Author Topic: Should I cash-out ReFi?  (Read 1505 times)

SimpleLifer

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Should I cash-out ReFi?
« on: July 04, 2019, 08:49:15 AM »
I'm considering refinancing my home.  I've lived in the home for 10 years.  7-8 years from now, I intend to sell and downsize.  Downsizing now is not completely off the table, but I'm exploring this as the other option. 

Conservative home value:  $1.6M
Current outstanding mortgage:  $560K
No other debt

Other Assets:
Taxable and Tax-deferred accounts:  $1M - ~50% is in taxable; ~50% is in tax-deferred.

Currently saving ~40-45% of my Net Income

Most of the equities in the taxable and tax-deferred accounts are vanguard funds (VTSAX and VOO).  With the exception of changing asset allocation, I've held most of these assets for a very long time.

What should I be thinking about when considering a cash-out refinance?  I'm looking at refinancing to $900K @~3.625%-3.685%, pay off existing mortgage, and put the extra in my taxable account for the next 7-8 years invested in VTSAX.  I would take a little out each month to pay back the mortgage amount above and beyond the amount I pay now.  I'm definitely NOT the type who takes a throat punch from the stock market and cashes out.  I lived through 2008-2010 without cashing out a single penny (and kept investing).

In my HCOL area, home values appreciate ~4-6% per year for the last 20 years (very conservative estimate). 

I get that it's speculative to "buy into the stock market", but my opinion is that it's also risky to have so much of my net worth sitting in a single family home.

I appreciate your opinions and feedback.

SwordGuy

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Re: Should I cash-out ReFi?
« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2019, 09:52:59 AM »
What's the change in your monthly cash flow and savings rate if you do this?

SimpleLifer

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Re: Should I cash-out ReFi?
« Reply #2 on: July 04, 2019, 01:09:59 PM »
What's the change in your monthly cash flow and savings rate if you do this?

I'm getting quotes tomorrow, but a quick search online, it looks like my monthly mortgage payment will increase $1,457 per month.  That's $17,484 per year, and $123,388 over the next 7 years.  (simple math)

My savings rate will decrease about 11%, but it would not cut into my tax-deferred savings (401k and HSA). 

I would consider using dividend income from VTSAX to offset the additional monthly mortgage cost.

If I do a cash-out refi, I estimate I'd invest an additional $340K.  Over the next 7 years (simple math), that investment would be worth $582K - $123K (repayment of mortgage loan) = $459K.  *Based on  8% return on VTSAX (currently, VTSAX has a 10.95% 5y Average Return, so 8% seems conservative).

Home values in my area tend to flow with stock market trends, just slightly lower.  It's reasonable to expect that if my investment in VTSAX were increasing over the next 7 years, my home value would too...probably just wouldn't be at the same rate.  Probably 2-3% less

waltworks

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Re: Should I cash-out ReFi?
« Reply #3 on: July 06, 2019, 10:22:50 PM »
If you want to double down on the everything bubble, you do you.

I would not do it, in your shoes. Assuming you are basically FI now, you have nothing to gain and a lot to lose.

-W

efree

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Re: Should I cash-out ReFi?
« Reply #4 on: July 07, 2019, 03:38:19 AM »
One thing you haven't mentioned is your current mortgage rate. If it's below 3.9% I would not refinance to 3.65%. I understand your thinking that 8% is larger than 3.65% but that 8% is far from guaranteed and far from conservative. If you were talking about a 30 year period then 8% would be conservative but you have a 7 year period. You can easily find 7 year periods with the annual increase of 3-5% or even lower than that. That's why you shouldn't do it.

Also because your gain in the optimistic 8% scenario wouldn't be that much. Your $340k would make you $14,790 more annually (340000 * (0.08-0.0365)) and this amount would decrease slightly every year as you paid the mortgage off. If your current interest rate is lower, let's say 3.3%, then you have to subtract the increased interest: 560000 * (0.0365-0.033) = 1960. So that would be $12,830 a year. But then you also have refinancing costs which will decrease this amount even more. Is it really worth it? Keeping in mind that 8% over the next seven years is far from given?

Ben Kurtz

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Re: Should I cash-out ReFi?
« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2019, 11:43:35 AM »
This question isn't really answerable, or even amenable to much guidance, on the information supplied.

I'm going to urge you to take a huge step back and answer some much bigger life-philosophy questions first. Once that stuff is aired out you might be able to arrive at a more useful answer to your stated question.

Let me start with an observation: With a $2 million net worth, you are already -- almost certainly -- financially independent.  My rule of thumb for the financial independence of a family of four is $1 million invested (that figure's a couple years old and could probably stand to be bumped to $1.1 million, but I'm too lazy to look up the CPI data) plus a paid-off house.  That's $40,000 per year spending money purely from passive income (see: 4% safe withdrawal rate) without having to worry about the rent --  I'm generally in favor of minimizing fixed expenses when living purely off investments because it helps people sleep better while the investment markets zig and zag.  The underlying logic to this rule of thumb is that the median U.S. household income is around $60,000 per year, so $40,000 in spending money plus a rent-free house is economically equivalent to that, roughly speaking.  Showing a lower headline income on the family tax return is usually a big advantage in terms of tax rates, Obamacare subsidies, etc., in addition to the "sleep at night" point.

You easily exceed this threshold.  By a lot.  In at least 9 out of 10 of cities and towns across America, you can get far more house than anybody should even really desire for $500,000, leaving you with at least $1.5 million invested, or $60,000 per year spending money, and no rent or mortgage to pay.  That standard of living probably puts you ahead of 70% or 75% of the entire country, entirely on passive income. 

Congratulations, you've won the game of money!

So before charging ahead into extra innings, you really need to put some bigger picture things on the table: What are your goals?  Why are you continuing to work at your chosen profession (whatever it is); why are you continuing to save; and why are you continuing to live in your neighborhood?

I don't mean these questions facetiously, or with the intent to pre-judge.  The answer to some of these questions may be "inertia" -- we all fall prey to that -- or the answers may be part of a well-thought-out-plan, or they may be part of a plan you adopted by rote some time ago without really deliberately weighing the alternatives, or at least without having recently reviewed them.

Put another way: if you took this cash-out refi, invested the money in securities and did well over the next eight years leaving you with $250,000 more than you would have had in your pocket had you not bothered with all this, what is your plan for those incremental dollars? What would you put them towards, in terms of obtaining goods, services, status, financial security, the ability to make charitable gifts, or whatever?  You need to start answering this question before anyone can give you meaningful advice as to whether you should lever up to invest more (higher-risk / higher-reward strategy) or whether to restrain your balance sheet and leverage.  But there is one thing I can tell you: the answer to this question cannot credibly be that you need an extra $250,000 invested in order to have reasonable assurance that you can meet your basic needs for food, shelter, clothing and physical security while living in the U.S.A., on the passive income generated by your assets.  Because you've already got enough assets for that by a huge margin.

Personal finance is equal parts personal and financial.  Your personal goals come first whether you know it or not; the financial strategies follow.   
« Last Edit: July 09, 2019, 11:45:39 AM by Ben Kurtz »

 

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