I wouldn't call it gambling, but an attempt to focus your portfolio in this way makes several assumptions. The ones that bother me:
- A recession is definitely coming
- The recession will be exactly like the last recession
I'm not claiming those companies would be bad purchases individually, but retail is already pressured even in this "strong" market, people's tastes change, the company is being led by idiots, who knows. Stuff changes in 10 years.
And then a big reason why I've stopped fiddling so much with my portfolio:
- I don't know the SWR of my portfolio after personal investing decisions