300k on red.
If It lands on black or 0/00, take the remaining 400k and enjoy the next six months.
I think if our lives were really at stake, we'd be thinking a little bit harder rather than just consigning ourselves to a roulette spin. E.g. what product could we sell on Amazon for a 43% markup? What string of probabilities in the options universe would allow us to either win or try again with longer odds? How many stocks have put options that if rolled monthly without a correction would lead to a 43% payoff in 6 months, and would allow us to sell calls if assigned?
Here are my top ideas, in no particular order. I'll have to pick one or allocate amongst them to play the game obviously, but for now I'm taking a minute to think:
1) Bull Put Spread on the VIX - a bet on chaos around the election:Sell to Open: Nov 17 2020 $25 Put for 1.65
Buy to Open: Nov 17 2020 $24 Put for 1.25
Net credit: $0.43
At risk: $1.00
If VIX (currently 26.16) is more than 24 on Nov. 17 this spread would be worth $0 and I would keep the $0.43 I collected and survive. If VIX ends up somewhere between 24 and 25, my return is (FutureVIX - 25 + 0.43). If VIX goes below 24, I lose everything and resort to a brief crime spree.
2) Bull Put Spread on AAPL (currently 112.25) - basically "Apple will be fine and the tech bubble still has room to inflate"Sell to Open: Jan 15, 2021 107.5 Put
Buy to Open: Jan 15, 2021 102.5 Put
Net credit: $2.15
At risk: $5.00
If AAPL does not fall by at least 4.23% in the next four months, I keep my $2.15 credit and survive. If it goes between 102.5 and 107.5, my return is (FutureAAPL - 107.5 + 2.15). If AAPL goes below 102.5, I lose everything and resort to a brief crime spree.
3) Calls to sell on vaccine announcement day:Allocate 25% of my portfolio to each of the following, attempting not to move the prices too much:
Buy to Open: Royal Caribbean (RCL) Mar 18, 2021 80 Call for $11.48
Buy to Open: American Airlines (AAL) Feb 18, 2021 15 Call for $2.59
Buy to Open: Dave & Busters (DAVE) Jan 14, 2021 20 Call for $3.75
Buy to Open: Darden Restaurants (DRI) Jan 14, 2021 100 Call for $8.10
This portfolio is either going to the moon or crashing hard, like the others. There would be no replay unless I sold the RCL calls a couple of days before the game ended and had a few bucks I could bet at the roulette table, hoping for a highly unlikely winning streak. By January, I would know if I needed to resort to crime.