Author Topic: Is the millionaire next door dying  (Read 9267 times)

SeattleCPA

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Is the millionaire next door dying
« on: February 05, 2023, 08:57:22 AM »
A big part of the reason why I hang out here is the MMMers really aren't as dogmatic as, say, the Bogleheads. Don't get me wrong. I really like some of the people at Bogleheads. Taylor Larimore for one. And the basic message is sound (use passive investing).

But gosh they are cultish about some stuff.

In this thread for example, https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=396916&newpost=7102697, a reader asks if small business ownership is still a path to wealth. The discussion starts strong but ends quickly. Because one of the moderators says the thread isn't actionable.

First, it is actionable. The actionable insight? Some career tracks provide a better return on investment than others. That even helps people better execute a Bogleheads investment strategy BTW... Or a MMM strategy.

Second, had the Bogleheads mods allowed the discussion to continue, maybe someone at some point would have pointed to some of the recent research that validates the millionaire next door theory. Like this:

https://www.nber.org/papers/w25442

No forum is perfect. But allowing for different investment strategies (real estate... or equity index funds... or small business ownership) is surely a strength of the MMM forums. Thank you MMM and thank you MMMers.

nouseforausername

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2023, 09:30:58 AM »
It's nice having a freer discourse here, but their mod policies over there are clearly delineated: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=112988

It's the curse of an open forum to devolve into wumao, grift, and shouts, despite the original intent. Here, there's a critical mass of solid content to keep things informative, but still spicy. Over there, it's straight-up personalized financial talk or you're closed down.

I've read this forum an embrassingly long time (2013) for such a brief posting history, and I've valued the hands off mod approach. So, not criticizing this forum.

GilesMM

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2023, 01:20:46 PM »
It is not actionable because it was just posed as an observation about society for discussion and debate. If the OP (was it you?) had asked for advice along the lines of  “should I start a small business or work in tech?” It would have been fine.


I like the BH moderation as it keeps things focused.

Psychstache

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2023, 04:25:16 PM »
I think the BH moderation is far too heavy handed on squelching topics and the community is weirdly prudish about cursing. I occasionally learn some interesting stuff, but I check the forum rarely and don't engage at all. Still, it is working for plenty of others and I like the vibe here, so to each their own.

SeattleCPA

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2023, 06:55:58 AM »
It is not actionable because it was just posed as an observation about society for discussion and debate. If the OP (was it you?) had asked for advice along the lines of  “should I start a small business or work in tech?” It would have been fine.


I like the BH moderation as it keeps things focused.

I don't participate in Bogleheads. Haven't for a long time. When I did, I used SeattleCPA as my name.

BTW I disagree about the lack of actionability. Small business ownership should be discuss-able as an element in someone's retirement plan. It is, as I've noted many times before, the most common way for someone to become wealthy.

Quote from: nouseforausername
It's nice having a freer discourse here, but their mod policies over there are clearly delineated: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=112988

I have read the forum rules before. But reread them just now. And I still think the moderation is pretty arbitrary.

Maybe the author needed to preface his remarks with, "I'm thinking about leaving a regular job and starting my own business. I believe that would let me ultimately earn more thus save and over a longer time interval and thus increase the amount I accumulate in my retirement nest egg... It would also allow me to include an alternative asset investment in my portfolio... one with a low correlation to the traditional asset classes Bogleheads commonly use... etc"

But having to justify a discussion in this sort of way... Yikes.

And one final comment: I'm glad we can at this forum have this discussion. Sorry to repeat a cliche, but the scissor blades sharpen each other.

« Last Edit: February 06, 2023, 07:10:42 AM by SeattleCPA »

Mustache ride

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2023, 07:46:35 AM »
I think each forum has it's place, and I use both. I can appreciate the differences in philosophy and usually bounce back and forth so I can keep an open mind and get different perspectives. I happen to fall in between the stereotypical MMM/Boglehead, which is probably why I feel the way I do.

nereo

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2023, 08:04:06 AM »
There's a great deal of excellent information over at Bogleheads, but I've found the extremely heavy-handed approach towards forum moderation to limit real discussion, which has led to a pretty narrow view on life and personal finances.

I agree the moderation there is very arbitrary.  Basically I can summarize it as "the moderators will frequently shut down any discussion which might become acrimonious preemptively."  The result is a rather sterile environment which runs away from critical discussions. I've learned far more about divergent opinions here at MMM, and have routinely had my assumptions challenged (and several times changed)  I just don't see that happen very frequently over at BH.


SeattleCPA

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #7 on: February 08, 2023, 10:58:06 AM »
There's a great deal of excellent information over at Bogleheads, but I've found the extremely heavy-handed approach towards forum moderation to limit real discussion, which has led to a pretty narrow view on life and personal finances.

I agree the moderation there is very arbitrary.  Basically I can summarize it as "the moderators will frequently shut down any discussion which might become acrimonious preemptively."  The result is a rather sterile environment which runs away from critical discussions. I've learned far more about divergent opinions here at MMM, and have routinely had my assumptions challenged (and several times changed)  I just don't see that happen very frequently over at BH.

+1


Captain Cactus

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #8 on: February 22, 2023, 09:04:49 AM »
So.... Is the millionaire next door dying?


dividendman

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #9 on: February 22, 2023, 09:40:40 AM »
So.... Is the millionaire next door dying?

If you live next to me it ain't :P

DadJokes

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #10 on: February 22, 2023, 10:23:08 AM »
Had OP phrased the post differently, it may have met the forum guidelines.

Instead of "Is the millionaire next door dying," OP could have asked, "Is the millionaire next door still a viable path to wealth? How so?" And the wall of text after the title would need to be one of inquisitiveness, rather than some post-mortem that ends like a LinkedIn post with "agree or disagree."

The second option opens the discussion up to actionable advice, while the first just has people debating whether or not small business owners can still build wealth.



And no, the millionaire next door isn't dying. Just like people focused on flashy job titles (doctor, lawyer, etc.) 25 years ago, they focus on flashy job titles (SWE) today. All the while, a blue-collar business owner can accumulate wealth without needing to appear wealthy with fancy cars and expensive clothes just the same.

Captain Cactus

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #11 on: February 22, 2023, 01:50:25 PM »
Now that we've saved and invested and have reached a substantial, barely 7-figure NW (more than some, less than many on here), I often think about a move to business ownership.  But in the end I lack the guts to voluntarily remove/disrupt my family's health insurance (my son has a chronic illness) and walk away from a pretty good salary (again, more than some, less than the SWEs...) unless I'm forced out by a layoff, or something like that.

The idea of building an adequate income stream from a few hours of work has always been very seductive. 

SeattleCPA

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #12 on: February 26, 2023, 07:35:53 AM »
@Captain Cactus You will find these sub-forums littered with messages where I am promoting the idea of small business ownership and entrepreneurship. So I am all for someone having their own business!

However, small business ownership and entrepreneurship in my experience and observation requires lots of learning and lots of attention by owner. So it's basically the opposite of passively investing in a index fund or a set of index funds.

Thus, I can't imagine how someone can do it part-time. (I think if I were to try and run a CPA firm part-time that I would soon see my profits slipping or my quality declining. Even though I have decades of experience doing running a CPA firm.)

Chris Pascale

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #13 on: March 18, 2023, 04:31:28 PM »
Downloaded the paper. Thanks for posting.

Never been on Bogleheads. I can see them just being all about VTSAX and how Jack Bogle is super, but can't see anyone having much to say after that.

Telecaster

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #14 on: March 18, 2023, 06:20:33 PM »
There are a lot of really smart, very knowledgeable people at Bogleheads.   But they are very dogmatic.  A $5 million portfolio and a 3% SWR is a barebones retirement to them. 

@SeattleCPA's comments about buying a small business have been very eye opening for me.   Stocks  typically trade at 15-20 times earnings (or more).  A small business might sell for 2-3 times earnings.  Of course, you are buying a job too, so there's that.    But I think buying a small business is a pathway to FI that should be discussed more often.   Selling a small business is something else that might need more examination as well. 

SeattleCPA

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #15 on: March 20, 2023, 07:27:39 AM »
There are a lot of really smart, very knowledgeable people at Bogleheads.   But they are very dogmatic.  A $5 million portfolio and a 3% SWR is a barebones retirement to them. 

@SeattleCPA's comments about buying a small business have been very eye opening for me.   Stocks  typically trade at 15-20 times earnings (or more).  A small business might sell for 2-3 times earnings.  Of course, you are buying a job too, so there's that.    But I think buying a small business is a pathway to FI that should be discussed more often.   Selling a small business is something else that might need more examination as well.

:-)

ender

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #16 on: March 20, 2023, 08:13:12 AM »
That post was basically an inflammatory change my mind post.

Feels pretty clear to me why Bogleheads would have locked it.

Captain Cactus

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #17 on: March 28, 2023, 02:06:26 PM »
There are a lot of really smart, very knowledgeable people at Bogleheads.   But they are very dogmatic.  A $5 million portfolio and a 3% SWR is a barebones retirement to them. 

@SeattleCPA's comments about buying a small business have been very eye opening for me.   Stocks  typically trade at 15-20 times earnings (or more).  A small business might sell for 2-3 times earnings.  Of course, you are buying a job too, so there's that.    But I think buying a small business is a pathway to FI that should be discussed more often.   Selling a small business is something else that might need more examination as well.

:-)

How do people find businesses to buy? 

SeattleCPA

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2023, 03:50:11 PM »
There are a lot of really smart, very knowledgeable people at Bogleheads.   But they are very dogmatic.  A $5 million portfolio and a 3% SWR is a barebones retirement to them. 

@SeattleCPA's comments about buying a small business have been very eye opening for me.   Stocks  typically trade at 15-20 times earnings (or more).  A small business might sell for 2-3 times earnings.  Of course, you are buying a job too, so there's that.    But I think buying a small business is a pathway to FI that should be discussed more often.   Selling a small business is something else that might need more examination as well.

:-)

How do people find businesses to buy?

For starters I'd poke around bizbuysell.com. And then these two cautions: I'd be cynical about the cash flow projections and treat the list prices as only the starting point for any negotiations or discussions.

Archipelago

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #19 on: April 02, 2023, 04:07:33 PM »
Quote
a reader asks if small business ownership is still a path to wealth. The discussion starts strong but ends quickly. Because one of the moderators says the thread isn't actionable.

LOL @ not actionable. Starting a local service business is more actionable than going through 4 years of college, pulling 6 figures of student loans, and getting a decent paying job in anything that's not STEM related.

Now is a great time as any other to build a business. And it's never too late.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2023, 04:11:34 PM by Archipelago »

Archipelago

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #20 on: April 02, 2023, 04:09:43 PM »
There are a lot of really smart, very knowledgeable people at Bogleheads.   But they are very dogmatic.  A $5 million portfolio and a 3% SWR is a barebones retirement to them. 

@SeattleCPA's comments about buying a small business have been very eye opening for me.   Stocks  typically trade at 15-20 times earnings (or more).  A small business might sell for 2-3 times earnings.  Of course, you are buying a job too, so there's that.    But I think buying a small business is a pathway to FI that should be discussed more often.   Selling a small business is something else that might need more examination as well.

:-)

How do people find businesses to buy?

Recommended reading: Buy Then Build by Walker Deibel. There's also a BTB community group of Facebook. Also check out some of @Michael in ABQ 's threads on the subject.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #21 on: April 02, 2023, 07:41:51 PM »
There are a lot of really smart, very knowledgeable people at Bogleheads.   But they are very dogmatic.  A $5 million portfolio and a 3% SWR is a barebones retirement to them. 

@SeattleCPA's comments about buying a small business have been very eye opening for me.   Stocks  typically trade at 15-20 times earnings (or more).  A small business might sell for 2-3 times earnings.  Of course, you are buying a job too, so there's that.    But I think buying a small business is a pathway to FI that should be discussed more often.   Selling a small business is something else that might need more examination as well.

:-)

How do people find businesses to buy?

There are lots of business broker out there. Some are good, some are terrible. You may have to look through hundreds of businesses listed for sale to find one that's right for you.

BizBuySell.com is probably the largest marketplace. But a lot of the listings (most of them) are garbage. Either the owner/broker is totally unrealistic about the value of the business, or it's just a terrible business with a lot of structural problems.


I knew I wanted to buy an ecommerce business. The broker I purchased from is well-regarded in the industry and I signed up for their email list. After about a year I saw a business come into my inbox that met a lot of my requirements. https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/entrepreneurship/buying-an-ecommerce-business-our-journey/

Almost two years later and it's going well. Revenue is growing year-over-year (profit is as well, albeit at a slower pace). We're paying down the SBA loan/seller financing and building equity. In a few years as we continue to grow, I can take a larger share of profits from the business or consider selling. Even at the same multiple (3-3.5x) If I've doubled the profit from the business, I'll have doubled the value.

At this point, I can't imagine going back to work for someone else. But I've also been an entrepreneur my whole life. I was the kid who bought $100 worth of candy before summer camp to sell it at a 3-4x markup to other kids (still undercutting the camp store).

SeattleCPA

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #22 on: April 04, 2023, 06:53:24 AM »
There are lots of business broker out there. Some are good, some are terrible. You may have to look through hundreds of businesses listed for sale to find one that's right for you.

BizBuySell.com is probably the largest marketplace. But a lot of the listings (most of them) are garbage. Either the owner/broker is totally unrealistic about the value of the business, or it's just a terrible business with a lot of structural problems.


I knew I wanted to buy an ecommerce business. The broker I purchased from is well-regarded in the industry and I signed up for their email list. After about a year I saw a business come into my inbox that met a lot of my requirements. https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/entrepreneurship/buying-an-ecommerce-business-our-journey/

Almost two years later and it's going well. Revenue is growing year-over-year (profit is as well, albeit at a slower pace). We're paying down the SBA loan/seller financing and building equity. In a few years as we continue to grow, I can take a larger share of profits from the business or consider selling. Even at the same multiple (3-3.5x) If I've doubled the profit from the business, I'll have doubled the value.

At this point, I can't imagine going back to work for someone else. But I've also been an entrepreneur my whole life. I was the kid who bought $100 worth of candy before summer camp to sell it at a 3-4x markup to other kids (still undercutting the camp store).

Lots of wisdom baked into the above comments. And I'd like to call out something that I see written between the lines. (Everything I boldfaced connects to this point...)

Entrepreneurship isn't like investing. I truly think you or I can do a great job investing with almost zero knowledge and experience. And basically without spending more than a few minutes of time. E.g., I've argued you can use a target retirement fund and then forget about it. And almost any of the common asset allocation formulas work well.

Entrepreneurship works differently. The more you learn, the more you earn.

What I see is--with the exception of tech-based opportunities which work differently--small business owners and entrepreneurs often just make more and more as they get better and better. They also get better and better at their "jobs" which means often those "jobs" look way different than a typical employee's job. Better work-life balance for one. Often more interesting work. More control.

Archipelago

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #23 on: April 06, 2023, 11:36:02 AM »
There are lots of business broker out there. Some are good, some are terrible. You may have to look through hundreds of businesses listed for sale to find one that's right for you.

BizBuySell.com is probably the largest marketplace. But a lot of the listings (most of them) are garbage. Either the owner/broker is totally unrealistic about the value of the business, or it's just a terrible business with a lot of structural problems.


I knew I wanted to buy an ecommerce business. The broker I purchased from is well-regarded in the industry and I signed up for their email list. After about a year I saw a business come into my inbox that met a lot of my requirements. https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/entrepreneurship/buying-an-ecommerce-business-our-journey/

Almost two years later and it's going well. Revenue is growing year-over-year (profit is as well, albeit at a slower pace). We're paying down the SBA loan/seller financing and building equity. In a few years as we continue to grow, I can take a larger share of profits from the business or consider selling. Even at the same multiple (3-3.5x) If I've doubled the profit from the business, I'll have doubled the value.

At this point, I can't imagine going back to work for someone else. But I've also been an entrepreneur my whole life. I was the kid who bought $100 worth of candy before summer camp to sell it at a 3-4x markup to other kids (still undercutting the camp store).

Lots of wisdom baked into the above comments. And I'd like to call out something that I see written between the lines. (Everything I boldfaced connects to this point...)

Entrepreneurship isn't like investing. I truly think you or I can do a great job investing with almost zero knowledge and experience. And basically without spending more than a few minutes of time. E.g., I've argued you can use a target retirement fund and then forget about it. And almost any of the common asset allocation formulas work well.

Entrepreneurship works differently. The more you learn, the more you earn.

What I see is--with the exception of tech-based opportunities which work differently--small business owners and entrepreneurs often just make more and more as they get better and better. They also get better and better at their "jobs" which means often those "jobs" look way different than a typical employee's job. Better work-life balance for one. Often more interesting work. More control.

Yes this very much, and it should also be noted that the learning aspect is often a requirement. As a business owner you're put into a position where often times you're forced to learn as the business and times change!

roomtempmayo

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #24 on: April 07, 2023, 09:42:18 AM »
There are a lot of really smart, very knowledgeable people at Bogleheads.   But they are very dogmatic.  A $5 million portfolio and a 3% SWR is a barebones retirement to them. 

@SeattleCPA's comments about buying a small business have been very eye opening for me.   Stocks  typically trade at 15-20 times earnings (or more).  A small business might sell for 2-3 times earnings.  Of course, you are buying a job too, so there's that.    But I think buying a small business is a pathway to FI that should be discussed more often.   Selling a small business is something else that might need more examination as well.

:-)

Quickly scanning through the paper, isn't the argument that small businesses really don't transfer ownership well, or work on a passive model?

From the abstract:

Quote
Pass-through profit falls by three-quarters after owner retirement or premature death.

I might be misreading it, but my quick gloss is that small business success is really about the owner's skill/work/personality/hustle rather than the abstract business entity.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2023, 09:45:23 AM by caleb »

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #25 on: April 07, 2023, 10:48:29 AM »
There are a lot of really smart, very knowledgeable people at Bogleheads.   But they are very dogmatic.  A $5 million portfolio and a 3% SWR is a barebones retirement to them. 

@SeattleCPA's comments about buying a small business have been very eye opening for me.   Stocks  typically trade at 15-20 times earnings (or more).  A small business might sell for 2-3 times earnings.  Of course, you are buying a job too, so there's that.    But I think buying a small business is a pathway to FI that should be discussed more often.   Selling a small business is something else that might need more examination as well.

:-)

Quickly scanning through the paper, isn't the argument that small businesses really don't transfer ownership well, or work on a passive model?

From the abstract:

Quote
Pass-through profit falls by three-quarters after owner retirement or premature death.

I might be misreading it, but my quick gloss is that small business success is really about the owner's skill/work/personality/hustle rather than the abstract business entity.

A lot of small businesses aren't transferrable. Sometimes that's just inherent in the business model (i.e. professional services) but sometimes it's just the owner failed to create a transferrable business and instead just had a job with helpers.

Passive business ownership requires a certain scale because you have to be able to hire a full-time manager/CEO to run the business while still having enough profit left over for you as the owner. If you had a business making $500k in revenue hiring a full-time manager at $100k may represent all your profits.

A lot of businesses get listed for sale but many of them never end up selling. Ultimately the owner may just wind it down and get little or nothing for it. They could have potentially sold it for a multiple of annual profit (typically 2.5x - 5x depending on the business) plus potentially getting out all the cash they have tied up in inventory, equipment, real estate, etc. Some owners are unrealistic about the value of their business, or the business they created would fall apart if they left because they still have their hands in everything.

SeattleCPA

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #26 on: April 08, 2023, 08:09:23 AM »
There are a lot of really smart, very knowledgeable people at Bogleheads.   But they are very dogmatic.  A $5 million portfolio and a 3% SWR is a barebones retirement to them. 

@SeattleCPA's comments about buying a small business have been very eye opening for me.   Stocks  typically trade at 15-20 times earnings (or more).  A small business might sell for 2-3 times earnings.  Of course, you are buying a job too, so there's that.    But I think buying a small business is a pathway to FI that should be discussed more often.   Selling a small business is something else that might need more examination as well.

:-)

Quickly scanning through the paper, isn't the argument that small businesses really don't transfer ownership well, or work on a passive model?

From the abstract:

Quote
Pass-through profit falls by three-quarters after owner retirement or premature death.

I might be misreading it, but my quick gloss is that small business success is really about the owner's skill/work/personality/hustle rather than the abstract business entity.

So I don't think you're misreading it. But I think (in a sense) we're talking about whether the glass is half empty or half full.

E.g. if you start and operate a small business where you earn an extra $300K for the last five or ten years you work, that's a pretty good deal. So maybe your total income is $600K to make math easy...

If in year after retirement, your income drops from $600K to $150K, that is a 75% drop. But $150K is $150K.

SeattleCPA

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #27 on: April 08, 2023, 08:11:03 AM »
There are a lot of really smart, very knowledgeable people at Bogleheads.   But they are very dogmatic.  A $5 million portfolio and a 3% SWR is a barebones retirement to them. 

@SeattleCPA's comments about buying a small business have been very eye opening for me.   Stocks  typically trade at 15-20 times earnings (or more).  A small business might sell for 2-3 times earnings.  Of course, you are buying a job too, so there's that.    But I think buying a small business is a pathway to FI that should be discussed more often.   Selling a small business is something else that might need more examination as well.

:-)

Quickly scanning through the paper, isn't the argument that small businesses really don't transfer ownership well, or work on a passive model?

From the abstract:

Quote
Pass-through profit falls by three-quarters after owner retirement or premature death.

I might be misreading it, but my quick gloss is that small business success is really about the owner's skill/work/personality/hustle rather than the abstract business entity.

A lot of small businesses aren't transferrable. Sometimes that's just inherent in the business model (i.e. professional services) but sometimes it's just the owner failed to create a transferrable business and instead just had a job with helpers.

Passive business ownership requires a certain scale because you have to be able to hire a full-time manager/CEO to run the business while still having enough profit left over for you as the owner. If you had a business making $500k in revenue hiring a full-time manager at $100k may represent all your profits.

A lot of businesses get listed for sale but many of them never end up selling. Ultimately the owner may just wind it down and get little or nothing for it. They could have potentially sold it for a multiple of annual profit (typically 2.5x - 5x depending on the business) plus potentially getting out all the cash they have tied up in inventory, equipment, real estate, etc. Some owners are unrealistic about the value of their business, or the business they created would fall apart if they left because they still have their hands in everything.

Agreed.

SeattleCPA

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #28 on: April 08, 2023, 08:12:02 AM »
There are lots of business broker out there. Some are good, some are terrible. You may have to look through hundreds of businesses listed for sale to find one that's right for you.

BizBuySell.com is probably the largest marketplace. But a lot of the listings (most of them) are garbage. Either the owner/broker is totally unrealistic about the value of the business, or it's just a terrible business with a lot of structural problems.


I knew I wanted to buy an ecommerce business. The broker I purchased from is well-regarded in the industry and I signed up for their email list. After about a year I saw a business come into my inbox that met a lot of my requirements. https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/entrepreneurship/buying-an-ecommerce-business-our-journey/

Almost two years later and it's going well. Revenue is growing year-over-year (profit is as well, albeit at a slower pace). We're paying down the SBA loan/seller financing and building equity. In a few years as we continue to grow, I can take a larger share of profits from the business or consider selling. Even at the same multiple (3-3.5x) If I've doubled the profit from the business, I'll have doubled the value.

At this point, I can't imagine going back to work for someone else. But I've also been an entrepreneur my whole life. I was the kid who bought $100 worth of candy before summer camp to sell it at a 3-4x markup to other kids (still undercutting the camp store).

Lots of wisdom baked into the above comments. And I'd like to call out something that I see written between the lines. (Everything I boldfaced connects to this point...)

Entrepreneurship isn't like investing. I truly think you or I can do a great job investing with almost zero knowledge and experience. And basically without spending more than a few minutes of time. E.g., I've argued you can use a target retirement fund and then forget about it. And almost any of the common asset allocation formulas work well.

Entrepreneurship works differently. The more you learn, the more you earn.

What I see is--with the exception of tech-based opportunities which work differently--small business owners and entrepreneurs often just make more and more as they get better and better. They also get better and better at their "jobs" which means often those "jobs" look way different than a typical employee's job. Better work-life balance for one. Often more interesting work. More control.

Yes this very much, and it should also be noted that the learning aspect is often a requirement. As a business owner you're put into a position where often times you're forced to learn as the business and times change!

+1. Thank for pointing this out @Archipelago .

BicycleB

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #29 on: April 27, 2023, 10:37:43 AM »
Interesting & educational thread. PTF.

FIREin2018

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #30 on: May 22, 2023, 04:51:33 PM »
A big part of the reason why I hang out here is the MMMers really aren't as dogmatic as, say, the Bogleheads. Don't get me wrong. I really like some of the people at Bogleheads. Taylor Larimore for one. And the basic message is sound (use passive investing).
Taylor Larimore is still alive at age 99?!?
I interacted with him a few times when he was on Morningstar's forums decades ago.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2023, 04:53:22 PM by FIREin2018 »

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #31 on: May 22, 2023, 07:32:58 PM »
How does one run a forum where the conclusion of any allowed topic is always to index in Vanguard funds AND in addition to that narrow restriction every post has to be something actionable?

Is this how you do it?

"I was thinking about what to do with this week's $10,000 paycheck. Should I invest it in VTSAX?"
"Yes, you should invest it in VTSAX."
"Thank you."

"I am 90% VTI and 10% BND, but was thinking about going 80% VTI and 20% BND. I am concerned about the extra 0.02% expense ratio I'd be paying on that extra 10% of my AA. Do it or not?"
[long discussion about applicability of statistical history of asset allocation in this decade's market conditions]
"I think I'll leave it as it is. Thanks."


SeattleCPA

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #32 on: May 23, 2023, 03:23:07 PM »
How does one run a forum where the conclusion of any allowed topic is always to index in Vanguard funds AND in addition to that narrow restriction every post has to be something actionable?

Is this how you do it?

"I was thinking about what to do with this week's $10,000 paycheck. Should I invest it in VTSAX?"
"Yes, you should invest it in VTSAX."
"Thank you."

"I am 90% VTI and 10% BND, but was thinking about going 80% VTI and 20% BND. I am concerned about the extra 0.02% expense ratio I'd be paying on that extra 10% of my AA. Do it or not?"
[long discussion about applicability of statistical history of asset allocation in this decade's market conditions]
"I think I'll leave it as it is. Thanks."

@ChpBstrd I love it. Great answer. :-)

SeattleCPA

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #33 on: May 23, 2023, 03:26:50 PM »
A big part of the reason why I hang out here is the MMMers really aren't as dogmatic as, say, the Bogleheads. Don't get me wrong. I really like some of the people at Bogleheads. Taylor Larimore for one. And the basic message is sound (use passive investing).
Taylor Larimore is still alive at age 99?!?
I interacted with him a few times when he was on Morningstar's forums decades ago.

Taylor is great. And he's still doing his part to help people invest wisely and build a nestegg.

jinga nation

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #34 on: May 24, 2023, 09:48:23 AM »
I know plenty of "millionaire's next door" who became that thru owning their small biz. And also some on their way there, some making it their 2nd career after years of corporate life.

The common thread from conversations with these folks is: Live below your means, invest in your skills, keep up with technology/industry.

I used to be a BH/MorningStar Diehards forum member. I remember @SeattleCPA from BH. But I got one too many warnings for saying Facepunch and the F-word. Taylor Larrimore and the OG Diehards are/were awesome. The recommended reading list and IPS is excellent. The forums, well, they can suck a fat one.

Meanwhile someone's thread on buying a $5k watch went on for 30 pages in part 1 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=27707 and part 2 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=316440

Also, thank you @SeattleCPA and @Michael in ABQ and others on providing valuable posts; my wife is planning on ending her corporate career at some point, and may look at a small biz to purchase or start from scratch.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2023, 10:03:11 AM by jinga nation »

SeattleCPA

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #35 on: May 25, 2023, 02:20:27 PM »
I know plenty of "millionaire's next door" who became that thru owning their small biz. And also some on their way there, some making it their 2nd career after years of corporate life.

The common thread from conversations with these folks is: Live below your means, invest in your skills, keep up with technology/industry.

I used to be a BH/MorningStar Diehards forum member. I remember @SeattleCPA from BH. But I got one too many warnings for saying Facepunch and the F-word. Taylor Larrimore and the OG Diehards are/were awesome. The recommended reading list and IPS is excellent. The forums, well, they can suck a fat one.

Meanwhile someone's thread on buying a $5k watch went on for 30 pages in part 1 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=27707 and part 2 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=316440

Also, thank you @SeattleCPA and @Michael in ABQ and others on providing valuable posts; my wife is planning on ending her corporate career at some point, and may look at a small biz to purchase or start from scratch.

:-)

Fru-Gal

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #36 on: May 25, 2023, 02:36:28 PM »
PTF

KarefulKactus15

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #37 on: August 23, 2023, 12:17:34 PM »
I think the millionaire next door type is actually dying. And to be relevant in 2023, seems it would need to be the 10 millionaire next door.

I think as capitalism advances, the barrier to entry and good profits will become harder. Peoples labor will not have as much purchasing power to even start a small business while large corporations gobble up vast amounts of market share. Combine this with systems that harm small businesses (Think about software license for modern cars to squeeze mechanics, or apple not licensing small shops for repair) and i think it is and will die. In the end (not sure what timeline) - only those that fully own their vertical will survive successfully. Anyone who is tier 3 will get squeezed by the tier 1-2 suppliers.

Not to shit on the system but I think we are in late stage capitalism - and I say this as someone who has started 2 businesses with employees that I very much enjoy running and improving.

I think the idea of running a small business as a path to wealth is relevant for sure. But as capital gets funneled upwards and consolidated in a few hands, the people at the bottom will have not much money to spend at small business.

So I think the lifestyle of a small business owner with 10 employees running at a nice 15% profit margin will buy substantially less living status than that same person maybe 20-40 years ago.

But fuck do I know - this is my opinion only.  I still think owning your labor and even profiting off the labor of others is one of the fastest ways to build up capital that can be invested. Its a challenge to grow capital on your labor alone.

SeattleCPA

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #38 on: August 24, 2023, 09:24:07 AM »
I think the millionaire next door type is actually dying. And to be relevant in 2023, seems it would need to be the 10 millionaire next door.

I think as capitalism advances, the barrier to entry and good profits will become harder. Peoples labor will not have as much purchasing power to even start a small business while large corporations gobble up vast amounts of market share. Combine this with systems that harm small businesses (Think about software license for modern cars to squeeze mechanics, or apple not licensing small shops for repair) and i think it is and will die. In the end (not sure what timeline) - only those that fully own their vertical will survive successfully. Anyone who is tier 3 will get squeezed by the tier 1-2 suppliers.

Not to shit on the system but I think we are in late stage capitalism - and I say this as someone who has started 2 businesses with employees that I very much enjoy running and improving.

I think the idea of running a small business as a path to wealth is relevant for sure. But as capital gets funneled upwards and consolidated in a few hands, the people at the bottom will have not much money to spend at small business.

So I think the lifestyle of a small business owner with 10 employees running at a nice 15% profit margin will buy substantially less living status than that same person maybe 20-40 years ago.

But fuck do I know - this is my opinion only.  I still think owning your labor and even profiting off the labor of others is one of the fastest ways to build up capital that can be invested. Its a challenge to grow capital on your labor alone.

To first disclose my bias, I am super protective of and defensive about small business entrepreneurs. That's a far stronger "political" or "philosophical" principle for me than voting "red" or "blue". I also think a free market economy does the best job of allocating resources and growing incomes, reducing poverty, and supporting democracies.

All that said, something does seem wrong to me. Or changing. And the Economist has been pointing to the data and discussing in recent months.

There is for example a far heavier regulatory burden which basically doesn't matter to giant firms but beats the crap out of small firms. This observation and example: It's about the same amount of work and expense for a $1M firm to comply with multi-state taxes as it is for $100M firm... except that cost and burden will probably kill the smaller firm or force it to not comply.

Big firms especially the tech companies do orchestrate and then exploit network effects to create monopolies which just beat up on small firms. And so I think shouldn't be legal or allowed. (BTW the most recent issue of Economist points to change that VC funded firms now much less likely to ever go public... they're more likely now to be acquired. Which is okay for founders but...)

All that said, I don't know that this eliminates the opportunities of small business entrepreneurship anymore than it does for some other group. While fewer new businesses are getting formed, I still think or see that "small" private companies have lots of opportunity.

In my small business category, for example, the small CPA firms are now going great with the extra complexity and compliance burden of new taxes feds and states have levied. Staff make more. Owners are growing their profits. The losers in this case? The consumers and new businesses who can't afford the services that now cost maybe 50% or 100% more. And this is true in other categories I see and sign tax returns for.

I also think that something the FIRE crowd needs to be alert to here: If we get stagnation or stagflation? That could show up in rates of return. Which impacts both how quickly you grow your nest egg and then also the size of the nest egg you need to support a given level of income.


ChpBstrd

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #39 on: August 24, 2023, 09:42:27 AM »
I think the millionaire next door type is actually dying. And to be relevant in 2023, seems it would need to be the 10 millionaire next door.

I think as capitalism advances, the barrier to entry and good profits will become harder. Peoples labor will not have as much purchasing power to even start a small business while large corporations gobble up vast amounts of market share. Combine this with systems that harm small businesses (Think about software license for modern cars to squeeze mechanics, or apple not licensing small shops for repair) and i think it is and will die. In the end (not sure what timeline) - only those that fully own their vertical will survive successfully. Anyone who is tier 3 will get squeezed by the tier 1-2 suppliers.

Not to shit on the system but I think we are in late stage capitalism - and I say this as someone who has started 2 businesses with employees that I very much enjoy running and improving.

I think the idea of running a small business as a path to wealth is relevant for sure. But as capital gets funneled upwards and consolidated in a few hands, the people at the bottom will have not much money to spend at small business.

So I think the lifestyle of a small business owner with 10 employees running at a nice 15% profit margin will buy substantially less living status than that same person maybe 20-40 years ago.

But fuck do I know - this is my opinion only.  I still think owning your labor and even profiting off the labor of others is one of the fastest ways to build up capital that can be invested. Its a challenge to grow capital on your labor alone.

To first disclose my bias, I am super protective of and defensive about small business entrepreneurs. That's a far stronger "political" or "philosophical" principle for me than voting "red" or "blue". I also think a free market economy does the best job of allocating resources and growing incomes, reducing poverty, and supporting democracies.

All that said, something does seem wrong to me. Or changing. And the Economist has been pointing to the data and discussing in recent months.

There is for example a far heavier regulatory burden which basically doesn't matter to giant firms but beats the crap out of small firms. This observation and example: It's about the same amount of work and expense for a $1M firm to comply with multi-state taxes as it is for $100M firm... except that cost and burden will probably kill the smaller firm or force it to not comply.

Big firms especially the tech companies do orchestrate and then exploit network effects to create monopolies which just beat up on small firms. And so I think shouldn't be legal or allowed. (BTW the most recent issue of Economist points to change that VC funded firms now much less likely to ever go public... they're more likely now to be acquired. Which is okay for founders but...)

All that said, I don't know that this eliminates the opportunities of small business entrepreneurship anymore than it does for some other group. While fewer new businesses are getting formed, I still think or see that "small" private companies have lots of opportunity.

In my small business category, for example, the small CPA firms are now going great with the extra complexity and compliance burden of new taxes feds and states have levied. Staff make more. Owners are growing their profits. The losers in this case? The consumers and new businesses who can't afford the services that now cost maybe 50% or 100% more. And this is true in other categories I see and sign tax returns for.

I also think that something the FIRE crowd needs to be alert to here: If we get stagnation or stagflation? That could show up in rates of return. Which impacts both how quickly you grow your nest egg and then also the size of the nest egg you need to support a given level of income.
Let's not forget how the US system of employer-funded insurance adds a massive layer of complexity for any small business. And if you don't offer benefits, you can't recruit maybe 75% of the employees who won't work for you because they need subsidized group insurance. For large businesses, this is a moat offering protection from startups and so they tentatively support the system. Overall what society gets is fewer startups, less innovation, and a Byzantine healthcare payment system, with layer upon layer of bureaucracy.

joe189man

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #40 on: August 24, 2023, 10:19:08 AM »
PTF - great thread

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #41 on: August 24, 2023, 12:51:06 PM »
Let's not forget how the US system of employer-funded insurance adds a massive layer of complexity for any small business. And if you don't offer benefits, you can't recruit maybe 75% of the employees who won't work for you because they need subsidized group insurance. For large businesses, this is a moat offering protection from startups and so they tentatively support the system. Overall what society gets is fewer startups, less innovation, and a Byzantine healthcare payment system, with layer upon layer of bureaucracy.

As a small business owner I can't even think about offering health insurance for my single employee. I probably couldn't afford insurance for myself if I wasn't also serving in the National Guard with access to very good (and highly subsidized) insurance through the military. If I were to retire my premiums would go from less than $250/month for the whole family to over $1,000 - not to mention my monthly income from the Guard of roughly $1,500/month would also go away (no retirement pay from the Guard until I turn 60 - in about 20 more years).


I run an ecommerce business and until our annual revenue approaches 8 figures we're not going to collect and remit sales tax outside our state. The cost of compliance is potentially tens of thousands of dollars - especially in states like Colorado where there are literally thousands of sales tax jurisdictions and no way to file a single monthly/quarterly sales tax return for all of them.

Most states have a threshold of $100,000 of sales into that state before they require you to collect and remit sales tax, but some also have a threshold of just 200 sales. So we could have $10,000 of sales into a state and potentially be on the hook for hundreds or thousands of dollars of compliance costs to collect, remit, and report sales tax. Amazon and Walmart can easily handle dealing with 10,000 sales tax jurisdictions across the country - no small business can.

SeattleCPA

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #42 on: August 24, 2023, 12:56:35 PM »
Overall what society gets is fewer startups, less innovation, and a Byzantine healthcare payment system, with layer upon layer of bureaucracy.

Interesting study that supports at least the first two of @ChpBstrd 's assertions above:

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/57fa873e8419c230ca01eb5f/t/5cd4b2adeef1a1ea927999e5/1557443247932/AA_fin.pdf

farmecologist

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #43 on: August 24, 2023, 03:26:55 PM »
Isn't one of the ideas of "millionaires next door" that their neighbors don't know they are one?

This is exactly our situation.  We are frugal, live in a pretty modest home, drive modest vehicles...yet have we much more that 1M.

Point is...I think there are many more "millionaires next door" than people think, even now, and it is impossible to get a solid number of how many there actually are.

And no...I don't think most "millionaires next door" own a business...just frugal folks that save over a lifetime and live well below their means.

« Last Edit: August 24, 2023, 03:29:09 PM by farmecologist »

SeattleCPA

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #44 on: August 25, 2023, 11:04:08 AM »
Isn't one of the ideas of "millionaires next door" that their neighbors don't know they are one?

This is exactly our situation.  We are frugal, live in a pretty modest home, drive modest vehicles...yet have we much more that 1M.

Point is...I think there are many more "millionaires next door" than people think, even now, and it is impossible to get a solid number of how many there actually are.

And no...I don't think most "millionaires next door" own a business...just frugal folks that save over a lifetime and live well below their means.

We probably all read and focus on different parts of the Millionaire Next Door. I totally agree that a key part of this was people are don't look or act rich but actually are rich. Often because they spend more, er, conservatively.

But looking back at the book just now--just to check if my memory was wrong or right--I find these comments from Page 8 of an early edition:
20% retired roughly
About 2/3rds self-employed... 3/4ths of these self-employed people considering themselves entrepreneurs
Quoting the authors, "most of the others are self-employed professionals such as doctors and accountants."

farmecologist

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #45 on: August 25, 2023, 11:31:25 AM »
Isn't one of the ideas of "millionaires next door" that their neighbors don't know they are one?

This is exactly our situation.  We are frugal, live in a pretty modest home, drive modest vehicles...yet have we much more that 1M.

Point is...I think there are many more "millionaires next door" than people think, even now, and it is impossible to get a solid number of how many there actually are.

And no...I don't think most "millionaires next door" own a business...just frugal folks that save over a lifetime and live well below their means.

We probably all read and focus on different parts of the Millionaire Next Door. I totally agree that a key part of this was people are don't look or act rich but actually are rich. Often because they spend more, er, conservatively.

But looking back at the book just now--just to check if my memory was wrong or right--I find these comments from Page 8 of an early edition:
20% retired roughly
About 2/3rds self-employed... 3/4ths of these self-employed people considering themselves entrepreneurs
Quoting the authors, "most of the others are self-employed professionals such as doctors and accountants."

Honestly, I could care less what the book says...that was published in 1998.

Frankly, I think the FIRE movement, etc...has proved that quote wrong.

But to each their own.

SeattleCPA

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #46 on: August 25, 2023, 12:38:11 PM »
I don't think we're really communicating here @farmecologist . And it doesn't seem like you care. Which is fine.

But because other people read this thread, let me again point to something that talks about how the whole "millionaire next door" hypothesis looks two decades later based on some of the longitudinal studies that have appeared since first edition.

Here's my discussion with links embedded in discussion: https://evergreensmallbusiness.com/defending-millionaire-next-door-theory-what-stanleys-critics-got-wrong/

P.S. Scissor blades sharpen each other so I'm sure I'm not the only one here who welcomes your or other's rebuttals, links to empirical studies, etc.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #47 on: August 25, 2023, 02:06:11 PM »
Maybe it has become harder to become the millionaire next door, with a modest lifestyle compared to one's income.

Are the payments for the house you just bought <30% of your income?
Can you even buy a very basic car anymore (hand-crank windows, steel wheels, no infotainment)?
Can you buy stocks with a Schiller PE in the 20's?
Can you earn 7% in 10-year treasuries?
Can you work your way through college and graduate debt-free?
Can you consume the same number of hours per week of ads people in the early 90s consumed?

SeattleCPA

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #48 on: August 25, 2023, 03:58:01 PM »
Maybe it has become harder to become the millionaire next door, with a modest lifestyle compared to one's income.

Are the payments for the house you just bought <30% of your income?
Can you even buy a very basic car anymore (hand-crank windows, steel wheels, no infotainment)?
Can you buy stocks with a Schiller PE in the 20's?
Can you earn 7% in 10-year treasuries?
Can you work your way through college and graduate debt-free?
Can you consume the same number of hours per week of ads people in the early 90s consumed?

All really good questions... Real good questions.

KarefulKactus15

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Re: Is the millionaire next door dying
« Reply #49 on: August 26, 2023, 02:52:51 PM »
Maybe it has become harder to become the millionaire next door, with a modest lifestyle compared to one's income.

Are the payments for the house you just bought <30% of your income?
Can you even buy a very basic car anymore (hand-crank windows, steel wheels, no infotainment)?
Can you buy stocks with a Schiller PE in the 20's?
Can you earn 7% in 10-year treasuries?
Can you work your way through college and graduate debt-free?
Can you consume the same number of hours per week of ads people in the early 90s consumed?

The alarm bells should be ringing tbh.

This ends with everyone on the bottom and a very very few on top.

The middle class is not natural and rellay only popped up in the last 80 years or so.

Nature does not have a middle class.

I think the millionaire next door type with 2/3 self e.ployed requires a middle class.

It's not dead yet, but on its way.

I'm still hustling hard but when I look at my life from 2014 to now and even 2018 to now - it takes substantially more hustle to stay afloat and waaaay more effort to get ahead.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!