Author Topic: anyone else struggling to not sell?  (Read 6851 times)

bthewalls

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 395
  • Location: ireland/northern ireland
anyone else struggling to not sell?
« on: June 24, 2020, 12:45:04 PM »
guys
short and sweet one.

I hate loosing. period. I feel the market is about to blow, as Dalio et al have stated.

Im in market for at least another 15+ years so Im ok for time, but I hate to see my hard earned portfolio signfincantly drop in value.  I know timing is impossible. I'll just have to sit back and watch it drop and recover over time....really struggling to not go to cash at moment.

Anyone else feel like this? 

Baz

kenmoremmm

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 717
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2020, 12:48:38 PM »
yep. hard to believe market valuations now are similar to what they were when unemployment was <4% and businesses were crushing it.

bthewalls

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 395
  • Location: ireland/northern ireland
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2020, 12:58:30 PM »
You just gonna sit with it rather than risk timing?...god it sucks

The_Big_H

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 168
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2020, 01:12:56 PM »
Donít take this the wrong way but if you cannot stand to watch your investments drop 10/20/30/40% in value you should probably not EVER be in the stock market.  The drops and the illogic and the irrational ups and down are a FEATURE not a BUG.

The math has showed time and time again the long term winning strategy is to buy and hold through all the chaos. Keep the course. You cannot time the market.

Professionals struggle to time the market. You are not a professional. If you could time the market with regular ability then you should quit your job and go make a few billion because anyone with real market timing skills should be able to make billions.

If anyone gives you advice on how to time the market or what / when to buy and sell  consider:
why are they telling you?
1)They should be so rich as to be too busy sniffing coke off a hookers ass on their private yacht to talk to you. 
2) as ability to time markets regularly would be a billion dollar skill. Why the heck would they ever want to tell you, for free (or 1%)?

also. Anyone who could do this would not be able to for long...  every other trader in the world would watch their moves and copy them. Thereby killing the advantage (secrets out).

Remember the guy that knew madoff was a fraud before anyone else?  He saw madoff was always winning in the market for decades.  That was the clue he mathematically knew anyone with a long term market Beating winning record had to be a fraud.

So. Long story short. Unless you are a professional who has discovered and kept secret the elusive ďalways Win never loseĒ strategy, and are not a fraud/cheating. You only serve to hurt your self by trying to dance in and out.

The_Big_H

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 168
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2020, 01:20:59 PM »
More to my point. Wild ups and downs are a feature. A GOOD feature. You want drops? 

Yes!

Why?

Well they represent golden buying opportunities. Temporary sales and time to aggressively buy and opportunistically rebalance.

 Even if you donít do a thing to your automatic buying the drops are like market timing built in for you.  Stocks drop 40% well guess what you are buying 40% MORE shares without touching a thing.

This is how one is able to recover from a dip and actually get back to their previous  high before the market gets back to its previous high.

If a market goes from 29,000 to 19,000 and then one day climbs back to 29,000 youíll actually be ahead and have a gain (if you regularly buy and hold)  for that time period despite the market not moving an inch!  IF you rebalance and buy a bit more aggressively on the way down your profits will be even larger.

If we didnít have these drops you couldnít do that.  Again a FEATURE, not a BUG.

Markets go up you make money now
Markets go down youíll make money buying one sale.
Markets stay the same.... you still get dividends

Car Jack

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2143
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2020, 01:28:31 PM »
really struggling to not go to cash at moment.

Anyone else feel like this? 


Uh.....no.

ixtap

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4579
  • Age: 51
  • Location: SoCal
    • Our Sea Story
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2020, 01:32:46 PM »
Why do so many people always want to sell after a fall?

The ones who sell on the way up I almost get, but why after you missed the peak?

Mr. Green

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4533
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Wilmington, NC
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2020, 01:38:32 PM »
Why do so many people always want to sell after a fall?

The ones who sell on the way up I almost get, but why after you missed the peak?
Nothing like thinking there's going to be a drop, it never materializes, and then you're still sitting on cash after another 15% rise to make you feel like an idiot. Who knows if that will happen but it would suck to find out the hard way.

EverythingisNew

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 123
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2020, 02:11:23 PM »
Don’t anticipate events, but if it’s statistically 100% you might miss out on market exuberance but you won’t miss the earnings and the fundamentals!
« Last Edit: March 01, 2022, 04:50:05 AM by KateFIRE »

RWD

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6597
  • Location: Arizona
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2020, 02:21:54 PM »
Anyone else feel like this? 

Nope.


1/2013  [SP500 = 1462]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/is-now-a-bad-time-to-invest-in-stock-index-funds/
5/2013  [1583]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/starting-today!/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/$80k-sitting-in-cash-bc-scared-of-high-flying-stock-mkt-punch-me/
10/2013  [1695]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stock-market-expensive-now-alternatives/
5/2014  [1884]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stock-market-is-high-am-i-too-late/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/is-the-stock-market-too-expensive-to-get-back-in/
7/2014  [1973]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/current-market-has-me-scared-to-invest/
9/2014  [2002]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/is-it-a-good-time-to-invest-new-money/
10/2014  [1946]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/stock-market-would-you-buy-now-or-wait/
1/2015  [2058]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stock-market-should-i-be-concerned/
3/2015  [2117]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/talk-me-out-of-timing-the-australian-market/
12/2015  [2103]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/where-to-put-a-large-windfall-with-stock-market-near-all-time-highs/
1/2016  [2013]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/about-to-sell-everything-talk-me-off-the-ledge-(or-push-me-off)-please!/
4/2016 [2073]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/
2/2017  [2280]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/does-anyone-think-we-are-in-a-bubble/
4/2017  [2359]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/
6/2017  [2430]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/continue-the-blog-conversation/recession-coming/
8/2017  [2476]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/getting-scared-of-stock-market/
1/2018  [2696]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/nervous-about-the-market/
3/2018  [2678]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/when-would-you-get-back-in/
5/2018  [2655]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/investing-in-a-bull-market/
6/2018  [2735]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/moving-to-cash-market-timing-can%27t-believe-it/
10/2018  [2925]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/sell-index-funds-now-for-down-payment-during-recession/
2/2019  [2707]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/welp-i'm-going-to-take-a-stab-at-timing-the-market/
4/2019  [2867]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/buy-vtsax-now-while-its-this-high-or-wait-till-a-drop/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/how-concerned-are-you-about-the-everything-bubble/
5/2019  [2924]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/scared-of-investing-in-the-stock-market-now/
6/2019  [2890]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/uk-tax-discussion/global-index-tracker-is-so-high!-do-i-just-keep-putting-my-money-into-it-anyway/
7/2019 [3026]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/would-you-106836/
8/2019 [2889]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/vtsax-and-a-looming-recession/
9/2019 [2978]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/recession-in-2-ish-years-scale-and-nature/
10/2019 [2986]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/advice-needed-108726/
11/2019 [3110]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/questions-from-37yr-old-that-very-recently-became-serious-about-fi/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/where-to-invest-my-cash-now/
12/2019 [3169]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/help!-i-dont-know-where-to-start/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/the-old-excuses-for-down-swings-and-a-reality-yet-we-are-at-all-time-highs!/
1/2020 [3296]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/what-to-do-with-a-large-sum-of-money-bad-time-to-buy-index-funds/
2/2020 [3345]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/real-estate-and-landlording/in-a-pickle/
6/2020 [3125]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/august-is-when-it-all-implodes/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/should-i-move-my-bond-etf-to-money-market-fund-or-cd/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/anyone-else-struggling-to-not-sell/

Miscellaneous
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/%27but-right-now-the-market-is-at-an-all-time-high-%27/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/the-great-market-crash-of-2016!/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/how-to-deal-with-losing-$117k-in-stock-market/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/so-we're-basically-on-track-for-a-bear-market-by-tomorrow/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/anyone-else-feeling-depressed-about-global-equities-10-year-outlook/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stocks-will-only-return-4-annually-for-next-decade-john-bogle/

ysette9

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8930
  • Age: 2020
  • Location: Bay Area at heart living in the PNW
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2020, 02:26:59 PM »
Anyone else feel like this? 

Nope.


1/2013  [SP500 = 1462]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/is-now-a-bad-time-to-invest-in-stock-index-funds/
5/2013  [1583]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/starting-today!/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/$80k-sitting-in-cash-bc-scared-of-high-flying-stock-mkt-punch-me/
10/2013  [1695]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stock-market-expensive-now-alternatives/
5/2014  [1884]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stock-market-is-high-am-i-too-late/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/is-the-stock-market-too-expensive-to-get-back-in/
7/2014  [1973]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/current-market-has-me-scared-to-invest/
9/2014  [2002]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/is-it-a-good-time-to-invest-new-money/
10/2014  [1946]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/stock-market-would-you-buy-now-or-wait/
1/2015  [2058]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stock-market-should-i-be-concerned/
3/2015  [2117]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/talk-me-out-of-timing-the-australian-market/
12/2015  [2103]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/where-to-put-a-large-windfall-with-stock-market-near-all-time-highs/
1/2016  [2013]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/about-to-sell-everything-talk-me-off-the-ledge-(or-push-me-off)-please!/
4/2016 [2073]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/
2/2017  [2280]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/does-anyone-think-we-are-in-a-bubble/
4/2017  [2359]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/
6/2017  [2430]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/continue-the-blog-conversation/recession-coming/
8/2017  [2476]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/getting-scared-of-stock-market/
1/2018  [2696]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/nervous-about-the-market/
3/2018  [2678]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/when-would-you-get-back-in/
5/2018  [2655]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/investing-in-a-bull-market/
6/2018  [2735]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/moving-to-cash-market-timing-can%27t-believe-it/
10/2018  [2925]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/sell-index-funds-now-for-down-payment-during-recession/
2/2019  [2707]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/welp-i'm-going-to-take-a-stab-at-timing-the-market/
4/2019  [2867]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/buy-vtsax-now-while-its-this-high-or-wait-till-a-drop/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/how-concerned-are-you-about-the-everything-bubble/
5/2019  [2924]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/scared-of-investing-in-the-stock-market-now/
6/2019  [2890]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/uk-tax-discussion/global-index-tracker-is-so-high!-do-i-just-keep-putting-my-money-into-it-anyway/
7/2019 [3026]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/would-you-106836/
8/2019 [2889]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/vtsax-and-a-looming-recession/
9/2019 [2978]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/recession-in-2-ish-years-scale-and-nature/
10/2019 [2986]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/advice-needed-108726/
11/2019 [3110]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/questions-from-37yr-old-that-very-recently-became-serious-about-fi/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/where-to-invest-my-cash-now/
12/2019 [3169]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/help!-i-dont-know-where-to-start/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/the-old-excuses-for-down-swings-and-a-reality-yet-we-are-at-all-time-highs!/
1/2020 [3296]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/what-to-do-with-a-large-sum-of-money-bad-time-to-buy-index-funds/
2/2020 [3345]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/real-estate-and-landlording/in-a-pickle/
6/2020 [3125]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/august-is-when-it-all-implodes/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/should-i-move-my-bond-etf-to-money-market-fund-or-cd/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/anyone-else-struggling-to-not-sell/

Miscellaneous
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/%27but-right-now-the-market-is-at-an-all-time-high-%27/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/the-great-market-crash-of-2016!/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/how-to-deal-with-losing-$117k-in-stock-market/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/so-we're-basically-on-track-for-a-bear-market-by-tomorrow/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/anyone-else-feeling-depressed-about-global-equities-10-year-outlook/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stocks-will-only-return-4-annually-for-next-decade-john-bogle/
We need to make this a separate sticky thread pinned at the top of the Investing sub thread.

Anyone agree? @arebalspy for visibility

OurTown

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1372
  • Age: 54
  • Location: Tennessee
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #11 on: June 24, 2020, 02:27:34 PM »
Maybe he is trying to say the TOP IS IN!!!!!!!

ysette9

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8930
  • Age: 2020
  • Location: Bay Area at heart living in the PNW
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #12 on: June 24, 2020, 02:32:35 PM »
I sold 90% and am in cash. The market is basically flat since I sold about 2 weeks ago. There is FAR more downside potential than upside. I feel confident about my decision. Iím up 10% this year which is great considering the circumstances. Iím just going to wait out the whole rest of the year or jump back in if there is another significant dip in the fall. Iíve market timed before and it seems to me that there is a point where the looming event is obvious, like the current rise in Covid continuing into the Fall. 100% sure that will happen! When the event is already in play but the market hasnít reacted, thatís a good market timing. Donít anticipate events, but if itís statistically 100% you might miss out on market exuberance but you wonít miss the earnings and the fundamentals!
Please check in with us over time on how your strategy is doing. To market time you have to be lucky two times: predicting when to get out and predicting when to get back in. My crystal ball is very hazy, but maybe you have a better one.

John Galt incarnate!

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2038
  • Location: On Cloud Nine
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #13 on: June 24, 2020, 02:40:26 PM »

.really struggling to not go to cash at moment.

Anyone else feel like this? 

Baz

I don't.

bthewalls

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 395
  • Location: ireland/northern ireland
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #14 on: June 24, 2020, 02:46:03 PM »
Shucks...what a kind bunch

Iíll eat some sugar and delete thread lol

Frankies Girl

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3899
  • Age: 86
  • Location: The oubliette.
  • Ghouls Just Wanna Have Funds!
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #15 on: June 24, 2020, 03:02:04 PM »
The market is a roller coaster at an amusement park.

It's a self-contained "thrill ride" that gives you the general idea of scary drops and crazy highs and gets the adrenaline pumping but isn't exactly dangerous as you don't try to exit the car while the ride is operating.

Hang onto the bar, enjoy the ride.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2020, 04:47:55 PM by Frankies Girl »

celerystalks

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 342
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #16 on: June 24, 2020, 03:08:49 PM »
guys
short and sweet one.

I hate loosing. period. I feel the market is about to blow, as Dalio et al have stated.

Im in market for at least another 15+ years so Im ok for time, but I hate to see my hard earned portfolio signfincantly drop in value.  I know timing is impossible. I'll just have to sit back and watch it drop and recover over time....really struggling to not go to cash at moment.

Anyone else feel like this? 

Baz

If your timeline is 15+ years and you are watching what is going on and considering selling, then my advice to you is that you are paying entirely too much attention to your portfolio. Stop looking.

EverythingisNew

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 123
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #17 on: June 24, 2020, 03:11:36 PM »
Shucks...what a kind bunch

Iíll eat some sugar and delete thread lol

Yeah I agree. Itís become a forum of know-it-all men. Every time I post someone advises that Iím not cut out to handle the emotions of the stock market. Men!

RWD

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6597
  • Location: Arizona
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #18 on: June 24, 2020, 03:17:33 PM »
Shucks...what a kind bunch

Iíll eat some sugar and delete thread lol


I think you could stand to lay off the pessimism a little... Your March posts have not aged well. The market is up 36% since the day you found it "hard to buy". Pick an asset allocation that lets you sleep at night and stop looking at the market.

This decline could go on for 2 months...itís great
I reckon bottom is still a bit off...im gambling 50% drop over all....I thin usa has some way to go yet.
is anyone finding it hard to buy at the moment, I am?

SP500 at 2000 sounds real, unless some rescue injection occurs, but I think its too early for that....I might wait another while!

guys does anyone foresee sp500 below 2000? is it possible?!
bottom is NOT NOT NOT  in!

Bottom will be in when USA is saturated with covid..

I bet my mother in law that I am right! Who taking bets?

Stimpy

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 274
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Middle of Nowhere
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #19 on: June 24, 2020, 03:18:40 PM »
guys
short and sweet one.

I hate loosing. period. I feel the market is about to blow, as Dalio et al have stated.

Im in market for at least another 15+ years so Im ok for time, but I hate to see my hard earned portfolio signfincantly drop in value.  I know timing is impossible. I'll just have to sit back and watch it drop and recover over time....really struggling to not go to cash at moment.

Anyone else feel like this? 

Baz

Nope.  Hell, I see the market crash and I ask for a bank loan!  (Ok not really!)

If your groceries go on sale in the market, do you toss all of your current ones out and wait for the price to go up... nope.   You get EXCITED cause it's cheaper to buy what you normally do! 

Same rules apply here.  The drop should NOT be an indicator of being a loss of your cash, unless of course you sell.  The drop should make you happy cause your getting more bang for your buck on what should be a normal purchases!

RWD

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6597
  • Location: Arizona
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #20 on: June 24, 2020, 03:20:55 PM »
Shucks...what a kind bunch

Iíll eat some sugar and delete thread lol

Yeah I agree. Itís become a forum of know-it-all men. Every time I post someone advises that Iím not cut out to handle the emotions of the stock market. Men!

That's weird, recently I've felt the forum has been much more full of pessimistic people than usual. Lots of threads about how everything is collapsing (or going to) and people moving to cash.

PDXTabs

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5160
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Vancouver, WA, USA
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #21 on: June 24, 2020, 03:37:21 PM »
No, not at all. I buy more every paycheck.

EDITed to add - where else would I put it? I view it as a safer long-term investment than cash or bonds. Have you seen the world lately, especially the USA? I certainly wouldn't want a bunch of extra US dollars right now.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2020, 03:42:12 PM by PDXTabs »

Freedomin5

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6540
    • FIRE Countdown
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #22 on: June 24, 2020, 04:07:51 PM »
Shucks...what a kind bunch

Iíll eat some sugar and delete thread lol

Yeah I agree. Itís become a forum of know-it-all men. Every time I post someone advises that Iím not cut out to handle the emotions of the stock market. Men!
Being in the stock market can be unsettling, but thatís why the whole premise of MMM investing is to invest in index funds, have an IPS, avoid constant rebalancing, avoid timing the market, etc. It is designed to mitigate exactly these panicky feelings. In response to the OP, no, I donít feel that way. I do secretly hope for another dip right around the time we are scheduled to rebalance and make our next fund purchase (we on buy every quarter). Also, Iím a woman, not a man, as are at least two of the posters above, not that that should make any difference.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2020, 04:24:55 PM by Freedomin5 »

Dee18

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2216
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #23 on: June 24, 2020, 04:16:26 PM »
You should choose the asset allocation that works for you.  I learned in 2008 that I was not comfortable with major losses.  I am generally a very logical person.  I know Collins and MMM and so many others are right about the market increasing over time.  I have been a risk taker in other ways, such as traveling around the world alone when I was young.  But I have chosen to have only half my money in equities.  I had a job I loved and I knew that I would be able to reach my goals with that level of risk.  I do not recommend 50% equities to anyone else because it is not the best way to accumulate money over a long time period.  But it makes me happier than having 90% of my money in equities.  You get to decide what's right for you. I think most of the people on MMM choose to accumulate sufficient money to live on in the most efficient way, and they have the stomach to handle the ride.  It's okay to make a different choice; just think what you want for the long term.

Laserjet3051

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 904
  • Age: 95
  • Location: Upper Peninsula (MI)
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #24 on: June 24, 2020, 04:24:12 PM »
it aint called the equity risk premium for nothing.

BTW, you are getting good advice here in this thread. Listen up, it may save you from making a million $ mistake.

:)

ChpBstrd

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6733
  • Location: A poor and backward Southern state known as minimum wage country
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #25 on: June 24, 2020, 04:31:34 PM »
Have permabulls made shittons of money for the past few decades?
Oh yes.

Does past performance indicate future performance?
Eh... Most investors will say no when directly asked the question, but when asked why everyone should have a high stock allocation they point to history. Pressed on the discrepancy, they'll say that past performance indicates only long term future performance. "Stocks always go up in the long run."

Do stocks always go up in all markets or only in the US indices?
Well, obviously there are some markets that have NOT gone consistently up over the course of decades...
https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/spain/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/slovenia/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/serbia/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/malta/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/bangladesh/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-arab-emirates/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/botswana/stock-market

So does that mean the US market could take a long-term deviation from its upward trend, like other countries have experienced?What if we tried to fail... like elected incompetent leaders, refused to control a pandemic, amassed massive private and public debts, or enacted policies that exacerbated bubbles and discouraged demographic growth?
Not possible. The stock market would go up regardless of anything because it's the U.S.



Paul der Krake

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5854
  • Age: 16
  • Location: UTC-10:00
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #26 on: June 24, 2020, 04:36:52 PM »
I'm of the strong opinion that the stock market is going to go apeshit over the summer when earnings truly reflect the economic shitshow that's currently unfolding.

But I've have strong opinions before. Some have been very right. Some have been very wrong. So I'm not selling.

I am, however, working towards going back to work to accumulate some more money.

Maenad

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 643
  • Location: Minneapolis 'burbs
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #27 on: June 24, 2020, 04:51:38 PM »
I'm not struggling for two reasons:

1. I was invested in 2008. That was a time when it honestly looked like the entire world's banking industry was going to collapse. I don't know if I can even convey how catastrophically bad that would be, and we were looking right at it. Economically-speaking, that was many times scarier than today, because,

2. The pandemic, while bad, isn't nearly as bad as it could be. The 1918 flu pandemic was far more deadly, and like H1N1 a few years back, killed the young and healthy. COVID is mainly taking out people like my parents, who aren't driving the consumer economy the way younger people do. The data we can find from 1918-1920 shows that the U.S. economy appeared to bounce back fairly quickly from that pandemic, so I think it's likely that once this pandemic passes, a lot of people will start spending more and economies will recover fairly quickly.

The main lesson I took away from 2008 was identifying the appropriate asset allocation that allows me to sleep at night at times like this. I retired this spring, and had created a de facto "bond/cash tent" because I'd planned on a bunch of capital expenditures this year. Instead, that cash will be tiding me over until things recover, and I can go several years living off of that and dividends before I need to actually sell any stocks or bonds.

I can't stress enough that if you're anxious about losing money, reduce your stock percentage in your asset allocation. There will be many many more crashes of 30% +/- 10% in your life, and if they're worrying you every time, you're going to spend a lot of time unhappy.

ysette9

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8930
  • Age: 2020
  • Location: Bay Area at heart living in the PNW
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #28 on: June 24, 2020, 05:07:31 PM »
Have permabulls made shittons of money for the past few decades?
Oh yes.

Does past performance indicate future performance?
Eh... Most investors will say no when directly asked the question, but when asked why everyone should have a high stock allocation they point to history. Pressed on the discrepancy, they'll say that past performance indicates only long term future performance. "Stocks always go up in the long run."

Do stocks always go up in all markets or only in the US indices?
Well, obviously there are some markets that have NOT gone consistently up over the course of decades...
https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/spain/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/slovenia/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/serbia/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/malta/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/bangladesh/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-arab-emirates/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/botswana/stock-market

So does that mean the US market could take a long-term deviation from its upward trend, like other countries have experienced?What if we tried to fail... like elected incompetent leaders, refused to control a pandemic, amassed massive private and public debts, or enacted policies that exacerbated bubbles and discouraged demographic growth?
Not possible. The stock market would go up regardless of anything because it's the U.S.
To me this is a good case for making sure you are diversified internationally. We are 60/40 US/rest of the world.

ixtap

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4579
  • Age: 51
  • Location: SoCal
    • Our Sea Story
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #29 on: June 24, 2020, 05:12:11 PM »
I am not sure what my gender identity might have to do with it, but I stick to my IPS, rather than trying to second guess myself every time there are market fluctuations.

ysette9

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8930
  • Age: 2020
  • Location: Bay Area at heart living in the PNW
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #30 on: June 24, 2020, 05:14:04 PM »
I'm not struggling for two reasons:

1. I was invested in 2008. That was a time when it honestly looked like the entire world's banking industry was going to collapse. I don't know if I can even convey how catastrophically bad that would be, and we were looking right at it. Economically-speaking, that was many times scarier than today, because,

2. The pandemic, while bad, isn't nearly as bad as it could be. The 1918 flu pandemic was far more deadly, and like H1N1 a few years back, killed the young and healthy. COVID is mainly taking out people like my parents, who aren't driving the consumer economy the way younger people do. The data we can find from 1918-1920 shows that the U.S. economy appeared to bounce back fairly quickly from that pandemic, so I think it's likely that once this pandemic passes, a lot of people will start spending more and economies will recover fairly quickly.

The main lesson I took away from 2008 was identifying the appropriate asset allocation that allows me to sleep at night at times like this. I retired this spring, and had created a de facto "bond/cash tent" because I'd planned on a bunch of capital expenditures this year. Instead, that cash will be tiding me over until things recover, and I can go several years living off of that and dividends before I need to actually sell any stocks or bonds.

I can't stress enough that if you're anxious about losing money, reduce your stock percentage in your asset allocation. There will be many many more crashes of 30% +/- 10% in your life, and if they're worrying you every time, you're going to spend a lot of time unhappy.
These are all great points.

I admit I was short up thread and that probably came across as cold. I am a woman and I am not worried or selling, but I have been around these parts for a while now so I have seen this question posed many times before.

What works for me is 1) self educating a ton on this forum, Bogleheads wiki, JL Collins, Mad Fientist, and others to understand how the stock market behaves and what to reasonably expect. 2) model my scenario on cFIREsim to get a feel for how different asset allocations respond, and 3) write an investment policy statement so I have a clear plan for what I am doing and why. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement

That last point is especially relevant in times like now. Why am I not panicking and selling? Because my plan tells me not to buy or sell based on market conditions (with the exception of rebalancing back to my target). I donít have to think about it now because I already thought about it a while ago when I had a cool head.

Mr. Green

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4533
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Wilmington, NC
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #31 on: June 24, 2020, 05:15:29 PM »
Shucks...what a kind bunch

Iíll eat some sugar and delete thread lol

Yeah I agree. Itís become a forum of know-it-all men. Every time I post someone advises that Iím not cut out to handle the emotions of the stock market. Men!
It wouldn't be the MMM forum if there weren't occasional facepunches. LOL!

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8790
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #32 on: June 24, 2020, 11:12:41 PM »
Anyone else feel like this?

Nope. I had no thought to sell during the earlier COVID Crash. I put more money into the market. I have no thought to sell now.

I don't know what's going to happen in a week or a month or a year and I feel like the best place for my money is for it to be invested for the long haul. Otherwise there will always be a reason to worry and pull my money out of the market. I'm pretty sure that will end badly for me if I did that.


facepalm

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 431
  • Location: California
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #34 on: June 25, 2020, 06:41:41 AM »
guys
short and sweet one.

I hate loosing. period. I feel the market is about to blow, as Dalio et al have stated.

Im in market for at least another 15+ years so Im ok for time, but I hate to see my hard earned portfolio signfincantly drop in value.  I know timing is impossible. I'll just have to sit back and watch it drop and recover over time....really struggling to not go to cash at moment.

Anyone else feel like this? 

Baz

Hmm. Perhaps you are not comfortable with your current asset allocation. If you don't mind, what is it?

I find that the best way to sleep a night when the market is going apeshit (like ever other week) is to have an asset allocation that I can live with. Correct asset allocation with do far more for your portfolio than will stock selection or market timing anyway (see Bernstein).

Also, ignore Ray Dallo, Kramer, and all those guys that claim they predicted the 2008 crash (they didn't). Ignore the news cycle. Pick an allocation (stocks, bonds, metals, cash) that you can live with. There will be ups and downs, but over time, your holdings will increase.

MustacheAndaHalf

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6656
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #35 on: June 25, 2020, 08:19:05 AM »
Some people distract themselves with an 80% core allocation (passive, like US total stock market) and then 20% with which they try to beat the market.  In my view, deciding what you will not risk is a key decision.

For me, I saw that COVID-19 would not be a mild problem.  US stock markets on March 11 offered a -4% discount on stocks, knowing both COVID-19 and an oil price war had begun.  The experts were right, the markets were wrong (markets and the news media were not familiar with exponential spread).  Even seeing that coming, I only sold down to 60% equities.  My thinking is that 60/40 is a perfectly respectable allocation for a retirement portfolio, so if I keep 60% equities, I'll avoid making severe mistakes.

That's how I'd view market timing: putting risk limits on the decisions, so you can't harm your portfolio permanently.  And again, the common figure I've heard is an 80% core portfolio and 20% used to play the market.  If most of your portfolio is invested in the market, and you do out perform the market with the rest... you have also outperformed the market overall.  Maybe 20% is enough?

lemonlyman

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 424
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #36 on: June 25, 2020, 08:37:13 AM »
Have permabulls made shittons of money for the past few decades?
Oh yes.

Does past performance indicate future performance?
Eh... Most investors will say no when directly asked the question, but when asked why everyone should have a high stock allocation they point to history. Pressed on the discrepancy, they'll say that past performance indicates only long term future performance. "Stocks always go up in the long run."

Do stocks always go up in all markets or only in the US indices?
Well, obviously there are some markets that have NOT gone consistently up over the course of decades...
https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/spain/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/slovenia/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/serbia/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/malta/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/bangladesh/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-arab-emirates/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/botswana/stock-market

So does that mean the US market could take a long-term deviation from its upward trend, like other countries have experienced?What if we tried to fail... like elected incompetent leaders, refused to control a pandemic, amassed massive private and public debts, or enacted policies that exacerbated bubbles and discouraged demographic growth?
Not possible. The stock market would go up regardless of anything because it's the U.S.

+1

Car Jack

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2143
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #37 on: June 25, 2020, 09:15:36 AM »
This really proves out Fidelity's study from a few years ago from their 401k investors.  They did an analysis and found that by a wide margin, the investors who outperformed everyone else was.......dead.  That's right.  A corpse does better than you do.  The lesson is that you need to leave your investments the hell alone.


Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8790
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #38 on: June 25, 2020, 09:31:44 AM »
This really proves out Fidelity's study from a few years ago from their 401k investors.  They did an analysis and found that by a wide margin, the investors who outperformed everyone else was.......dead.  That's right.  A corpse does better than you do.  The lesson is that you need to leave your investments the hell alone.

But this time is different!!!!!!! ;-)

RWD

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6597
  • Location: Arizona
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #39 on: June 25, 2020, 09:43:25 AM »
This really proves out Fidelity's study from a few years ago from their 401k investors.  They did an analysis and found that by a wide margin, the investors who outperformed everyone else was.......dead.  That's right.  A corpse does better than you do.  The lesson is that you need to leave your investments the hell alone.
What study?
https://saverocity.com/independentlyfinanced/the-fidelity-dead-accounts-study-is-fake-not-wrong/

Similar idea actually from Fidelity:
"When the value of your investments falls, it's only human to want to run for shelter. But the best investors donít. Instead, they maintain an allocation to stocks they can live with in good markets and bad.

The financial crisis of late 2008 and early 2009 when stocks dropped nearly 50% might have seemed a good time to run for safety in cash. But a Fidelity study of 1.5 million workplace savers found that those who stayed invested in the stock market during that time were far better off than those who headed for the sidelines."
https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/investing-ideas/six-habits-successful-investors

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 23224
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #40 on: June 25, 2020, 10:06:37 AM »
I sell (and buy) a couple times a year when I re-balance.

This is the benefit of having a good chunk of your asset allocation in bonds as well as stocks.  When stocks are high (as they are now), you buy bonds and sell stocks.  When stocks are low (as they may well be in the future), you buy stocks and sell bonds.

SimpleCycle

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1259
  • Location: Chicago
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #41 on: June 25, 2020, 10:25:05 AM »
Struggling to not sell tells you something important about your risk tolerance relative to your asset allocation.

There are a lot of 100% equities advocates on here, because it is the mathematically quickest way to FIRE.  But that doesn't mean it's the right AA for everyone.  If 100% equities feels wildly risky during uncertain times, you are almost certainly in too aggressive an asset allocation.

Ultimately, your AA comes down to two competing risks:
-the risk of capital loss due to market downturns
-the risk of under-earning on your assets relative to what you "need" to earn

During the accumulation phase, most people feel the second risk is bigger than the first.  They don't "need" the money they are socking away for FIRE and can afford to take paper losses as long as they don't panic and sell.  As you approach and pass FIRE, the risks equalize a bit more, with capital preservation becoming more important, but the risk of under-earning also still important.  Finally, as you exceed your FIRE amount, your "need" to take risk decreases while your ability to weather risk increases, which really opens you up to choosing whatever AA you damn well please.

The problem is that lots of people who THINK they can take paper losses without panicking and selling are just wrong.  It's very natural to get twitchy at the idea of losing money, and we have strong cognitive biases against losses.  Most people are very sensitive to downside risk.

So take your urge to sell as information that your current AA is too risky for your current risk tolerance.  Figure out what makes the most sense to you in terms of risk-reward, and slowly move your AA to the correct level of risk.  Rebalance annually back to your target AA.  Don't check your accounts too often.

I personally found running a bunch of different AA scenarios through portfolio visualizer helped me understand the different risks and rewards of each.  Backtesting asset allocations is not necessarily predictive of the future, but it at least tells you what the tradeoffs have been in the past.

bigblock440

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 262
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #42 on: June 25, 2020, 11:19:57 AM »
I just compare it to what my cash contributions were if I started to worry, and even at the end of March I was still up significantly than I would have had I kept my savings in cash.  Really tightens my perspective.

vand

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2339
  • Location: UK
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #43 on: June 25, 2020, 11:45:10 AM »
guys
short and sweet one.

I hate loosing. period. I feel the market is about to blow, as Dalio et al have stated.

Im in market for at least another 15+ years so Im ok for time, but I hate to see my hard earned portfolio signfincantly drop in value.  I know timing is impossible. I'll just have to sit back and watch it drop and recover over time....really struggling to not go to cash at moment.

Anyone else feel like this? 

Baz

Hmm. Perhaps you are not comfortable with your current asset allocation. If you don't mind, what is it?

I find that the best way to sleep a night when the market is going apeshit (like ever other week) is to have an asset allocation that I can live with. Correct asset allocation with do far more for your portfolio than will stock selection or market timing anyway (see Bernstein).

Also, ignore Ray Dallo, Kramer, and all those guys that claim they predicted the 2008 crash (they didn't). Ignore the news cycle. Pick an allocation (stocks, bonds, metals, cash) that you can live with. There will be ups and downs, but over time, your holdings will increase.

Yup.

OP clearly does not have the temperament to hold as much stocks as he does and should either halve his equity allocation and/or give his money to an investment advisor and gladly pay them 1% to stop them doing stupid stuff.

bthewalls

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 395
  • Location: ireland/northern ireland
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #44 on: June 25, 2020, 04:55:30 PM »
Gad I love this place.

Itís great been the newbie getting all this great knowledge.

Anyone buying Berk b at moment instead of overpriced indexes (he said while running for cover ).

You guys are the best lol

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2121
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #45 on: June 25, 2020, 05:14:28 PM »
Iím not selling because Iím mostly in cash anyway. Iím actually DCAing over time and should be 50-60% equities at the end of the year.

One thing Iím NOT doing is buying US equities. The prices are flipping insane, and as an American, Iím already waaaay overexposed to the US dollar.  So Iím happily buying other than US stocks. Diversification FTW.

Fuzz

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 421
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #46 on: June 25, 2020, 05:54:39 PM »
Have permabulls made shittons of money for the past few decades?
Oh yes.

Does past performance indicate future performance?
Eh... Most investors will say no when directly asked the question, but when asked why everyone should have a high stock allocation they point to history. Pressed on the discrepancy, they'll say that past performance indicates only long term future performance. "Stocks always go up in the long run."

Do stocks always go up in all markets or only in the US indices?
Well, obviously there are some markets that have NOT gone consistently up over the course of decades...
https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/spain/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/slovenia/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/serbia/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/malta/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/bangladesh/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-arab-emirates/stock-market
https://tradingeconomics.com/botswana/stock-market

So does that mean the US market could take a long-term deviation from its upward trend, like other countries have experienced?What if we tried to fail... like elected incompetent leaders, refused to control a pandemic, amassed massive private and public debts, or enacted policies that exacerbated bubbles and discouraged demographic growth?
Not possible. The stock market would go up regardless of anything because it's the U.S.

I love this. And I also recognize that over the history of the US markets, a lot of crazy things have happened (oil embargo; Cuban missile crisis). So what's your AA @ChpBstrd ?

MustacheAndaHalf

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6656
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #47 on: June 25, 2020, 06:32:01 PM »
OP clearly does not have the temperament to hold as much stocks as he does and should either halve his equity allocation and/or give his money to an investment advisor and gladly pay them 1% to stop them doing stupid stuff.
So OP is "doing stupid stuff" when they haven't done anything yet?
Rather than insult the OP, look at your suggestion to pay 1% of assets... is that "doing stupid stuff"?


vand

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2339
  • Location: UK
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #48 on: June 26, 2020, 03:07:23 AM »
OP clearly does not have the temperament to hold as much stocks as he does and should either halve his equity allocation and/or give his money to an investment advisor and gladly pay them 1% to stop them doing stupid stuff.
So OP is "doing stupid stuff" when they haven't done anything yet?
Rather than insult the OP, look at your suggestion to pay 1% of assets... is that "doing stupid stuff"?

1% to protect the investor with poor temperament from their biggest weakness, ie themselves, is a very small price to pay. We canít all be geniuses like you.

FLAFI

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 26
Re: anyone else struggling to not sell?
« Reply #49 on: June 26, 2020, 11:10:30 AM »
Here is a great video by JL Collins for times like these: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOGU94eL07E&t=562s

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!