Success!
I ended up with
this model. It took me a while to figure out what to get: I first went to Lowes on Sunday night, and they only had stuff in the ~$450 range. Then on Monday I went to Ferguson plumbing supply, and the cheapest thing they had in stock was over $500. Then I went to Home Depot and found that model for $419, but while I was waiting for an employee to help me I checked lowes.com again on my phone -- and found that all of their water heaters were 10% off. So rather than go back to Lowes, I just asked Home Depot for a price match. It turns out their policy is to beat the competitor price by 10%, so I ended up getting the whole thing for $362, including tax!
Unfortunately, I ended up with a model with a plastic drain valve, but $200 less than I would have had to pay for the plumbing supply store's model (which, for all I know, might have been plastic too) makes it worth it, right?
One thing I'm happy about is that I got a model shorter than I had before and set it on top of some concrete blocks. I've had some flooding issues in my basement before (including some that could have damaged the previous water heater, but luckily didn't) so I'm glad to get the thing up off the floor.
Now, I've got the thing working, but I'm not 100% happy with the installation: having not read sisto's post yet at the time, I reused my flexible gas hose. It isn't leaking as far as I can tell, but should I remove it and replace it anyway, or leave it be?
I replaced the flexible water hose on the hot side and added one on the cold side. (Before, it had been plumbed with hard copper pipe all the way to the water heater... which turned out to be structural, supporting the weight of the expansion tank. I had to add extra pipe hangers to the joists above.) However, the height isn't quite right, so the steel-braided hoses are bent pretty close to the limits of their flexibility. I'm considering cutting off the pipes much higher, using longer hoses, and while I'm at it installing a shut-off valve on the hot side and a better one on the cold side (e.g. ball valves instead of the kind I have now that has a circular handle so you can't tell if it's open or closed just by looking).
Finally, I had to cut through the PVC condensate drip line for my air conditioner to get the heater into place (which is fine because I was having problems with it clogging anyway), so this weekend I'll definitely be redoing that. Is there any reason I shouldn't plumb the AC condensate, T&P relief valve line, and condensate line from my basement dehumidifier into the same pipe?