About 50% of the time under the 4% rule you were exceptionally wealthy after 30 years.

3% is basically guarenteed to go up over time.

2% and you probably worked too long, for this forum at least. Keep in mind, if you needed 1.5m for 4% you now need 3m, which might add a decade or more to your career.

Ok let's stick to the 4% withdrawal rate.

Does anyone know what is the % chance for how much I would have after 30 years using 4% rule.

For example if I had 1 million dollars, and used the 4% rule, AFTER 30 years I would have:

90% chance of having at least 40 percent of what I started with (including inflation)

70% chance of having at least 50 percent of what I started with (including inflation)

50% chance of having at least 100 percent of what I started with (including inflation)

40% chance of having at least 150 percent of what I started with (including inflation)

30% chance of having at least 200 percent of what I started with (including inflation)

5% chance I would have 0 of what I started with.

Etc..

I just made up these numbers because I don't know what the real chances are. Does anyone know the real numbers? And yes I know past performance doesn't guarantee future returns.