Author Topic: 2015 Bad invesment performance despite the graphics?  (Read 4006 times)

Bikefreak

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 10
2015 Bad invesment performance despite the graphics?
« on: February 28, 2016, 02:30:54 PM »
I have started investing with TD E-Series last year and i though this year investing was pretty bad untill i saw the 2015 graphic.
here are my results :

RRSP bought in mai / july / august mostly

Canadian index says -8.54% for the year, i got -13.23%
American index says +20.73% i got -.94%
International index says +18.90% i got -13,49%

Bad luck or did i buy at wrong moments at high price ?

TFSA i bough 200$ a week one of  those 3 stocks and i am way far from the 2015 annual return also
at -9% American and -9% international.

Is anyone else getting the same results ? my friends that have not invested anything say it was a great year :)

Thx


Heckler

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1346
Re: 2015 Bad invesment performance despite the graphics?
« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2016, 02:43:12 PM »
Keep in mind the annual result would be from you owning units January 1 to December 31.  Since you didn't, you would never be able to match the return.

Now that you own units, those will get the 2016 returns, assuming you hold them to the end of the year.  New purchases will only perform based on the date you buy them.



My VUN which I bought in November 2014 performed far better than my wifes VUN bought in October 2015.

I find it far more enlightening to keep track of my total balance instead of returns.  My Q2 was up 10% over Q1.  Q3 didn't change at all and Q4 was up 6%.  During that time, I was contributing biweekly the whole time, with the occasional extra shot in the arm. 

Now Q1 2016 is looking like it's down 1%.  I'll get over it.  Need to buy more VCN to balance out!

Heckler

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1346
Re: 2015 Bad invesment performance despite the graphics?
« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2016, 02:46:04 PM »
and yes, you bought in just as the $CAD exchange rate was starting to plummet and oil prices caused things to crash down on the TSX.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CAD&to=USD&view=1Y

Bikefreak

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 10
Re: 2015 Bad invesment performance despite the graphics?
« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2016, 04:25:06 PM »
Good information , thx 😀

MustacheAndaHalf

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1771
Re: 2015 Bad invesment performance despite the graphics?
« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2016, 05:39:11 PM »
How are you measuring the international index?
Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF ("VT") had a -1.86% performance in 2015.
http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=VXUS&region=USA&culture=en_US

It might just be timing, but you could also have invested in emerging markets.  Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF ("VWO") had a -15.81% loss in 2015.
http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=VWO&region=USA&culture=en_US

The above ignores currency changes between Canada and other currencies, so you might also take a look at that.

Bikefreak

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 10
Re: 2015 Bad invesment performance despite the graphics?
« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2016, 05:47:38 PM »
TD Bank fund : tdb911

meghan88

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 702
  • Location: Montreal
Re: 2015 Bad invesment performance despite the graphics?
« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2016, 05:49:22 PM »
I have started investing with TD E-Series last year and i though this year investing was pretty bad untill i saw the 2015 graphic.
here are my results :

RRSP bought in mai / july / august mostly

Canadian index says -8.54% for the year, i got -13.23%
American index says +20.73% i got -.94%
International index says +18.90% i got -13,49%

Bad luck or did i buy at wrong moments at high price ?

TFSA i bough 200$ a week one of  those 3 stocks and i am way far from the 2015 annual return also
at -9% American and -9% international.

Is anyone else getting the same results ? my friends that have not invested anything say it was a great year :)

You are not alone.  I have a work RRSP that's been getting the same amount contributed every two weeks for the last 2 1/2 years.  It's in balanced, Canadian equity and global equity.  It's lost a few hundred $.

I've stashed away 10.5K since Jan 1 and my total net worth has lost that plus another 10K.

I took my TFSA out of high interest savings last August, put it with Wealthsimple and lost over 1K.  "Averaged down" with a 5.5K January contribution and saw it all tank even further.

Put 25K into VCX in mid-January and watched that turn into 24K.

I buy and hold (to my detriment) but I'm looking for a good conspiracy theory at this point.

Heckler

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1346
Re: 2015 Bad invesment performance despite the graphics?
« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2016, 05:56:43 PM »

I buy and hold (to my detriment) but I'm looking for a good conspiracy theory at this point.

it's one of those "good time to buy" times!

meghan88

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 702
  • Location: Montreal
Re: 2015 Bad invesment performance despite the graphics?
« Reply #8 on: February 29, 2016, 09:23:02 AM »

I buy and hold (to my detriment) but I'm looking for a good conspiracy theory at this point.

it's one of those "good time to buy" times!

Really?  All the commentary I've been reading is that stocks are overvalued, due for a serious correction, and the market is too frothy.

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6728
Re: 2015 Bad invesment performance despite the graphics?
« Reply #9 on: February 29, 2016, 12:49:30 PM »
Really?  All the commentary I've been reading is that stocks are overvalued, due for a serious correction, and the market is too frothy.

You've got 3 data points....2 of which are less than 1yr old. That's not much to go on frankly.

I would recommend:

1. stop reading "commentary" Fear-Uncertainty-Doubt will always be well represented because it sells better than "everything is okay".
2. do some research about how the stock market works so you can understand why your data points are pretty meaningless
3. use the information you gathered at #2 to develop an investment plan and asset allocation you believe in and can confidently follow
4. follow your investment plan
5. go on a low information diet to filter out all the "commentary"

All the ETFs I bought in 2015/16 are either down or producing "meh" results. I keep pumping every free dollar I get into them and I even borrowed $5K from my low cost LOC to dump in as well.

I've got a 40yr investment horizon and I'm confident this is the best plan for me to generate wealth at a risk level I can accept. I can't think of an alternative that I like better.
« Last Edit: February 29, 2016, 02:17:13 PM by Retire-Canada »

meghan88

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 702
  • Location: Montreal
Re: 2015 Bad invesment performance despite the graphics?
« Reply #10 on: February 29, 2016, 02:26:49 PM »
You've got 3 data points....2 of which are less than 1yr old. That's not much to go on frankly.

I would recommend:

1. stop reading "commentary" Fear-Uncertainty-Doubt will always be well represented because it sells better than "everything is okay".
2. do some research about how the stock market works so you can understand why your data points are pretty meaningless
3. use the information you gathered at #2 to develop an investment plan and asset allocation you believe in and can confidently follow
4. follow your investment plan
5. go on a low information diet to filter out all the "commentary"

All the ETFs I bought in 2015/16 are either down or producing "meh" results. I keep pumping every free dollar I get into them and I borrow $5K from my low cost LOC to dump in as well.

I've got a 40yr investment horizon and I'm confident this is the best plan for me to generate wealth at a risk level I can accept. I can't think of an alternative that I like better.
Thanks.  It is very hard to filter out the noise.  I've been trying.  I am moving everything into a Vanguard couch potato portfolio.  I will hold the course and keep sending the funds that way once I get out of my mutual funds, many of which have stupidly high MERs and deferred service charges.  I would personally be thrilled with 3% annual returns at this point.  I'm looking at 5 years until I can retire.

To the OP's point, he sounds like he's in the same boat, as I too am surrounded by people who all say they did OK last year.  I guess that they are either geniuses or liars.

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6728
Re: 2015 Bad invesment performance despite the graphics?
« Reply #11 on: February 29, 2016, 02:46:51 PM »
To the OP's point, he sounds like he's in the same boat, as I too am surrounded by people who all say they did OK last year.  I guess that they are either geniuses or liars.



Look at the 1yr returns from Couch Potato Portfolios. Your 1yr return was between 4.95% to 7.95% in 2015. You don't need to be a genius to get those returns. In fact quite the opposite. These are simple easy to manage investment options.

Heckler

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1346
Re: 2015 Bad invesment performance despite the graphics?
« Reply #12 on: February 29, 2016, 08:39:37 PM »

Look at the 1yr returns from Couch Potato Portfolios. Your 1yr return was between 4.95% to 7.95% in 2015. You don't need to be a genius to get those returns. In fact quite the opposite. These are simple easy to manage investment options.

but, you do need to be invested from Jan 1 to Dec 31 to match these returns.

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6728
Re: 2015 Bad invesment performance despite the graphics?
« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2016, 06:03:43 AM »
but, you do need to be invested from Jan 1 to Dec 31 to match these returns.

Yes. That point has been made several times in this thread.

There is no point getting freaked out that money you invested two months ago or 6 months ago hasn't performed as well as you'd like. It's a blink of the eye in investment terms.

There is no magic required to meet Meghan's investment goals. Just a reasonable AA of low MER funds and some patience.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2016, 06:05:53 AM by Retire-Canada »

plainjane

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1675
Re: 2015 Bad invesment performance despite the graphics?
« Reply #14 on: March 01, 2016, 06:48:13 AM »
I think one of the advantages of starting with small amounts diverted to investments on each paycheck is that the market movement is much less evident.  After 6 months you aren't hyper conscious of how much you put in vs. what it is now, while if you put in 10k in May, you are more likely to remember it was 10k. 

Since I'm putting in money all the time, I don't track investment amount vs. growth, I just track the amount in the accounts.  I remember the first time I was down $900 even _after_ I put in ~$1000 for the month.  I plugged my nose, closed my eyes, and put in another $1000 the next month, and then the month after that, and then my balances were up on the year. 

In 2015 for months my balances were basically flat, despite dropping in money (I did end up, but I didn't calculate the % that was growth vs. additional purchases).  In 2016 my balances are down, again despite dropping in money in both lump sums and on paydays. 

Each year, the amount that I am dropping in is a lower proportion of the balance, so I have less control over the month to month number, but by tracking and working through it for years, I've been able to mostly inure myself against the swings.  I'm trying to train myself for when I'm closer to the target number and looking to pull the trigger.