Author Topic: "The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"  (Read 1708 times)

FIRE47

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"The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"
« on: July 31, 2019, 01:59:57 PM »
Fed cuts rates as expected - markets crash....

seattlecyclone

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Re: "The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"
« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2019, 02:18:44 PM »
I'd hardly call a 1% daily drop in the S&P 500 a "crash."

FIRE47

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Re: "The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"
« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2019, 02:37:27 PM »
in the span of 5 minutes its noteworthy - regardless not really what I was getting at, more the reaction of the markets is always amusing.

degrom7

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Re: "The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"
« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2019, 03:13:18 PM »
Lock in a mortgage rate or wait a few days/weeks?


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habanero

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Re: "The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"
« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2019, 03:25:15 PM »
Lock in a mortgage rate or wait a few days/weeks?


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Long-term interest rates (as in treasury yields) barely moved on the decision. Like up 0.02% or so.

Maenad

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Re: "The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"
« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2019, 04:22:51 PM »
It's the why - they cut them because the trade war with China is affecting the economy. That's why the market crashed.

BTDretire

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Re: "The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"
« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2019, 09:49:06 AM »
It's the why - they cut them because the trade war with China is affecting the economy. That's why the market crashed.

 Looks like it uncrashed today! Everything is all better. :-)

Maenad

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Re: "The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"
« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2019, 10:16:29 AM »
Always emotion is the market. :-D

Tyler durden

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Re: "The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"
« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2019, 10:38:19 AM »
Very disappointing manufacturing and growth numbers out of the eurozone/ japan and China recently. Add in a no deal Brexit and maybe the FED doesn’t think the US economy is as insulated as it use to be.

US consumer is in great shape with high wage growth yoy- time to focus on stocks that have majority revenue from within the US ?

solon

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Re: "The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"
« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2019, 10:48:27 AM »
It's the why - they cut them because the trade war with China is affecting the economy. That's why the market crashed.

 Looks like it uncrashed today! Everything is all better. :-)

The market giveth and the market taketh away.

EvenSteven

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Re: "The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"
« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2019, 02:44:43 PM »
It's the why - they cut them because the trade war with China is affecting the economy. That's why the market crashed.

 Looks like it uncrashed today! Everything is all better. :-)

The market giveth and the market taketh away.

Well that was quick. New trade tariffs (well, a tweet at least) on 300B of Chinese goods drops the market from +1% to -1%. It's like I can't predict what the market is gonna do hour to hour or day to day!

BTDretire

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Re: "The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"
« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2019, 04:46:03 PM »
It's the why - they cut them because the trade war with China is affecting the economy. That's why the market crashed.

 Looks like it uncrashed today! Everything is all better. :-)

The market giveth and the market taketh away.

 Well I was right while for little while. :-)

 Longing for the good old days, April 2010 to Sept 2018.
 What a run.
VTSAX had 11% compounded.




soccerluvof4

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Re: "The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"
« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2019, 02:46:23 AM »
Like i mentioned on another thread , the tariff talks with China along with some other disappointing news just gave way to sell off but two days down? it looks worse than it is because the market is so high but I maybe am to optimistic but see eventually at least till we get deeper into the elections the market fighting its way right back up for the upteenth time.

habanero

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Re: "The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"
« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2019, 02:58:11 AM »
It looks worse than it is because the market is so high

Does it? To me it looks like a ~ 2.7% selloff since the Fed meeting. That's completely unrelated to the actual level of the S&P 500. The movement lowe in interest rates has been much bigger, but that as well wasn't really triggered by the Fed but started with the tweet from yesterday. 30y rates are now down ~20 bps in less than 24h. That's a massive move.

bbates728

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Re: "The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"
« Reply #14 on: August 02, 2019, 10:41:54 AM »
It looks worse than it is because the market is so high

Does it? To me it looks like a ~ 2.7% selloff since the Fed meeting. That's completely unrelated to the actual level of the S&P 500. The movement lowe in interest rates has been much bigger, but that as well wasn't really triggered by the Fed but started with the tweet from yesterday. 30y rates are now down ~20 bps in less than 24h. That's a massive move.

Can I put you on record that the top is in?

SwitchActiveDWG

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Re: "The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"
« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2019, 10:46:46 AM »
It looks worse than it is because the market is so high

Does it? To me it looks like a ~ 2.7% selloff since the Fed meeting. That's completely unrelated to the actual level of the S&P 500. The movement lowe in interest rates has been much bigger, but that as well wasn't really triggered by the Fed but started with the tweet from yesterday. 30y rates are now down ~20 bps in less than 24h. That's a massive move.

Can I put you on record that the top is in?

Top is definitely in. Sell everything and never look back.

dandarc

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Re: "The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"
« Reply #16 on: August 02, 2019, 10:47:39 AM »
It looks worse than it is because the market is so high

Does it? To me it looks like a ~ 2.7% selloff since the Fed meeting. That's completely unrelated to the actual level of the S&P 500. The movement lowe in interest rates has been much bigger, but that as well wasn't really triggered by the Fed but started with the tweet from yesterday. 30y rates are now down ~20 bps in less than 24h. That's a massive move.

Can I put you on record that the top is in?

Top is definitely in. Sell everything and never look back.
Even Thorstach says so - it must be true!

habanero

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Re: "The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"
« Reply #17 on: August 02, 2019, 10:55:09 AM »
It looks worse than it is because the market is so high

Does it? To me it looks like a ~ 2.7% selloff since the Fed meeting. That's completely unrelated to the actual level of the S&P 500. The movement lowe in interest rates has been much bigger, but that as well wasn't really triggered by the Fed but started with the tweet from yesterday. 30y rates are now down ~20 bps in less than 24h. That's a massive move.

Can I put you on record that the top is in?

No I just said that 2.7% selloff is 2.7% selloff regardles of the level it happens from. I dont think it looks better or worse then the same %-point drop at any market level.

habanero

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Re: "The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter point"
« Reply #18 on: August 02, 2019, 10:57:55 AM »

Can I put you on record that the top is in?

No. I have no idea or opinion if that was the top or not.  I just said that 2.7% selloff is 2.7% selloff regardless of the level it happens from. I dont think it looks better or worse then the same %-point drop at any market level.

And the second point was that the real action was in rates (bond) markets, not in Equities. S&P 500 up or down a couple of percent in a day happens every now and then. A 20 bps decrease (or increase) in 30y rates doesn't. That's very, very rare.

For the record, I did buy equities today per my plan to do so (i.e. buy what's left of my monthly paycheck after the end of the month). Was gonna happen yesterday but I put in the order a bit late so it got executed the next day. Aka today Which was lucky timing but is of course utterly irrelevant in the long run.

« Last Edit: August 02, 2019, 11:02:58 AM by habaneroNorway »