UPST, MQ, AMPL, HIMS, PYPL, FB, ROKU, PTON, BIGC, OPEN, BLND, TWLO, RNG, TDOC, AMZN.
@hodedofome - I looked at correlations between each of those and both QQQ and WCLD. I looked at some brief information, and their price changes over 5 years (when available). I've decided there's 6 I really want to buy, 3 I'm not sure what to do, and 5 more I don't plan on buying. Could you help me understand the 3 where I'm on the fence?
My favorites, that I plan to buy:
Ringcentral(RNG) 5yr 10x, V-shaped recovery to May 2020 price
Amplitude(AMPL) Sept direct IPO, +50% slowly over 1.5 mo
OpenDoor Tech(OPEN) upswing, big market, market cap of Zillow
Roku (ROKU) spiked pre-pandemic; wait out post-Covid slide?
Blend Labs (BLND) July IPO, cloud banking, off 50% from IPO
Teledoc (TDOC) back to Feb 2020 price, expect more demand
Three companies where I may or may not buy them:
Twillo (TWLO) has been slowly declining over 12 months, in ups and downs. Their 20 price/sales suggests they have room to drop further. Why did they spike during Covid-19? Are they worth 2.7x their pre-Covid price?
Peloton(PTON)... when I saw PTON on your list, I recalled hating it. They have crashed to 1/3rd of their peak value, so maybe that dislike was correct. Trying to take a fresh look, they have 4.1 price/sales, which impresses me. Maybe they're oversold. But they're up +87% since Feb 2020 ... is that justified?
[UPDATE: MQ is 0.94 correlated with GBTC, which is too highly correlated for me]
Marqeta (MQ) is a CNBC top 50 disruptor with JP Morgan and other clients. That's impressive. But they make credit cards... will they ($13B) actually have their own credit network competing with MasterCard ($345B)? Maybe I need to separate their credit card making from their payment network, and dig in further.
And the 5 I don't plan on buying:
Upstart (UPST) 5x Lending Club(LC) cap, but LC 8x/yr. Lose to LC? okay correlation.
Bigcommerce (BIGC) Aug IPO, spike/drop, SaaS retail/not sticky?
PayPal (PYPL) 2x Covid spike, no moat, 1.6% of QQQ. $237B ceiling
Hims & Hers Health(HIMS) spike then -67%, compete w/TDOC? empty/cute?
Amazon(AMZN) already 7.6% of QQQ, too much overlap.