UPST, MQ, AMPL, HIMS, PYPL, FB, ROKU, PTON, BIGC, OPEN, BLND, TWLO, RNG, TDOC, AMZN.
@hodedofome - I looked at correlations between each of those and both QQQ and WCLD. I looked at some brief information, and their price changes over 5 years (when available). I've decided there's 6 I really want to buy, 3 I'm not sure what to do, and 5 more I don't plan on buying. Could you help me understand the 3 where I'm on the fence?
My favorites, that I plan to buy:
Ringcentral(RNG) 5yr 10x, V-shaped recovery to May 2020 price
Amplitude(AMPL) Sept direct IPO, +50% slowly over 1.5 mo
OpenDoor Tech(OPEN) upswing, big market, market cap of Zillow
Roku (ROKU) spiked pre-pandemic; wait out post-Covid slide?
Blend Labs (BLND) July IPO, cloud banking, off 50% from IPO
Teledoc (TDOC) back to Feb 2020 price, expect more demand
Three companies where I may or may not buy them:
Twillo (TWLO) has been slowly declining over 12 months, in ups and downs. Their 20 price/sales suggests they have room to drop further. Why did they spike during Covid-19? Are they worth 2.7x their pre-Covid price?
Peloton(PTON)... when I saw PTON on your list, I recalled hating it. They have crashed to 1/3rd of their peak value, so maybe that dislike was correct. Trying to take a fresh look, they have 4.1 price/sales, which impresses me. Maybe they're oversold. But they're up +87% since Feb 2020 ... is that justified?
[UPDATE: MQ is 0.94 correlated with GBTC, which is too highly correlated for me]
Marqeta (MQ) is a CNBC top 50 disruptor with JP Morgan and other clients. That's impressive. But they make credit cards... will they ($13B) actually have their own credit network competing with MasterCard ($345B)? Maybe I need to separate their credit card making from their payment network, and dig in further.
And the 5 I don't plan on buying:
Upstart (UPST) 5x Lending Club(LC) cap, but LC 8x/yr. Lose to LC? okay correlation.
Bigcommerce (BIGC) Aug IPO, spike/drop, SaaS retail/not sticky?
PayPal (PYPL) 2x Covid spike, no moat, 1.6% of QQQ. $237B ceiling
Hims & Hers Health(HIMS) spike then -67%, compete w/TDOC? empty/cute?
Amazon(AMZN) already 7.6% of QQQ, too much overlap.
Three companies where I may or may not buy them:
Twillo (TWLO) has been slowly declining over 12 months, in ups and downs. Their 20 price/sales suggests they have room to drop further. Why did they spike during Covid-19? Are they worth 2.7x their pre-Covid price?
Twilio continues to grow revenues at 50%+ and are a best of breed communications platform as a service. It should be fine long term. All best of breed SAAS companies spiked during Covid as the world is going digital and SAAS is the technology to help us get there.
Peloton(PTON)... when I saw PTON on your list, I recalled hating it. They have crashed to 1/3rd of their peak value, so maybe that dislike was correct. Trying to take a fresh look, they have 4.1 price/sales, which impresses me. Maybe they're oversold. But they're up +87% since Feb 2020 ... is that justified?
Peloton sells a physical product and all physical products have supply chain issues right now. They were growing 100%/yr before Covid, grew like over 200% during Covid, and are having some mean reversion. I expect them to continue to grow strongly in the future. The future is a cross between The Jetsons and Wall-E. The Jetsons worked out at home, Peloton is the platform to bring that to reality.
[UPDATE: MQ is 0.94 correlated with GBTC, which is too highly correlated for me]
Marqeta (MQ) is a CNBC top 50 disruptor with JP Morgan and other clients. That's impressive. But they make credit cards... will they ($13B) actually have their own credit network competing with MasterCard ($345B)? Maybe I need to separate their credit card making from their payment network, and dig in further.
Marqeta powers Affirm, Square, JPMorgan, Bill.com and quite a few others. I don't think they are competing with Mastercard, they are providing physical and virtual cards for all types of applications.
And the 5 I don't plan on buying:
Upstart (UPST) 5x Lending Club(LC) cap, but LC 8x/yr. Lose to LC? okay correlation. Lending Club wishes they could be doing what Upstart is doing. Lending Club has been in business for like 20 years while Upstart started like 6 or 7 years ago. Upstart already has more revenues than Lending Club and is growing at like 200%/yr.
Bigcommerce (BIGC) Aug IPO, spike/drop, SaaS retail/not sticky? BIGC may take some time but it appears that they will be taking Magento's (Adobe Commerce) market share. Adobe isn't putting the investment into Magento so BigCommerce is taking advantage of that. Basically, there's Shopify for small merchants as well as apparel of all sizes, but if you are really big, are B2B or want to customize/host it yourself, there's only BigCommerce or Magento. BigCommerce looks like it's the platform of choice now for those merchants. The e-Commerce world is more than large enough to handle a few players.
PayPal (PYPL) 2x Covid spike, no moat, 1.6% of QQQ. $237B ceiling
Hims & Hers Health(HIMS) spike then -67%, compete w/TDOC? empty/cute?
I don't think they are competing directly with TDOC. HIMS is selling prescription meds directly by mail so you don't have to go do the doctor. TDOC is powering remote healthcare but they won't send you prescription meds in the mail.
Amazon(AMZN) already 7.6% of QQQ, too much overlap.