Author Topic: Active investors/Day Traders Thread  (Read 110245 times)

richcatpoorcat

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 13
Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #400 on: September 26, 2014, 08:45:46 AM »
Great day to load back up on aapl and other tech sell offs

smedleyb

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 434
Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #401 on: September 26, 2014, 12:23:26 PM »
not sure i understand that reply, i think you're implying that because last time they withdrew the market went down so they won't ultimately withdraw

otherwise, you'd have held those positions

i tend to agree with that line of thinking, although one of these times it won't matter and the market will decline just because it does

QE ends in October.  I am anticipating market weakness on the heels of QE ending.

I covered my short (long SDS) and sold my TLT because I owned far too much of the former and a little too much of the latter, as well as I fully expected the market to bounce nicely over the coming sessions given yesterday's trouncing.

The game plan now is to short strength/bounces, using SPX 2020/2030 as my cut and run level on the short side.   

Roland of Gilead

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2100
Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #402 on: September 26, 2014, 03:09:49 PM »
I took up a small position in cancer bio Endocyte again.   This Saturday is some news, which could send the stock to $5 or $15 (bought at $7).

Spin the wheel, I am ready to gamble!

Roland of Gilead

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2100
Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #403 on: September 27, 2014, 09:34:49 AM »
I took up a small position in cancer bio Endocyte again.   This Saturday is some news, which could send the stock to $5 or $15 (bought at $7).

Spin the wheel, I am ready to gamble!

News came out today, 30% reduction in death using Endocyte's targeted drug.  I think we can rule out a drop to $5.

I need a big win.   Maybe....

Rob

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 61
  • Age: 30
  • Location: Milwaukee, WI
Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #404 on: September 27, 2014, 12:31:03 PM »
Anyone have any stake in KORS? I am long with a couple different positions. After crushing earnings today, yet falling 6%, it seems like a screaming buy. I've got a pretty big % in already so I am hesitant to add more, but this company executes again and again and again and crushes estimates every time. They guide low every time, and crush it, yet the sentiment today seems to be concerns with guidance and margins. Just curious if anyone else has thoughts or a bear case.

For example Q1 EPS grew from $0.61 to $0.91. Q2 LY was $0.71, yet they guided $0.85 - $0.87. People have to realize that they are going to destroy that, right? I think they'll easily top $1B in revenue and come in around $0.95 EPS, if not higher. And I really don't see this brand losing any steam through the Holiday season. Eventually the crazy growth will stop but it just doesn't seem like it's happening yet to me.

I believe KORS was around $77 when I wrote this. Has continued to fall. I finally decided to buy more yesterday at $71.35. Can't wait to see earnings.

Roland of Gilead

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2100
Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #405 on: September 27, 2014, 08:48:35 PM »
I am getting more excited about Endocyte (ECYT) after today's presentation at ESMO.

I think this could be the next Gilead and this is 1999 (ie, 5 splits and 10000% ago)

Good results for Vinblastine but their more 100x more powerful drug completely cured breast cancer tumor tissue grafted into mice, something never done before.  It is in phase 1 trials now so a long time before it would reach market (maybe 2016/2017 if fast tracked?)

I might sell some for profit if it does spike Monday (no guarantees, it could go down for all I know about these markets and manipulations) but I am thinking of keeping a kilo of shares or so in my back pocket, just in case this IS the next Gilead.

smedleyb

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 434
Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #406 on: September 27, 2014, 09:30:25 PM »
Scanning individual charts (AAPL, JPM, FB, GILD) has me questioning my entire (short-term) bearish thesis.  These are not the charts of stocks about to "roll over".  And unless the leaders of the bull come for sale, how can this market crack?

I will humbly withdraw my "short bounces" thesis for next week, crawl meekly back to my bear hole, and let you merry bulls reap the bountiful rewards of this glorious bull.  Roland, make some motherfucking money for us Monday!





 

 


Roland of Gilead

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2100
Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #407 on: September 27, 2014, 09:51:41 PM »
I will humbly withdraw my "short bounces" thesis for next week, crawl meekly back to my bear hole, and let you merry bulls reap the bountiful rewards of this glorious bull.  Roland, make some motherfucking money for us Monday!

Heh heh, thanks smedleyb!   Will it be the lady or the tiger on Monday?

YoungInvestor

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 411
Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #408 on: October 31, 2014, 06:45:19 PM »
I just found out about this thread, and I thought I'd share:

I bought a bit of MFC at 20.62 thursday due to it's sub-10 P/E, it's up to 21.39 tonight. My current target is 23$. (Canadian Exchange, not NYSE). Nice 3.7% in two days.

I might keep it to sell covered calls if I don't find something else that's worthwhile.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2014, 06:47:14 PM by YoungInvestor »

Rob

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 61
  • Age: 30
  • Location: Milwaukee, WI
Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #409 on: November 04, 2014, 09:24:04 PM »
Anyone have any stake in KORS? I am long with a couple different positions. After crushing earnings today, yet falling 6%, it seems like a screaming buy. I've got a pretty big % in already so I am hesitant to add more, but this company executes again and again and again and crushes estimates every time. They guide low every time, and crush it, yet the sentiment today seems to be concerns with guidance and margins. Just curious if anyone else has thoughts or a bear case.

For example Q1 EPS grew from $0.61 to $0.91. Q2 LY was $0.71, yet they guided $0.85 - $0.87. People have to realize that they are going to destroy that, right? I think they'll easily top $1B in revenue and come in around $0.95 EPS, if not higher. And I really don't see this brand losing any steam through the Holiday season. Eventually the crazy growth will stop but it just doesn't seem like it's happening yet to me.

I believe KORS was around $77 when I wrote this. Has continued to fall. I finally decided to buy more yesterday at $71.35. Can't wait to see earnings.

Well, KORS significantly beat even my rough projections today, announced a buy back, increased FY guidance... and got crushed down 8.5%. I really don't get it. Revenue growth at 42%, EPS slightly higher, yet the TTM P/E now lags the SP500. Frustrating.

Chuck

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 411
  • Age: 32
  • Location: Northern VA
Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #410 on: November 06, 2014, 11:59:46 AM »
In early September I went long on AAPL, hoping for the 6 to be bigger than analysts were expecting. Bought in on a down day at 98.

I have not been disappointed, but now I'm not sure when to exit. Everyone at work is buying these things... how can I possibly cash out before the holiday quarter?
« Last Edit: November 11, 2014, 06:18:54 PM by Chuck »

Numbers Man

  • Guest
Re: Active investors/Day Traders Thread
« Reply #411 on: November 10, 2014, 04:31:01 PM »
Anyone have any stake in KORS? I am long with a couple different positions. After crushing earnings today, yet falling 6%, it seems like a screaming buy. I've got a pretty big % in already so I am hesitant to add more, but this company executes again and again and again and crushes estimates every time. They guide low every time, and crush it, yet the sentiment today seems to be concerns with guidance and margins. Just curious if anyone else has thoughts or a bear case.

For example Q1 EPS grew from $0.61 to $0.91. Q2 LY was $0.71, yet they guided $0.85 - $0.87. People have to realize that they are going to destroy that, right? I think they'll easily top $1B in revenue and come in around $0.95 EPS, if not higher. And I really don't see this brand losing any steam through the Holiday season. Eventually the crazy growth will stop but it just doesn't seem like it's happening yet to me.

I believe KORS was around $77 when I wrote this. Has continued to fall. I finally decided to buy more yesterday at $71.35. Can't wait to see earnings.

Well, KORS significantly beat even my rough projections today, announced a buy back, increased FY guidance... and got crushed down 8.5%. I really don't get it. Revenue growth at 42%, EPS slightly higher, yet the TTM P/E now lags the SP500. Frustrating.

I'll comment on KORS. I used to be a shareholder for most of 2013. Every time the stock seemed to advance the management announced a secondary offering, thus diluting the shares already out there. This happened about two or three times within a 6-9 month time period. I finally got out since management didn't seem to give a fuck about the investor based on their behavior. Now your mentioning that they are buying back their stock. Jesus, make up your mind management. I also heard a tidbit a couple of months ago that some founding fathers at KORS cashed out their stock. So I really get why investors are bailing on this stock.