Poll

What will the S&P 500 return in 2015?

Crash - down more than 15%
5 (3.1%)
Flop - down between 5% and 15%
18 (11.2%)
Neutral - between plus or minus 5%
70 (43.5%)
Strong - up between 5% and 15%
61 (37.9%)
Great - up more than 15%
7 (4.3%)

Total Members Voted: 154

Author Topic: 2015 Return of the S&P 500  (Read 10196 times)

Yankuba

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2015 Return of the S&P 500
« on: January 11, 2015, 01:06:35 PM »
What do you expect the S&P 500 index to return in 2015? Let's ignore dividends and focus on the numerical value of the index...

dividendman

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2015, 01:27:30 PM »
I put strong - up between 5-15%. There is just no better place to put your money!

On the other hand... I don't have all of my portfolio in stocks just in case :D

mxt0133

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2015, 01:38:39 PM »
Yeah, my crystal ball says strong as well.  With the strong dollar and falling oil prices, I think it's a strong physiological boost for people and businesses.  Even if the FED starts to raise rates it well be a strong signal that the economy is doing good.  Longer term those higher rates should moderate or slow down the economy.


wtjbatman

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2015, 03:31:36 PM »
Fastest growing developed country, falling unemployment, low inflation, low interest rates, high productivity, cheap oil...

Risk of deflation, rising interest rates, tanking world economy acting as an anchor to pull U.S. economy down, old bull market, too cheap oil...

Yeah I have no idea. I'll just keep investing and hope for the best.

RapmasterD

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2015, 06:46:19 PM »
I'm not thrilled with these brackets.

I think we'll be in the positive 3 - 6% range....definitely not negative for 2015.

innerscorecard

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2015, 06:47:30 PM »
Uh oh, the poll's looking very bullish so far. Contrarian indicator?

DryIceZ33

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2015, 09:44:42 PM »
According to technical analysis, 2015 will be a good year.. politics say 19.5%, and apparently years that end in 5 do well.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102314777#.

However, I don't follow technical analysis... I'm betting on a black swan for 2015, whether is North Korea/China/Russia doing something stupid, deflation hitting the US, mass currency crises.. it feels like we're due for something.

What does that mean to me?  Keep investing long term assets in stocks and short term assets in cash!

marty998

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2015, 11:40:59 PM »
I have about as much chance as an astrologist to pick this but the numerologist in me says that crashes come every 7 years, or years ending in 7. And they always happen in October. On a Friday.

e.g. 1987 Black Friday, 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, 2007 Subprime.

Or the current cycle - 2001 (Tech wreck), 2008 (Subprime into GFC), 2015 (???)

The answer will be hiding in some ridiculous technical MACD fibonacci candlestick bollinger flag indicator.

Left

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2015, 06:21:47 AM »
Strong for me because I don't care? If it flops, yay I can buy more? If it goes up, I can get more in return?

Cromacster

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2015, 06:32:38 AM »
If I knew the answer to this, I probably wouldn't be browsing an internet forum.  I would be on a beach in the caribbean watching the sunrise.

:)

Timmmy

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2015, 06:38:10 AM »
This....

If it flops, yay I can buy more

I'm a buyer at this point.  The lower prices drop the more shares I can buy.

I'm probably still 10+ years from retirement so I'd prefer a massive market drop now. 

surfhb

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2015, 09:02:36 AM »
A drop of % 15 is a crash?   Lol

Kaspian

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #12 on: January 12, 2015, 09:47:39 AM »
Correct answer:  It's impossible to tell.  I like to live in the realm of facts, not emotion and conjecture.

Bob W

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #13 on: January 12, 2015, 10:10:20 AM »
Over 15%, perhaps could even go over 30% (ahh yes, I remember those years!)   Thing is everything is lined up so nicely for this and people are trend followers.   

Definitely the best year since the crash. 

Now 16 will be tough to tell but we can still see some upside potential there but one may want to roll over to European markets at some point in 15 as Europe is due to hit a bottom and start a recovery sometime in mid to late 15.


Eric

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #14 on: January 12, 2015, 11:34:48 AM »
Over 15%, perhaps could even go over 30% (ahh yes, I remember those years!) 

I should hope so.  2013 wasn't that long ago.  :)

hodedofome

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #15 on: January 12, 2015, 11:44:17 AM »
Thought this was pertinent to this thread http://mebfaber.com/2015/01/12/the-most-not-hated-bull-market/

James

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #16 on: January 12, 2015, 11:52:45 AM »
I expect it to continue upward, though I would love a drop or at least hold steady for a while. Would rather buy lower than the prices right now, but it is what it is, I don't get hung up on values, just keep investing and ignore the changes for the most part.

Indexer

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #17 on: January 12, 2015, 05:57:00 PM »
I'm not thrilled with these brackets.

I think we'll be in the positive 3 - 6% range....definitely not negative for 2015.

This. 

dragoncar

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #18 on: January 15, 2015, 03:11:58 PM »
Relevant and interesting webcast regarding 2015 (stolen from PP forum):

http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-gundlach-webcast-january-13-2015-1


RapmasterD

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #19 on: January 15, 2015, 03:57:51 PM »
I'm not thrilled with these brackets.

I think we'll be in the positive 3 - 6% range....definitely not negative for 2015.

I know we may not be allowed to do this, but I am revising.

NEW FORECAST: 0 - 5% range.

Eric

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #20 on: November 20, 2015, 03:19:45 PM »
The "Neutral" voters are looking strong!!

Yankuba

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #21 on: November 20, 2015, 03:22:44 PM »
Yup. Those knuckleheads on Wall Street cannot beat the collected wisdom of the MUSTACHIANS!

Jeremy E.

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #22 on: November 20, 2015, 04:23:03 PM »
I've just voted today, and with just 40 days left and the market currently up 1.2% so far this year, I voted strong 5-15%

ArtX

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #23 on: November 20, 2015, 04:46:33 PM »
I think it would be neutral, because there is too much pressure around the fed's decision. My guess is they will hike a bit just to calm down the markets, and when it happens it will affect stocks. So i bet on neutral.

Eric

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #24 on: November 20, 2015, 06:34:15 PM »
I've just voted today, and with just 40 days left and the market currently up 1.2% so far this year, I voted strong 5-15%

I think it would be neutral, because there is too much pressure around the fed's decision. My guess is they will hike a bit just to calm down the markets, and when it happens it will affect stocks. So i bet on neutral.

You guys are both cheating!  You needed to vote 11 months ago when the polls opened!  I just bumped it so that we could see how those of us non-cheaters feel about our votes.  :)

Mine was for 5-15 btw, but it looks a little overstated.

SwordGuy

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #25 on: November 20, 2015, 08:20:34 PM »
You forgot to add a category, "Have no clue and ok with that."

mrpercentage

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Re: 2015 Return of the S&P 500
« Reply #26 on: November 21, 2015, 12:04:23 AM »
the 500 pfft

Disney @ $130