Author Topic: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?  (Read 10157 times)

conwy

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #50 on: April 11, 2019, 02:16:10 PM »
I mean, Iím not arguing that thereís any alternative to stocks.

(Unless youíre a billionaire with multiple hedge funds and can probably get 20% with that leverage. But then youíre already rich anyway and you donít need to even bother investing it, youíll always have enough money.)

Thatís why Iím feeling a bit negative. It seems like early retirement was only ever going to work in a high growth economy and it turns out thatís an anomaly, and the norm to expect for a big chunk of my life is essentially zero growth in my net worth (apart from saving 50 - 100k p. year, which sure, is a lot, but isnít going to get me above 1.5M anytime soon).

conwy

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #51 on: April 11, 2019, 02:19:52 PM »
You're doing it wrong.  If inflation is 2%, then they are saying 4% + 2% or actually 6%.

Are you sure?? If so, that would be great as even 4% over 10 years would definitely put me in the bracket I want to be in.

Iím going to try and research this more carefully. Iíll let you peeps know what I find.

ysette9

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #52 on: April 11, 2019, 02:22:01 PM »
Why are you placing such weight on what one random dude on the internet is predicting? Is his crystal ball better than any of the other random doom-sayers out there? You can just as easily find some one who has a rosy outlook on the future stock returns and can make a fancy video or couple of graphs to try to convince you of that.

None of us know what the stock market returns will be in the next ten years. I am interested in that because I plan on FIREing soon, and the first ten years performance of a portfolio is quite meaningful for sequence of returns risk. But I am hedging against that with a reverse equity glide path asset allocation. Otherwise there isnít much I can do except be willing to be flexible.

If you arenít retiring soon then why do you care? What really matters is how your portfolio will do over the next 50 years. If the next ten are bum years then there is a  good chance that years 11-20 will be great and you will be just fine.

As others have already said, a big savings rate far trumps what your investment returns will be. Focus on moving that lever to a desirable spot; it is both entirely within your control and much more predictable than what the stock market will return.

BicycleB

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #53 on: April 11, 2019, 02:25:42 PM »
I re-listened and he says: ďon the equities side ... you get a modest return thatís above inflation, roughly four... four and a half percentĒ.

So thatís above inflation. So take away 3% inflation and what do you get? 4 - 3 = 1%.

I admit Iím looking at a pessimistic scenario. It could be slightly better. But thatís the ballpark.

You're doing it wrong.  If inflation is 2%, then they are saying 4% + 2% or actually 6%.

Like @tyort1 says, Dr. Davis' team projects equity returns of 4 to 4 and half % above inflation. Not 1 percent, 4 percent. Keep re-listening.

Supposing 2% inflation, that means equity returns of 6 to 6 and 1/2 percent.

Where are you pulling 3% inflation from? Did you notice that Davis own team projects inflation of less than 2%? Do you believe the source of your 3% estimate is more accurate than Vanguard's team of economists?

To me it looks like you are mis-reading / mis-hearing in a way that produces an overly pessimistic outlook. You are welcome to live your life any way you want, but the source you've quoted doesn't support your 1% conclusion.

I am FIREd on 500k because of reading such analyses in a more accurate manner. Care to join me?  :)
« Last Edit: April 11, 2019, 02:31:43 PM by BicycleB »

Tyson

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #54 on: April 11, 2019, 02:27:04 PM »
You're doing it wrong.  If inflation is 2%, then they are saying 4% + 2% or actually 6%.

Are you sure?? If so, that would be great as even 4% over 10 years would definitely put me in the bracket I want to be in.

Iím going to try and research this more carefully. Iíll let you peeps know what I find.

I am absolutely positive. 

conwy

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #55 on: April 11, 2019, 02:30:04 PM »
To answer a question - my savings rate is about 70% (slightly above) so that nets me about 100k p year (though, as Iím a contractor, this isnít guaranteed year upon year; however it seems likely so long as I keep my skills sharp and stay up to date, as my track record has been increase every year).

conwy

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #56 on: April 11, 2019, 02:32:36 PM »
Like @tyort1 says, Dr. Davis' team projects equity returns of 4 to 4 and half % above inflation. Not 1 percent, 4 percent. Keep re-listening.

Supposing 2% inflation, that means equity returns of 6 to 6 and 1/2 percent.

Where are you pulling 3% inflation from? Did you notice that Davis own team projects inflation of less than 2%? Do you believe the source of your 3% estimate is more accurate than Vanguard's team of economists?

To me it looks like you are mis-reading / mis-hearing in a way that produces an overly pessimistic outlook. You are welcome to live your life any way you want, but the source you've quoted doesn't support your 1% conclusion.

I am FIREd on 500k because of reading such analyses in a less biased manner. Care to join me?  :)

Ok maybe I misread it.

4% and above and Iím perfectly happy even if I have to wait 5 years to get it. Iím shoving all my savings directly into my Vanguard High Growth fund just as quickly as I can.

I just want a reasonable payoff given that Iíve been working and saving pretty hard since the age of 15. Though I get that the markets donít care about my feelings or my history, they just do their thing.

But I just hope to god some of my generation gets a chance to get some level of financial security, while there are billionaires out there who can afford to go into space. Sorry I know I come off as. Tad envious, I kind of am.

But 4% is ok. I can live with that.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2019, 02:36:18 PM by conwy »

Tyson

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #57 on: April 11, 2019, 02:32:58 PM »
To answer a question - my savings rate is about 70% (slightly above) so that nets me about 100k p year (though, as Iím a contractor, this isnít guaranteed year upon year; however it seems likely so long as I keep my skills sharp and stay up to date, as my track record has been increase every year).

Shit man, you're crushing it!  Keep it up and you'll be FI in no time flat.  Seriously, that's awesome.

conwy

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #58 on: April 11, 2019, 02:38:39 PM »
To answer a question - my savings rate is about 70% (slightly above) so that nets me about 100k p year (though, as I’m a contractor, this isn’t guaranteed year upon year; however it seems likely so long as I keep my skills sharp and stay up to date, as my track record has been increase every year).

Shit man, you're crushing it!  Keep it up and you'll be FI in no time flat.  Seriously, that's awesome.

Thanks for the encouragement!

It’s not like I had any real hardship, I enjoy my work in fact. But it’s still hard work. It’s not like I was born into a rich family or got to go to a fancy school like some. So money means a lot to me, it’s more than just retiring early.

BicycleB

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #59 on: April 11, 2019, 02:45:16 PM »
To answer a question - my savings rate is about 70% (slightly above) so that nets me about 100k p year (though, as Iím a contractor, this isnít guaranteed year upon year; however it seems likely so long as I keep my skills sharp and stay up to date, as my track record has been increase every year).

I literally LOL'd on this one - happily, in a positive supportive way.

70%? Dude, you're going to be fine. There's no way to tell exactly when your 4% will come. Your portfolio could drop like a diving falcon tomorrow and still be in negative territory in 2030. If that happens, you could have years of less work and less savings too, right when you wish you were investing at those sweet juicy low prices. But you'll be fine because your low expenses will get you through the bad times, and your high earning ability will push you ahead whenever you have work. The investment returns will then add in over time.

It's fine that you want a big stash. Keep going after it and you'll get there.

PS. You yourself already quoted the interviewee as predicting equities to be 4% over inflation (see post #49)...
« Last Edit: April 11, 2019, 02:46:48 PM by BicycleB »

ysette9

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #60 on: April 11, 2019, 03:04:56 PM »
Yep, your savings rate is awesome so you will do great if you keep it up. How much is your invested net worth, if you donít mind me asking? I found for the first several years that I felt like I was treading water. Then somewhere around the $100k point it felt like I got this lift in my wings and compound interest started helping out. The ride from $1M onwards has been crazy. I think it took us ten years to get to $1M and another four to get to $2M.

fattest_foot

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #61 on: April 11, 2019, 03:20:57 PM »
I feel similar.  I'm not a doom-sayer who thinks the markets are going to blow up and send us back to a barter economy.

But the "what I would have to believe" for equities to return 7%+ over the next 10 years is pretty ridiculous.  It just isn't going to happen.  Or if it does, we actually have bigger problems.

For the positive side, this economic environment remains a place where it is easy to maintain high earnings and high savings.  People forget that the big-crash "buying opportunity" can easily come with job losses, lower bonuses, lower raises, etc.  A recession could easily eat away at your ability to continue saving.

Wait, why is 7%+ return over the next decade ridiculous?

Historically that's 3% below CAGR.

conwy

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #62 on: April 11, 2019, 03:25:29 PM »
Yep, your savings rate is awesome so you will do great if you keep it up. How much is your invested net worth, if you don’t mind me asking? I found for the first several years that I felt like I was treading water. Then somewhere around the $100k point it felt like I got this lift in my wings and compound interest started helping out. The ride from $1M onwards has been crazy. I think it took us ten years to get to $1M and another four to get to $2M.

Thanks for your encouragement. I definitely intend to keep it up and even increase it.

I guess my plan (ideally) would be to continue saving 70-80%, while cutting work back to 9 or even 6 months per year, so I can spend more time relaxing, studying, working on side-projects and finding ways to reduce my spending even further.

If I can keep this up for the next 10-20 years, all without touching my principle or its returns, then hopefully through 4% compound interest, I'll have $2M+ by the age of 50, at which point I can work part-time and spend most of my time keeping fit, relaxing, holidaying, etc.

How much is your invested net worth, if you don’t mind me asking?

I have about $550k already invested and then a further $250k (approx.) that I will only able to access toward the end of this year (guaranteed, but just need to wait, for tax reasons).

So by the end of the year, I'll probably have $800k invested in high growth diversified vehicles and $50k in cash (2 years living expenses for me).

(This is all in Australian dollars BTW.)

So I guess I'm not in too bad a position right now in terms of cash. I'm just looking ahead to 10 or 20 years from now and hoping that I'll be able to afford a decent place to live, given that this money is all I have (I don't own any real-estate and rents don't seem to be getting cheaper, though to look at the positive, on the low-end they don't seem to be getting more expensive either).

I'm happy to keep working full-time and saving and investing, but I don't know that my wage will keep going up. I feel like I've hit a glass ceiling, probably due to not having a degree or being extremely well connected. But still I can probably make at least 100k p/year for another decade (hopefully).
« Last Edit: April 11, 2019, 03:33:28 PM by conwy »

Kierun

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #63 on: April 11, 2019, 03:36:59 PM »
25k/year expenses and ~800k invested by the end of the year.  Congrats you won!  Be happy and enjoy life.

Radagast

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #64 on: April 11, 2019, 08:35:44 PM »
I'll say the same thing I said before. Lets move away from the depressive fantasy. If you started in 2001 with the assets and saving rate you have now, ten years later you would have had $2.2M. I don't think anybody would have called December 2001 - November 2010 a great time to be investing, in fact they would have said it was a terrible time. And you would have taken 6% annualized returns, or 3.4% minus inflation. This is not your worst case, but financially speaking it is one of the worse sequences. US dollar based, but the concept is the same and that sequence won't repeat for anybody anyhow. Also, November 2010 would have ended up being a great time to start living off the 'stache, the strong uptrend for the next 9+ years was perfect for it.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2000&firstMonth=3&endYear=2010&lastMonth=11&calendarAligned=true&endDate=04%2F05%2F2019&initialAmount=800000&annualOperation=1&annualAdjustment=6000&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=2&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&symbol1=VTSAX&allocation1_1=45&symbol2=VGTSX&allocation2_1=45&symbol3=VBTLX&allocation3_1=10

I also tried peak to trough (using investor class funds), and your actual worst case, March 2000 to March 2009, still put you at $1.2M. Had you had the guts to voluntarily leave employment in March 2009 (or misfortune to involuntarily do so), it would have been one of the best months in history to FIRE. Unless everything ends, fundamentals move inversely to prices.

25k/year expenses and ~800k invested by the end of the year.  Congrats you won!  Be happy and enjoy life.
Also, this.

CoffeeR

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #65 on: April 11, 2019, 08:55:42 PM »
From what certain experts are saying, it looks like we're in for 10 years of low growth.
I would be far more worried if the experts were saying we are in for 10 good years. They have *never* said this. Ever. If they did, I would start to worry.

MaaS

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #66 on: April 11, 2019, 10:10:03 PM »
Not really.

The world has changed more in the last 15 years than it did in the last 50. (Disclaimer: my opinion)

Nobody knows what the future of earnings look like. It's possible we're flat-ish for 10 years. Or, it's possible AI and other advances lead to unprecedented profitability. Hard to say.

If it's keeping you up at night, consider rebalancing to to more international indexes. They aren't expensive by P/E standards. Will they outperform the US? Not sure, but I can understand how it gives one hope.

BicycleB

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #67 on: April 12, 2019, 03:00:37 PM »

I have about $550k already invested and then a further $250k (approx.) that I will only able to access toward the end of this year (guaranteed, but just need to wait, for tax reasons).

So by the end of the year, I'll probably have $800k invested in high growth diversified vehicles and $50k in cash (2 years living expenses for me).

(This is all in Australian dollars BTW.)

So I guess I'm not in too bad a position right now in terms of cash. I'm just looking ahead to 10 or

This is all in Australian dollars!

(thinks...ponders...Googles just to make sure...) ($AUS 1 = $US .72)

Hmm, your expenses are slightly lower than mine. You are frugal! Congrats!

I do read real estate is costly where you are. Still it sounds like renting and having a modest safety layer are viable.

That said, I can understand wanting to achieve a higher goal, and to own one's own home. I agree that might take another decade at least.

For what it's worth, the video you linked was a US-based outlook. If I lived where you do, I'd be careful to figure out more than I currently know about my local investment market vs international. I think the conclusions will be similar, but if anything, would lead to accumulating a little more. Specific investment choices would probably differ from a US investor. There are lots of smart Australians on this board; maybe you can search for them.

Mighty-Dollar

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #68 on: April 13, 2019, 08:18:28 PM »
certain experts are saying
There's ALWAYS certain experts calling for doom and gloom ahead. And there's ALWAYS something to worry about.
For the last 10 years these certain experts have been completely wrong.

conwy

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #69 on: April 14, 2019, 06:44:04 PM »
At the end of the day, I guess nothing in life is guaranteed.

You just do the best you can and try to enjoy the ride.

Maybe the best way is to just try and set up life to be as fun and enjoyable as possible, whatever the stock market does.

BicycleB

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #70 on: April 15, 2019, 04:27:36 PM »
At the end of the day, I guess nothing in life is guaranteed.

You just do the best you can and try to enjoy the ride.

Maybe the best way is to just try and set up life to be as fun and enjoyable as possible, whatever the stock market does.

Very wise, very wise.

grettman

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #71 on: April 16, 2019, 05:17:46 AM »
You just posted you have a net worth of $832,000 and you're under 30 and worried about not being able to "get rich" by the time you are 50? You're travelling the world on contract to contract earning much more than most professions with the freedom to add significant savings to your investments that 95% of people don't do.

Holy shit your mindset is fucked up. You are already near the top of your age cohort in terms of net worth.

Would it be too self-referential for this site if this thread was posted on the Antimustachian Wall of Shame and Comedy sub-forum?  It's hard for me to think of many things more antithetical to the entire philosophy of this website than to be "frustrated" about "never be above lower-middle-class and never able to afford anything more than a shoebox" with nearly $1M at under 30 years of age. 

Seriously.  This thread is absolutely insane.

That seems a touch harsh to me.

Perhaps a tad harsh but at best this is a humblebrag.  OP is a smart guy and being smart he knows he is crushing it financially compared to most people in the PF space and is certainly destroying it compared to the average American in terms of financial health.  But OP is insecure at some level so these threads help in that regard.  I donít have any advice other than to say focus on living life  and put your money on autopilot.  Look occasionally at performance but not too much and stay away from sites like this and the news which can bring you down.

Malcat

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #72 on: April 16, 2019, 05:43:12 AM »
At the end of the day, I guess nothing in life is guaranteed.

You just do the best you can and try to enjoy the ride.

Maybe the best way is to just try and set up life to be as fun and enjoyable as possible, whatever the stock market does.

I've been in life-altering, severe, unremitting pain for 7 straight weeks and found out just *yesterday* that I most likely have a serious, incurable disease that may land me in a wheelchair before I even reach retirement age and even then, I have a more positive outlook on my future than you do.

Your investment returns won't determine your happiness.
You will.

Whose job do you think it is to make your life a good one?
Seriously.
Think about it.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #73 on: April 16, 2019, 05:47:37 AM »
I re-listened and he says: “on the equities side ... you get a modest return that’s above inflation, roughly four... four and a half percent”.

So that’s above inflation. So take away 3% inflation and what do you get? 4 - 3 = 1%.

I admit I’m looking at a pessimistic scenario. It could be slightly better. But that’s the ballpark

He is clearly talking about inflation- corrected return. 4% above the inflation rate.  That's 4 times 1%.

But I guess if you are bound and determined to be depressed about imaginary things, then there is little we're going to be able to do to stop your downward spiral.

An "outlook" is an imaginary thing. Finance outlooks are not predictions, like you can do in simple physics problems, no matter how much math you use to "smoke and mirror" the issue.

Edit: and what Malkynn said... And I thought I was strongly making my point :-)

Malkynn, be strong and keep the Positive Mental Attitude!
Check out " Best day till tomorrow " by The Real McKenzies

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0lQ5zg4aOJY

enjoy what'chas got, not what you have not
'tis a weak heart lamenting with sorrow
when the days seem cursed, it could always be worse
fight depression with sword and arrow
when the zeppelinous clouds of trouble abound
and thunder is clapping and lightning strikes ground
just when yer thinking this may be your last
throw a lash 'round the mast, hold fast!
when the world ain't right, and it smithes ye with strife
ye can now buckle down, it's a test they call life
very soon you will see what kind of animal you'd be
taking the bite outta life
when they're testing the gallows, yer hung like a dog
or they're marching us out to a firing squad
we just smile and recall all the good times we had
it's the best 'til tomorrow
it's the best day 'til tomorrow
no considering surrender when yer down in the dregs
if ye look down and notice you still have your legs
so stand up and fight you just might seize the day
it's the best day 'til tomorrow
« Last Edit: April 16, 2019, 06:03:54 AM by markbike528CBX »

dougules

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #74 on: April 16, 2019, 10:29:58 AM »
You just posted you have a net worth of $832,000 and you're under 30 and worried about not being able to "get rich" by the time you are 50? You're travelling the world on contract to contract earning much more than most professions with the freedom to add significant savings to your investments that 95% of people don't do.

Holy shit your mindset is fucked up. You are already near the top of your age cohort in terms of net worth.

Would it be too self-referential for this site if this thread was posted on the Antimustachian Wall of Shame and Comedy sub-forum?  It's hard for me to think of many things more antithetical to the entire philosophy of this website than to be "frustrated" about "never be above lower-middle-class and never able to afford anything more than a shoebox" with nearly $1M at under 30 years of age. 

Seriously.  This thread is absolutely insane.

That seems a touch harsh to me.

Perhaps a tad harsh but at best this is a humblebrag.  OP is a smart guy and being smart he knows he is crushing it financially compared to most people in the PF space and is certainly destroying it compared to the average American in terms of financial health.  But OP is insecure at some level so these threads help in that regard.  I donít have any advice other than to say focus on living life  and put your money on autopilot.  Look occasionally at performance but not too much and stay away from sites like this and the news which can bring you down.

I don't think it is a humblebrag.  Most people here are crushing it financially in comparison to the average person, so this isn't the best place to humblebrag about finances. 

I completely agree with OP that returns are down on everything at the moment.   PE ratios are way up, real estate is expensive, and bond rates have gone back down.  In an efficient market that means that real returns over the next decade-ish have a higher likelihood of being below average.  That's not a prediction of an impending crash or anything else in the near future.  It's not any kind of doomsday scenario. 

The main thing I don't agree with is the emotional component.  It is disappointing to be investing in a low-return environment, but it's not the end of the world. 

dougules

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #75 on: April 16, 2019, 12:06:20 PM »
At the end of the day, I guess nothing in life is guaranteed.

You just do the best you can and try to enjoy the ride.

Maybe the best way is to just try and set up life to be as fun and enjoyable as possible, whatever the stock market does.

I've been in life-altering, severe, unremitting pain for 7 straight weeks and found out just *yesterday* that I most likely have a serious, incurable disease that may land me in a wheelchair before I even reach retirement age and even then, I have a more positive outlook on my future than you do.

Your investment returns won't determine your happiness.
You will.

Whose job do you think it is to make your life a good one?
Seriously.
Think about it.

Sorry to hear about that.  Thanks for the perspective. 

BicycleB

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #76 on: April 16, 2019, 05:35:10 PM »
At the end of the day, I guess nothing in life is guaranteed.

You just do the best you can and try to enjoy the ride.

Maybe the best way is to just try and set up life to be as fun and enjoyable as possible, whatever the stock market does.

I've been in life-altering, severe, unremitting pain for 7 straight weeks and found out just *yesterday* that I most likely have a serious, incurable disease that may land me in a wheelchair before I even reach retirement age and even then, I have a more positive outlook on my future than you do.

Your investment returns won't determine your happiness.
You will.

Whose job do you think it is to make your life a good one?
Seriously.
Think about it.

@Malkynn, sorry about your health news. Best wishes! Also, nice move turning it to good use so quickly.

Malcat

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #77 on: April 16, 2019, 05:56:52 PM »
At the end of the day, I guess nothing in life is guaranteed.

You just do the best you can and try to enjoy the ride.

Maybe the best way is to just try and set up life to be as fun and enjoyable as possible, whatever the stock market does.

I've been in life-altering, severe, unremitting pain for 7 straight weeks and found out just *yesterday* that I most likely have a serious, incurable disease that may land me in a wheelchair before I even reach retirement age and even then, I have a more positive outlook on my future than you do.

Your investment returns won't determine your happiness.
You will.

Whose job do you think it is to make your life a good one?
Seriously.
Think about it.

@Malkynn, sorry about your health news. Best wishes! Also, nice move turning it to good use so quickly.

I've got a lot of flair, what can I say ;)

Tyson

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #78 on: April 17, 2019, 03:11:22 PM »
At the end of the day, I guess nothing in life is guaranteed.

You just do the best you can and try to enjoy the ride.

Maybe the best way is to just try and set up life to be as fun and enjoyable as possible, whatever the stock market does.

I've been in life-altering, severe, unremitting pain for 7 straight weeks and found out just *yesterday* that I most likely have a serious, incurable disease that may land me in a wheelchair before I even reach retirement age and even then, I have a more positive outlook on my future than you do.

Your investment returns won't determine your happiness.
You will.

Whose job do you think it is to make your life a good one?
Seriously.
Think about it.

@Malkynn, sorry about your health news. Best wishes! Also, nice move turning it to good use so quickly.

I've got a lot of flair, what can I say ;)

I hope things get better for you.  You're one of the reasons I like this forum so much - your posts are always interesting and thought provoking (and it helps that I agree with you most of the time). 

Malcat

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #79 on: April 17, 2019, 03:40:34 PM »

I hope things get better for you.  You're one of the reasons I like this forum so much - your posts are always interesting and thought provoking (and it helps that I agree with you most of the time).

Lol, yeah, people tend to really like me when they agree with me. The rest can't stand me.

Tyson

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #80 on: April 17, 2019, 04:45:17 PM »

I hope things get better for you.  You're one of the reasons I like this forum so much - your posts are always interesting and thought provoking (and it helps that I agree with you most of the time).

Lol, yeah, people tend to really like me when they agree with me. The rest can't stand me.

Screw the rest ;)

cloudsail

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #81 on: April 17, 2019, 05:49:43 PM »
At the end of the day, I guess nothing in life is guaranteed.

You just do the best you can and try to enjoy the ride.

Maybe the best way is to just try and set up life to be as fun and enjoyable as possible, whatever the stock market does.

I've been in life-altering, severe, unremitting pain for 7 straight weeks and found out just *yesterday* that I most likely have a serious, incurable disease that may land me in a wheelchair before I even reach retirement age and even then, I have a more positive outlook on my future than you do.

Your investment returns won't determine your happiness.
You will.

Whose job do you think it is to make your life a good one?
Seriously.
Think about it.

@Malkynn, sorry about your health news. Best wishes! Also, nice move turning it to good use so quickly.

I've got a lot of flair, what can I say ;)

So sorry to hear that, really hope it's a misdiagnosis :(

vand

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #82 on: April 18, 2019, 02:29:37 AM »
the reasons that you are doing well in your job, raking in loads of money and feel good about your earnings potential are the same reasons that stocks are fully valued.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2019, 02:31:11 AM by vand »

ChpBstrd

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #83 on: April 18, 2019, 01:00:59 PM »
1) OPís net worth and savings rate are not relevant because if you retire on a 4% WR and then experience a decade at 1% per year total return your portfolio will be somewhat diminished, and youíll probably be back to work. If any reasonable level of inflation occurs in that decade, even worse for the retiree.

2) This 1% for a decade scenario would probably not be a smooth ride. It would look like +15% one year -13% the next, etc. This matters because you can skip much of the dips using options strategies like the protected put or collar. I just insured a S&P 500 ETF position for 2.6 years at a cost of less than 1.9% per year (yay for exploiting low volatility!). My maximum downside is now 7% - better than most bond portfolio risk profiles. This is how I sleep at night with 95% equities (and 5% hedges). In the event of a 20% correction (which historically occurs every couple of years), my IPS says to sell my hedge and go fully long. This worked beautifully in January 2019, and I only recently sold some,  but not all, of the shares I picked up 20% ago in order to reestablish my hedge.

This is how itís possible to have a pessimistic forecast while staying invested and excited about the future. I WILL FIRE in about 5 years regardless of market performance because my returns are predictable. It would take a Great Depression scenario to set me back 2 years. Pessimism never felt so good.

conwy

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #84 on: April 18, 2019, 02:35:40 PM »
I've been in life-altering, severe, unremitting pain for 7 straight weeks and found out just *yesterday* that I most likely have a serious, incurable disease that may land me in a wheelchair before I even reach retirement age and even then, I have a more positive outlook on my future than you do.

I'm really really sorry to hear this. I hope the doctors are able to do something about your pain. I appreciate you mentioning this, because it gives me some perspective. Something like this could very well happen to me too, all else equal.

vand

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #85 on: April 26, 2019, 02:30:37 AM »
On a somewhat philosophical level, what actually happens in the next 10 years is nothing you can control anyway. The biggest factor in how well off you are a decade from now is not what the markets will or won't do, it's what YOU will or won't do.  I would like to offer this excerpt from the great Jim Rohn:



Quote

I once did a seminar for a group of oil company executives during their convention in Honolulu. While we were sitting around the conference table, one of them asked, ďMr. Rohn, you know some important people around the world. What do you think the next 10 years are going to be like?Ē I said, ďGentlemen, I do know the right people. I can tell you.Ē So they all listened very carefully. I said, ďGentlemen, based on the people I know and from the best of my own experience, Iíve concluded that in the coming 10 years, things are going to be about like theyíve always been.Ē

I said that to make a point, but also because itís accurate. Things are going to be about like theyíve always been. The tide comes in, and then what? It goes out. Thatís been the case for 6,000 years of recorded history, and probably long before that, so itís not likely to change.

It gets light and then what? It turns dark. For 6,000 years. We are not to be startled by that now. If the sun goes down and someone says, ďWhat happened?Ē he must have just gotten here, I guess. It always goes down about this time of day.

In rotation, the next season after fall is winter. And pray tell, how often does winter follow fall? Every time, without fail, for 6,000 years that we know of. Of course, some winters are long and some are short, some are difficult and some are easy, but they always come right after fall. That isnít going to change.

Sometimes you can figure it out, sometimes thereís no way to figure it out. Sometimes it goes well, sometimes it gets in a knot. Sometimes it sails along, sometimes it goes in reverse. Thatís not going to change. That last 6,000 years read like this: opportunity mixed with difficulty. It isnít going to change.

Someone says, ďWell, then, how will my life change?Ē And the answer is: When you change.

Whether Iím talking to high school kids or business executives, my message is always the same. The only way it gets better for you is when you get better. Better is not something you wish for; better is something you become.

powskier

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Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
« Reply #86 on: April 29, 2019, 10:35:01 PM »
My crystal ball reads somewhat differently than the click bait masters.
Maybe I can interest you in my non existent e book " Make huge gains in the next 10 years", it's about buying the index in a regular fashion.
But wait! That's not all! If you order now I'll send you my secret guidebook called "the future is always tomorrow", it's about appreciating the present.