Author Topic: anyone else struggling to not sell?  (Read 4021 times)

PaulMaxime

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #50 on: June 26, 2020, 11:24:19 AM »
Donít take this the wrong way but if you cannot stand to watch your investments drop 10/20/30/40% in value you should probably not EVER be in the stock market.  The drops and the illogic and the irrational ups and down are a FEATURE not a BUG.


This x 1000.

The absolute best thing for your money while you are still accumulating is a giant market crash. The last financial crisis is a great example of this.

My portfolio peaked in May 2008. Dropped 48% by end of Feb 2009. I continued to add money throughout this period.

I was back to my peak level in March 2010.

Market (S&P 500 Total return including dividends) did not recover until Feb 2011.  By that date I was up 44% over the total in May 2008.

Kept investing the same amount every month through the whole thing. It was scary but I sucked it up and kept going.

Crashes are your friend.

utaca

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #51 on: June 26, 2020, 12:28:08 PM »
Donít take this the wrong way but if you cannot stand to watch your investments drop 10/20/30/40% in value you should probably not EVER be in the stock market.  The drops and the illogic and the irrational ups and down are a FEATURE not a BUG.


This x 1000.

The absolute best thing for your money while you are still accumulating is a giant market crash. The last financial crisis is a great example of this.

My portfolio peaked in May 2008. Dropped 48% by end of Feb 2009. I continued to add money throughout this period.

I was back to my peak level in March 2010.

Market (S&P 500 Total return including dividends) did not recover until Feb 2011.  By that date I was up 44% over the total in May 2008.

Kept investing the same amount every month through the whole thing. It was scary but I sucked it up and kept going.

Crashes are your friend.

I take your point about the need to stay invested when the market drops significantly. But to use 2008 as an analogy, it would be as if following the failure of Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros (or the Covid first wave), the market almost immediately recovered, despite expected mass unemployment and years of further economic pain (current unemployment far exceeding that seen during the Great Recession). Instead, with Covid, public health authorities expect a potentially more deadly second wave - while in the Great Recession, governments around the world stepped in quickly to prop up failing banks, limiting further damage.

Obviously I don't have a crystal ball, and history is basically on the side of the perma-bull - but I don't think OP (and many others) are wrong to question the valuations at this moment and to be pessimistic about the future of the market and the economy.  I certainly would not advocate selling everything off - but, at the same time, I don't think it's unreasonable right now to build up cash reserves instead of making regular contributions. On the other hand, if the market was still where it was in March, I'd absolutely agree that it makes sense to keep contributing.

PaulMaxime

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #52 on: June 26, 2020, 01:13:02 PM »
Donít take this the wrong way but if you cannot stand to watch your investments drop 10/20/30/40% in value you should probably not EVER be in the stock market.  The drops and the illogic and the irrational ups and down are a FEATURE not a BUG.


This x 1000.

The absolute best thing for your money while you are still accumulating is a giant market crash. The last financial crisis is a great example of this.

My portfolio peaked in May 2008. Dropped 48% by end of Feb 2009. I continued to add money throughout this period.

I was back to my peak level in March 2010.

Market (S&P 500 Total return including dividends) did not recover until Feb 2011.  By that date I was up 44% over the total in May 2008.

Kept investing the same amount every month through the whole thing. It was scary but I sucked it up and kept going.

Crashes are your friend.

I take your point about the need to stay invested when the market drops significantly. But to use 2008 as an analogy, it would be as if following the failure of Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros (or the Covid first wave), the market almost immediately recovered, despite expected mass unemployment and years of further economic pain (current unemployment far exceeding that seen during the Great Recession). Instead, with Covid, public health authorities expect a potentially more deadly second wave - while in the Great Recession, governments around the world stepped in quickly to prop up failing banks, limiting further damage.

Obviously I don't have a crystal ball, and history is basically on the side of the perma-bull - but I don't think OP (and many others) are wrong to question the valuations at this moment and to be pessimistic about the future of the market and the economy.  I certainly would not advocate selling everything off - but, at the same time, I don't think it's unreasonable right now to build up cash reserves instead of making regular contributions. On the other hand, if the market was still where it was in March, I'd absolutely agree that it makes sense to keep contributing.

There's always a reason for pessimism. War. Inflation. Oil Crunch. Terrorism. Disease. Bad Election outcomes. Stocks too high. Stocks have been low forever ("The end of equities")

I've lived through "stagflation" in the 70's. Crazy interest rates in the 80's The crash of '87. The "dot com bomb" in the early 2000's. The real estate bubble and the crash of 2008, and now COVID-19.

There's always a reason that it's worse now than ever before. It's not. You can't predict.

I was seriously tempted to sell out at the beginning of this thing when it was clear that we weren't taking it seriously. I'm already at all time highs after the recovery. Can/will there be another major crash. Maybe. Maybe not. Who knows.

I remember March 2009, the bottom of the last crisis. There was a piece on 60 minutes where they were talking to all these people that had "lost everything" and some probably did because they were over-levered in real-estate. But those with a 401K while it looked grim at the time would have been fine in a couple years.

I've seen so many comments about people that sold out at the bottom last time and even a couple years back were "waiting for things to settle down a bit" before getting back in. What opportunity cost have they lost by sitting out one of the biggest bull markets in history.

ďFar more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.Ē Ė Peter Lynch

It was true then and it's still true now.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/08/peter-lynch-stock-market-losses/

bthewalls

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #53 on: June 26, 2020, 02:32:09 PM »
guys didnt mean to start a whole hassle. I read Dalio's comment about a 'lost decade for investor' and well....panicked a bit and the day trader in my deeper subconsious came out.. lol...its a bit like using the force....

my main portflio consists of Tesla, VWRL, VUSA and berk b.  I keep a second portfolio for small scale 'day trading' type stuff for learning how to read and screen stock basic on financials (love to learn options also...slow, but I am learning). Ive made substantial gains over the years, but cant have cake and eat it and know I have to accept the rollercoaster as timing is not an option. 

with my very basic method, I screened out some suffering but kinda largish sized oil stock in dip last march/april for short investment, that had reasonable financials, CNQ (+39%), IMO (+27%) and SOI (+17%). but there only short for the purpuse of raising captital for more indexes.

Alot of luv to who ever insulted me lol....very far from stupid, just inexperienced but learning volumes from the old timers here....you know who you all are!

love the forum.

Baz


joe189man

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #54 on: June 26, 2020, 03:14:44 PM »


I hate loosing. period. I feel the market is about to blow, as Dalio et al have stated.



i had a similar thought about a month ago - https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/coronavirus-recession-should-i-buy-bonds-now/

i also kinda thought a moving average with some kind of buy sell box would work out to guide when to get out or get back in to the market

i just checked the s&p 500 over the coronavirus dip to see if i was right, to post a HA! got ya post here, i was wrong, se below for my check using a 30 day moving average (actual market numbers are approximate and rounded slightly)

Date / S&P 500 close / 30 day moving averge /  Notes and comments

2-21 / 3338 / 3316 / S&P500 peak
3-13 / 2711 / 3142 / ~5% below the 30 day moving average peak (when theoretically i would have sold stocks)
3-23 / 2237 / 2959 / ~market bottom
4-23 / 2799 / 2609 / 30 day moving average bottom
5-06 / 2848 / 2742 / ~5% above the 30 day moving average bottom (when i theoretically would buy back in)

you can above, using a 30 day moving average and a 5% up or down as a guide, i would have lost money.

long story short, i will just stick with stocks and not sell anything regardless of what the market does, you guys convinced me



The_Big_H

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #55 on: June 26, 2020, 11:28:39 PM »
guys didnt mean to start a whole hassle. I read Dalio's comment about a 'lost decade for investor' and well....panicked a bit and the day trader in my deeper subconsious came out.. lol...its a bit like using the force....

my main portflio consists of Tesla, VWRL, VUSA and berk b.  I keep a second portfolio for small scale 'day trading' type stuff for learning how to read and screen stock basic on financials (love to learn options also...slow, but I am learning). Ive made substantial gains over the years, but cant have cake and eat it and know I have to accept the rollercoaster as timing is not an option. 

with my very basic method, I screened out some suffering but kinda largish sized oil stock in dip last march/april for short investment, that had reasonable financials, CNQ (+39%), IMO (+27%) and SOI (+17%). but there only short for the purpuse of raising captital for more indexes.

Alot of luv to who ever insulted me lol....very far from stupid, just inexperienced but learning volumes from the old timers here....you know who you all are!

love the forum.

Baz


Why would such a clearly sophisticated investor need to ask a bunch of mostly-passive investors if its "time to sell it all" (shouldn't you know and be telling us??)  Kinda' like a self declared poker shark sitting down and asking if a flush beats a straight. 

(PT day trading, considering options, screening financials , 2 out of 4 main portfolio line items are single stocks = someone who clearly thinks they are a sophisticated investor).

As far as options... Options are for people for whom Russian Roulette is not risky enough.


While we are playing with comparisons here: 
OP: "I hate to see my hard earned portfolio significantly drop in value"
also OP: Owns TSLA as a line item in his main portfolio and plays around in individual oil stocks.
This is like someone who doesn't like to get hit signing up to play (American) football.



« Last Edit: June 26, 2020, 11:35:29 PM by The_Big_H »

Monerexia

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #56 on: June 26, 2020, 11:40:25 PM »
Nope, another ~30K in in past 30 days. I wished hard for a deep, long depression and hopefully I have gotten my wish. The best place in the universe to be is well employed during a depression.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #57 on: June 27, 2020, 04:30:29 AM »
OP clearly does not have the temperament to hold as much stocks as he does and should either halve his equity allocation and/or give his money to an investment advisor and gladly pay them 1% to stop them doing stupid stuff.
So OP is "doing stupid stuff" when they haven't done anything yet?
Rather than insult the OP, look at your suggestion to pay 1% of assets... is that "doing stupid stuff"?
1% to protect the investor with poor temperament from their biggest weakness, ie themselves, is a very small price to pay. We canít all be geniuses like you.
Given your track record of being wrong, I might have to question my genius.


I hate loosing. period. I feel the market is about to blow, as Dalio et al have stated.
... I know timing is impossible. I'll just have to sit back and watch it drop and recover over time....really struggling to not go to cash at moment.
You're doing the right thing so far.  It may help to read about stock market history, so you can put years like this one in historical context.  "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" is a classic backed by decades of stock market history.

I suspect your portfolio isn't just 100% Vanguard Total Stock Market.  When you decide certain stocks are better than the market, you add another decision to your life.  Should you buy BRK.B?  When do you sell it?  And so on.  If you aim for just the total stock market, you can simplify that decision, which makes investing easier.

You might think you're using emotions and data to make these investment decisions, but I'd suggest something you might be missing: out of sight, out of mind.  Try looking at your portfolio less often... can you look just once a week?  Once every several weeks?  That could make it easier to stick with it.  Good luck.

ChpBstrd

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #58 on: June 28, 2020, 04:34:19 PM »
Have permabulls made shittons of money for the past few decades?
Oh yes.

Does past performance indicate future performance?
Eh... Most investors will say no when directly asked the question, but when asked why everyone should have a high stock allocation they point to history. Pressed on the discrepancy, they'll say that past performance indicates only long term future performance. "Stocks always go up in the long run."

Do stocks always go up in all markets or only in the US indices?
Well, obviously there are some markets that have NOT gone consistently up over the course of decades...
https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/spain/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/slovenia/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/serbia/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/malta/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/bangladesh/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-arab-emirates/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/botswana/stock-market

So does that mean the US market could take a long-term deviation from its upward trend, like other countries have experienced?What if we tried to fail... like elected incompetent leaders, refused to control a pandemic, amassed massive private and public debts, or enacted policies that exacerbated bubbles and discouraged demographic growth?
Not possible. The stock market would go up regardless of anything because it's the U.S.

I love this. And I also recognize that over the history of the US markets, a lot of crazy things have happened (oil embargo; Cuban missile crisis). So what's your AA @ChpBstrd ?

56.5% cash
28% US stocks
6% US bonds
5.5% REITs
4% International stocks

Some, but not most, of the cash is tied up in cash-secured options trades. Additionally, some, but not all, of the stocks are hedged with options. Then there are a few long options that probably count as equity. Personal Capital doesn't correctly allocate most of this stuff!


bthewalls

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #59 on: June 28, 2020, 05:09:29 PM »
Mustache and a half
Not a fan of berk?...lack of dividend or relatively poor performance In recent years?

There a short term for me...Iím assuming when the real crash comes theyíll buy with the 120bn and be first up before the index funds, which I feel are over priced. Iíll sell then and covert to visa or similar

I feel berk is on sale ish

Baz

ender

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #60 on: June 28, 2020, 08:47:27 PM »
I guess I am since I forgot to rebalance this year.

Hm. Oh well.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #61 on: June 29, 2020, 06:34:31 AM »
Mustache and a half
Not a fan of berk?...lack of dividend or relatively poor performance In recent years?

There a short term for me...Iím assuming when the real crash comes theyíll buy with the 120bn and be first up before the index funds, which I feel are over priced. Iíll sell then and covert to visa or similar

I feel berk is on sale ish
I respect Warren Buffet's ability, but I think his hands are tied: he runs what was the #6 company on the S&P 500, so he has to make huge investments to impact performance.  I was very surprised to learn he didn't buy deeply discounted stocks, and has mostly sold stocks during this crisis.  It's unlike him - so maybe he knows the markets will get worse?

Rather than invest in BRK.B, you might read up on factor investing, and "quality" and "profitability".  Buffet discovered them and didn't share them for decades, but academics eventually caught up.  A multi-factor fund that includes those could approximate what Buffet would do if he could buy small cap stocks.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #62 on: June 29, 2020, 06:38:58 AM »
Should I even mention that I sold some of my portfolio last week?  Not out of fear or struggling, but predicting COVID-19 getting worse.  The numbers and data show it happening, but people still listen to governors who deny the problem (TX, FL).  When hospitals are full, their denials won't work.

It's possible I'm wrong and treatments/vaccines rescue everyone from a another stock drop.  But I predict stocks will fall lower over the next weeks, and I hope to spot a local bottom before the news media do.

Retire-Canada

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #63 on: June 29, 2020, 07:31:20 AM »
I'm just waiting on Q2 dividends to hit my investment account and I'll be buying. :)

SimpleCycle

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #64 on: June 29, 2020, 08:34:29 AM »
This is slightly orthogonal to the original topic, but when people, especially young people, ask me about finances, I always recommend William J. Bernstein's "If You Can", which is an incredibly prescient title for a 17 page booklet about how and why to be a passive index investor.  To him, the power is in accumulation and staying in for the long haul, and he points out that this is incredibly difficult for most people to actually implement, thus the title.

He outlines all the reasons why that is difficult and provides readings to address each point.  Reason number three in his estimation is not understanding market history and that markets are cyclical.  He recommends two books to understand this: "Devil Take the Hindmost" by Edward Chancellor and "The Great Depression: A Diary" by Benjamin Roth.

The fact is that most investors will see overzealous boom times and absolute bust times during their investing lives.  We have seen ample evidence that timing the market is impossible, but a huge number of people still believe they can do it.  Same with stock picking and active management.  And yet people are so focused on year to year (or moment to moment) returns that they miss that the only way to win at those things is to not play.

bthewalls

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #65 on: June 29, 2020, 11:13:24 AM »
Should I even mention that I sold some of my portfolio last week?  Not out of fear or struggling, but predicting COVID-19 getting worse.  The numbers and data show it happening, but people still listen to governors who deny the problem (TX, FL).  When hospitals are full, their denials won't work.

It's possible I'm wrong and treatments/vaccines rescue everyone from a another stock drop.  But I predict stocks will fall lower over the next weeks, and I hope to spot a local bottom before the news media do.

Agree....I think the media is blind to how bad it is and will be.

On the other hand, if what dalio says is true, were in for a hard few years I.e. lost decade for investors..

ChpBstrd

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #66 on: June 29, 2020, 03:37:02 PM »
Should I even mention that I sold some of my portfolio last week?  Not out of fear or struggling, but predicting COVID-19 getting worse.  The numbers and data show it happening, but people still listen to governors who deny the problem (TX, FL).  When hospitals are full, their denials won't work.

It's possible I'm wrong and treatments/vaccines rescue everyone from a another stock drop.  But I predict stocks will fall lower over the next weeks, and I hope to spot a local bottom before the news media do.

Agree....I think the media is blind to how bad it is and will be.

On the other hand, if what dalio says is true, were in for a hard few years I.e. lost decade for investors..

We were heading for a hard few years or a lost decade before COVID-19, due to declining productivity, aging demographics, rising debt, and high valuations. And that was back when unemployment was 4% instead of >20%. It's very weird to see stocks as high as they are. It's as if the universe looked down upon investors and kindly decided to give them a second chance to sell, a reprieve from the reality of greatly reduced consumer spending and greatly increased bankruptcies.

Meanwhile, on a recent interstate trip I noticed all the chain restaurants had full parking lots. Texas Roadhouse had people tightly packed outside the door waiting to get in. Home Depot was almost out of parking. Not a mask in sight. We're still in the denial phase. The panic phase will arrive eventually.

bthewalls

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #67 on: June 29, 2020, 04:15:27 PM »
Should I even mention that I sold some of my portfolio last week?  Not out of fear or struggling, but predicting COVID-19 getting worse.  The numbers and data show it happening, but people still listen to governors who deny the problem (TX, FL).  When hospitals are full, their denials won't work.

It's possible I'm wrong and treatments/vaccines rescue everyone from a another stock drop.  But I predict stocks will fall lower over the next weeks, and I hope to spot a local bottom before the news media do.

Agree....I think the media is blind to how bad it is and will be.

On the other hand, if what dalio says is true, were in for a hard few years I.e. lost decade for investors..

We were heading for a hard few years or a lost decade before COVID-19, due to declining productivity, aging demographics, rising debt, and high valuations. And that was back when unemployment was 4% instead of >20%. It's very weird to see stocks as high as they are. It's as if the universe looked down upon investors and kindly decided to give them a second chance to sell, a reprieve from the reality of greatly reduced consumer spending and greatly increased bankruptcies.

Meanwhile, on a recent interstate trip I noticed all the chain restaurants had full parking lots. Texas Roadhouse had people tightly packed outside the door waiting to get in. Home Depot was almost out of parking. Not a mask in sight. We're still in the denial phase. The panic phase will arrive eventually.

Totally agree...., it should present a decent buying period were stock is reasonably priced. But the resulting hardship will be severe.

Iím curious to see at what point in a slump berk will buy and what they will aiM for.

 B

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #68 on: June 29, 2020, 10:38:47 PM »
... We were heading for a hard few years or a lost decade before COVID-19, due to declining productivity, aging demographics, rising debt, and high valuations. And that was back when unemployment was 4% instead of >20% ...
I have a big blind spot on how aging demographics impacts U.S. stocks.  I've seen detailed posts you've made - would you consider starting a new topic about it?  Especially why the U.S. will follow Japan, and other examples aging faster than the U.S. (Italy?)... conversely, foreign countries without those problems.

ChpBstrd

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #69 on: June 30, 2020, 11:50:23 AM »
... We were heading for a hard few years or a lost decade before COVID-19, due to declining productivity, aging demographics, rising debt, and high valuations. And that was back when unemployment was 4% instead of >20% ...
I have a big blind spot on how aging demographics impacts U.S. stocks.  I've seen detailed posts you've made - would you consider starting a new topic about it?  Especially why the U.S. will follow Japan, and other examples aging faster than the U.S. (Italy?)... conversely, foreign countries without those problems.

So much has been written on the subject by people so much smarter than me that it would be a waste of both our time for me to recap their work. Here are good examples:

https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/speeches/sp-20171116-demographics-and-their-implications-for-the-economy-and-policy.aspx

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Emerging-Asia-should-learn-from-Japan-s-demographic-experience

https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGDEMOG.pdf

There are also people who think demographic aging is not a problem - the Vanguard strategy team, for example, is not overly concerned (but their flat consumption data is based on the US's inflated healthcare costs - arguably in a different healthcare system spending would be much lower).

Morpheus

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Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #70 on: August 13, 2020, 08:10:19 PM »
Should I even mention that I sold some of my portfolio last week?  Not out of fear or struggling, but predicting COVID-19 getting worse.  The numbers and data show it happening, but people still listen to governors who deny the problem (TX, FL).  When hospitals are full, their denials won't work.

It's possible I'm wrong and treatments/vaccines rescue everyone from a another stock drop.  But I predict stocks will fall lower over the next weeks, and I hope to spot a local bottom before the news media do.

Agree....I think the media is blind to how bad it is and will be.

On the other hand, if what dalio says is true, were in for a hard few years I.e. lost decade for investors..

We were heading for a hard few years or a lost decade before COVID-19, due to declining productivity, aging demographics, rising debt, and high valuations. And that was back when unemployment was 4% instead of >20%. It's very weird to see stocks as high as they are. It's as if the universe looked down upon investors and kindly decided to give them a second chance to sell, a reprieve from the reality of greatly reduced consumer spending and greatly increased bankruptcies.

Meanwhile, on a recent interstate trip I noticed all the chain restaurants had full parking lots. Texas Roadhouse had people tightly packed outside the door waiting to get in. Home Depot was almost out of parking. Not a mask in sight. We're still in the denial phase. The panic phase will arrive eventually.

Panic phase is long gone. The Fed, who is able to manipulate the stock market, is giving you a free insurance against a big fall in equities, why won't you take it? They were only getting started with QE and they have more tools at thier disposal such as yield curve control and buying equities (with approval from congress).
Fed actions also increase inflation fears which drive the price of equities even further.