Author Topic: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)  (Read 17745 times)

martyconlonontherun

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #100 on: August 02, 2020, 07:02:35 AM »
Your first goal should be trying to diversify buy buying other stock. You can put away 50k plus a year in tax advantaged index funds. If you all make 170k a year and only have a $2.5k a month housing income, there is some serious fat. If that's your lifestyle choice, fine. But ten years from now if you don't have enough to retire, it isn't because of diversifying or not diversifying Apple, it is because you haven't been saving enough.

($850k net worth is still a great start for someone your age, but that doesn't mean you can't be doing better. )

seeyalater

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #101 on: August 03, 2020, 11:30:38 AM »
I sold about 700 shares in December, and purchased some VTSAX (boring) and MSFT (doing ok).  I still have about 2300 shares or roughly $1M worth of shares. I'm up almost $150K since last Friday.

I am however strongly thinking of selling half my shares today. I'm just not sure what stock(s)/fund(s) I would put that $500K into.

Rdy2Fire

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #102 on: August 03, 2020, 01:52:04 PM »
I sold about 700 shares in December, and purchased some VTSAX (boring) and MSFT (doing ok).  I still have about 2300 shares or roughly $1M worth of shares. I'm up almost $150K since last Friday.

I am however strongly thinking of selling half my shares today. I'm just not sure what stock(s)/fund(s) I would put that $500K into.

Although I totally agree with diversifying, I am not sure now is a time to sell. I mean no one knows what will happen but realistically it should continue to drive up (probably not like Friday and today) for a bit longer since the split isn't til months end.

Of course you can look at as you've made a ton so get out now (pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered) or you can look at as you've made a ton and even if it drops back to $400 were you really hurt? Also keep in mind there will be a big tax burden on that sale so you may want to diversify it over time and not just dump 50%.

Laura Ingalls

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #103 on: August 26, 2020, 01:08:59 PM »
Better lucky than good, I guess.

seeyalater

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #104 on: December 28, 2020, 07:47:24 AM »
End of Year Update

Portfolio is now up to $1.45M. I plan on selling another $100K of AAPL in January and put it into VTSAX.

AAPL (80% of portfolio)
VTSAX
MSFT
NIO

I missed out on QS two weeks ago. I was about to buy in around $50, then it went up to $60 and I was waiting for it to go back down, but instead it went straight up to $120.00

bwall

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #105 on: December 28, 2020, 07:59:34 AM »
Congratulations! The wealth generating power of the US stock market for the average person is just amazing. I wonder how many thousands (hundreds of thousands?) of people AAPL has made into millionaires.

I recently found ARKG; it's an ETF that is looking into disruptive forward looking technologies to invest in. If you're looking for investing ideas, give it a look. The founder has also given a few interviews that can be found on youtube. YMMV.

valsecito

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #106 on: December 28, 2020, 04:38:03 PM »
AAPL (80% of portfolio)
Congratulations on a winning gamble for now.

I'm not your significant other, but if I were him or her, I'd recommend you to diversify your assets immediately and get treatment for your gambling addiction. If not, this will end badly at some point. You know that. You can feel that yourself.

I'd say the "investor alley" section is not the appropriate place for this kind of post though. Apart from being a textbook example of how not to invest, it's got nothing to do with investing.

Your gambling has some semblance of investing, just enough for less financially literate people to get confused about the difference between investing and gambling.

RWTL

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #107 on: December 28, 2020, 06:15:16 PM »
AAPL (80% of portfolio)
Congratulations on a winning gamble for now.

I'm not your significant other, but if I were him or her, I'd recommend you to diversify your assets immediately and get treatment for your gambling addiction. If not, this will end badly at some point. You know that. You can feel that yourself.

I'd say the "investor alley" section is not the appropriate place for this kind of post though. Apart from being a textbook example of how not to invest, it's got nothing to do with investing.

Your gambling has some semblance of investing, just enough for less financially literate people to get confused about the difference between investing and gambling.

A bit dramatic don't you think?  Just because the OP doesn't invest like we would want doesn't mean he/she has a gambling addiction.


alienbogey

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #108 on: December 28, 2020, 10:08:39 PM »
AAPL (80% of portfolio)
Congratulations on a winning gamble for now.

I'm not your significant other, but if I were him or her, I'd recommend you to diversify your assets immediately and get treatment for your gambling addiction. If not, this will end badly at some point. You know that. You can feel that yourself.

I'd say the "investor alley" section is not the appropriate place for this kind of post though. Apart from being a textbook example of how not to invest, it's got nothing to do with investing.

Your gambling has some semblance of investing, just enough for less financially literate people to get confused about the difference between investing and gambling.

WRT the use of "gambling" in the above post:

"You keep using that word.  I do not think it means what you think it means."   Indigo Montoya

talltexan

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #109 on: December 29, 2020, 06:31:52 AM »
So close to the end of the year, I cannot help but feel as though--were I in OPs position--I'd want to wait until next week to start exiting the position.

valsecito

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #110 on: December 29, 2020, 07:37:49 AM »
AAPL (80% of portfolio)
Congratulations on a winning gamble for now.

I'm not your significant other, but if I were him or her, I'd recommend you to diversify your assets immediately and get treatment for your gambling addiction. If not, this will end badly at some point. You know that. You can feel that yourself.

I'd say the "investor alley" section is not the appropriate place for this kind of post though. Apart from being a textbook example of how not to invest, it's got nothing to do with investing.

Your gambling has some semblance of investing, just enough for less financially literate people to get confused about the difference between investing and gambling.

A bit dramatic don't you think?  Just because the OP doesn't invest like we would want doesn't mean he/she has a gambling addiction.
I retract this unfortunate wording.

ChpBstrd

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #111 on: December 29, 2020, 09:03:03 AM »
The last few years have seen stock pickers and alternative asset gamblers outperforming buy-and-hold indexers. Piling into any of the FAANGM stocks was richly rewarded, but not nearly as much as piling into cryptocurrencies or Tesla. It seems like the riskier and trendier the asset allocation, the higher the rewards. Indexers have done well, but not nearly as well as the folks who ignored the sage advice. People are now talking about using leverage and performance chasing even on this relatively sophisticated forum. They become paper millionaires a year or two after getting a scolding from the indexers! Young investors canít be blamed for wondering whatís the point of diversification if it has underperformed during their entire 5-10 year investing lifetime.

As an over-40 investor Iíll say thereís a very 1990ís feel right now. Narratives count for more than numbers. Valuations are sky-high, particularly for the darlings of tech which now dominate the indexes. People excuse their piling-in behavior by quoting each otherís sayings rather than pointing to any sort of discounted cash flow analysis or economic forecast. Tesla will dominate the car market. Bitcoin is digital gold. Amazon canít be stopped. P/Eís donít matter because growth. AOL can only grow as more and more people get internet service. Yahoo has a huge moat as a search provider. Etc. Iíve heard it all before in different ways.

Iím all in too. 2021 could be a banner bubble year like 1998 or 1999, but at some point Iíll switch to a cash-and-calls stance to protect my downside.

RWTL

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #112 on: December 29, 2020, 12:32:36 PM »
The last few years have seen stock pickers and alternative asset gamblers outperforming buy-and-hold indexers. Piling into any of the FAANGM stocks was richly rewarded, but not nearly as much as piling into cryptocurrencies or Tesla. It seems like the riskier and trendier the asset allocation, the higher the rewards. Indexers have done well, but not nearly as well as the folks who ignored the sage advice. People are now talking about using leverage and performance chasing even on this relatively sophisticated forum. They become paper millionaires a year or two after getting a scolding from the indexers! Young investors canít be blamed for wondering whatís the point of diversification if it has underperformed during their entire 5-10 year investing lifetime.

As an over-40 investor Iíll say thereís a very 1990ís feel right now. Narratives count for more than numbers. Valuations are sky-high, particularly for the darlings of tech which now dominate the indexes. People excuse their piling-in behavior by quoting each otherís sayings rather than pointing to any sort of discounted cash flow analysis or economic forecast. Tesla will dominate the car market. Bitcoin is digital gold. Amazon canít be stopped. P/Eís donít matter because growth. AOL can only grow as more and more people get internet service. Yahoo has a huge moat as a search provider. Etc. Iíve heard it all before in different ways.

Iím all in too. 2021 could be a banner bubble year like 1998 or 1999, but at some point Iíll switch to a cash-and-calls stance to protect my downside.

I agree with this.  Feels very much like it did in the late 90's to me as well.

mistymoney

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #113 on: December 29, 2020, 12:49:29 PM »
I think once the vaccines are widely used people are going to start "living" like there's no tomorrow. enter roaring 20's (the redux!) rather than a 90's scenario. maybe even a lot of gin will be involved - that also has had a Renaissance.

Whoever knew that vacationing would be stamped out of existance for a year or two? People will be treating themselves, not saving, maybe taking on debt? YOLO! Who knows?

I think the stock market will do well during the resulting feasting frenzy. And lots may splurge on Teslas ;P , but of course inevitably it will pop. I'm thinking at least 2 years out from here, and I have to admit I am hard pressed to imagine a way to safeguard my stache. With super low interest rates, RE also gaining steadily during the pandemic, worries on deflation, etc. It does seem that investing in solid companies may be the best overall hedge.

Now - what's a solid company? I'd like to know!

nereo

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #114 on: December 29, 2020, 05:33:31 PM »
I think once the vaccines are widely used people are going to start "living" like there's no tomorrow. enter roaring 20's (the redux!) rather than a 90's scenario. maybe even a lot of gin will be involved - that also has had a Renaissance.

Whoever knew that vacationing would be stamped out of existance for a year or two? People will be treating themselves, not saving, maybe taking on debt? YOLO! Who knows?

I think the stock market will do well during the resulting feasting frenzy. And lots may splurge on Teslas ;P , but of course inevitably it will pop. I'm thinking at least 2 years out from here, and I have to admit I am hard pressed to imagine a way to safeguard my stache. With super low interest rates, RE also gaining steadily during the pandemic, worries on deflation, etc. It does seem that investing in solid companies may be the best overall hedge.


this is certainly possible. It's also possible that the shrinking of our labor force, the record number of long-term unemployed, the massive holes in state budgets and corresponding budget cuts for 2021 (state's can't print their own money, after all...), the trillions in stimulus, the thousands of businesses which won't survive until widespread vaccination allows for 'business-as-before', new lock-down measures, previously-unhit levels of deaths and infections, and other unexpected events might be an anchor on the economy in 2021 and 2022.


ChpBstrd

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #115 on: December 29, 2020, 07:40:06 PM »
I think once the vaccines are widely used people are going to start "living" like there's no tomorrow. enter roaring 20's (the redux!) rather than a 90's scenario. maybe even a lot of gin will be involved - that also has had a Renaissance.

Whoever knew that vacationing would be stamped out of existance for a year or two? People will be treating themselves, not saving, maybe taking on debt? YOLO! Who knows?

I think the stock market will do well during the resulting feasting frenzy. And lots may splurge on Teslas ;P , but of course inevitably it will pop. I'm thinking at least 2 years out from here, and I have to admit I am hard pressed to imagine a way to safeguard my stache. With super low interest rates, RE also gaining steadily during the pandemic, worries on deflation, etc. It does seem that investing in solid companies may be the best overall hedge.


this is certainly possible. It's also possible that the shrinking of our labor force, the record number of long-term unemployed, the massive holes in state budgets and corresponding budget cuts for 2021 (state's can't print their own money, after all...), the trillions in stimulus, the thousands of businesses which won't survive until widespread vaccination allows for 'business-as-before', new lock-down measures, previously-unhit levels of deaths and infections, and other unexpected events might be an anchor on the economy in 2021 and 2022.

After 2008, things didn't get back to 2007 levels for a few years. Unemployment peaked months after the end of the recession. Nothing like a forest fire to stimulate new growth.

Much Fishing to Do

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #116 on: December 30, 2020, 07:11:21 AM »
AAPL (80% of portfolio)
Congratulations on a winning gamble for now.

I'm not your significant other, but if I were him or her, I'd recommend you to diversify your assets immediately and get treatment for your gambling addiction. If not, this will end badly at some point. You know that. You can feel that yourself.

I'd say the "investor alley" section is not the appropriate place for this kind of post though. Apart from being a textbook example of how not to invest, it's got nothing to do with investing.

Your gambling has some semblance of investing, just enough for less financially literate people to get confused about the difference between investing and gambling.

A bit dramatic don't you think?  Just because the OP doesn't invest like we would want doesn't mean he/she has a gambling addiction.
I retract this unfortunate wording.

I do think there is an incredibly interesting philosophical (if not practical) conversation here.  The difference between having everything in AAPL versus everything in Tesla versus everything evenly split in 8 stocks (like average folk used to do to diversify) versus 100% VTI versus a 50/50 portfolio versus 100% money market versus a night of black jack with expected return of -0.5% per hand, versus a night of poker for a very good player, versus the money put into opening a restaurant, etc.  In all of that there is complicated and interesting plays around expected return, risk mitigation, timeline, etc. The degree of risk and/or diversification one sees in a portfolio seems so all over the place (e.g. many feel "fully invested/diversified" in the market with VTI, while someone with VT laughs at them....)

I used to laugh at a casino with a buddy of mine that would be devasted with a $100 loss on the night because I knew he, like me, owned a business at the time that could make or lose many thousands every day, much of it out of our control (you try to float as little as you can and get your clients to pay on time, and you try to pick clients that will not file for bankruptcy or challenge your bills (to an extent that would dissolve your entire profit margin), and you hope you picked the right projects and charged the right amount, but in the end there was a lot of chance involved, thank god I got out before covid, I know my primary client clamped down on the wallet so who knows if , when, and how much I would have been paid of huge amounts outstanding).

My dad can't believe I have a 75/10/15 (stocks/bonds /cash) portfolio nearing RE and that I would be such the "gambler".

Sometimes investing in the entire stock market (so blindly investing in thousands of companies I know nothing about), I do feel like much more of a gambler than someone who is carefully selecting their companies to invest in (which does require one to greatly limit the diversification possible thru indexing).  I do basically have the feeling that I'm like someone at a roulette table that generally has the 'odds' slightly in their favor, a positive expected return, but never quite sure, kinda like if a bet on black also paid out on the zeros, most of the time, but no one ever promised that was the rule ahead of time, I just know they usually have done it that way in the past so kinda expect/hope that continues...

Sorry, tangent.








nereo

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #117 on: December 30, 2020, 10:53:56 AM »
I think once the vaccines are widely used people are going to start "living" like there's no tomorrow. enter roaring 20's (the redux!) rather than a 90's scenario. maybe even a lot of gin will be involved - that also has had a Renaissance.

Whoever knew that vacationing would be stamped out of existance for a year or two? People will be treating themselves, not saving, maybe taking on debt? YOLO! Who knows?

I think the stock market will do well during the resulting feasting frenzy. And lots may splurge on Teslas ;P , but of course inevitably it will pop. I'm thinking at least 2 years out from here, and I have to admit I am hard pressed to imagine a way to safeguard my stache. With super low interest rates, RE also gaining steadily during the pandemic, worries on deflation, etc. It does seem that investing in solid companies may be the best overall hedge.


this is certainly possible. It's also possible that the shrinking of our labor force, the record number of long-term unemployed, the massive holes in state budgets and corresponding budget cuts for 2021 (state's can't print their own money, after all...), the trillions in stimulus, the thousands of businesses which won't survive until widespread vaccination allows for 'business-as-before', new lock-down measures, previously-unhit levels of deaths and infections, and other unexpected events might be an anchor on the economy in 2021 and 2022.

After 2008, things didn't get back to 2007 levels for a few years. Unemployment peaked months after the end of the recession. Nothing like a forest fire to stimulate new growth.

No disagreement there.  Iím just pointing out that this assumption that there will be a massive explosion of spending following pent-up demand which will drive a huge boom may be too simplistic.  A forest-fire stimulates new growth, but it destroys an awful lot first.  The fire isnít out yet, and by some readings (including my own) itís going to get a lot bigger before it containment.

Thereís a lot of reckoning once we reach a higher level of vaccination (which, incidentally, is going much slower than they projected even two weeks ago).

seeyalater

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #118 on: December 27, 2021, 10:06:56 AM »
28 Month Update

I've been selling AAPL and slowly putting it into VTSAX, but I can't sell too much in one year or I'll have to pay 20% tax instead of 15%. Pretty good considering 2 years ago my portfolio was at $600K. My goal is to funnel most of it into VTSAX and retire once the portfolio reaches $3M and just live off the returns.

Just for fun, I've also put $10K into OlympusDOA and Wonderland Time (crypto).

AAPL         $1.2M
GBTC   $15K (FOMO)
NIO         $35K (I'm down $15K on this)
VBTLX   $45K
VTIAX   $45K
VTSAX   $488K

Total $2M

BicycleB

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #119 on: December 27, 2021, 01:34:02 PM »
Good update, thanks for keeping us posted.

Best wishes on your continued sales (and the long shots on the side; great respect from me on the honesty).

JoePublic3.14

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #120 on: December 27, 2021, 05:30:07 PM »
Yeah, thanks a bunch for posting an update! Sounds like you are progressing steadily!

Niceday

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #121 on: December 27, 2021, 09:15:16 PM »
Thanks for the update, OP! I'm sad that you sold MSFT, one of my favorite companies!

seeyalater

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #122 on: December 30, 2021, 06:54:17 AM »
Well you know how it goes, things always go up after you sell.

I bought MSFT in Jan 2020 @ $163 and sold in Jan 2021 @ $224 and made about $18K. Had I held it until today, I would have made another $36K...


MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #123 on: December 31, 2021, 02:03:12 AM »
I've been selling AAPL and slowly putting it into VTSAX, but I can't sell too much in one year or I'll have to pay 20% tax instead of 15%.
Are you considering the Net Investment Income Tax ("Obamacare tax") in those calculations?  I think it kicks in at $200k single and $250k married filing jointly, and above that point you're paying an additional 3.8% tax.

goodmoneygoodlife

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #124 on: January 01, 2022, 09:48:43 AM »
Conventional wisdom probably works here. Meaning you should probably diversify.

AAPL is a great company and their M chips will do quite well. But with their phones not really being much more advanced, the only thing keeping people in the iPhone ecosystem...is well, their ecosystem. They do have some long-term dangers if they fail to keep innovating on mobile or innovating in a new arena. Computer innovation gives good revenue -- but the market is much smaller than phones.

I'd just sell a large portion of it and shove it in S&P 500 and/or Nasdaq and/or DOW. And use the minority of your $ to do these YOLO/WallStreetBets plays.

frugal_c

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #125 on: January 03, 2022, 06:40:42 PM »
Fwiw I don't think you got lucky.  I remember looking at apple a decade ago and they were dirt cheap and killing it. You went for it and got what you deserve.  Congrats.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2022, 07:07:59 PM by frugal_c »

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Re: All my Eggs in one basket (AAPL)
« Reply #126 on: January 05, 2022, 12:14:47 AM »
Fwiw I don't think you got lucky.  I remember looking at apple a decade ago and they were dirt cheap and killing it. You went for it and got what you deserve.  Congrats.

I agree, the market was undervaluing AAPL as if they were about to go out of business. I also invested heavily in AAPL and did quite well.  I've been selling over the last few years so it now makes up about ~20% of my liquid NW.

By the way, I made a backwards looking stock returns calculator and if you just invested $350 each month in AAPL since the first iPhone was released, you'd have invested about $63k but your investment would be about $1M (nearly 33% annual returns).