Author Topic: Accumulation Phase Simulator?  (Read 1364 times)

VoteCthulu

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Accumulation Phase Simulator?
« on: February 21, 2017, 10:46:42 AM »
Can anyone link to an accumulation phase simulator?

There are plenty of retirement calculators like cfiresim that show how often a given portfolio would have succeeded given historical data, but my google-foo was too weak to find something similar for the accumulation phase.

A sample question such a simulator might answer: Given an inflating adjusted annual savings rate of x, and a target total savings of say 15x, what is the likely hood of hitting 15x each year for a given portfolio (or even just a 100% S&P 500)?

Ocinfo

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Re: Accumulation Phase Simulator?
« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2017, 12:13:41 PM »
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/monte-carlo-simulation

I've been using the calculator above recently. It Does a good amount of what you're looking for.


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VoteCthulu

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Re: Accumulation Phase Simulator?
« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2017, 04:32:43 PM »
That simulator does allow for contributions instead of only withdrawals, but it's only tells you then end amount given a fixed number of years. It seems more relevant for those saving to allow you to enter a fixed end amount and provide data about the years it took to reach it.

Thanks for the link, it's a different simulator than I'd found so far.

moonpalace

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Re: Accumulation Phase Simulator?
« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2017, 02:13:28 PM »
That simulator does allow for contributions instead of only withdrawals, but it's only tells you then end amount given a fixed number of years. It seems more relevant for those saving to allow you to enter a fixed end amount and provide data about the years it took to reach it.

Thanks for the link, it's a different simulator than I'd found so far.

Thanks for asking this question, and thanks for the link!

It doesn't do exactly what you want, but you can click around on the graph a bit to figure out what year you're likely to hit the target amount, based on conservative, median, or optimistic projections.

I'd also be interested to see if there's something that does exactly what you asked, though!

Radagast

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Re: Accumulation Phase Simulator?
« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2017, 11:43:26 PM »
https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/financial-independence/
Portfoliocharts FIRE simulator seems exactly what you want.