Active investors/Day Traders Thread

[soccerluvof4]

Shorted some shares premarket of AZN on news that talks with PFE +6 this morning have stalled. Finding this will most likely not happen.

[soccerluvof4]

Adding to my short of AZN

[Roland of Gilead]

Adding to my short of AZN

I think you might be able to get in and out scalping a few dollars on that short but it would not be a good long term short as AZN by itself was/is a strong company with a fwd PE of less than 16.  It is not going to drop to $50 or anything so drastic, even if the buyout falls through.

[soccerluvof4]

Adding to my short of AZN

I think you might be able to get in and out scalping a few dollars on that short but it would not be a good long term short as AZN by itself was/is a strong company with a fwd PE of less than 16.  It is not going to drop to $50 or anything so drastic, even if the buyout falls through.

Yea this is a tricky one!





Added ESSA long. Trading well below book, has less than 2% default rate on the books. Also has 2.6 current divy and alot of insider buying/ownership. Not to mention in the 2008 meltdown the stock didnt drop hardly. This is going in my long term portfolio for now

[soccerluvof4]

Covered for a quick profit but nothing to write home about

[Roland of Gilead]

Gilead continues to march higher.  I left a lot of money on the table by grabbing quick profits.

How much money you might ask?  About $15,000  :-(

[soccerluvof4]

Gilead continues to march higher.  I left a lot of money on the table by grabbing quick profits.

How much money you might ask?  About $15,000  :-(

No about a 1/4 of that. I couldn't get a big enough chunk.


Having said that I shorted the QQQ's this morning. Moving forward with spring finally here i will be doing alot less trading unless there is a big correction. I will be looking to add to my long portfolio like i did yesterday but only when the opportunity presents itself. And pressing shorts if market rises.

So I will probably be on here less through summer.  There are several stocks on my radar so I will post things i think are good buys as we chug along.

[soccerluvof4]

More news out today on my favorite speculative long which I continue to build on. MONIF

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2154033-monitise-to-benefit-from-smartphone-growth-and-strong-backing?isDirectRoadblock=true&uprof=51

[Roland of Gilead]

Gilead reported earnings of $1.48 per share vs around $0.90 expectations and revenues near 5B vs 3.9B expected.

That should make for a little pop tomorrow (up 2% AH).   I did buy back in a small amount today but not nearly enough to make up for what I sold earlier.  Should have had faith.

[soccerluvof4]

More good news on my favorite spec that i think will at least be a tripler and then some.

More Monitise for Omega
APR 23, 2014 | 7:19 AM EDT
The firm has raised its holding to over 12%.
Omega Advisors raises is stake in Monitise (MONI.L/MONIF) to over 12%.

[soccerluvof4]

adding more shares to my long term holding AINV on another upgrade today and almost 9% divy

[Roland of Gilead]

So Apple had a pretty nice beat and announced a 7:1 stock split.

I unfortunately sold off most of my Apple spread pre-earnings but in one account I did keep 20 June $500 calls and short 20 May $530 calls.   Based on the $563 AH price I imagine the May calls will get exercised and I will close out the spread for $30 (paid $19).

I wonder how the stock split will function on that.   Will I suddenly have 140 calls and be short 140 calls.   That kind of blows as Etrade charges per call (around a buck I think).   I should probably try and close this spread before the split actually takes effect in order to save $200 on commissions.

[soccerluvof4]

More News on my Spec MONIF

Goldman Sachs reiterates its Buy on Monitise (MONI.L/MONIF) late last night ("LT platform vendor benefits outweigh ST business model transition").

Below is a summary:

We reiterate our CL Buy on Monitise and believe the pull-back in the shares provides an attractive entry point. In our view, the endorsements by Visa and Mastercard pave the way in establishing Monitise as one of the potential

standard platforms in enabling mobile money (banking, payments and commerce), bringing material network effects. While we reduce estimates significantly in the short term to capture the shift in business model to the cloud, leading to higher cash burn, we believe they could prove conservative, and that investors should focus on the sizeable long-term benefits, which drive our FY18/19 EPS up 20%-30%. We see an attractive risk reward.

Catalyst

We expect strong positive news flow in coming months on new customer wins (retailers in particular) and partnership announcements, as Monitise is established as one of the leading mobile money platforms, facilitating mobile banking, payments and commerce in both DMs and EMs. The launch and go-live of MCP products/services on a country basis should also provide tangible evidence of success of the m-commerce side of the story.

Valuation

On revised estimates, our 12m blended price target is 105p (from 115p). We derive our price target by assigning a 70% weighting to our core EV/salesbased valuation of 97p/share, valuing MONI on 6.5x CY16E EV/sales based on an implied valuation from our DCF analysis and discounted to CY15 at 14%. We also incorporate a 30% weighting for our M&A valuation of 123p/share, valuing MONI at 8x CY16E EV/sales, the mid-point of the global software deal range (normalized) and discounted to CY15. We have shifted our valuation to CY16 estimates as we believe CY15 reflects an exceptional year weighed by transition costs related to business model change.

Key risks

Visa relationship, competition, management changes, customer concentration, integration/execution related to M&A.

[soccerluvof4]

Very disappointed on the open. If last nights earning dont raise the market by days end what will be the next leg up? and this morning strength in Apple was that perhaps the top? one must wonder. See how today plays out. So far not liking the action

[Roland of Gilead]

I managed to close out the long June $500 call short May $530 call spread for $30.20 which made me happy.  There was little point in holding until mid May just to try and skimp maybe a buck more.  Considering I paid $19 for the spread just a few weeks ago, I think a annualized return of 9000% or whatever it works out to be is quite respectable.

[soccerluvof4]

For peeps that have retirement accounts look into buying NWBI and getting the 1$ special dividend. Shares are at about $14.55. Note I am not in the stock and do your own research BUT if i could trade in my retirement account I would be doing it.

[Roland of Gilead]

For peeps that have retirement accounts look into buying NWBI and getting the 1$ special dividend. Shares are at about $14.55. Note I am not in the stock and do your own research BUT if i could trade in my retirement account I would be doing it.

I looked at it.  I don't get it.  They are not making enough money to support a $1 dividend (even their normal dividend has a high payout ratio).  Are they planning to sell the company and so are trying to get rid of some of the cash?  If so then this could make a good play depending what the sale price will be.

[Roland of Gilead]

Back to all cash today in both IRAs.  I did a little day trade on Gilead when Celgene caused the bio market to tank.  Bought some $72.50 calls for $2.20 and flipped them after I took a shower and shaved for $2.93.  Not a huge trade, about $700 into the lockbox.  Still, every little bit counts.  Edged up to 21% YTD return in one account and 25% YTD in the other.

Trying to make myself stay away from the market for a bit.  It is addicting though.  I only play one side so the only way I can benefit from a falling market is by going to cash and waiting for a buying opportunity.  Soccer has a benefit of playing both long and short.

[thesinecure]

Trying to make myself stay away from the market for a bit.  It is addicting though.  I only play one side so the only way I can benefit from a falling market is by going to cash and waiting for a buying opportunity.  Soccer has a benefit of playing both long and short.

can you not buy inverse etfs?

not advocating it, especially if your mind doesn't operate well in both directions (mine doesn't, but i've been trying to train a little bit at a time)

anyway, just a thought

[Roland of Gilead]

can you not buy inverse etfs?

not advocating it, especially if your mind doesn't operate well in both directions (mine doesn't, but i've been trying to train a little bit at a time)

anyway, just a thought

I guess I could.  The way I trade is I think really hard about the asset I am buying and if I would be happy holding it for long term if the market moves against me.  That is why I am able to buy chunks of Gilead when it has dips.  I wouldn't mind owning it long term if I get stuck in a broad market downturn while playing the dip.  Same thing with Apple, Seadrill, Cisco, Corning.

Something like Zygna or Twitter or even Facebook I don't want to own long term because in my vision of the world those companies don't end up making it.  I don't really want to short them though because I see as through a glass darkly.

[soccerluvof4]

Bidding on F below the market here. They threw the kitchen sink into there report in what looks like clearing the table for the new ceo but the profit/sales in china were better /more profitable than all of last year.  Good entry point imho.

[soccerluvof4]

In F and ave into MAT as well (like the 4% + divy)

[Kevin Aster Tin Obin]

I have been learning about options and want to join in on the fun soon.  Any tips for where to get best advice?  Right now i hear selling calls is good option..

And I have sharebuilder.. is E trade better?  Or other broker recommended?

Up to now buying dividend stocks on dips for long term hold..  Trying to weigh buying another rental property or putting cash into playing stocks..

thanks

[Roland of Gilead]

I have been learning about options and want to join in on the fun soon.  Any tips for where to get best advice?  Right now i hear selling calls is good option..

And I have sharebuilder.. is E trade better?  Or other broker recommended?

Up to now buying dividend stocks on dips for long term hold..  Trying to weigh buying another rental property or putting cash into playing stocks..

thanks

For option trading I would highly recommend OptionsHouse.  They give you 100 free trades on stocks or options when you open an account (I think with $3000).  You also can get 30 free trades or $150 for referring other people but I am not trying to do that I just use them as my trading house and love the cheap fees. 

With the 100 free trades you can get a feel for playing with covered calls or selling puts or buying calls or puts, writing spreads.  You can go tiny and diversify so you don't lose all your money because your trades are free.

You might try sticking with your dividend stocks but selling calls against them for more income and some downside protection.  Best to do all of this in a IRA though so you don't generate unqualified dividends or nasty taxes.

[Kevin Aster Tin Obin]

Thanks Roland, I have about $30K and 7 stocks in my IRA at sharebuilder, so will try to start selling calls there to start..  Was just learning about credit spreads, iron condors, naked something or other..  suggest any of those?

But also want to buy new stocks, but that will have to be outside IRA since its maxed already.. will review tax implications before starting there..

Where is the easy button in all this to get 15% return?  I could put another down payment on 15% ROI investment property, but this takes a lot of work to landlord..trying to free up my time..

[Roland of Gilead]

Thanks Roland, I have about $30K and 7 stocks in my IRA at sharebuilder, so will try to start selling calls there to start..  Was just learning about credit spreads, iron condors, naked something or other..  suggest any of those?

But also want to buy new stocks, but that will have to be outside IRA since its maxed already.. will review tax implications before starting there..

Where is the easy button in all this to get 15% return?  I could put another down payment on 15% ROI investment property, but this takes a lot of work to landlord..trying to free up my time..

Easy button?  Not sure but I made 55% on Apple in three weeks with a diagonal call spread, even cashed it out months early (gave up about 5% potential gain).  Of course you can't always count on Apple doing a 7:1 split and beating earnings :-)

[soccerluvof4]

Russel 2000 weak again

Long TZA

This trade keeps working so going to keep doing till it doesnt

[Chuck]

I have about 28% of my portfolio invested actively. I have positions in T and F (both bought after lousy earnings last week), MO (because sin money is yummy), CLX, KO, HD, INTC, JNJ, MCD, PG, RTN (bought during sequester- awesome move!), and WMT.

I'm one of those boring, diamond dividend buy and hold guys. Big hit at parties.

[hodedofome]

Selling puts in a dividend portfolio is not a horrible idea http://dividendmonk.com/selling-put-options/

If you want to buy a certain stock, but at a specific price below where it is now, then selling puts will give you income if the stock never gets down to your price. If it does, then you've bought the stock that you want at the price you wanted. Win-win if you know what you are doing and do it right.

[tskzes]

small fry trader here.

I have AAPL shares bought in at low 500,s my trigger finger is itching to sell but I brain tells me to hold on for more gains (and also to get the long term capital gain tax treatment). I might regret this decision because I feel that usually its best to take a profit when things are going good and buy when things are going bad but I think I will hold til at least after the split just to see what happens.

I bought into ARCP at high 13s and lower 13s. I read some good things but some bad things about this REIT (actually I first read about it in this very thread which prompted me to buy it). It's gone down to sub 13.  Do you guys think this company is company is a good investment or just bad news? Dividend is good, supposedly they have the most assets of any REIT and have just recently acquired a lot of property so I would like to believe they should become profitable and supposedly their stock will split and offshoot their shopping center assets which will further increase dividends.What do you guys think? Stick with this stock (or buy more on dips) or get out as soon as possible?

[Roland of Gilead]

Gilead just keeps marching higher.  Today it closed above $78.

If only I had held those $65 options a couple more days, sigh.  Oh well, who needs an extra $20,000 anyway...

I do still have a Jan 2015 call spread, long $75, short $77.50 bought for $0.98.  I think they are currently worth around $1.20 but with Gilead now above the short strike and likely to blast past earnings the rest of the year I see no reason not to wait for the full $2.50 (155% return).

If they get a hit with cancer drugs like they have with HIV, and they keep making money on Hep C cure Sovaldi, I see no reason why Gilead could not become the first trillion dollar company.  At the very least they could break 500B market cap in a few years, making it a 5 bagger.

[soccerluvof4]

I have about 28% of my portfolio invested actively. I have positions in T and F (both bought after lousy earnings last week), MO (because sin money is yummy), CLX, KO, HD, INTC, JNJ, MCD, PG, RTN (bought during sequester- awesome move!), and WMT.

I'm one of those boring, diamond dividend buy and hold guys. Big hit at parties.

There is nothing wrong with boring! I have a whole bunch of boring! that makes me money! passive accounts through vanguard and then my dividend portfolio full of the likes of KO, NE, SQM, ARCP, VOD, etc.....

I have my "active trading account" more to keep my hunger satisfied! and to stay in tune with whats overall going on!

Welcome to the sight! stick around!

[soccerluvof4]

The latest on MONIF....which is my spec play I beleive will be a 5 bagger and am loading up on.  But dont take or assume this in anyway a recommendation! Do your own homework!




http://www.monitisemobilefi.com/mobile-money-industry-insights-may-1-2014/ 


Long: Monif and adding!

[soccerluvof4]

MONIF is getting jiggy! up 14%.  But no...I am playing this as a 3-5 bagger and will buy on dips instead.

[monstera051289]

Last two weeks have been super flat for a contrarian trader like myself. Hardly anything popping up on my watchlists and the ones that do pop up never get to the price I want. I shorted MACK this morning at $7 and got out at $6.80 about 30 seconds later. Other than that I'm just holding a few longs from earlier this week - hoping they pop tomorrow or Monday.

[soccerluvof4]

Despite the name of the thread doing NOTHING

Have buy orders in on OCN and OAK but that is all. Nice reversal in the market

[soccerluvof4]

Monitise (LSE:MONI), a global leader in Mobile Money – banking, paying and buying with a mobile device – today announces a new partnership with First Gulf Bank to launch new mobile banking services to consumers in the Middle East.


Long favorite spec: MONIF

[Roland of Gilead]

This week I am dabbling back with Thompson Creek Metals (TC).

They will be announcing earnings soon and have reached commercial production of a new mine in Canada at Mount Milligan.  First quarter production was 14.2 million pounds of payable copper and 39.2 thousand ounces of payable gold.  They are still in the ramp up phase during 2014 but by sometime in 2015 they should be at around 65,000 ounces of gold and 23 million pounds of copper per quarter.  The gold covers the cost of mining the copper, meaning they get most of the 90 million pounds of copper per year out of the ground for free.  $200 million in earnings for a company with a market cap of less than $500 million.   Easy math.

The stock has been up to as much as $3.25 recently but is now trading around $2.60.  I am nibbling at it but have several thousand shares locked away at $1.80 (the 2 year low).  I have been buying a few thousand shares on the dips and selling on the pops.  Long term I think it is a $7+ stock but might as well make some cash along the way.

[soccerluvof4]

This week I am dabbling back with Thompson Creek Metals (TC).

They will be announcing earnings soon and have reached commercial production of a new mine in Canada at Mount Milligan.  First quarter production was 14.2 million pounds of payable copper and 39.2 thousand ounces of payable gold.  They are still in the ramp up phase during 2014 but by sometime in 2015 they should be at around 65,000 ounces of gold and 23 million pounds of copper per quarter.  The gold covers the cost of mining the copper, meaning they get most of the 90 million pounds of copper per year out of the ground for free.  $200 million in earnings for a company with a market cap of less than $500 million.   Easy math.

The stock has been up to as much as $3.25 recently but is now trading around $2.60.  I am nibbling at it but have several thousand shares locked away at $1.80 (the 2 year low).  I have been buying a few thousand shares on the dips and selling on the pops.  Long term I think it is a $7+ stock but might as well make some cash along the way.

I like TC as well. Just own to many others in the sector. Think you will do well with it.

[Roland of Gilead]

I like TC as well. Just own to many others in the sector. Think you will do well with it.

I also own 800 shares of FCX so am a bit overexposed to copper mining but at least FCX now has a oil and gas aspect.  They also pay a nice dividend.

There is little chance though that FCX will double to $70 in the next two years but a very good chance for TC to be $5.   Moly has been climbing too and is above $13 (last year it was below $10).

[soccerluvof4]

I like TC as well. Just own to many others in the sector. Think you will do well with it.

I also own 800 shares of FCX so am a bit overexposed to copper mining but at least FCX now has a oil and gas aspect.  They also pay a nice dividend.

There is little chance though that FCX will double to $70 in the next two years but a very good chance for TC to be $5.   Moly has been climbing too and is above $13 (last year it was below $10).

I am an owner of FCX in my long term holdings as well!

[soccerluvof4]

Taking my profits in TZA yet again! this market has no memory day to day so despite my feeling we will still get that correction i am playing whats been going on.

[Roland of Gilead]

Twatter is down 12%...that was an obvious short in hindsight.

[soccerluvof4]

Twatter is down 12%...that was an obvious short in hindsight.

I touched on all the social media stocks in the thread about Social media being in a bubble. Twitter is in the shitter!

[smedleyb]

Twatter is down 12%...that was an obvious short in hindsight.

And it's about to be an obvious long. 

[Roland of Gilead]

Twatter is down 12%...that was an obvious short in hindsight.

And it's about to be an obvious long.

I just went long a few shares at $32.88.  Not enough to make or lose any real money but just playing a possible bounce.

[smedleyb]

Twatter is down 12%...that was an obvious short in hindsight.

And it's about to be an obvious long.

I just went long a few shares at $32.88.  Not enough to make or lose any real money but just playing a possible bounce.

Waiting for a 2 handle before I pounce.  Maybe I get it, maybe I don't.

[Roland of Gilead]

Twatter is down 12%...that was an obvious short in hindsight.

And it's about to be an obvious long.

I just went long a few shares at $32.88.  Not enough to make or lose any real money but just playing a possible bounce.

Waiting for a 2 handle before I pounce.  Maybe I get it, maybe I don't.

I would probably add a little on a 2 handle.  I bought a ridiculously small amount of shares at 32.88 because I have 65 free trades to use up before August and am just dinking around.

[soccerluvof4]

Sold TZA too early but never regret a profit!

[soccerluvof4]

Bidding for MOS below the Market. Good outlook!