose. I don't sit in front of the mirror and cry every day that I'm getting older, and I don't sit in front of the computer chewing my fingernails off because the market will inevitably shit itself in the possibly near future.

Give me one good reason why I should be worried and I'll contemplate worrying about it. Until then, I'll keep focusing on what I consider to be far more important things.


Haha, exactly. The market tanked 30% just 9 months ago! What did I do then?!oh right... nothing, actually I rebalanced some bonds into stocks because it happened to coincide with my twice yearly rebalancing. But there was no panic selling or anything.

If it tanks 30-50% or more again? Meh, I'll just sigh a bit and continue with life I suppose?

ChpBstrd

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #110 on: December 09, 2020, 10:21:36 AM »
Don't ever google "bear porn" unless you already know what it is.

Malcat

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #111 on: December 09, 2020, 11:05:29 AM »
Terrified of the stock market since forever. But especially right now. Maybe someone can explain the difference between a Boglehead and a bulltard, the distinction is lost on me.
Really? "Bulltard"? Classy... Also, Bogleheads tend to be extremely conservative...

There's not enough bear porn in here...
Did you not see the 44 bear threads I linked to on page 1? I think there is plenty of bears already.

I know right?

Like, welcome to the forum and maybe read a bit before jumping to conclusions?

The passive investing philosophy isn't that the market will never crash, it's that it's improbable that an individual investor will be able to predict market crashes in a way that they can realistically harness to increase their gains over time.

Just because I'm not stressing about a market that I cannot control does not mean I'm delusional about its performance.

Bear porn?
Yeesh, I just don't see the point. I see a ton of people angsting endlessly about it, but I don't see the benefit in that, or even the purpose. I don't sit in front of the mirror and cry every day that I'm getting older, and I don't sit in front of the computer chewing my fingernails off because the market will inevitably shit itself in the possibly near future.

Give me one good reason why I should be worried and I'll contemplate worrying about it. Until then, I'll keep focusing on what I consider to be far more important things.


Haha, exactly. The market tanked 30% just 9 months ago! What did I do then?!oh right... nothing, actually I rebalanced some bonds into stocks because it happened to coincide with my twice yearly rebalancing. But there was no panic selling or anything.

If it tanks 30-50% or more again? Meh, I'll just sigh a bit and continue with life I suppose?

I literally haven't logged into my accounts since 2019. My money is being diverted elsewhere this year, because as I said, I have more important things to worry about at the moment, so I literally have no reason to even login to my investment accounts except for curiosity's sake, of which I have virtually none.

If I were someone contemplating living off of my investments in the near future, then yes, I would care, and I would implement plans to hedge against SORR, but otherwise, I don't get what the fuss is about.

shinn497

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #112 on: December 09, 2020, 12:40:38 PM »
Thanks yall, you inspired me to make this meme and Clif Asness liked it . My life is complete


J Boogie

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #113 on: December 09, 2020, 12:52:41 PM »
If anyone is looking for an ideal place to invest right now you could do a lot worse than data center REITs. They have cooled off to a safe entry point and the dividends they generate can give you some semblance of safe haven with minimal FOMO should the bull keep raging.

Specifically I recommend DLR. If you want an ETF they have one called SRVR, but I prefer DLR and CONE.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #114 on: December 09, 2020, 07:22:28 PM »
If anyone is looking for an ideal place to invest right now you could do a lot worse than data center REITs. They have cooled off to a safe entry point and the dividends they generate can give you some semblance of safe haven with minimal FOMO should the bull keep raging.

Specifically I recommend DLR. If you want an ETF they have one called SRVR, but I prefer DLR and CONE.

I've always wondered how these relatively small operators will fare against Amazon, Alibaba, and Microsoft. Seems at least as risky as office and retail REITs.

J Boogie

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #115 on: December 10, 2020, 09:07:48 AM »
If anyone is looking for an ideal place to invest right now you could do a lot worse than data center REITs. They have cooled off to a safe entry point and the dividends they generate can give you some semblance of safe haven with minimal FOMO should the bull keep raging.

Specifically I recommend DLR. If you want an ETF they have one called SRVR, but I prefer DLR and CONE.

I've always wondered how these relatively small operators will fare against Amazon, Alibaba, and Microsoft. Seems at least as risky as office and retail REITs.

That's a pretty good observation. CONE is smaller but DLR is pretty big. Regardless, DLR's size still cannot insulate it from the increase in purchasing power that outfits like AWS and Azure are increasingly able to flex on them. My understanding is that in some ways AWS and Azure are acting as middlemen, housing the information on behalf of their many customers who might have previously held leases directly with REITs like DLR at higher rates.

Growth in FFO (funds from operations, the most relevant REIT metric) for data center REITs has lagged over the past few years due to this phenomenon. So the bear case is that the the glory days are over and their valuation will need to come back in line with the rest of REITs. The bull case is that industry consolidation (M&A) can somewhat remedy this power imbalance and data center REITs will continue growing as the world increasingly becomes more digital, with 5G, blockchain and IOT coming to fruition.

So I'm under no impression that DLR and their peers can reverse the downward pressure on their pricing overnight, but I don't view the trend as inevitable and something that can make the land that DLR owns less valuable. Regarding the land value, I'll paste this snippet from a SA article:

The value of each data center is largely a function of its position along the internet backbone, the physical fiber-optic network that links every connected-device across the world. Properties within the backbone, or more precisely at the "intersection" of various networks, are able to provide higher-value network-based colocation and interconnection services, which command higher rent-per-MW and generally have significantly higher barriers to entry due to the inherent "network effects."

DLR owns many of these backbone locations, whereas CONE does not. However I am partially bullish on CONE because I am bullish on Texas.  (about half of CONE's data centers are in TX) I think the California exodus is not simply a clickbait celebrity trend - companies are moving, friends of mine are moving, and I think CONE's TX properties will become more valuable as data demand increases there.

3toesloth

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Re: Anyone Else Terrified of Stock Market Right Now?
« Reply #116 on: December 10, 2020, 05:27:31 PM »
I was in the same boat as Nihilist back in 2018. Been out of ETFs since and don't regret it at all even with the gains. A large portion of companies were not profitable before Covid and are even worse now. My portfolio consisted of Bond ETFs and some gold for most of the last two years. Now I'm running out of powder to by all the great cheap value stocks and keep finding more every day. When a company cannot make money during the "good" times (2019 and before) I don't think they will make money going forward when things get back to normal or even if they get bad. With valuations this insane, huge unemployment, zombie companies, and the like, I wouldn't be surprised by a 60-70% correction over the next few years. Since my retirement is soonish and my expenses low I'm not touching broad stock funds but could live off bond yields for a few years if I need to. Bonds may tank also but they tend to move less than stocks and recover quicker.

My advice is to check out Vanguard Equity-Income fund for a possible stock ETF or do some research into individual stocks. Bonds yield very little, but if you have enough of them. And of coarse everything depends on your time horizon, If I was 10 years or more out I would stick with 50/50 and just hammer money in.