I hate loosing. period. I feel the market is about to blow, as Dalio et al have stated.
i had a similar thought about a month ago -
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/coronavirus-recession-should-i-buy-bonds-now/i also kinda thought a moving average with some kind of buy sell box would work out to guide when to get out or get back in to the market
i just checked the s&p 500 over the coronavirus dip to see if i was right, to post a HA! got ya post here, i was wrong, se below for my check using a 30 day moving average (actual market numbers are approximate and rounded slightly)
Date / S&P 500 close / 30 day moving averge / Notes and comments2-21 / 3338 / 3316 / S&P500 peak
3-13 / 2711 / 3142 / ~5% below the 30 day moving average peak (when theoretically i would have sold stocks)
3-23 / 2237 / 2959 / ~market bottom
4-23 / 2799 / 2609 / 30 day moving average bottom
5-06 / 2848 / 2742 / ~5% above the 30 day moving average bottom (when i theoretically would buy back in)
you can above, using a 30 day moving average and a 5% up or down as a guide, i would have lost money.
long story short, i will just stick with stocks and not sell anything regardless of what the market does, you guys convinced me