2018 market predictions

[sol]

Where is our annual market prediction thread?  Am I late to the party?

For reference...

December 30 2017 S&P500 is 2673.61, up 19% in 2017.
December 30 2017 DJIA is 24,719.22, up 25% in 2017.

I'm pretty sure those are not the numbers I predicted last December.

Can someone dig up last year's market prediction thread so we can revisit?

[retireatbirth]

S&P: 2400
DJ: 21,000

[sol]

I'll counter with 2800 for the S&P500. 

I'm expecting less, maybe 25,500 for the Dow, only because Apple and friends are so overweighted right now.

[SubL stache]

Tax cuts will do wonders for growth this year.

S&P: will pass 3,000 and end year just below 2,986.

[JAYSLOL]

Ok, I'll have a go

Dow ends 2018 at 27,320
S&P ends at 2890

[bobcobb7]

Let's see how far off these end up

S&P: 2801
DJIA: 26001

[Livewell]

Dow:  27,200
S&P:  2,920, after touching 3,000 and pulling back

Still some life left in this business cycle until the Fed chokes it off.

And I’ll add our current asset allocation is 70/30

[PizzaSteve]

Where is our annual market prediction thread?  Am I late to the party?

For reference...

December 30 2017 S&P500 is 2673.61, up 19% in 2017.
December 30 2017 DJIA is 24,719.22, up 25% in 2017.

I'm pretty sure those are not the numbers I predicted last December.

Can someone dig up last year's market prediction thread so we can revisit?

EOY 2018 Prediction
SandP  up 5%
DJIA up 3%

[bacchi]

I want to guess a decline is imminent but I'm always early.

> S&P has a solid year of +9%, ending at 2913.

The bull is long in the tooth but corporate cash flowing back into the country will give us some stock buy back magic.

[Radagast]

2,880 (CAPE10 ratio above 35)
DJIA... don't care as much... 26,000

[daverobev]

2,880 (CAPE10 ratio above 35)
DJIA... don't care as much... 26,000

Won't CAPE drop as 2007 leaves, though?

[Wintergreen78]

I predict 2018’s returns will probably be between -10% and +30%, unless something really crazy happens. 10% is my best guess.

[Paul der Krake]

Bitcoin at $50,000.

[montgomery212]

Prediction -- S&P up 8% to 2887.

For what it's worth, all the predictions here are far more conservative than any of the investment banks; the most conservative I've seen is UBS which says S&P 2900 or 8.4%.

[Radagast]

2,880 (CAPE10 ratio above 35)
DJIA... don't care as much... 26,000

Won't CAPE drop as 2007 leaves, though?

The worst period was 2009. I tried to round up a little to account for that, but if earnings are strong in 2018 as well maybe it would have to be even higher to account for that... maybe 2,950?

[retireatbirth]

It seems rather arbitrary to use 10 years for CAPE. It got me thinking that maybe we should use 6 years since that is apparently the average length of the business cycle. Is there any way to see what a CAPE 6 would look like historically?

[Half Stached]

Sure... I'll play.

S&P up 5% for the year.

[Mighty-Dollar]

Trump's pro-business tax cuts will bring money into the stock market, promote growth and jobs, etc. I have no clue where the market is going, but just for fun I'll say DOW peaks near 29,000 at some point during the year, not necessarily at the end. Something tells me a black swan event (maybe something to do with North Korea... I don't know) might cause about a 15% correction at some point.

[marty998]

All the predictions I hear about the tax cuts being good for the market are coming from the same school of thought that suggested Trump's election would be bad for the markets.

Fact is the tax cuts have been priced in, assuming traditional capital markets theories still hold true.

Whatever moves the market this year is unknown.

That being said I'll still have a crack and say we'll be flat to negative this year. Inflation will start to rise again and Fed rate rises will attempt to put a break on both that and the clearly stimulatory fiscal policy of your administration.

[davisgang90]

We are literally at the top!  I'm putting everything in Beanie Babies.

[kayvent]

It seems rather arbitrary to use 10 years for CAPE. It got me thinking that maybe we should use 6 years since that is apparently the average length of the business cycle. Is there any way to see what a CAPE 6 would look like historically?

From my understanding, with whole numbers, ten has been determined to be the optimal choice through backtesting for predicting future returns.

[MightyAl]

We are literally at the top!  I'm putting everything in Beanie Babies.

After some lengthy discussion with my daughter all the smart money is in Beanie Boos.

[davisgang90]

We are literally at the top!  I'm putting everything in Beanie Babies.

After some lengthy discussion with my daughter all the smart money is in Beanie Boos.

Darnit!  Guessed wrong again!

[DS]

Everything to 0.

[Mr. Boh]

I'm going to make this easy to remember.

S&P: 500 3k
Dow: 30k
Beanie Babies: $3.00

[Heckler]

100% chance of stock market.  Just like the weather.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Although Heckler beat me to it, my prediction is that the market will still be around.

[HPstache]

S&P500 = 2941
DOW = IDGAF

[Travis]

Bitcoin at $50,000.

A Bitcoin crash in December. Have no fear, people buy lots of flowers in December. Invest in those futures and you'll get your money back. Try tulips.

[SwordGuy]

Two predictions that are guaranteed to come true:

1) If I have to sell stocks, the price will drop right beforehand.

2) If I have a windfall  to buy stocks, the price will rise right beforehand.

[BTDretire]

There will be a Top in 2018.








I hope it wasn't today!

[ILikeDividends]

Bitcoin: $1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.76

[Indexer]

2,880 (CAPE10 ratio above 35)
DJIA... don't care as much... 26,000

Won't CAPE drop as 2007 leaves, though?

It's already been pointed out that 08 and 09 were the bad years for earnings. Even then, CAPE might drop, but not nearly enough to matter. CAPE was designed to encompass a whole business cycle. If it did drop by a significant amount by removing one bad year that would be pretty concerning.


This website lets you run CAPE for different time frames. At 6, 7, and 8 years it is still at about 30. Stretching the time frame out to further than 10 years, mitigating 08-09 influence, also yields a CAPE over 30.

https://dqydj.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio-calculator/


My guess for the market:  It will fluctuate.

[Travis]

Bitcoin: $1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.76

Ever watch the Price is Right?

[daverobev]

2,880 (CAPE10 ratio above 35)
DJIA... don't care as much... 26,000

Won't CAPE drop as 2007 leaves, though?

It's already been pointed out that 08 and 09 were the bad years for earnings. Even then, CAPE might drop, but not nearly enough to matter. CAPE was designed to encompass a whole business cycle. If it did drop by a significant amount by removing one bad year that would be pretty concerning.


This website lets you run CAPE for different time frames. At 6, 7, and 8 years it is still at about 30. Stretching the time frame out to further than 10 years, mitigating 08-09 influence, also yields a CAPE over 30.

https://dqydj.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio-calculator/


My guess for the market:  It will fluctuate.

Thanks for that.

So for the US markets... they are about twice their average? Holy shit.

[Mr. Boh]

Today when the Dow passed 25,000, Trump made a prediction for Dow 30,000.

http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2018/01/04/president-trump-says-dow-broke-25000-substantially-30000-next/#sthash.GQdgNyve.dpbs

I just want to point out that you heard it here first;-)

S&P: 500 3k
Dow: 30k
Beanie Babies: $3.00

[soccerluvof4]

My prediction is we will end the year 2-3% up or down of where we are now. Mostly sideways.

[MrStash]

Two predictions that are guaranteed to come true:

1) If I have to sell stocks, the price will drop right beforehand.

2) If I have a windfall  to buy stocks, the price will rise right beforehand.

OMG so true. Every time!!

[Retire-Canada]

I may be creating a temporal feedback loop that could rupture the fabric of space and time continuum, but here goes!

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/2018-stock-market-predictions/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/prediction-next-recession-starts-late-summer-2018/

[harvestbook]

It would be cool if those who guess also put their guesses for 2017 just in case we have a genius on our hands.

I'm lousy at guessing.

[ChpBstrd]

Tax cuts will do wonders for growth this year.

S&P: will pass 3,000 and end year just below 2,986.

There was a huge tax cut passed in early 2008. I remember getting a paper check in the mail for a few hundred dollars. It was supposed to stimulate the economy.

[retireatbirth]

S&P: 2400
DJ: 21,000

Getting close...

[Radagast]

The whole CAPE10>35 thing is more of a moving target than I expected. In order for my prediction to be right the S&P will actually need to be pretty close to 3100!

[boarder42]

The whole CAPE10>35 thing is more of a moving target than I expected. In order for my prediction to be right the S&P will actually need to be pretty close to 3100!

Yes as 2008 and 2009 earnings roll off there is alot of room to run. Also current earnings are rising.

[retireatbirth]

S&P: 2400
DJ: 21,000

It's possible.

[rab-bit]

S&P: 2400
DJ: 21,000

It's possible.

Not only is it possible, it may prove to have been optimistic.