Author Topic: A Serious Investment Decision  (Read 10744 times)

mrpercentage

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A Serious Investment Decision
« on: August 25, 2015, 08:00:24 PM »
I have a serious 20% investment decision to make tonight. I have 2 choices and it has come to this. Have you ever resorted to this before?





mrpercentage

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2015, 09:04:10 PM »
I got the same thing 3x in a row. Thats God talking. Limit order in. I can sleep on that.

Cathy

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2015, 12:56:02 AM »
First, an investment system that relies on making trades at random is probably a little bit questionable. I could imagine some possible theoretical systems involving carefully constructed probabilistic algorithms, but it might be a bit more complicated than a coin flip.

Second, almost any kind of "self-administered" randomisation method is useless because you aren't bound by the results. If you don't like the result or alternatively want more confirmation, you just try again, as your very own follow-up post illustrated. The overall results can then be interpreted however you like. In truth, the coin flip was not a randomisation method at all; it was just a way to reconfirm an existing decision and convince you that it was made randomly even though it was not. To avoid this problem, the random decision needs to be mechanistically enforced such that you cannot intervene in the result even if you want to do so. One way to achieve that might be to write a program that directly executes the trades based on randomly generated values, with no chance for a human override. This latter idea is a specific example of what is commonly called "pre-commitment".
« Last Edit: August 26, 2015, 12:57:45 AM by Cathy »

mrpercentage

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2015, 01:55:38 AM »
You might be a psychologist. You definitely read psych books. How do you suggest a decision between two companies you are absolutely stuck on?

The loser in this case is an oil company. It was Chevron. They are not tied to the Middle East and are more home grown and American in my book. I will not speak of the winner. That might jinx it. I know St. Carl Sagan is looking down on me right now and shaking his head. He would say to quit being so superstitious and tell people to quit reading their horoscope on their birthday. Sorry Carl. I love science but there is still magic in my world.

Im looking to hold 20 years on this one. I know, I know, I have no I idea what will happen in 20 years. I am betting I will most likely have all my money back in dividends. I cast this into the future and as Joel would say, "I believe and declare. I am the lender not the borrower."

And God Bless

p.s. You probably thought it was JP Morgan or Apple huh. That would be a good Psych analysis of the picture. They are both companies I love but nope.

forummm

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2015, 07:40:09 AM »
First, an investment system that relies on making trades at random is probably a little bit questionable.

It's better than some I've seen. Given the propensity for people to buy and sell the wrong things at the wrong times, a random strategy would likely outperform many people's intentional trading decisions. A number of studies indicate that typical people don't make any money from investing over the long run because of their bad decisions. Another reason why buy-and-hold the market beats them.

brooklynguy

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2015, 08:07:53 AM »
First, an investment system that relies on making trades at random is probably a little bit questionable.

But mrpercentage's coin-flipping investment system wasn't designed to rely on randomness.  It was exactly the opposite -- it was designed to rely on a guiding force in a nonrandom universe.

mrpercentage

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #6 on: August 27, 2015, 05:05:38 PM »
Chevron was a good call. It's up 10% and would have given a 6% yield on the original investment. I ended up in O. Not as good of a deal in the down turn but I'm get 5% and seeing that yield monthly. I personally have no doubts O will be fine with interest rates but only time will tell. Who cares what the share price does. My dividends will buy just as much new high yielding stuff and I already have a sleeper target in mind. That being said O is a beast with an awesome track record and I'm betting it will win more times then not.

Terrestrial

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #7 on: August 27, 2015, 05:48:49 PM »
How do you suggest a decision between two companies you are absolutely stuck on?

The coin flip method is a good old standby but somewhat anti-climactic in my book.   

I favor the pin the tail on the donkey approach to choosing investments....much more exhilarating....it's a surprise every time you pull the blindfold off!

mrpercentage

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #8 on: August 27, 2015, 06:02:56 PM »
The dart throwing monkey thesis huh. These don't quite fit. I have been sniffing around these for a while. The down turn did tip O over 5%. I was really close to just jumping in Cheveron though. Real close. Property, oil, and big dividends.

« Last Edit: August 27, 2015, 06:04:28 PM by mrpercentage »

arebelspy

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #9 on: November 07, 2015, 03:26:01 AM »
Im looking to hold 20 years on this one.

You coinflipped on which of two companies to invest in and hold for 20 years?

Why not split and do half in both, if you're so confident in each?

I have a serious 20% investment decision to make tonight.

What is a 20% investment decision?  For 20% of your portfolio?
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mrpercentage

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #10 on: February 20, 2016, 10:27:05 PM »
Can anyone calculate this investment decision for me. Both actually, can I time anything?

Kriegsspiel

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #11 on: February 20, 2016, 11:29:16 PM »
I appreciate the notgivedafuckedness.

mrpercentage

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #12 on: February 20, 2016, 11:44:11 PM »
I appreciate the notgivedafuckedness.

Yeah. I mean, if you don't think Cheveron or Reality Income will not do good then don't give them 20% of everything you have the morning of August 26th, 2015. I have heard tons of reasons why I shouldn't get either.

Now if one of you big guys will please take profits so I can more comfortably add to these-- It would be greatly appreciated.

And thank you Jesus

iamlindoro

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #13 on: February 20, 2016, 11:46:19 PM »
I appreciate the notgivedafuckedness.

Yeah. I mean, if you don't think Cheveron or Reality Income will not do good then don't give them 20% of everything you have the morning of August 26th, 2015. I have heard tons of reasons why I shouldn't get either.

Now if one of you big guys will please take profits so I can more comfortably add to these-- It would be greatly appreciated.

And thank you Jesus

I think I speak for us all when I say we'd be a lot more impressed if you had picked the alleged stocks in the first post instead of the last.

And if you could spell the name of either stock.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2016, 11:47:53 PM by iamlindoro »

mrpercentage

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #14 on: February 20, 2016, 11:50:09 PM »
Uh I did. Scroll up. Its time stamped. I said I had to make a decision between two. Then I told I did and it wasnt Cheveron. Then after the order went through I said it was Reality Income and why.

Deny, Deny, Deny

mrpercentage

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #15 on: February 20, 2016, 11:53:56 PM »


The loser in this case is an oil company. It was Chevron.

I ended up in O

Okay, I going to go back to hole I crawled from.

P.S. #askwarren if he will consider a direct stock purchase plan

Could you Becky Quick? Please and thank you

Goldielocks

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #16 on: February 21, 2016, 01:44:23 AM »
A good rule of thumb when I am immobilized with a financial decision.... I ask myself why not do both?  If I am torn about selling -- why not sell half?  Torn between two stocks -- perhaps purchase some of each?   Obviously assuming low commissions, etc..   After all, how often can you research and find TWO excellent picks?  That takes a lot of work to find one.

arebelspy

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #17 on: February 21, 2016, 02:11:52 AM »
A few questions.

1) So 6 months ago you coinflipped, and made an investment.

You said it was to hold for 20 years.

Now, 6 months later:
Can anyone calculate this investment decision for me. Both actually, can I time anything?

I can't imagine what that would be, other than potentially selling.  What happened to the 20 years?

2) O is up ~34%. Chevron ~7.5%

Seems like coin flipping worked well for you.  Did you save that coin aside to utilize more in the future?

3) Was the sole point of bumping this post just to brag?

Well done.  Congrats.  You picked between two winners, and the coin picked the better one (over a 6 month period at least) for you.  Thumbs up.
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mrpercentage

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #18 on: February 21, 2016, 07:17:40 AM »
A few questions.

1) So 6 months ago you coinflipped, and made an investment.

You said it was to hold for 20 years.

Now, 6 months later:
Can anyone calculate this investment decision for me. Both actually, can I time anything?

I can't imagine what that would be, other than potentially selling.  What happened to the 20 years?

2) O is up ~34%. Chevron ~7.5%

Seems like coin flipping worked well for you.  Did you save that coin aside to utilize more in the future?

3) Was the sole point of bumping this post just to brag?

Well done.  Congrats.  You picked between two winners, and the coin picked the better one (over a 6 month period at least) for you.  Thumbs up.

I'm just tired of people saying its impossible to time the market or pick winners. I picked two winners and timed the market-- with God's help. It's time stamped in the post above. It was with a large sum of money (for me). If you pull up the chart you will see I picked the bottom. There are many active managers doing moves like this. It can be done. I moved into KMI (@15.55 cough). How about that? I came really close to jumping in on Freeport around high $3 low $4. I second guessed myself (and wasn't sure if I wanted to be in a mine for 20years) and did it on paper instead. It's $7 right now.

I invest for the long term with the aim to turbo charge the start-- or buy something undervalued as they would say.

That said. Im sitting in Conoco and its down a lot-- but Im still convinced it is a winner. I believe in you Houston.

And yes I know I am about to receive a flurry of you just did it once-- no I didn't, but God bless you.

Booyah Cramer!
And God bless Joel Osteen, and the United States of America.

I am going to go drink Yellow Tail Bold Red and contemplate Christ and the meaning of my life. Good night, or whatever it is to you.

Jack

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #19 on: February 21, 2016, 08:14:50 AM »
I'm just tired of people saying its impossible to time the market or pick winners. I picked two winners and timed the market-- with God's help.

Nobody claimed it's "impossible" to pick winners -- that happens 50% of the time, by definition. What people claim is that it's really, really hard to do consistently over the long term. Your anecdotes have not disproved that.

What I'm just tired of is people gloating about their logical fallacies! (Examples from your most recent post: 1, 2, 3.)

okobrien

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #20 on: February 21, 2016, 09:34:06 AM »
Mr. Percentage,  I like your style.  Your stock picking strategy is under appreciated and might not make sense, but you come out in public, on the MMM forum and share it, knowing that you are going to get beat up about it.  While I have not invested with a coin flip, I have traveled using similar decision making strategies. It leads to interesting outcomes.  While I generally believe that indexing works best for me (at least for stocks, most of my portfolio is in RE) if everyone indexed, the world, and this forum, would be a boring, boring place.

arebelspy

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #21 on: February 21, 2016, 09:39:00 AM »
While I generally believe that indexing works best for me (at least for stocks, most of my portfolio is in RE) if everyone indexed, the world, and this forum, would be a boring, boring place.

I disagree; I think it would be much more interesting!  Imagine never having to talk investments, but instead talking about much more interesting topics!  ;)
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okobrien

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #22 on: February 21, 2016, 09:46:35 AM »
While I generally believe that indexing works best for me (at least for stocks, most of my portfolio is in RE) if everyone indexed, the world, and this forum, would be a boring, boring place.

I disagree; I think it would be much more interesting!  Imagine never having to talk investments, but instead talking about much more interesting topics!  ;)
Good point Rebel, stock investing is less interesting than almost everything else I put energy into.  I guess I was just thinking more about his doing things differently- marching by the beat of his own drum. I know you appreciate doing things differently as well. That is why you are interesting to follow.

mrpercentage

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #23 on: February 21, 2016, 08:04:09 PM »
I was just thinking more about his doing things differently- marching by the beat of his own drum.

Only way to live. I can't blame anybody if I fail. Will not be satisfied with less. When the freight train in my head is scream Freeport I better buy
https://youtu.be/lrpXArn3hII?t=58s

Metric Mouse

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #24 on: February 22, 2016, 09:13:36 PM »
That's awesome. This should be in the badissty sub forum!

NoStacheOhio

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #25 on: February 23, 2016, 10:17:12 AM »
I'm reminded of a quote from Charlie Wilson's War ...

Quote
A boy is given a horse on his 14th birthday. Everyone in the village says, “Oh how wonderful.” But a Zen master who lives in the village says, “We'll see.” 'The boy falls off the horse and breaks his foot. Everyone in the village says, “Oh how awful.” The Zen master says, “We'll see.” The village is thrown into war and all the young men have to go to war. But, because of the broken foot, the boy stays behind. Everyone says, “Oh, how wonderful.” The Zen master says, “We'll see.”

arebelspy

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #26 on: February 23, 2016, 10:34:38 AM »
I'm reminded of a quote from Charlie Wilson's War ...

Quote
A boy is given a horse on his 14th birthday. Everyone in the village says, “Oh how wonderful.” But a Zen master who lives in the village says, “We'll see.” 'The boy falls off the horse and breaks his foot. Everyone in the village says, “Oh how awful.” The Zen master says, “We'll see.” The village is thrown into war and all the young men have to go to war. But, because of the broken foot, the boy stays behind. Everyone says, “Oh, how wonderful.” The Zen master says, “We'll see.”

http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/good-luck-bad-luck/
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mrpercentage

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #27 on: February 23, 2016, 05:49:11 PM »
I'm reminded of a quote from Charlie Wilson's War ...

Quote
A boy is given a horse on his 14th birthday. Everyone in the village says, “Oh how wonderful.” But a Zen master who lives in the village says, “We'll see.” 'The boy falls off the horse and breaks his foot. Everyone in the village says, “Oh how awful.” The Zen master says, “We'll see.” The village is thrown into war and all the young men have to go to war. But, because of the broken foot, the boy stays behind. Everyone says, “Oh, how wonderful.” The Zen master says, “We'll see.”

One of master Gasan's monks visited the university in Tokyo. When he returned, he asked the master if he had ever read the Christian Bible. "No," Gasan replied, "Please read some of it to me." The monk opened the Bible to the Sermon on the Mount in St. Matthew, and began reading. After reading Christ's words about the lilies in the field, he paused. Master Gasan was silent for a long time. "Yes," he finally said, "Whoever uttered these words is an enlightened being. What you have read to me is the essence of everything I have been trying to teach you here!"

iamlindoro

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #28 on: February 23, 2016, 05:52:52 PM »
One of master Gasan's monks visited the university in Tokyo. When he returned, he asked the master if he had ever read the Christian Bible. "No," Gasan replied, "Please read some of it to me." The monk opened the Bible to the Sermon on the Mount in St. Matthew, and began reading. After reading Christ's words about the lilies in the field, he paused. Master Gasan was silent for a long time. "Yes," he finally said, "Whoever uttered these words is an enlightened being. What you have read to me is the essence of everything I have been trying to teach you here!"


mrpercentage

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #29 on: February 23, 2016, 07:29:03 PM »
One of master Gasan's monks visited the university in Tokyo. When he returned, he asked the master if he had ever read the Christian Bible. "No," Gasan replied, "Please read some of it to me." The monk opened the Bible to the Sermon on the Mount in St. Matthew, and began reading. After reading Christ's words about the lilies in the field, he paused. Master Gasan was silent for a long time. "Yes," he finally said, "Whoever uttered these words is an enlightened being. What you have read to me is the essence of everything I have been trying to teach you here!"



where is the point on a sphere?

arebelspy

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #30 on: February 23, 2016, 08:14:24 PM »

where is the point on a sphere?

It depends. Is it on the surface?
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and are now settled with three kids.
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ScarElbow

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #31 on: February 24, 2016, 06:24:41 AM »
I think he's pointing to the moon using your finger, with his hand....while kissing you.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2016, 06:30:13 AM by ScarElbow »

tooqk4u22

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #32 on: February 24, 2016, 08:42:39 AM »
I personally have no doubts O will be fine with interest rates but only time will tell.

Cleary it was fine with interest rates this since you bought but don't think for a second that O is not correlated to interest rates. Just pull up a chart of O compared to the 10-UST - it is almost perfectly correlated - so as rates rise you will lose.  Take a 34% gain now is like 7 years of dividends - good time to sell.

tooqk4u22

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #33 on: February 24, 2016, 08:46:34 AM »
While I generally believe that indexing works best for me (at least for stocks, most of my portfolio is in RE) if everyone indexed, the world, and this forum, would be a boring, boring place.

I disagree; I think it would be much more interesting!  Imagine never having to talk investments, but instead talking about much more interesting topics!  ;)

Actually, while this is nice in a theoretical world it is actually becoming more problematic as index investing takes an ever increasing share of the investment world as it leaves the an ever increasing share of control in the hands a fewer stakeholders - ie if 99% of the market was index investing that would mean that the 1% determines the ultimate value because they would be doing the buying and selling only and that could result in significant volatility and systemic risk, the 1% would also determine the who sits on the boards of all these companies.

So yes index is good but we still need active as well.

TheAnonOne

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Re: A Serious Investment Decision
« Reply #34 on: February 24, 2016, 10:01:40 AM »
While I generally believe that indexing works best for me (at least for stocks, most of my portfolio is in RE) if everyone indexed, the world, and this forum, would be a boring, boring place.

I disagree; I think it would be much more interesting!  Imagine never having to talk investments, but instead talking about much more interesting topics!  ;)

Actually, while this is nice in a theoretical world it is actually becoming more problematic as index investing takes an ever increasing share of the investment world as it leaves the an ever increasing share of control in the hands a fewer stakeholders - ie if 99% of the market was index investing that would mean that the 1% determines the ultimate value because they would be doing the buying and selling only and that could result in significant volatility and systemic risk, the 1% would also determine the who sits on the boards of all these companies.

So yes index is good but we still need active as well.

It would never get to that point. As the market edged to the INDEX world, bigger plays would be available and hold it back... A balance would take hold... if you will.