Author Topic: Active investors/Day Traders Thread  (Read 110201 times)

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #50 on: March 10, 2014, 10:16:06 AM »
Got knocked out of my Vale position today with my stop. Took a slight loss but thats ok. Will look to put money elsewhere.

Do you use trailing stops?


Almost always. Always on my trading stocks not so much on my value/longer term names. 

Mister Fancypants

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #51 on: March 10, 2014, 10:45:03 AM »
Anyone else very bullish on Apple and Google right now?
I think that Apple really will deliver with the iphone 6 and iwatch and that explosive growth in stock price
is inevitably if either product launch is a success.

I feel that with both Apple and Google they have so many smart/talented minds at each, in addition to a ton of cash,
and think that both have very bright futures and are not even close to peaking.

Both companies seem like prime candidates to be the first to launch a  truly ground breaking product such as a smart car, that would
leave the stock soaring.
Perhaps I am in Disney Land on this though but what do you think of future of these stocks?

Long term holder of Apple, I bought it at about $70, I was pissed I missed the run up from $45 this was back in 2006, just the iPod days. I got my wife to buy it at $123 and always made fun of her that I had a better cost basis, she got it in around the first iPhone.

We put on 10% trailing stop losses when it was on its massive climb and topped out at just over $700 and stopped out at $625. I had 500 shares, my wife has 250. Yes that was a nice pay day :)

We bought it back at $454 only 400 shares though and still have it, Apple is sitting on tons of cash and have been doing lots of buy backs and I think there is an increased dividend coming in the near future. I would not buy more shares now though. I think they are a great company, but am waiting on something really innovative to come out of them post Steve Jobs and that has yet to happen, he was really there innovative driver and as much as he lacked in business acumen he was the cult that everyone followed.

The upcoming change in CFO's should not be a major stock mover it is being done in an orderly and expected fashion.

As for Google, they are a great technology company, but they have yet to prove they can monetize anything but search, they sell ads and that is pretty much it. As a software engineer I love them as an investor not so much, they spend a ton of money on R&D and never turn a profit from it, they buy companies and patents and still only have one line of profit.

Even the Motorola purchase and its patents is not making them money, Samsung is the big Android money maker, even Amazon does better. YouTube is awesome but was a waste of money. And sorry Google can say "don't be Evil" all they want, they are the king of ulterior motives.

-Mister FancyPants

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #52 on: March 10, 2014, 10:53:56 AM »
Anyone else very bullish on Apple and Google right now?
I think that Apple really will deliver with the iphone 6 and iwatch and that explosive growth in stock price
is inevitably if either product launch is a success.

I feel that with both Apple and Google they have so many smart/talented minds at each, in addition to a ton of cash,
and think that both have very bright futures and are not even close to peaking.

Both companies seem like prime candidates to be the first to launch a  truly ground breaking product such as a smart car, that would
leave the stock soaring.
Perhaps I am in Disney Land on this though but what do you think of future of these stocks?

Long term holder of Apple, I bought it at about $70, I was pissed I missed the run up from $45 this was back in 2006, just the iPod days. I got my wife to buy it at $123 and always made fun of her that I had a better cost basis, she got it in around the first iPhone.

We put on 10% trailing stop losses when it was on its massive climb and topped out at just over $700 and stopped out at $625. I had 500 shares, my wife has 250. Yes that was a nice pay day :)

We bought it back at $454 only 400 shares though and still have it, Apple is sitting on tons of cash and have been doing lots of buy backs and I think there is an increased dividend coming in the near future. I would not buy more shares now though. I think they are a great company, but am waiting on something really innovative to come out of them post Steve Jobs and that has yet to happen, he was really there innovative driver and as much as he lacked in business acumen he was the cult that everyone followed.

The upcoming change in CFO's should not be a major stock mover it is being done in an orderly and expected fashion.

As for Google, they are a great technology company, but they have yet to prove they can monetize anything but search, they sell ads and that is pretty much it. As a software engineer I love them as an investor not so much, they spend a ton of money on R&D and never turn a profit from it, they buy companies and patents and still only have one line of profit.

Even the Motorola purchase and its patents is not making them money, Samsung is the big Android money maker, even Amazon does better. YouTube is awesome but was a waste of money. And sorry Google can say "don't be Evil" all they want, they are the king of ulterior motives.

-Mister FancyPants


I agree with you on Apple. A dividend increase would help them alot and some serious/concrete word on there next product.  Congrats on your profits. I would be a buyer below levels I mentioned but below 490ish would be even more aggressive. For your sake hopefully it just keeps rising.

Google as I mentioned I have never got into. I made some money on Yahoo in 2013 but never have played Google though i read alot of material on them and also agree with what you had mentioned.

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #53 on: March 10, 2014, 11:32:43 AM »
As for Google, they are a great technology company, but they have yet to prove they can monetize anything but search, they sell ads and that is pretty much it. As a software engineer I love them as an investor not so much, they spend a ton of money on R&D and never turn a profit from it, they buy companies and patents and still only have one line of profit.



-Mister FancyPants
[/quote]

Agreed with most of your points above and good work on getting int apple back then!
As far as your point on google not monetizing anything but search, have you been fellowing the google chromebooks at all? They are selling like hotcakes and have apple and Microsoft pretty frightened by them. They are extremely sleek/ functional and some start at just $200. I am actually in the process of selling my macbook retina to "downgrade" to a used chromebook since it really can do everything I need.

This seems to be a perfect price point for these as it is not hard for most to come up with $200-300 for apple like computing experience.

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #54 on: March 10, 2014, 11:58:20 AM »
Agreed with most of your points above and good work on getting int apple back then!
As far as your point on google not monetizing anything but search, have you been fellowing the google chromebooks at all? They are selling like hotcakes and have apple and Microsoft pretty frightened by them. They are extremely sleek/ functional and some start at just $200. I am actually in the process of selling my macbook retina to "downgrade" to a used chromebook since it really can do everything I need.

This seems to be a perfect price point for these as it is not hard for most to come up with $200-300 for apple like computing experience.

http://www.businessinsider.com/google-makes-no-money-on-chromebooks-2014-1

Kind of an increasingly common theme. Give the hardware/software away for free to get users on your platform and monetize in other ways.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2014, 12:07:18 PM by KingCoin »

Mister Fancypants

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #55 on: March 10, 2014, 11:58:52 AM »
As far as your point on google not monetizing anything but search, have you been fellowing the google chromebooks at all? They are selling like hotcakes and have apple and Microsoft pretty frightened by them. They are extremely sleek/ functional and some start at just $200. I am actually in the process of selling my macbook retina to "downgrade" to a used chromebook since it really can do everything I need.

This seems to be a perfect price point for these as it is not hard for most to come up with $200-300 for apple like computing experience.

They sell plenty of products, monetizing them is about making a profit, the sell Motorala Droids but they need to recoup the purchase price.

Here is the article about Chromebooks....

http://www.businessinsider.com/google-makes-no-money-on-chromebooks-2014-1

Like I said great tech company not such a good company for an investor...

Mister Fancypants

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #56 on: March 10, 2014, 12:03:57 PM »
Agreed with most of your points above and good work on getting int apple back then!
As far as your point on google not monetizing anything but search, have you been fellowing the google chromebooks at all? They are selling like hotcakes and have apple and Microsoft pretty frightened by them. They are extremely sleek/ functional and some start at just $200. I am actually in the process of selling my macbook retina to "downgrade" to a used chromebook since it really can do everything I need.

This seems to be a perfect price point for these as it is not hard for most to come up with $200-300 for apple like computing experience.

http://www.businessinsider.com/google-makes-no-money-on-chromebooks-2014-1

Kind of an increasingly common theme. Give the hardware/software aware for free to get users on your platform and monetize in other ways.

That is Google's rationalization everytime they make no money on every new product they have released in their history.

End of they day they have one product that generates all of there revenue, and look at any company who competes with them in any market and every other company has multiple major lines of profit.

Google just doesn't... End of story

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #57 on: March 10, 2014, 12:48:26 PM »
This will be an interesting thread to watch.  I am not a day-trader, but I am learning about short-term options contracts via Motley Fool Options and Pro services.  I will have a small % of portfolio for speculation but that is also meant to be held long-term, but with small cap companies / new early technologies, etc. 

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #58 on: March 10, 2014, 01:06:58 PM »
Continue to add to KMI. Like the 5+ divy. Reinvested approximately 50% of profits took today on PWE sale.  Other than that a quiet day. See what the close brings.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #59 on: March 10, 2014, 01:16:06 PM »
TD Ameritrades Chief Strategist  JJ Kinahan reports clients are rotating to underperforming sectors. Among those being purchased are KMP, CVX and SDRL .  The investor movement index rises to 5.74 from 5.66 in January , gaining for the fifth straight month and setting a new record for the third consecutive month (gauge is 4 years old).

long, KMI, SDRL

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #60 on: March 10, 2014, 01:23:09 PM »
TD Ameritrades Chief Strategist  JJ Kinahan reports clients are rotating to underperforming sectors. Among those being purchased are KMP, CVX and SDRL .  The investor movement index rises to 5.74 from 5.66 in January , gaining for the fifth straight month and setting a new record for the third consecutive month (gauge is 4 years old).

long, KMI, SDRL

I'm long CVX, been in it a year and 3 months took Citi crisis profits and put them there for the nice dividend. It has had nice growth as well.

Although C did grow faster since I sold it, technically holding Citi a little longer would have yielded a bit more profit, but long term I'm not a fan of Citi and I am of Chevron.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #61 on: March 10, 2014, 01:26:58 PM »
TD Ameritrades Chief Strategist  JJ Kinahan reports clients are rotating to underperforming sectors. Among those being purchased are KMP, CVX and SDRL .  The investor movement index rises to 5.74 from 5.66 in January , gaining for the fifth straight month and setting a new record for the third consecutive month (gauge is 4 years old).

long, KMI, SDRL

I'm long CVX, been in it a year and 3 months took Citi crisis profits and put them there for the nice dividend. It has had nice growth as well.

Although C did grow faster since I sold it, technically holding Citi a little longer would have yielded a bit more profit, but long term I'm not a fan of Citi and I am of Chevron.

I am long COP and C. I was long BP but the stock ran so much i had to take the profits. I wouldnt hesitate to add CVX or BP back on any pullback.

KBecks

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #62 on: March 10, 2014, 01:40:10 PM »
Soccer, are you doing this in a taxable or tax-deferred account?  Curious about your paperwork / taxes experience.   How long have you been into day trading?  How does it fit into your port overall? 

I don't have time / brains / luck to day trade, but it's always interesting to see what other people are into. 

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #63 on: March 10, 2014, 01:47:01 PM »
TD Ameritrades Chief Strategist  JJ Kinahan reports clients are rotating to underperforming sectors. Among those being purchased are KMP, CVX and SDRL .  The investor movement index rises to 5.74 from 5.66 in January , gaining for the fifth straight month and setting a new record for the third consecutive month (gauge is 4 years old).

long, KMI, SDRL

I'm long CVX, been in it a year and 3 months took Citi crisis profits and put them there for the nice dividend. It has had nice growth as well.

Although C did grow faster since I sold it, technically holding Citi a little longer would have yielded a bit more profit, but long term I'm not a fan of Citi and I am of Chevron.

I am long COP and C. I was long BP but the stock ran so much i had to take the profits. I wouldnt hesitate to add CVX or BP back on any pullback.

I'm actually still long C, on a different cost basis.... this one has a lot more unrealized gain built in and I'm waiting for a loss to pair it with to sell it.

We bought 1000 shares at $.97 pre reverse-split, so its currently worth about $4900, a nice profit on a percentage basis, but in dollars not such a big deal.

The shares we unloaded were much larger positions with less % gain but bigger dollar amounts.

We even took a loss on one tax lot the current split adjusted price would need to double for that lot to be profitable, we used that loss to offset some of the taxes on the gains of the other sales.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #64 on: March 10, 2014, 02:05:32 PM »
TD Ameritrades Chief Strategist  JJ Kinahan reports clients are rotating to underperforming sectors. Among those being purchased are KMP, CVX and SDRL .  The investor movement index rises to 5.74 from 5.66 in January , gaining for the fifth straight month and setting a new record for the third consecutive month (gauge is 4 years old).

long, KMI, SDRL



Awesomeness!!!!

Well nothing special at the close. My day was what it was! Till tomorrow. I have a long list on my buy list but we will see if something comes into reach!
I'm long CVX, been in it a year and 3 months took Citi crisis profits and put them there for the nice dividend. It has had nice growth as well.

Although C did grow faster since I sold it, technically holding Citi a little longer would have yielded a bit more profit, but long term I'm not a fan of Citi and I am of Chevron.

I am long COP and C. I was long BP but the stock ran so much i had to take the profits. I wouldnt hesitate to add CVX or BP back on any pullback.

I'm actually still long C, on a different cost basis.... this one has a lot more unrealized gain built in and I'm waiting for a loss to pair it with to sell it.

We bought 1000 shares at $.97 pre reverse-split, so its currently worth about $4900, a nice profit on a percentage basis, but in dollars not such a big deal.

The shares we unloaded were much larger positions with less % gain but bigger dollar amounts.

We even took a loss on one tax lot the current split adjusted price would need to double for that lot to be profitable, we used that loss to offset some of the taxes on the gains of the other sales.

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #65 on: March 10, 2014, 10:28:31 PM »
TD Ameritrades Chief Strategist  JJ Kinahan reports clients are rotating to underperforming sectors. Among those being purchased are KMP, CVX and SDRL .  The investor movement index rises to 5.74 from 5.66 in January , gaining for the fifth straight month and setting a new record for the third consecutive month (gauge is 4 years old).

long, KMI, SDRL

Long KMI and CVX, not so sure about SDRL. Among the SA crowd, and dividend investors in general, it's a fun topic. Can SDRL sustain its dividend? Will it be able to grow the dividend? Will the dividend be cut in two years? Each new article posted seems to have a different opinion than the last.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #66 on: March 11, 2014, 06:53:04 AM »
TD Ameritrades Chief Strategist  JJ Kinahan reports clients are rotating to underperforming sectors. Among those being purchased are KMP, CVX and SDRL .  The investor movement index rises to 5.74 from 5.66 in January , gaining for the fifth straight month and setting a new record for the third consecutive month (gauge is 4 years old).

long, KMI, SDRL

Long KMI and CVX, not so sure about SDRL. Among the SA crowd, and dividend investors in general, it's a fun topic. Can SDRL sustain its dividend? Will it be able to grow the dividend? Will the dividend be cut in two years? Each new article posted seems to have a different opinion than the last.

SDRL even if the cut the dividend by half would still be over 5.5% but as of now my research shows it to be safe HOWEVER...that is my own assesment not a recommendation.

Favorite "penny stealth stocks looking to get in" VTG and MONIF.  MONIF below 1$ or breakout of 1.35  VTG here but I will wait for little pull back.

Also looking for entry in HPT for long term portfolio as well as EPR.

HPT
Hospital Properties Trust boosted to Outperform at Wells Fargo
Analyst Jeffrey Donnelly notes five points: 1) a well-covered 7.25% dividend yield with moderate growth expected 2) nearing completion of a multi-year renovation program 3) the pace of portfolios crossing over the 1x rent coverage threshold 4) improvements in corporate governance of late 5) ability to display independence should it decide to terminate the Sonesta management contract.

Currently no position in VTG, MONIF HPT or EPR but am looking for entry points.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #67 on: March 11, 2014, 07:08:51 AM »
Apple lovers.... Pre-market Shares are trading better perhaps on an analyst upgrade.
shares are trading better (up $3.75 a share) in premarket  on no big news.

Perhaps it's due to Pacific Crest's upgrade of the shares to Outperform with a price target of $635.

Currently out of Apple :-(

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #68 on: March 11, 2014, 08:50:03 AM »
I am now acquiring VOD for my longer term holding. Divy is safe and to good to ignore IMNO. However not a recommendation!! Do your own homework.

Long: VOD


Also why SQM people have asked me for my favorite Ag pick.  The company has strong exposure to the Lithium market! and everyone knows what that is good for.  I also like AGU and POT but currently not holding either YET.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #69 on: March 11, 2014, 11:26:04 AM »
Initiating a buy in GE since the are putting the Electric back into there Name GE.

Long: GE

small position and not a recommendation. Longer term holding.

Mister Fancypants

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #70 on: March 11, 2014, 11:33:08 AM »
Initiating a buy in GE since the are putting the Electric back into there Name GE.

Long: GE

small position and not a recommendation. Longer term holding.

You like to keep buying my long term holdings...

Have had GE since the crisis... Wanted to by more when it was trading single digits but didn't pull the trigger... Lowest cost basis is $11.xx

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #71 on: March 11, 2014, 12:32:38 PM »
Initiating a buy in GE since the are putting the Electric back into there Name GE.

Long: GE

small position and not a recommendation. Longer term holding.

You like to keep buying my long term holdings...

Have had GE since the crisis... Wanted to by more when it was trading single digits but didn't pull the trigger... Lowest cost basis is $11.xx


I remember right after the 08 crisis my son was at a camp and I was sending him into his bunkhouse where i had my laptop under the pillow. I believe i bought it at 6.80 a share? and sold it around 13 and was ecstatic. Wish i would of held on but oh well. I will have to see if i can find the numbers but it was right at the bottom.

Just re-initiated  a small position which i sold out of a few weeks ago in GM. The worry s on the re-call and overstock i believe will both be a short term overhang. So i will take advantage of today's weakness. Also added to FCX

Mister Fancypants

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #72 on: March 11, 2014, 12:37:13 PM »
Initiating a buy in GE since the are putting the Electric back into there Name GE.

Long: GE

small position and not a recommendation. Longer term holding.

You like to keep buying my long term holdings...

Have had GE since the crisis... Wanted to by more when it was trading single digits but didn't pull the trigger... Lowest cost basis is $11.xx


I remember right after the 08 crisis my son was at a camp and I was sending him into his bunkhouse where i had my laptop under the pillow. I believe i bought it at 6.80 a share? and sold it around 13 and was ecstatic. Wish i would of held on but oh well. I will have to see if i can find the numbers but it was right at the bottom.

Just re-initiated  a small position which i sold out of a few weeks ago in GM. The worry s on the re-call and overstock i believe will both be a short term overhang. So i will take advantage of today's weakness. Also added to FCX


The lowest I was going to get GE for was $8.82 we just didn't...

Still happy with the position now

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #73 on: March 11, 2014, 01:04:38 PM »
Initiating a buy in GE since the are putting the Electric back into there Name GE.

Long: GE

small position and not a recommendation. Longer term holding.


Maybe it was in the 8$ area i cant remember but it was cheap! Yea you gotta love your position now.

Have bids in for another nibble on both GE and GM below the current market price.

Banks getting slaughtered today!

You like to keep buying my long term holdings...

Have had GE since the crisis... Wanted to by more when it was trading single digits but didn't pull the trigger... Lowest cost basis is $11.xx


I remember right after the 08 crisis my son was at a camp and I was sending him into his bunkhouse where i had my laptop under the pillow. I believe i bought it at 6.80 a share? and sold it around 13 and was ecstatic. Wish i would of held on but oh well. I will have to see if i can find the numbers but it was right at the bottom.

Just re-initiated  a small position which i sold out of a few weeks ago in GM. The worry s on the re-call and overstock i believe will both be a short term overhang. So i will take advantage of today's weakness. Also added to FCX


The lowest I was going to get GE for was $8.82 we just didn't...

Still happy with the position now

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #74 on: March 11, 2014, 01:49:55 PM »
Days end

Re-initiated position in GM
Starter position on GE
Starter position in VDO
Added to C
Added to FCX



Tomorrow folks!

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #75 on: March 11, 2014, 02:16:09 PM »
Days end

Re-initiated position in GM
Starter position on GE
Starter position in VDO
Added to C
Added to FCX



Tomorrow folks!

Do you trade for a living or is this on the side?

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #76 on: March 11, 2014, 02:49:39 PM »
Days end

Re-initiated position in GM
Starter position on GE
Starter position in VDO
Added to C
Added to FCX



Tomorrow folks!

Do you trade for a living or is this on the side?


I am in ER...So i trade for a living in the sense that I use a percentage of my portfolio that I trade with for extra cash! I have been trading for 15+/- years.

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #77 on: March 11, 2014, 03:12:46 PM »
Days end

Re-initiated position in GM
Starter position on GE
Starter position in VDO
Added to C
Added to FCX



Tomorrow folks!

Do you trade for a living or is this on the side?


I am in ER...So i trade for a living in the sense that I use a percentage of my portfolio that I trade with for extra cash! I have been trading for 15+/- years.

Awesome, congrats!  What age did you retire at?  Also, what percentage do you use for trading?

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #78 on: March 11, 2014, 03:23:31 PM »
47. It fluctuates obviously depending on the market and swings in my portfolio BUT since i do it pretty much 10 hours a day and am active on all my investments I try to keep it in the 10% range.  Like anything there are a lot of moving parts to that. One example would be if I have a stock that I want to keep building on. In addition we don't currently live off our ER $$ because we have a business we still receive $$ and autos and Health Insurance from. My wife does that 25-30 hrs a week. So we are actually still adding to our retirement. Its by her choice but I am giving her 3.5 years tops! then shes done or I will sweep business our from under her! :-)

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #79 on: March 11, 2014, 04:30:51 PM »
47. It fluctuates obviously depending on the market and swings in my portfolio BUT since i do it pretty much 10 hours a day and am active on all my investments I try to keep it in the 10% range.  Like anything there are a lot of moving parts to that. One example would be if I have a stock that I want to keep building on. In addition we don't currently live off our ER $$ because we have a business we still receive $$ and autos and Health Insurance from. My wife does that 25-30 hrs a week. So we are actually still adding to our retirement. Its by her choice but I am giving her 3.5 years tops! then shes done or I will sweep business our from under her! :-)

I'm surprised you find it worth it. Even if you're adding 10% incremental return over the index, that's only 1% additional return to the whole portfolio. Slim compensation for 10 hrs a day.

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #80 on: March 11, 2014, 06:14:37 PM »
Love GE for long term dividend growth. I believe they learned their lesson from the great recession, and they are divesting themselves of part of GE Capital. Huge company, large moat, diverse, very large backlog of orders... they will likely have solid, but not spectacular, growth going forward. Should be right around the dividend growth investing sweet spot of 12%+.

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #81 on: March 11, 2014, 07:45:02 PM »
I started most of my positions in GM when the stock was at the recent high of around 41 ish and picked up a few more in the high 30's.
I have been doing this all under a free trading for 60 day period, which has about a week left before it expires and I have to go back to
$9 trades.

I am all for the buy hold strategy but gm has been making me a bit too nervous lately and I have realized the auto industry is not a
sector I know enough about to invest intelligently in. Wondering if I should get out of these positions now over the next week before the promotion for free trades is up. Loss will not be too bad if I sell at the current price but will obviously increase if I wait till the promotion is over + the stock is starting to look even more volatile as of recently.

Main benefit to staying in for me personally would be for the new dividend but I do not yet have a large enough position that this will be all to fruitful for me. Any thoughts on what you would do under a free trade promotion/ situation like this?

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #82 on: March 12, 2014, 05:13:08 AM »
Morning everyone. This supports a bit ,my thesis of why I am staying long GM here is BAML's research note on GM. Consistent with my take. Thinking about adding some more if we open around $35.

Unfortunate tragedy, but impact on stock likely limited
The deaths associated with the alleged faulty ignition switch on 1.6mm old GM vehicles are a human tragedy. From a financial perspective, the impact to GM is likely small, in our view. GMs recall reserves appear more than sufficient to cover the cost of repair and potential liabilities while the sales impact will likely be negligible based on past recalls, in our view. Furthermore, although GM may choose to pay for costs associated with the alleged faulty ignition switches, the total liability may not even reside at General Motors Company, but at the former bankrupt entity though the issue may take time to resolve. Therefore, we believe the ultimate financial impact will be relatively small. Nonetheless, the headlines are depressing sentiment on the stock, and DOJ/congressional investigations are never good news, so the negative impact on the stock may linger temporarily.

Reserves are robust, repairs likely more than covered

GM reserves about $500 per vehicle wholesaled for recalls and similar costs for the lifetime of a vehicle, which in total equates to about $3bn annually. Total reserves at the end of 2013 stand at about $7.2bn. Wed estimate the cost of the repair at less than $50 per occurrence including labor, so on a base of 1.6mm vehicles the total cost of repairs would be about $80mm, well below existing reserves.

Vehicles no longer sold in US so impact on volume is limited

Historically large recalls have had a temporary impact on volumes for the vehicles impacted, which would be a risk. However, all of the vehicles being investigated in the US so far are no longer being sold including the Chevrolet Cobalt, Pontiac G5, Saturn Ion, Chevrolet HHR, Pontiac Solstice, and Saturn Sky. Furthermore, about half of the volume is from the discontinued brands of Pontiac and Saturn.

Sentiment may take time to recover

Although the basics of the recall and investigation may not have a material impact on the stock in the long run, a DOJ and congressional investigation are never good news. Until the rhetoric eases the negative pressure on the stock may persist. We believe there should be more concern about the soft start to US sales early in 2014 and elevated inventory levels, but even these risks are temporary, in our view, as sales appear poised to accelerate into the key Spring selling season.

Price objective basis & risk
General Motors Company (GM)
Our $46 price objective is based on 12x our 2014 EPS, which is at the higher end of the company's historical range but implies an EV/EBITDAP multiple of about 4.5x, which is within the company's normal range. Downside risks are: 1) A slower-than-expected global economic recovery and/or slower recovery in production volumes, 2) General consumer confidence, 3) Another wave of stress in the supply base, 4) New management team, 5) Rising raw material cost, 6) Potential overhang from continued government ownership, 7) Pricing pressure, 8) Inability to retain operating leverage as volumes recover further, 9) Inability to successfully execute future follow-on offerings or capital raises, 10) Risk of further regulation by foreign governments, 11) Higher oil and gas prices.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2014, 05:17:01 AM by soccerluvof4 »

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #83 on: March 12, 2014, 06:03:43 AM »
I started most of my positions in GM when the stock was at the recent high of around 41 ish and picked up a few more in the high 30's.
I have been doing this all under a free trading for 60 day period, which has about a week left before it expires and I have to go back to
$9 trades.

I am all for the buy hold strategy but gm has been making me a bit too nervous lately and I have realized the auto industry is not a
sector I know enough about to invest intelligently in. Wondering if I should get out of these positions now over the next week before the promotion for free trades is up. Loss will not be too bad if I sell at the current price but will obviously increase if I wait till the promotion is over + the stock is starting to look even more volatile as of recently.

Main benefit to staying in for me personally would be for the new dividend but I do not yet have a large enough position that this will be all to fruitful for me. Any thoughts on what you would do under a free trade promotion/ situation like this?



I think the part that bothered me was when you said you invested into something your not familiar with.  Having said that we have all done that. You will find people that pretty much claim only there wins and never there loss's blah blah blah but at the end of the day you need to just right more times than your wrong. So you want to increase your odds by research and using stops etc... 

As far as your 9$ fee that is high. There are alot of trading platforms for less than that and the more money you accumulate like anything you can negotiate your fee.  I use primarily TD Ameritrade and constantly push for lower trading fees and get them.

As far as GM that is a decision obviously i can not help you make. For every bull case there is a bear case out there. I am staying long with the position and will DCA in on weakness.  Whenever i buy a stock I DCA in down and or up but also predetermine my risk based stock by stock. The other day i got knocked out of Vale and was not willing to lower my stop because Brazil stocks seem to be getting worse with all the government interference. Right now probably isnt the time However there will be a time and I will back my truck up to buy shares if they get to cheap not to own. PBR looks interesting if it gets closer to 9$ so watching that one.

Good Luck to you my friend! I hate to mention anything Cramer says because  I am not a fan but what he does say thats true is there is always a market out there!

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #84 on: March 12, 2014, 07:05:32 AM »
Procter & Gamble is slapped with a buy sticker.
BTIG initiates Procter & Gamble (PG) with a Buy rating and a $89-per-share price target.

P&G is one of my Fav's

Long PG

Not a recommendation. Do your own research

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #85 on: March 12, 2014, 07:25:36 AM »
JP Morgan shares same sentiment with a 52$ price Target.

So enough on GM for one day.

I will be looking to add on weakness

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #86 on: March 12, 2014, 07:51:59 AM »
47. It fluctuates obviously depending on the market and swings in my portfolio BUT since i do it pretty much 10 hours a day and am active on all my investments I try to keep it in the 10% range.  Like anything there are a lot of moving parts to that. One example would be if I have a stock that I want to keep building on. In addition we don't currently live off our ER $$ because we have a business we still receive $$ and autos and Health Insurance from. My wife does that 25-30 hrs a week. So we are actually still adding to our retirement. Its by her choice but I am giving her 3.5 years tops! then shes done or I will sweep business our from under her! :-)

I'm surprised you find it worth it. Even if you're adding 10% incremental return over the index, that's only 1% additional return to the whole portfolio. Slim compensation for 10 hrs a day.

I tend to agree with KingCoin you are putting in a lot of time for small percentage returns. Unless your portfolio is so massive that the dollar amount is high enough to justify the amount of time, but then why even bother with a portfolio of that size just own munis...

I would not trade 10 hours a day for 1% improved return on my portfolio.

That's just me though...

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #87 on: March 12, 2014, 08:08:12 AM »
47. It fluctuates obviously depending on the market and swings in my portfolio BUT since i do it pretty much 10 hours a day and am active on all my investments I try to keep it in the 10% range.  Like anything there are a lot of moving parts to that. One example would be if I have a stock that I want to keep building on. In addition we don't currently live off our ER $$ because we have a business we still receive $$ and autos and Health Insurance from. My wife does that 25-30 hrs a week. So we are actually still adding to our retirement. Its by her choice but I am giving her 3.5 years tops! then shes done or I will sweep business our from under her! :-)

I'm surprised you find it worth it. Even if you're adding 10% incremental return over the index, that's only 1% additional return to the whole portfolio. Slim compensation for 10 hrs a day.

I tend to agree with KingCoin you are putting in a lot of time for small percentage returns. Unless your portfolio is so massive that the dollar amount is high enough to justify the amount of time, but then why even bother with a portfolio of that size just own munis...

I would not trade 10 hours a day for 1% improved return on my portfolio.

That's just me though...


I respect Kingcoins opinions 100% as he is a very smart/intelligent person and in other areas have take note of his advice HOWEVER, I didn't start this thread to defend myself and to your point he has no idea of A) what my portfolio is made up of and B) what percentage I make or my other motives to be trading.  As I have mentioned I have been doing this for longer than I believe half his age so I feel pretty comfortable in what I am doing. So having said that I will move on from that discussion and not address it again.

Beyond that I got knocked out of BWP for a loss this morning but several holding are showing strength thus far. PG, FCX, VOD, SO, just to name a few.

I have buy orders on several existing holdings and a few others that are getting near my initiation point.


soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #88 on: March 12, 2014, 11:09:12 AM »
2 moves-

 Sold shares of FRD which has been trading sideways for a minuscule profit and rolling money into currently held NE
as well as bidding below the Market for some TGT.




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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #89 on: March 12, 2014, 12:13:12 PM »
I don't eat out hardly ever but Ironically the last time it was Sbarro. I remember when i got my change thinking how restaurant prices have just kept climbing. Following more and more the MM ways I just dont see how people can justify eating out.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101484139#_gus 

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #90 on: March 12, 2014, 01:49:31 PM »
Todays end

Out: FRD and BWP

Initiated: TGT

Added too: PG , GM, NE

Tomorrow another day!

Concern of day! Copper and Oil falling at same time.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #91 on: March 13, 2014, 07:11:30 AM »
Good news on 2 of my current holdings today.

First I like American Capital Realty Partners' (ARCP) decision to spin off $2.2B worth of its multi-tenant shopping centers into a separate concern, American Realty Capital Centers. The combination of the two entities should pay a combined dividend of 7.3% up from the current 7%. This move should also help American Capital Realty Partners continue to narrow the valuation discount it has to its largest competitors, Realty Income Corporation (O) and National Retail Properties (NNN).

Second on one that I just initiated General Electric (GE) makes the long awaiting IPO filing to spin off its U.S. consumer finance unit. The company continues to execute against its plan to be more of a pure play industrial concern.

Long ARCP and GE

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #92 on: March 13, 2014, 08:00:03 AM »
I got stopped out of INVN all time high breakout for a small loss yesterday. It looks like it's trying again today so I may have to re-enter lol. I am also stalking FMI all time high breakout.

I generally risk .3% on general all time high breakouts. For stocks that strongly power through their all time high price on great volume I will stalk a low risk entry and risk 1% of my account on those. Note that this is my risk, it is not my position. A stock may take up 10% of my portfolio but portfolio risk is never more than 1%.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #93 on: March 13, 2014, 08:07:36 AM »
I initiated 3 small positions this morning in

RFIL- accidentally high yielder cash rich. Stock that should let you sleep at night.

EDR nice yielder, and  GAT .


NOT RECOMMENDATIONS. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #94 on: March 13, 2014, 08:13:58 AM »
Added to NE at my next buy level this morning. Shares now are yielding 5%. 

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #95 on: March 13, 2014, 08:53:08 AM »
Initiated position in LFC (China Life Insurance).

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #96 on: March 13, 2014, 01:46:29 PM »
Calling it a day. Took advantage of more weakness in the market basically on worries of China slowing and more up-rise in the Ukraine.
In either case I added 5 new positions and added to 6 current holdings.

Initiated New longs in:

EDR
INN
GPT
LFC
RFIL

(mostly high yielders good cash , sleep at night stocks)**


Added to longs in:
FCX
GE
GM
KMI
NE
SDRL


Again this represents just what I am doing and is not in anyway a suggestion or recommendation for anyone to do the same. Do your own research and be involved at your own risk! ** My opinions are simply my own based on my research.


soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #97 on: March 14, 2014, 07:55:57 AM »
Added two positions this morning as I think for the first one 2014 divys is the play for the year so am adding

ROS w/ it 13.5% yield which is safe IMO

Secondly loading up on SLV, cyclical, secular, safety!

Again these are just my opinions, not recommendations in anyway but sharing what I am doing. Do your own research and assess your own risk.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #98 on: March 14, 2014, 12:50:44 PM »
Rolled out of RBS today and Added a nibble of T. Thats all I am doing today so calling it a weekend. To much in the news to go any longer into the weekend. We will see what Monday brings.

CIAO!


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Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #99 on: March 14, 2014, 01:38:00 PM »
I respect Kingcoins opinions 100% as he is a very smart/intelligent person and in other areas have take note of his advice HOWEVER, I didn't start this thread to defend myself and to your point he has no idea of A) what my portfolio is made up of and B) what percentage I make or my other motives to be trading.  As I have mentioned I have been doing this for longer than I believe half his age so I feel pretty comfortable in what I am doing. So having said that I will move on from that discussion and not address it again.

My apologies. That wasn't meant to be an attack, just a back of the envelope calculation. You're right, I don't know how much excess return you're adding. Maybe it's 50% over the index so you're making 5% incremental return (you mentioned that you only actively trade 10% of your portfolio). Maybe it's just fun, in which case I say enjoy.

I'm a trader myself so I'm not knocking active investing broadly (though I don't trade liquid equities).