Author Topic: Retirement Plan: Pension Calculations and Home Equity  (Read 1741 times)

MattinSD

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Retirement Plan: Pension Calculations and Home Equity
« on: November 08, 2022, 12:44:51 PM »
Hi Everyone! I’m still at least 10 years out from retirement but I’ve been thinking a lot about how to be sure I am on the right path. My plan is a bit unusual given my circumstances: a government employee with a generous pension owning a home in high cost coastal California.

Here is my general situation: I am married with three kids. I currently have a high income but low savings rate because we spend a lot on vacations and getting a good cushion set up for 529 plans for the kids. I’m also spending ~$3k a month on a mortgage. We are happy with this lifestyle and want to enjoy our life with our kids while we are relatively young. We could have a higher savings rate, but don’t see the need right now given the pension benefit.

Lately I’ve been thinking of retiring when my youngest (hopefully) leaves for college in 10 years when my wife and I are 52. At that point, even assuming no additional appreciation, we would have about $1.6 million in home equity. With a *very* conservative estimate of an additional $100k in investment savings.

But I also have a government pension. If I retired and started collecting payments in 10 years (age 52), I could receive about $4,400 a month for the rest of my life. However, if I wait until 60 to start receiving benefits even if I stop working at 52, I would receive about $7,200 a month. One additional consideration is if I stop working at 52 and collect benefits immediately, my healthcare is mostly covered, whereas if I wait until 60 I get no healthcare benefits (until Medicare). There is a formula with the benefit increasing each year if I were to start collecting between 52 and 60. I’ll also be eligible for SS monthly benefits along with my wife, but that obviously comes later.

Although it will probably be lower, I am assuming just for planning that we will having monthly retirement expenses of $7,000/month, in large part because of high cost housing. We plan on selling our home once the kids leave, so at age 52 I could plan on cashing out that $1.6million in equity (minus capital gains tax) and either buying a smaller, cheaper house or renting. If we were to buy and stay in the same area, a new place would cost at least $700,000.

If I wanted to retire at 52, I see two options: either start collecting the $4,400 pension benefits immediately and pull from my new savings from the house sale to cover the difference or rely solely on savings (drawing well over 4% safe withdrawal) until I hit 60 to maximize the pension benefit, which at that point would be sufficient to cover monthly expenses. I could cut monthly expenses by buying a new home for cash, but that would obviously lower by savings.

Is one option better than the other? Is there a different option I’m ignoring? Is there something different I should be doing now to make this easier in 10 years? Any advice is appreciated.  I know it’s an option, but not really looking for advice to boost savings now to retire even earlier. We are doing that too, but I’m just trying to simplify for this post.

Spicolli

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Re: Retirement Plan: Pension Calculations and Home Equity
« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2022, 07:25:06 PM »
I wouldn't feel comfortable with only $100K in savings even with a home and pension. Would the estimated $7K/month expenses be less with a less expensive house? In any event, I'd concentrate on saving and investing what you can and see where you are in 5 years.

MattinSD

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Re: Retirement Plan: Pension Calculations and Home Equity
« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2022, 09:17:52 PM »
I could have been clearer. A key part is selling the house and relying on the equity.  Here is basically how I look at it:

Option 1: Total savings of ~$1.5M. SWR of 4%= $5,000/mo. If I took the pension at 52 ($4,400/mo) that would lead to income of $9,400/mo. But that income would have to cover housing. Alternatively, could buy a smaller house for $700k, which would cut savings, but also lead to spending below $7k.

Option 2: Same savings, but wait until 60 to collect pension of $7,200/mo. Same housing consideration. But would also have to go above SWR until 60. Obviously a lot of uncertainty in these numbers at this point.

Sandi_k

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Re: Retirement Plan: Pension Calculations and Home Equity
« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2022, 04:57:16 AM »
My thoughts.

1) I would work longer than age 52. The medical coverage in retirement is quite literally priceless in the US, especially if the ACA is disbanded after the 2024 elections.

2) I would be prioritizing saving the max in my 401(k) each year - like, $30k per year for the next 5 years.

3) I would mock up a spreadsheet: rows are years, columns are anticipated income streams.
  - I have a column for my expected pension income each month, based on retirement calculator estimates for my pension;
  - I have a column/cell for 3.75% from my retirement savings each month;
  - I have a column/cell for my Social Security, assuming I claim at age 70 to max it;
  - I have a column/cell for DH's SocSec, assuming he claims at age 65.

I discount SocSecurity by 25% for us both, given its viability stats. I then add up the monthly income from all four columns, and multiply by 12 to get our annual income in each row.

4) I would figure out what you need to live annually; plan to use a higher WR from investment sources, plus pension (at age 58? 59?) until you can substitute the WR for your Social Security. I would still want at least $500k in cash/stock/bond/liquid investments by the time I start drawing on Social Security - so you have a lot of savings you need to acquire.

Doing it this way means you have a very clear view of what your income variations would be for each year, based on realistic assumptions of investment growth. (I assume 5.5% growth, 2.5% inflation, so 3% real growth).

Fidelity and New Retirement sites both also have a good calculator, where you can add in one time infusions of cash - such as downsizing your house, or inheritance.

Spicolli

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Re: Retirement Plan: Pension Calculations and Home Equity
« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2022, 09:06:39 AM »
Is the pension COLA'ed? Have you figured in the medical cost if you have to cover it? Is there an in-between alternative, like working until 55 that will give you more of a cushion?

Given your 10 year or more time frame, you could continue to shoot for retiring at 52 but be prepared to work a bit longer if earnings, savings, and investments aren't what you anticipated.

Laura33

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Re: Retirement Plan: Pension Calculations and Home Equity
« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2022, 11:10:52 AM »
I reiterate the advice you've been given to save more now.  You have basically all of your eggs in two baskets:  your house, and your pension.  Both of those things "feel" certain, but they're not.  Some of us are old enough to remember when the CA real estate market was in the doldrums -- not just for a year or two, but more like a decade.  While it is unlikely that will happen again, almost all of your own personal assets are betting it doesn't.  And note that interest rates are already rising, which necessarily cuts into the affordability of already-unaffordable prices.  So it is prudent to base your future planning on the assumption that you may not get as much from the house as you think you will.

As to the pension, last I heard, many CA jurisdictions are struggling with funding their pension obligations.  I do not profess to be an expert in anything to do with CA.  But over the past 4 decades or so, many folks who relied on pensions for retirement found themselves receiving less than they anticipated, or dealing with other benefit changes (e.g., maybe your lifetime paid medical insurance goes away even if the payment stays the same).  Again, given how much of your retirement is based on the pension performing exactly as it is currently projected to, it is reasonable to look at the "what ifs" so you have a plan if the shit does hit the fan.

And this is where having your own 'stache of investments/cash can come into play.  Sure, there's no guarantee the markets will perform well, either.  But the more sources of income you have, the more likely it is that at least one or two will continue to provide what you need if/when the others go through a bad spell.  Think of it like a chair, where the more legs you have, the more stable you are.  Right now, you have the classic 3-legged stool of pension, SS, and home.  That's awesome!  You're definitely better off than the vast majority of people.  But if you prop that up with a load of your own personal investments, now it's a chair, and is even more stable. 

The other benefit of investing more now is that it habituates you to living on a slightly lower income.  At worst, saving $$ now will tell you that you really want to maintain your current lifestyle, which tells you that you should plan to work longer if you find you need to (i.e., if your pension/home equity wouldn't be able to meet your current income when you want to retire).  And at best, you find that cutting back on spending doesn't actually decrease your happiness, which means you don't need as much for the future, which means you can retire earlier on less. 

Finally, you don't actually need to decide now.  You have at least a decade to decide, and many, many things will change before that time comes, and the decisions you make now will have a major impact on where you are then.  My recommendation is always to prepare to be retired at the earliest possible time -- meaning to save more now, so that if you hit 52 and are ready to go, you are in a position to do so.  Then, if you hit 52 and your pension/home aren't paying out as much as you'd hoped, you have the flexibility to adjust your plan, because you have both cash (to cover you if you're ready to quit) and time (to continue working and build up the pension more if you're not willing to live on the reduced income). 

Silrossi46

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Re: Retirement Plan: Pension Calculations and Home Equity
« Reply #6 on: November 09, 2022, 11:53:42 AM »
One of the more important points that was already made is the question regarding cola.  Also, and as already stated, healthcare piece is also important.  Cola will ensure that the pension keeps some stride with inflation.  I would not be comfortable with relying only on the home equity and some savings. 

My pension is not cola adjusted.  I stand to get a much higher pension then the numbers here but again non cola’d.  I also have some uncertainties in what my burn rate will be in retirement if I remain in current relationship with much younger S/O.  These uncertainties have me remaining till age 55.  (Currently 52) even with all of this I still have a million in todays values invested in 457b and after tax.  Just more food for thought I suppose. 

Villanelle

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Re: Retirement Plan: Pension Calculations and Home Equity
« Reply #7 on: November 09, 2022, 11:55:24 AM »
So do you have any savings now (not home equity, but actual savings)?  It seems like not.  So you have a high-paying job and spend nearly 100% of it (outside 529 contributions).  it seems like that number is well over $7000/mo, so how did you arrive at that number?  Do you think that it's realistic, or is it just based on what you wish your expenses were, not the way you actually live?

Look at what you actually spend now.  Not what you come up with if you write out all the expenses you can think of--take you annual take-home pay, and subtract whatever you put in savings in the last year, and subtract the 529 contributions (although you might still have expenses for your children even after age 18).  That's what you are spending.  Unless you are willing to make cuts (now, because "oh we will spend less in the future" rarely happens if you are talking lifestyle expenses), that's the number you nneed to target.  Then work backwards with the 4% rule.  If you want to calculate some home equity because you plan to downsize, I'd only do that at a steep discount, in case house prices falter. 

Regardless of these answers, it seems you can and should save much more now.  Otherwise, I'd plan to work well past 52 since it seems like you make a lot and spend nearly every penny of that. 

MattinSD

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Re: Retirement Plan: Pension Calculations and Home Equity
« Reply #8 on: November 09, 2022, 12:30:53 PM »
Thanks for the feedback. I think my attempt to simplify the situation is leading to some confusion. I do have additional savings but trying to not rely on it due to a potential need to care for a sibling with a mental disability. That need may go away in the next ten years based on complicated family issues not worth explaining, but I’ve been thinking of a worse case scenario where those savings are committed elsewhere and premised on some assumptions regarding pensions and home equity. And yes, the pension does have a COLA. Apologies for any confusion caused by being too vague, I know these posts often have a lot more detail.

Villanelle

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Re: Retirement Plan: Pension Calculations and Home Equity
« Reply #9 on: November 09, 2022, 01:37:32 PM »
Thanks for the feedback. I think my attempt to simplify the situation is leading to some confusion. I do have additional savings but trying to not rely on it due to a potential need to care for a sibling with a mental disability. That need may go away in the next ten years based on complicated family issues not worth explaining, but I’ve been thinking of a worse case scenario where those savings are committed elsewhere and premised on some assumptions regarding pensions and home equity. And yes, the pension does have a COLA. Apologies for any confusion caused by being too vague, I know these posts often have a lot more detail.

That' doesn't change the answer much.  Still need to know your actual annual spend (and what you think will changed, other than 529s) to give better advice. And if you want this fund set aside, then it still needs to be treated almost as though it doesn't exist.  It can be a mental back up plan, but beyond that, it shouldn't factor into your numbers because if you do use it for that purpose, then you no longer have it.  I'd treat it like I'd treat an likely inheritance, or something similar: a potential windfall that may happen, but not something I use in my calculations because you don't want to (and can't) rely on having it to live off when you retire.

affordablehousing

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Re: Retirement Plan: Pension Calculations and Home Equity
« Reply #10 on: November 10, 2022, 10:29:21 PM »
I think a lot may happen in 10 years....