Author Topic: Recession coming...  (Read 58943 times)

RWD

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #100 on: March 02, 2019, 09:48:06 AM »
Funny, this thread started in 2017, it's 2019 - still waiting for this recession...  Are we there yet?  Are we there yet?

This thread predates my switch to using notifications instead of new replies so I'm a little late noticing the thread necro. The SP500 is up ~15% plus dividends since then. Thanks for the fear mongering, MMM... But now I'm sure we're really due for a recession, right?

BTDretire

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #101 on: April 09, 2019, 09:17:31 AM »
Funny, this thread started in 2017, it's 2019 - still waiting for this recession...  Are we there yet?  Are we there yet?

This thread predates my switch to using notifications instead of new replies so I'm a little late noticing the thread necro. The SP500 is up ~15% plus dividends since then. Thanks for the fear mongering, MMM... But now I'm sure we're really due for a recession, right?

  Well? https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/08/the-stock-market-is-poised-to-overtake-its-record-high-set-back-in-september.html

RWD

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #102 on: April 10, 2019, 12:11:24 PM »
Just let me know when the top is in

SwordGuy

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #103 on: April 10, 2019, 01:26:16 PM »
All those things are not entirely true or in any event somewhat stereotyped.  Education doesn't have to be more expensive (community college, living at home or w roommates, going to secondary schools) but it is more expensive if you live in luxury student housing and you go to an overpriced school with a BS degree that doesn't translate into a cost appropriate salary.

Homes are ONLY more expensive in gateway markets (SF, NYC, Boston, etc) but this applies to everyone that lives in these areas regardless of age - go to other markets (even just going to the suburbs of the aforementioned markets makes a huge difference) and homes are actually a bargain but the jobs may be less robust.

Healthcare applies to everyone, at least the millennials could stay on parents insurance until 26 so that helped. 

I think the bigger issue is that millenials should be subcatoregized into urban vs. suburban/rural as I think most of the spendy stereotype issues that come up seem to be related more to urban dwelling residents. I know plenty of millennials, even of the younger range, that own houses and cars, have started families, and seem to be financial prudent but they all are in the suburbs - Those in the city not so much.

As usual, it comes down to choices more than anything else.

You're right! College can be so cheap if you do all those things that Boomers never had to do to afford college! ... ... Also, the fact that you can't pay for a year's worth of college based on a summer's worth of work (barring outliers, naturally, because they're outliers and not the average) means that the cost of college tuition has gone up far faster than the price of a person's labor. So, you're wrong.


Fees at University of North Carolina at Pembroke for a year.


Minimum Cost for Full-Time Undergraduate   
                   In-State      Out-of-State
Full Year Tuition  $1,000.00    $5,000.00
Full Year Fees     $2,417.28    $2,417.28
Room and Board     $9,116.00    $9,116.00
Health Insurance   $2,623.00    $2,623.00

If local to the area and living with parents: drop the $9,116 for room and board.

If on parent's health insurance, drop the $2,623 for insurance.

So, basically, an in-state local student could graduate for LESS than the cost of a CHEAP new car!
An in-state non-local student could do so for about $50,000.   Subtract out $24,000 from working 20hrs/wk 40 wks per year and 30hrs/wk the remaining 12 wks per year and we're talking less than the AVERAGE new car price.
Being out of state would only add $16,000 to that cost.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure I could earn $3,418 dollars in a year.    Hey, I actually earned MORE at $3.65 minimum wage back in the 70s when I went to college.  Then again, like most students I knew back in the 70s, I worked all year long.    I know more students today who have NEVER EVER held a job than I did when I attended college.

If I remember correctly, 5 different UNC campuses have this cost structure.

For those who could afford this cost structure with room and board included, there are many other campuses where the tuition is higher, but the college is local so the room and board cost drops by staying at home. 

College does not have to be an expensive choice.  It's just that many people choose to make it so.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2019, 08:57:18 PM by SwordGuy »

DarkandStormy

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #104 on: April 21, 2019, 08:39:40 PM »
Really a pretty poor article (prediction-wise) from MMM.

Imma

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #105 on: April 22, 2019, 02:37:17 AM »
In my country, a government agency publishes a really nice visual of where we are in the current economic cycle. We are definitely heading towards recession, but we're certainly not there yet and could possibly recover.

https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/visualisaties/conjunctuurklok

The website is in Dutch but red means below long-term average, yellow is growing, green is above long term average and orange is declining growth. Every dot represents one marker of the state of the economy (for example, unemployment, consumer trust etc). You can scroll back 20 years and compare the different months. Right now while the labour market is doing well in our country, consumers trust in the market is low and consumption is therefore slowing down as well. I think this mostly has to do with political unrest in Europe, people are scared of the future. Hopefully this will settle down a bit.

dougules

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #106 on: April 22, 2019, 10:54:14 AM »
Really a pretty poor article (prediction-wise) from MMM.

Why do you say that?  There IS a recession coming.  There's no implication that it's going to start tomorrow or even in the next few years.  But it is coming at some point. 

Telecaster

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #107 on: April 22, 2019, 10:58:07 AM »
^ Spot on.  There is a stock market crash coming too.   

markbike528CBX

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #108 on: April 22, 2019, 12:04:22 PM »
^ Spot on.  There is a stock market crash coming too.
At least a correction on 12/26/18!  Excellent call!

talltexan

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #109 on: April 24, 2019, 07:46:05 AM »
I'll confess I took a lot of satisfaction in December 2018 that I'd been so focused on debt reduction instead of putting money into the market only to have it go down.

Unfortunately, I've continued on debt reduction since then, so now I'm...less satisfied.

dougules

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #110 on: April 24, 2019, 03:52:07 PM »
I'll confess I took a lot of satisfaction in December 2018 that I'd been so focused on debt reduction instead of putting money into the market only to have it go down.

Unfortunately, I've continued on debt reduction since then, so now I'm...less satisfied.

Despite what some folks here might say, you win either way. 

sol

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #111 on: April 24, 2019, 04:03:01 PM »
Just for the record, the index is now up over 20% since this thread was started.  At this point, we could have a pretty gnarly recession and still come out financially ahead of someone who tried to time the market based on the information in this thread.

RWD

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #112 on: April 24, 2019, 04:06:55 PM »
Just for the record, the index is now up over 20% since this thread was started.  At this point, we could have a pretty gnarly recession and still come out financially ahead of someone who tried to time the market based on the information in this thread.

You mean the information in MMM's blog post, right? As the thread starter I'd hate to be mistaken for someone who called a recession.

Telecaster

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #113 on: April 24, 2019, 04:31:03 PM »
Just for the record, the index is now up over 20% since this thread was started.  At this point, we could have a pretty gnarly recession and still come out financially ahead of someone who tried to time the market based on the information in this thread.

You mean the information in MMM's blog post, right? As the thread starter I'd hate to be mistaken for someone who called a recession.

I think you may have missed MMM's point.   Or at least his point as I understood it.   He said straight up he did not know when the recession was coming, just that one is coming.   

I'll co-sign that statement all day long.  Same with the notion that a stock market crash is coming.  I abso-fucking-lutey guarantee the stock market will crash.  No idea when, but it will happen.   

The point is to be prepared mentally and financially for those events, because they absolutely will happen.   

dragoncar

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #114 on: April 24, 2019, 06:28:29 PM »
Just for the record, the index is now up over 20% since this thread was started.  At this point, we could have a pretty gnarly recession and still come out financially ahead of someone who tried to time the market based on the information in this thread.

You mean the information in MMM's blog post, right? As the thread starter I'd hate to be mistaken for someone who called a recession.

I think you may have missed MMM's point.   Or at least his point as I understood it.   He said straight up he did not know when the recession was coming, just that one is coming.   



I think RWD understood that point given the content of the original post

RWD

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #115 on: April 25, 2019, 06:23:09 AM »
Just for the record, the index is now up over 20% since this thread was started.  At this point, we could have a pretty gnarly recession and still come out financially ahead of someone who tried to time the market based on the information in this thread.

You mean the information in MMM's blog post, right? As the thread starter I'd hate to be mistaken for someone who called a recession.

I think you may have missed MMM's point.   Or at least his point as I understood it.   He said straight up he did not know when the recession was coming, just that one is coming.

I think RWD understood that point given the content of the original post

Yes, thank you dragoncar. Of course I understood it. I'm still worried about it causing people to overreact either just based on the title alone or certain lines such as these:
Quote
With all those preparations in progress, I hope youíre ready, because thereís a recession on the way.
Quote
So weíve had a good run. If we go on to tie the Clinton-era record, that still gives us a maximum of two years until the trouble hits.

SwordGuy

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #116 on: April 25, 2019, 06:40:40 AM »


You can't really prevent people from missing the point no matter how clearly you write.   The proof is in this thread.

RWD

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #117 on: April 25, 2019, 07:16:13 AM »
You can't really prevent people from missing the point no matter how clearly you write.   The proof is in this thread.
Yup...

Despite MMM's best intentions we still get threads like this one:
Hi fellow mustachians! Iím a long time reader and follower, and first time poster. Iíd love your thoughts on my situation. I agree with MMM that a recession or market correction is coming soon. I live in an expensive coastal city, where Iíve been renting for years. Iíd like to buy a house at some point in the next few years, and Iíd love for it to be when that recession is in full swing.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #118 on: May 01, 2019, 07:29:00 PM »
Really a pretty poor article (prediction-wise) from MMM.

Why do you say that?  There IS a recession coming.  There's no implication that it's going to start tomorrow or even in the next few years.  But it is coming at some point.

From the article...

Quote
Itís a lot easier to fix your problems right now, with a stiff economic tailwind at your back, than it will be in just a couple of short years (or less?) when the high seas and lighting bolts and whirlpools are ripping at your pockets.

Quote
So weíve had a good run. If we go on to tie the Clinton-era record, that still gives us a maximum of two years until the trouble hits.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #119 on: May 01, 2019, 07:34:18 PM »
I think you may have missed MMM's point.   Or at least his point as I understood it.   He said straight up he did not know when the recession was coming, just that one is coming.   

I'll co-sign that statement all day long.  Same with the notion that a stock market crash is coming.  I abso-fucking-lutey guarantee the stock market will crash.  No idea when, but it will happen.   

The point is to be prepared mentally and financially for those events, because they absolutely will happen.

Cool.  A stock market and economic boom are also coming.  What's the purpose of stating this point?

He litters in some Zero Hedge garbage with vague guesses ("couple of short years (or less?) when the high seas and lightning bolts and whirlpools are ripping your pockets" and "that still gives us a maximum of two years until the trouble hits").  I'm not saying MMM was trying to predict when the recession would hit, but he clearly hinted that it would be "soon" or within 2-3 years.  If his point is you don't know when the recession will come why is he throwing in these predictions at all?

SwordGuy

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #120 on: May 02, 2019, 07:15:06 AM »
If his point is you don't know when the recession will come why is he throwing in these predictions at all?

Because after years of supplying brilliantly written and useful material, he managed to slip in a few less-than-perfectly-formed sentences to make his point.   Jeesh.    Sometimes people on this site forget we're not parsing out the red-letter words in the New Testament for their full meaning...

dragoncar

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #121 on: May 02, 2019, 09:49:25 AM »
He thought it would be sooner, which I think was a reasonable guess,  ut he was clear that he couldnít predict anything.  The point is not to get killed into thinking the bull will last forever and to always be prepared for a downturn.  This is good advice.

Has it even been 2-4 years yet?  He could still be right

SisterX

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #122 on: May 02, 2019, 11:04:01 AM »
He thought it would be sooner, which I think was a reasonable guess,  ut he was clear that he couldnít predict anything.  The point is not to get killed into thinking the bull will last forever and to always be prepared for a downturn.  This is good advice.

Has it even been 2-4 years yet?  He could still be right

It's been almost 2 years (in June). Considering all the uncertainties in the world currently, and the timeline (such a long boom time), and all the indicators (inversions and credit ratings and debt, oh my!) it wouldn't be at all if a recession started...basically anytime. I'm even increasingly reading articles about major investors and huge companies that are preparing for a recession to start either this year or next.

I'm not saying this because we should do anything differently, really. Wasn't stay the course and be prepared sort of what the article was getting at? That was my takeaway, anyway, for those of us who are already generally pretty frugal. Plus, a long lead-up and preparation time is ideal, because we can be even more frugal and put more away "just in case".

TheAnonOne

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #123 on: July 18, 2019, 02:46:38 PM »
He thought it would be sooner, which I think was a reasonable guess,  ut he was clear that he couldnít predict anything.  The point is not to get killed into thinking the bull will last forever and to always be prepared for a downturn.  This is good advice.

Has it even been 2-4 years yet?  He could still be right

It's been almost 2 years (in June). Considering all the uncertainties in the world currently, and the timeline (such a long boom time), and all the indicators (inversions and credit ratings and debt, oh my!) it wouldn't be at all if a recession started...basically anytime. I'm even increasingly reading articles about major investors and huge companies that are preparing for a recession to start either this year or next.

I'm not saying this because we should do anything differently, really. Wasn't stay the course and be prepared sort of what the article was getting at? That was my takeaway, anyway, for those of us who are already generally pretty frugal. Plus, a long lead-up and preparation time is ideal, because we can be even more frugal and put more away "just in case".

Flexibility is key, the ONLY thing I am doing differently now than 4 years ago is having a somewhat larger emergency fund. What else is there to do? I am going to keep buying and go down with this dang ship! (I say that as the market has never been higher!)

talltexan

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #124 on: July 24, 2019, 02:17:27 PM »
In a fifty-year retirement, there are going to be all sorts of ups and downs. Being robust to them is the key.

talltexan

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #125 on: July 25, 2019, 07:43:08 AM »
I rebalance quarterly on my birthday and the three month intervals afterward.

I've been shifting from all stocks to 20% bonds. The bond stake meant that I had a higher return in my retirement account than any co-workers (we all compare at the end of each year) for 2018. They are all 100% equities, including one of them who retired earlier this year. 

dougules

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #126 on: July 25, 2019, 10:26:48 AM »
I think that we are going to see 20-30% correction in stock markets globally in 2020 or 2021. However, I'm not afraid of it, since I'm holding cash now. I wrote a blog post about my strategy. Basically I will keep investing every month and I am happy to buy more when the prices drop :)

Meanwhile you're losing money to inflation every day.   Holding more cash than you need is a bet with the odds against you.  I honestly have been expecting a  20-30% correction for several years now, and it has not materialized.  If we had a 30% correction now it wouldn't even take us back 3 years.  I would like to see one because I'm still buying, but I'm not expecting it.  I'm only holding as much cash as I feel like I need for an emergency fund/cash buffer. 

Tyson

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #127 on: July 25, 2019, 10:58:00 AM »
I think that we are going to see 20-30% correction in stock markets globally in 2020 or 2021. However, I'm not afraid of it, since I'm holding cash now. I wrote a blog post about my strategy. Basically I will keep investing every month and I am happy to buy more when the prices drop :)

Meanwhile you're losing money to inflation every day.   Holding more cash than you need is a bet with the odds against you.  I honestly have been expecting a  20-30% correction for several years now, and it has not materialized.  If we had a 30% correction now it wouldn't even take us back 3 years.  I would like to see one because I'm still buying, but I'm not expecting it.  I'm only holding as much cash as I feel like I need for an emergency fund/cash buffer.

Agreed.  The core of the type of thinking that Financialnordic is using is that the markets are somehow "overvalued" and that not only will it correct by dropping 20% or 30%, but it'll also start over and not recover, or at least take a long time to recover. 

If that's someone's underlying thinking, then they really shouldn't be investing in stocks.  Or relying on the 4% rule.  Because the 4% rule depends on stocks doing what they always have - go up.

Any other approach besides "buy and hold" is just some variation on timing the market.  Which will almost always leave you worse off than if you'd just stayed the course.  It's true in the drawdown stage, and it's even MORE true during the accumulation phase.  Really, if people are still building their nest egg, they should never, ever dance in/out of the market.  Not unless they want to be yet another sad example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect. 

dragoncar

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #128 on: July 25, 2019, 04:36:34 PM »
I think that we are going to see 20-30% correction in stock markets globally in 2020 or 2021. However, I'm not afraid of it, since I'm holding cash now. I wrote a blog post about my strategy. Basically I will keep investing every month and I am happy to buy more when the prices drop :)

Meanwhile you're losing money to inflation every day.   Holding more cash than you need is a bet with the odds against you.  I honestly have been expecting a  20-30% correction for several years now, and it has not materialized.  If we had a 30% correction now it wouldn't even take us back 3 years.  I would like to see one because I'm still buying, but I'm not expecting it.  I'm only holding as much cash as I feel like I need for an emergency fund/cash buffer.

I'm not sure what interest rates are in nordic...land, but here in the US you can easily get 2% on your savings account, which is more than the 2019 inflation rate of 1.65%.  It's a myth that "cash" always loses to inflation, unless it's under you bed (https://www.businessinsider.com/this-chart-destroys-that-famous-myth-about-the-dollar-losing-90-of-its-value-2013-11).  With 3-mo Tbills you do pretty well over long periods

RWD

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #129 on: July 26, 2019, 05:11:34 AM »
It would be silly to go with 80-90% ratio in stocks while there is a 10-year bull run behind us.
June 1952. Stock market has returned 12.2% per year (inflation adjusted!) for a decade without any major drops. Bad time to go heavily in stocks? The next 13 years the stock market continued to return 12.8% per year (also inflation adjusted).

Tyson

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #130 on: July 26, 2019, 09:55:03 AM »
It would be silly to go with 80-90% ratio in stocks while there is a 10-year bull run behind us.
June 1952. Stock market has returned 12.2% per year (inflation adjusted!) for a decade without any major drops. Bad time to go heavily in stocks? The next 13 years the stock market continued to return 12.8% per year (also inflation adjusted).

Stop using logic to counter other people's gut feelings!  lol, j/k of course :)

dougules

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #131 on: July 26, 2019, 11:09:33 AM »
In Europe, it's not possible to get a 2% interest on your savings account at this moment. Our interests are at 0.00% while you guys in the US have 2.5%. https://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-banks.aspx
And, I only have 9.8% of my net worth in pure cash. https://financialnordic.com/my-wealth-05-2019/

Another point why I'm holding cash and not going all in to stocks: I already have around 60% of my wealth in stocks (well, mutual funds) and I'm even buying more every month. It would be silly to go with 80-90% ratio in stocks while there is a 10-year bull run behind us. In 2007 and 2000, people were thinking that the money grows in trees. What goes up, must come down (until it goes back up and higher).

I am avoiding too many risks, and while it means that I might miss some good gains in stock market, it also means that I'm in a good position to make sure that I will make good gains long-term. Many people seem to forget how the markets work. Best buys are made in the down market :)

You're assuming you will know when the market is good and when it's bad.  It's completely unpredictable. 

Telecaster

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #132 on: July 26, 2019, 02:51:43 PM »
In Europe, it's not possible to get a 2% interest on your savings account at this moment. Our interests are at 0.00% while you guys in the US have 2.5%. https://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-banks.aspx
And, I only have 9.8% of my net worth in pure cash. https://financialnordic.com/my-wealth-05-2019/

Another point why I'm holding cash and not going all in to stocks: I already have around 60% of my wealth in stocks (well, mutual funds) and I'm even buying more every month. It would be silly to go with 80-90% ratio in stocks while there is a 10-year bull run behind us. In 2007 and 2000, people were thinking that the money grows in trees. What goes up, must come down (until it goes back up and higher).

I am avoiding too many risks, and while it means that I might miss some good gains in stock market, it also means that I'm in a good position to make sure that I will make good gains long-term. Many people seem to forget how the markets work. Best buys are made in the down market :)

I think everybody remembers the part in bold.  Which is why everybody says be very careful with this strategy.  The market can trickle up or trickle down for long periods of time.   Very often it isn't entirely clear you are in a down market until after the fact.  Sometimes well after.   In the meantime, don't forget to account for the opportunity cost of going to cash.  You think you are avoiding risk, but you won't know if that's true or not until the future.  Maybe years in the future. 

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #133 on: July 26, 2019, 03:03:19 PM »

The market can trickle up or trickle down for long periods of time.   Very often it isn't entirely clear you are in a down market until after the fact.  Sometimes well after.   In the meantime, don't forget to account for the opportunity cost of going to cash.  You think you are avoiding risk, but you won't know if that's true or not until the future.  Maybe years in the future.

Thatís true.  But you can also objectively look at measures such as the CAPE ratio and say that US equities are very pricey. You can look at 10 year bond yields of around 2% and say theyíre utter crap. Everyone has their own risk/reward requirements. Mine arenít being met so cash looks like one of the less ugly girls at the dance.

Tyson

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #134 on: July 26, 2019, 03:13:47 PM »

The market can trickle up or trickle down for long periods of time.   Very often it isn't entirely clear you are in a down market until after the fact.  Sometimes well after.   In the meantime, don't forget to account for the opportunity cost of going to cash.  You think you are avoiding risk, but you won't know if that's true or not until the future.  Maybe years in the future.

Thatís true.  But you can also objectively look at measures such as the CAPE ratio and say that US equities are very pricey. You can look at 10 year bond yields of around 2% and say theyíre utter crap. Everyone has their own risk/reward requirements. Mine arenít being met so cash looks like one of the less ugly girls at the dance.

Are you in accumulation or drawdown phase?

DarkandStormy

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #135 on: December 24, 2019, 10:48:32 AM »
I rebalance quarterly on my birthday and the three month intervals afterward.

I've been shifting from all stocks to 20% bonds. The bond stake meant that I had a higher return in my retirement account than any co-workers (we all compare at the end of each year) for 2018. They are all 100% equities, including one of them who retired earlier this year.

And they all probably crushed you in 2019.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #136 on: December 24, 2019, 10:51:53 AM »
Has it even been 2-4 years yet?  He could still be right

It has been 2.5 years.  No recession.

The advice given in the post was fine.  The vague framing of an incoming recession ("two years or less?") was obviously dubious.  And time has shown it to be wrong.  Don't make predictions - the internet never forgets.

RWD

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #137 on: December 24, 2019, 11:05:07 AM »
Market is up 32% plus dividends since MMM's blog post. A recession at this point isn't even guaranteed to wipe out those gains.

dragoncar

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #138 on: December 24, 2019, 12:45:27 PM »
Has it even been 2-4 years yet?  He could still be right

It has been 2.5 years.  No recession.

The advice given in the post was fine.  The vague framing of an incoming recession ("two years or less?") was obviously dubious.  And time has shown it to be wrong.  Don't make predictions - the internet never forgets.

Lol, a sentence ending in a question mark is now a prediction and you are complaining that it was too vague?  Isnít your whole point that you canít predict recessions and therefore a specific prediction would be foolhardy?

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #139 on: December 24, 2019, 01:06:46 PM »
h/t Dave Ramsey: 

" THEY have correctly predicted 2 out of the last 12 recessions. "

There will always be talk of a coming recession and more often it does not materialize.  This is heightened when everything seems to be going well; we all expect the bursting bubble and the talking heads on TV like to appear clever by making dire predictions that they are never held to account for later.  Further, the recession is only actually truly identified after it has begun, that is how it is understood to be a period of retreat after a time of growth.  Obviously.

A long-ago FIRED individual who no longer visits these boards lamented that the market was a bit too hot and he was expecting a big pullback, but kept up his investing toward the ultimate freedom goal.  The Dow was at 15,000 at the time he put the thought into writing.  He was wrong but who cares, he still proceeded with his FIRE plan and has been cubicle-free since 2015. 

My message?  Work your plan and put away any panic.       

DarkandStormy

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #140 on: December 24, 2019, 01:43:20 PM »
Has it even been 2-4 years yet?  He could still be right

It has been 2.5 years.  No recession.

The advice given in the post was fine.  The vague framing of an incoming recession ("two years or less?") was obviously dubious.  And time has shown it to be wrong.  Don't make predictions - the internet never forgets.

Lol, a sentence ending in a question mark is now a prediction and you are complaining that it was too vague?  Isnít your whole point that you canít predict recessions and therefore a specific prediction would be foolhardy?

That was Pete's own advice, which he didn't follow.  Sad.

dougules

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #141 on: December 26, 2019, 09:55:01 AM »
Has it even been 2-4 years yet?  He could still be right

It has been 2.5 years.  No recession.

The advice given in the post was fine.  The vague framing of an incoming recession ("two years or less?") was obviously dubious.  And time has shown it to be wrong.  Don't make predictions - the internet never forgets.

Lol, a sentence ending in a question mark is now a prediction and you are complaining that it was too vague?  Isnít your whole point that you canít predict recessions and therefore a specific prediction would be foolhardy?

That was Pete's own advice, which he didn't follow.  Sad.

There weren't any predictions in that post except that a recession would come at some point.  I don't think there was any advice about a specific timeline given. 

RWD

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #142 on: December 26, 2019, 04:48:32 PM »
There weren't any predictions in that post except that a recession would come at some point.  I don't think there was any advice about a specific timeline given.

From the article:
Quote
So weíve had a good run. If we go on to tie the Clinton-era record, that still gives us a maximum of two years until the trouble hits.
Quote
Whether it comes in two weeks or four years, I hope all of us are prepared for next hill on this roller coaster Ė itís a lot more fun when you know itís coming.

Not a hard commitment to a specific timeline but definitely suggesting that it's quite likely sooner rather than later.

dougules

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #143 on: December 27, 2019, 07:21:32 AM »
There weren't any predictions in that post except that a recession would come at some point.  I don't think there was any advice about a specific timeline given.

From the article:
Quote
So weíve had a good run. If we go on to tie the Clinton-era record, that still gives us a maximum of two years until the trouble hits.
Quote
Whether it comes in two weeks or four years, I hope all of us are prepared for next hill on this roller coaster Ė itís a lot more fun when you know itís coming.

Not a hard commitment to a specific timeline but definitely suggesting that it's quite likely sooner rather than later.

Yeah I guess a suggestion, but not a very strong one based on the second quote. 

dragoncar

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #144 on: December 27, 2019, 11:44:44 AM »
There weren't any predictions in that post except that a recession would come at some point.  I don't think there was any advice about a specific timeline given.

From the article:
Quote
So weíve had a good run. If we go on to tie the Clinton-era record, that still gives us a maximum of two years until the trouble hits.
Quote
Whether it comes in two weeks or four years, I hope all of us are prepared for next hill on this roller coaster Ė itís a lot more fun when you know itís coming.

Not a hard commitment to a specific timeline but definitely suggesting that it's quite likely sooner rather than later.

Yeah I guess a suggestion, but not a very strong one based on the second quote.

He made a guess and made it clear it was a guess and moreover that it shouldnít affect your investing strategy.  To continue to break out pitchforks and revive this thread every six months, rehashing earlier arguments, is just as foolhardy as predicting the next recession

DarkandStormy

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #145 on: December 30, 2019, 12:17:19 PM »
Has it even been 2-4 years yet?  He could still be right

It has been 2.5 years.  No recession.

The advice given in the post was fine.  The vague framing of an incoming recession ("two years or less?") was obviously dubious.  And time has shown it to be wrong.  Don't make predictions - the internet never forgets.

Lol, a sentence ending in a question mark is now a prediction and you are complaining that it was too vague?  Isnít your whole point that you canít predict recessions and therefore a specific prediction would be foolhardy?

That was Pete's own advice, which he didn't follow.  Sad.

There weren't any predictions in that post except that a recession would come at some point.  I don't think there was any advice about a specific timeline given.

Quote
Itís a lot easier to fix your problems right now, with a stiff economic tailwind at your back, than it will be in just a couple of short years (or less?) when the high seas and lighting bolts and whirlpools are ripping at your pockets.

The "advice" is really run-of-the-mill stuff -> perhaps only paying off your mortgage early would have cost you in the previous ~3 years.

So if the point of the post was to continue making the financial moves you need to make to reach FI regardless of the current economic climate, why throw in these "suggestions" of when the next recession is coming?  It reads entirely as click bait.  I guess it's easier to get people to click on your article if you dress it up with some gloom and doom predictions/suggestions about the next recession being close while giving out the same, relatively boring advice on how to reach FI or any other financial goals outside of the mainstream.  Don't waste money on luxury items, live well within your means, eliminate and don't take on consumer debt, etc.  It's the same stuff with a bunch of stuff about a recession that may or may not hit in the next two years.

dragoncar

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #146 on: December 30, 2019, 09:49:28 PM »
Yup, fix your financial problems in good times because bad times will inevitably come.  Most financial advice is run of the mill these days.  We canít all be doing original research (there are better blogs for that)

dougules

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #147 on: January 02, 2020, 09:53:26 AM »
Yup, fix your financial problems in good times because bad times will inevitably come.  Most financial advice is run of the mill these days.  We canít all be doing original research (there are better blogs for that)

Yeah, most of MMM's stuff isn't so much original ideas so much as original ways of presenting existing ideas.  That's important, too, though.  All the original research in the world isn't worth anything if nobody knows about it. 

talltexan

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #148 on: January 07, 2020, 02:23:32 PM »
I rebalance quarterly on my birthday and the three month intervals afterward.

I've been shifting from all stocks to 20% bonds. The bond stake meant that I had a higher return in my retirement account than any co-workers (we all compare at the end of each year) for 2018. They are all 100% equities, including one of them who retired earlier this year.

And they all probably crushed you in 2019.

It's true. SP500 returned over 31% during CY 2019, so these co-workers--all of whom had a higher share of SP500 relative to other risky assets, and none of whom have a higher bonds stake than I do--beat me this year. Hoping for a rotation back to value and international this year!

Daisyedwards800

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #149 on: January 15, 2020, 03:35:22 PM »
The point of the post is that eventually a recession will arrive - that is a fact.  Not that he was predicting one soon.