Author Topic: 2015 market prediction  (Read 8523 times)

sol

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2015 market prediction
« on: June 29, 2014, 10:47:18 AM »
Using an innovative technical analysis of historical stock market returns dating back to 1929, I have determined that 2015 is going to be a phenomenal year for the stock market.

Year  Return
1935  46.74%
1945  35.82%
1955  32.60%
1965  12.40%
1975  37.00%
1985  31.24%
1995  37.20%
2005   4.83%


The data don't lie.  The expected market return for 2015 is almost 30% with a standard deviation of 13.97%.  I'm going all out on leverage, and fully expect to be be FI on December 31 2015.

matchewed

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2014, 10:48:11 AM »
Muahahahahahah good one. ;)

brewer12345

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2014, 11:05:38 AM »
I laid out a sheet with equally spaced areas with -25% through +25% on each square in 1% increments under the bird feeder.  I will let you know which square is "anointed."

MDM

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2014, 12:41:37 PM »
Sorry, your simplistic analysis leaves much to be desired.  Using a cubic (much more accurate than quadratic or lower, and much less prone to overfitting than quartic or higher) fit, it is clear that 2015 will see a -30.49% return.  Sell on or before 12/31/2104!!!

arebelspy

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2014, 11:56:01 PM »
Using an innovative technical analysis of historical stock market returns dating back to 1929, I have determined that 2015 is going to be a phenomenal year for the stock market.

Year  Return
1935  46.74%
1945  35.82%
1955  32.60%
1965  12.40%
1975  37.00%
1985  31.24%
1995  37.20%
2005   4.83%


The data don't lie.  The expected market return for 2015 is almost 30% with a standard deviation of 13.97%.  I'm going all out on leverage, and fully expect to be be FI on December 31 2015.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlMwc1c0HRQ
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and are now settled with three kids.
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AssetGrinder

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2014, 12:01:32 AM »
Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Where we will really go????

My guess!

5% US
12% Canada
20% europe
25% Asia

My crystal ball is not entirely working so I really have no clue like everyone else what the markets will do.

jstash

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2014, 12:28:07 AM »
2+0+1+5 = 8% return.

"Keep it simple." - Jack Bogle

hodedofome

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #7 on: June 30, 2014, 08:09:13 AM »
I expect the market to cause the most pain to the largest amounts of people, tempting them to buy at the tops and sell at the bottoms like it always has before.

DoubleDown

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #8 on: June 30, 2014, 10:27:57 AM »
Sol, something is going to happen in the stock market in 2015. There is someone close to you that has died in the past. Someone in your family, or perhaps a close friend or relative. They have spoken to me. Their name has an "S" or an "R" in it. Maybe an "M." I can see them -- it could be a man, or possibly a woman. They experienced a difficulty in their life, but they wanted good things for you -- do you know who this is? They say the stock market will be very important for you in 2015.

I will not accept any payment for using my gift. If you do well in the markets because of what I have told you, then share what you think is fit.

arebelspy

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #9 on: June 30, 2014, 10:40:14 AM »
Sol, something is going to happen in the stock market in 2015. There is someone close to you that has died in the past. Someone in your family, or perhaps a close friend or relative. They have spoken to me. Their name has an "S" or an "R" in it. Maybe an "M." I can see them -- it could be a man, or possibly a woman. They experienced a difficulty in their life, but they wanted good things for you -- do you know who this is? They say the stock market will be very important for you in 2015.

I will not accept any payment for using my gift. If you do well in the markets because of what I have told you, then share what you think is fit.

Okay, you know what's really spooky?

If you had said "arebelspy" instead of "Sol" at the beginning of that, it would have totally applied to me.
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and are now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about us, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out our Now page to see what we're up to currently.

Ftao93

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #10 on: June 30, 2014, 11:00:23 AM »
Based on my 6 months of having a positive net worth, and the color of my shirt (Blue), I predict the market will go up by 45% in the first quarter, then drop -72% in the 2nd, after which the Human Race will just be bought out by Martians and sold as jerky.

DoctorOctagon

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #11 on: June 30, 2014, 11:31:21 AM »
Who the fuck cares about next year?  Look longer-term, like 10-40 years, if you want to be rich.

Imagine:

America's economic engine is like the 16-cylinder, quad-turbocharged 1000HP engine present in the famous Bugatti Veyron sports car.  Right now, the car just rolled out of a LONG stop at a red light in a city.  It's driving at 10 MPH and slowly accelerating to 25 MPH as it heads out in the countryside.  Still another intersection or two out of the city, but looks like there will be green lights on the way out.  Imagine a bus full of people driving on the lane next to the Bugatti.  The people in this bus are arguing whether the car will reach 20 MPH or just get stuck at another red light.  None of these folks are talking about the car's true potential, which WILL be realized in the countryside 10 minutes later, regardless of red lights or traffic.

The idiots in the bus represent average investors buying stocks in American businesses and arguing about what's going to happen in the next 3, 6, 12 months.  America's leaving the gridlock and rolling at 10 MPH right now.  It will reach a crazy 250 MPH speed again.  What happens in between is irrelevant.

This is how you should think about investments.  Any other way is a fool's errand.

warfreak2

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #12 on: June 30, 2014, 11:39:05 AM »
Who the fuck cares about next year?  Look longer-term, like 10-40 years, if you want to be rich.
Are you trying to tell me that your Investment Policy Statement isn't a single line, "do whatever Mystic Meg says"?

arebelspy

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #13 on: June 30, 2014, 11:47:53 AM »
Who the fuck cares about next year?  Look longer-term, like 10-40 years, if you want to be rich.
Are you trying to tell me that your Investment Policy Statement isn't a single line, "do whatever Mystic Meg says"?

Mine's pretty close to that, actually.

"Do whatever Mystic Meg says, as long as it conforms to my already held beliefs. If so, give myself a high-five and double down. Otherwise dismiss her as a kook."
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and are now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about us, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out our Now page to see what we're up to currently.

DoubleDown

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #14 on: June 30, 2014, 05:30:29 PM »
Sol, something is going to happen in the stock market in 2015. There is someone close to you that has died in the past. Someone in your family, or perhaps a close friend or relative. They have spoken to me. Their name has an "S" or an "R" in it. Maybe an "M." I can see them -- it could be a man, or possibly a woman. They experienced a difficulty in their life, but they wanted good things for you -- do you know who this is? They say the stock market will be very important for you in 2015.

I will not accept any payment for using my gift. If you do well in the markets because of what I have told you, then share what you think is fit.

Okay, you know what's really spooky?

If you had said "arebelspy" instead of "Sol" at the beginning of that, it would have totally applied to me.

Ha!

Eric

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #15 on: November 20, 2015, 03:18:45 PM »
I really thought that you had this one pegged Sol.  :)

arebelspy

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #16 on: November 20, 2015, 03:24:11 PM »
There's still time...
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and are now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about us, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out our Now page to see what we're up to currently.

sol

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #17 on: November 20, 2015, 03:33:49 PM »
That was a little bit of genius, just to poke fun at the technical analysis people, but I seem to recall that I started this thread in response to another thread about 2015 market predictions and the kooky things that were happening in it.  Anyone have a link to such a thing, so we can check up on folks?

brooklynguy

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arebelspy

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #19 on: November 20, 2015, 03:38:53 PM »
BOOM!

We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and are now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about us, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out our Now page to see what we're up to currently.

sol

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #20 on: November 20, 2015, 03:44:08 PM »
BOOM!

My twelve year old kid would follow that up with "Ohhhhhh, shots fired!" and "Someone call the burn center!"

He's colorful.  And he recognizes a solid dig when he sees it.

trailrated

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #21 on: November 20, 2015, 05:16:10 PM »
Is this part of that shemitah harbinger thing I read about on the forums a few months back? ;)

mrpercentage

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Re: 2015 market prediction
« Reply #22 on: November 20, 2015, 06:32:21 PM »
6% that is my dividends averaged out. Im pretty sure I'm getting 6%. Maybe 5% if I keep buying into crazed rallies.