Author Topic: Aaaaand the bear market is over  (Read 10886 times)

Mr. Green

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Aaaaand the bear market is over
« on: December 26, 2018, 02:05:00 PM »
Probably not but I am having a hard time figuring out what everyone is so worried about that they're dumping stocks. Just saw an article that businesses just saw the best holiday spending by consumers I six years. Off the top of my head I can't really come up with one piece of solid economic data that indicates a recession is on the horizon. A dip in home or oil prices don't indicate anything, given the other factors in both sectors (rising rates and booming US oil production). Call me a contrarian but I think it would be humorous if the current market gyration ended up being another head fake, like the last couple corrections over the past couple years that had people screaming, "this is it! The Drop is upon us!"

aboatguy

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2018, 02:12:55 PM »
or is it?


DreamFIRE

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2018, 04:27:33 PM »

Mehhh....  a good individual day, but we've still got a long way to go for a full recovery.  I'm down about 3 1/2 years of retirement.

Mustache ride

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #3 on: December 26, 2018, 05:56:27 PM »
The market couldn't have waited 6 days for 2019 IRA money, could it...

Brother Esau

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #4 on: December 26, 2018, 06:37:52 PM »
The "Top Is In" post is dead. Mr. Green has replaced thorstach as our almighty ruler. Bottom is in!!

WhiteTrashCash

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #5 on: December 26, 2018, 07:52:31 PM »
Ding dong! The Bear Market is dead! The wicked Bear Market is dead!

Dances With Fire

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #6 on: December 27, 2018, 05:21:25 AM »
I have always been a contrarian and more than likely continue to be one. The market is looking forward into an unknown future, however (almost) every company in my area is hiring and help wanted signs are everywhere you look. The S&P p/e ratio seems a bit high but not extreme when compared to other years, no?

Have we hit a plateau? IMO, probably but I don't see a big bad bear lasting very long. Lower expected returns? Probably, so try to save a little more going forward.

TomTX

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #7 on: December 27, 2018, 06:29:56 AM »
Dammit! At least wait til January 3rd.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2018, 07:29:48 AM »
Ha, this was only the first leg down of this multi legged wicker bear.

Debonair

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #9 on: December 27, 2018, 07:36:30 AM »
And I was hoping it would be blood in the streets, bulls being slaughtered and the end of the world till I get my bonus in mid February.

Mr. Green

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #10 on: December 27, 2018, 03:07:10 PM »
Ooof! Down 600 points around mid-day only to close up 250. That's some whiplash right there. I pity the pour soul stressing over these wild swings.

WhiteTrashCash

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #11 on: December 27, 2018, 03:31:41 PM »

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #12 on: December 28, 2018, 09:06:36 AM »
The market is quite good at schooling people.  That makes it hard to decide which group will be schooled next:

1) optimists who are using leverage to buy in (as margin loan rates cost more...), because they know it's over soon
2) pessimists who say the bull market is dead, and haven't decided if 2019 or 2020 will be worse.

But there is a much easier prediction to make by changing the time frame: it's very likely the recent market drops will be erased by market gains within several years - because historically, that's very likely (but not certain).

DS

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #13 on: December 28, 2018, 12:03:49 PM »
Top > Bear

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #14 on: December 28, 2018, 12:16:09 PM »
You know that the Top is In when everyone including the shoeshine boy is making fun of Thorstach / market ever having a down year again.

You know the Bear Market is Over when everyone laments that the bear will never end and can't find any good news to share.  I'm guessing that we still have a ways to go.  Won't mind if I'm pleasantly surprised though, I was down 200k from my all time high before the bounce.  Not updating NW or doing much of anything other than a thought experiment about what I want my AA to be when I ER.  I've become more risk averse, even though I can 'afford' to lose more and maintain FI.

Maenad

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #15 on: December 28, 2018, 10:41:52 PM »
Everyone will always be making fun of Thorstach, regardless of Bear or Bull. Mockery Top will never be In.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #16 on: December 31, 2018, 11:50:24 AM »
My recession indicator is the unemployment rate. When it drops below about 4.75% there has always been a recession shortly afterward, and a spike in unemployment.

Mr. Green

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #17 on: January 04, 2019, 09:44:56 AM »
We just got a much stronger than expected jobs growth report and better than expected year over year wage growth. I continue to be lost as to what tea leaves people are reading that indicate a coming recession.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2019, 07:26:05 PM by Mr. Green »

Maenad

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #18 on: January 04, 2019, 10:10:45 AM »
The China slowdown may get us there, I guess we'll see.

bacchi

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #19 on: January 04, 2019, 10:48:13 AM »
The China slowdown may get us there, I guess we'll see.

Or the shutdown, if it persists.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #20 on: January 04, 2019, 11:20:18 AM »
Ha, this was only the first leg down of this multi legged wicker bear.

No!  Not the octo-bear!

chasesfish

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #21 on: January 04, 2019, 01:23:39 PM »
I think this will end up being a bear market without a recession.  It used to happen more often, but not as much since the late 80s.   There will be some scares as we normalize to regular interest rates and it might be two years before we see another top.

The trade negotiations with China are good for the economy long term, I'm of the opinion the intellectual property theft has been hosing US companies for years. 

There were some screaming deals in December on certain stocks.

Immigration politics will be interesting but I'm optimistic there too.  The way to keep this economy cooking without massive wage inflation is reform legal immigration.

I'm an eternal optimist when it comes to investing

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #22 on: January 04, 2019, 01:27:40 PM »
or is it?



Look at today's trading volume. Tiny compared to the last wave of downward pressure.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #23 on: January 04, 2019, 01:35:09 PM »
or is it?



Look at today's trading volume. Tiny compared to the last wave of downward pressure.

Are we saying... the Top is in?

Maenad

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #24 on: January 04, 2019, 02:31:19 PM »
Marketwatch has an article on "panic buying": https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-on-the-verge-of-panic-like-buying-as-dow-surges-nearly-700-points-2019-01-04

We've heard of panic selling, of course, but panic buying? I think they're just making up terms now.

Cool Friend

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #25 on: January 04, 2019, 02:50:36 PM »
Marketwatch has an article on "panic buying": https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-on-the-verge-of-panic-like-buying-as-dow-surges-nearly-700-points-2019-01-04

We've heard of panic selling, of course, but panic buying? I think they're just making up terms now.

As long as we're panicking no matter what, econ pundits are happy!

JAYSLOL

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #26 on: January 04, 2019, 02:52:45 PM »
Marketwatch has an article on "panic buying": https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-on-the-verge-of-panic-like-buying-as-dow-surges-nearly-700-points-2019-01-04

We've heard of panic selling, of course, but panic buying? I think they're just making up terms now.

I like to panic-dollar-cost-average

chasesfish

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #27 on: January 04, 2019, 05:47:41 PM »
Marketwatch has an article on "panic buying": https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-on-the-verge-of-panic-like-buying-as-dow-surges-nearly-700-points-2019-01-04

We've heard of panic selling, of course, but panic buying? I think they're just making up terms now.

I like to panic-dollar-cost-average

I play around with 5-10% of my assets, got to unwind some of the "buy low" stuff.  Would still like another 5-10% before the next drop, would unwind it all at a nice profit and get my cash allocation back

powskier

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #28 on: January 04, 2019, 06:10:09 PM »
As luck would have it I purchased about $6k of VTI in my IRA yesterday at $124.80  ( closed at $128.90 today).
Of course this could prove to be unlucky by next month, or 6 months or a year from now. It will probably prove a very good call 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
 I may be a market timing wizard, should probably get invited to a TV financial show and tell people about what I "see the market doing".

Of course maybe just the fact that I always fill my IRA as soon as possible is more relevant, way less likely to get on TV though.

DS

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #29 on: January 07, 2019, 09:39:05 AM »
or is it?



Look at today's trading volume. Tiny compared to the last wave of downward pressure.

Are we saying... the Top is in?

No need to say. It's always in. ALWAYS

Maenad

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #30 on: January 07, 2019, 12:40:14 PM »
This guy literally says the Bottom Is In (now where did that thread go...).

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-will-climb-15-in-2019-heres-what-to-buy-now-2019-01-07

I just love the talking heads, I've never received so much amusement from people reading tea leaves.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #31 on: January 07, 2019, 01:00:15 PM »
I agree with the OP there is no reason for a sell off and its been a good and much needed adjustment but who knows with this market.  All i could do is what i did and added a little extra on the bigger dip.

Mr. Green

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #32 on: January 07, 2019, 01:44:01 PM »
Markets can always get out of sync with economic fundamentals. The ~20% drop we just experienced shows that. But eventually cold, hard facts take back over and the market returns to some valuation reflecting reality. So I'm not really surprised by a bear market. A recession, on the other hand, is a reflection of cold, hard economic data. I'm definitely glad I'm FIREd and don't pay attention to the day-to-day market news. It's enough to drive you crazy. I suppose that's what they want, so they get your money when you buy and sell.

Nicholas Carter

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #33 on: January 07, 2019, 02:16:44 PM »
The most probable tea leave is that investors have priced in a certain amount of assumed government subsidy, and the Federal Reserve and Trump have taken some steps which indicate that the level of subsidy will be less than that.
For example: Suppose I think that the "true value" of S&P companies is probably about 1800, and the other ~700 of current valuation is the value of government subsidy. (Partly direct subsidy, partly the knowledge that if we see another >350 drop then interest rates can be expected to go down and stay down until things come back up). Therefore, any indication of decreased market subsidy that changes my expectations about the goverment's level of commitment or competency will see me shorting until the S&P hits 1900, and starting to buy if it falls under 1800, or until something else happens to change my mind.

dougules

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #34 on: January 08, 2019, 10:27:43 AM »
One thing, especially of note to contrarians, is that the beliefs of the majority often turn into self-fulfilling prophesy.  Half of economics is sociological.  A side note to that is that people are really fickle; the market may be blindingly optimistic again next week.  Or it may not.  Who knows. 

ChpBstrd

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #35 on: January 08, 2019, 10:50:45 AM »
Perhaps round 2 will occur in February when the easily panicked start hearing more on the news about the coming hard Brexit.

The cat has bounced so many times I'm not sure it's dead.

I'm a red panda

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #36 on: January 08, 2019, 10:53:58 AM »
My recession indicator is the unemployment rate. When it drops below about 4.75% there has always been a recession shortly afterward, and a spike in unemployment.

There have been a number of reports that in some states there are more jobs available than job seekers.

Of course there is 1) a skills gap for the jobs that pay well, and 2) mostly low paying jobs available.

BobTheBuilder

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #37 on: January 08, 2019, 12:59:10 PM »
Regarding Brexit I honestly don't think it will matter after it's done. It is priced in that there will be chaos, because British and European politics are just mad people running in circles.

One if: If after some more agony there is a second vote, and the second vote would end with remain, that would be a huge catalyst for European stocks. But I think that is very unlikely.

sol

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #38 on: January 08, 2019, 01:10:52 PM »
Of course there is 1) a skills gap for the jobs that pay well, and 2) mostly low paying jobs available.

If republicans find a way to stop illegal immigration, there will be TONS of jobs available on farms and ranches, in landscaping and housecleaning companies, and on freelance construction crews standing outside of Home Depot.  Tell your kids they don't need to go to college, there's about to be record low unemployment for anyone willing to put in hard labor for below minimum wage.

Mr. Green

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #39 on: January 08, 2019, 02:30:06 PM »
Of course there is 1) a skills gap for the jobs that pay well, and 2) mostly low paying jobs available.

If republicans find a way to stop illegal immigration, there will be TONS of jobs available on farms and ranches, in landscaping and housecleaning companies, and on freelance construction crews standing outside of Home Depot.  Tell your kids they don't need to go to college, there's about to be record low unemployment for anyone willing to put in hard labor for below minimum wage.
Wouldn't be surprised to learn of a serious new housing shortage, either, due to lack of labor.

steveo

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #40 on: January 08, 2019, 02:56:21 PM »
Of course there is 1) a skills gap for the jobs that pay well, and 2) mostly low paying jobs available.

If republicans find a way to stop illegal immigration, there will be TONS of jobs available on farms and ranches, in landscaping and housecleaning companies, and on freelance construction crews standing outside of Home Depot.  Tell your kids they don't need to go to college, there's about to be record low unemployment for anyone willing to put in hard labor for below minimum wage.

Wages may have to increase to get people to fill those roles. Then prices will rise. Then we get the effect of Tariffs and prices could really go up. We could end up with hyper-inflation.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #41 on: January 09, 2019, 07:08:11 AM »
Of course there is 1) a skills gap for the jobs that pay well, and 2) mostly low paying jobs available.

If republicans find a way to stop illegal immigration, there will be TONS of jobs available on farms and ranches, in landscaping and housecleaning companies, and on freelance construction crews standing outside of Home Depot.  Tell your kids they don't need to go to college, there's about to be record low unemployment for anyone willing to put in hard labor for below minimum wage.

Wages may have to increase to get people to fill those roles. Then prices will rise. Then we get the effect of Tariffs and prices could really go up. We could end up with hyper-inflation.
[/quote




All because of Politicians on both sides of the aisle that are crooks, have there agendas only in mind, and don't have to live by the laws they pass . Not to mention there life time long overextended terms.

I'm a red panda

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #42 on: January 09, 2019, 07:20:56 AM »
Of course there is 1) a skills gap for the jobs that pay well, and 2) mostly low paying jobs available.

If republicans find a way to stop illegal immigration, there will be TONS of jobs available on farms and ranches, in landscaping and housecleaning companies, and on freelance construction crews standing outside of Home Depot.  Tell your kids they don't need to go to college, there's about to be record low unemployment for anyone willing to put in hard labor for below minimum wage.

There are also a lot of jobs available in skilled labor right now. Because everyone went to college and no one is going into trades.

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #43 on: January 09, 2019, 01:49:54 PM »
Of course there is 1) a skills gap for the jobs that pay well, and 2) mostly low paying jobs available.

If republicans find a way to stop illegal immigration, there will be TONS of jobs available on farms and ranches, in landscaping and housecleaning companies, and on freelance construction crews standing outside of Home Depot.  Tell your kids they don't need to go to college, there's about to be record low unemployment for anyone willing to put in hard labor for below minimum wage.
Wouldn't be surprised to learn of a serious new housing shortage, either, due to lack of labor.

More likely that there would be an excess of housing due to reduced immigration. I work in the forest industry. Aside from the current shortage of blue-collar labor, the primary concern at present is that long-term dampening of immigration, combined with slowing organic population growth, will keep new housing demand well below long-term trends. That doesn't bode well for solid wood product demand (i.e., everything but paper) which is primarily driven by new housing.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #44 on: January 09, 2019, 10:51:18 PM »
You know that the Top is In when everyone including the shoeshine boy is making fun of Thorstach


Fomerly known as something

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #45 on: January 10, 2019, 05:33:10 AM »
Perhaps round 2 will occur in February when the easily panicked start hearing more on the news about the coming hard Brexit.

The cat has bounced so many times I'm not sure it's dead.

Well they do have 9 lives.

Mr. Green

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #46 on: January 10, 2019, 12:55:02 PM »
Of course there is 1) a skills gap for the jobs that pay well, and 2) mostly low paying jobs available.

If republicans find a way to stop illegal immigration, there will be TONS of jobs available on farms and ranches, in landscaping and housecleaning companies, and on freelance construction crews standing outside of Home Depot.  Tell your kids they don't need to go to college, there's about to be record low unemployment for anyone willing to put in hard labor for below minimum wage.
Wouldn't be surprised to learn of a serious new housing shortage, either, due to lack of labor.

More likely that there would be an excess of housing due to reduced immigration. I work in the forest industry. Aside from the current shortage of blue-collar labor, the primary concern at present is that long-term dampening of immigration, combined with slowing organic population growth, will keep new housing demand well below long-term trends. That doesn't bode well for solid wood product demand (i.e., everything but paper) which is primarily driven by new housing.
I've lived in large, urban areas with big housing growth in two states and I haven't seen a white man on a building crew in almost a decade. If most of that Hispanic labor dissappeared overnight new home building would basically grind to a halt. I'm very doubtful the reduction in demand would outstrip the loss of labor.

Mr. Green

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #47 on: January 10, 2019, 01:01:16 PM »
Of course there is 1) a skills gap for the jobs that pay well, and 2) mostly low paying jobs available.

If republicans find a way to stop illegal immigration, there will be TONS of jobs available on farms and ranches, in landscaping and housecleaning companies, and on freelance construction crews standing outside of Home Depot.  Tell your kids they don't need to go to college, there's about to be record low unemployment for anyone willing to put in hard labor for below minimum wage.
Wouldn't be surprised to learn of a serious new housing shortage, either, due to lack of labor.

More likely that there would be an excess of housing due to reduced immigration. I work in the forest industry. Aside from the current shortage of blue-collar labor, the primary concern at present is that long-term dampening of immigration, combined with slowing organic population growth, will keep new housing demand well below long-term trends. That doesn't bode well for solid wood product demand (i.e., everything but paper) which is primarily driven by new housing.
You are right though that cutting off immigration is short sighted in that we need that population growth for the economy. Affluent people aren't having kids at a high enough birth rste to sustain the population growth our economic model has been built around.

DreamFIRE

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #48 on: January 10, 2019, 05:03:21 PM »
Of course there is 1) a skills gap for the jobs that pay well, and 2) mostly low paying jobs available.

If republicans find a way to stop illegal immigration, there will be TONS of jobs available on farms and ranches, in landscaping and housecleaning companies, and on freelance construction crews standing outside of Home Depot.  Tell your kids they don't need to go to college, there's about to be record low unemployment for anyone willing to put in hard labor for below minimum wage.
Wouldn't be surprised to learn of a serious new housing shortage, either, due to lack of labor.

More likely that there would be an excess of housing due to reduced immigration. I work in the forest industry. Aside from the current shortage of blue-collar labor, the primary concern at present is that long-term dampening of immigration, combined with slowing organic population growth, will keep new housing demand well below long-term trends. That doesn't bode well for solid wood product demand (i.e., everything but paper) which is primarily driven by new housing.
You are right though that cutting off immigration is short sighted in that we need that population growth for the economy. Affluent people aren't having kids at a high enough birth rste to sustain the population growth our economic model has been built around.

Illegal immigration is very costly.   Even most Americans are net takers, but it's worse for illegals.

https://www.heritage.org/immigration/report/the-fiscal-cost-unlawful-immigrants-and-amnesty-the-us-taxpayer

Mr. Green

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #49 on: January 10, 2019, 09:25:51 PM »
Doesn't matter, that still misses the bigger picture. Bodies drive the engine of capitalism. You want to know what the economics of a declining population looks like, just look at Japan awhile back. A growing population creates a solid economic base at the most basic levels. People require things to live. That means things get made. Start decreasing the amount of things made every year for 15 years and it gets ugly for capitalism. Short of prolonged war consuming substantial resources, there is no bigger domino effect.