Author Topic: Real Life Retirement Expenses?  (Read 2280 times)

Remington

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 1
Real Life Retirement Expenses?
« on: September 10, 2024, 10:24:30 AM »
I feel like I'm pretty knowledgeable about finances and planning but we started later than we probably should have.  We cannot figure out how much we will need as so much of our monthly expenses is dominated by our kids (phones/activites/vehicles/etc..).  Here is our situation:

48M/42F with 3 children ages 12/16/16.  529 Plans are roughly 30k/child. 

401K/Traditional IRA Accounts:  730K
Roth: 47K
Taxable Brokerage:  445K
Portfolio: 1.222MM

Home: 500K
Mortgage: 200K

Ideally we'd like to retire at 60/55.  Our income is just over 200K but it increased the last 5 years from about 160 to 200 and likely won't increase much from here.

We struggle trying to figure out what we really will need per month 12 years from now.  Fidelity estimate seems way high to us.  We have no debt other than the home and when we retire the balance will be around 75-80K with P/I of 1.2K and taxes/insurance of 800 per month.   We should be able to have 2 relatively new vehicles so I just can't imagine our expenses being 12K/month as Fidelity's Basic Average Estimate states.  It also states in a significantly below average market we will have about 10K of income but may need 12K of expenses (using today's dollars). 

We should be able to manage our income to keep ACA Health Insurance premiums relatively low due to our brokerage account accounting for 40% of our present portfolio holdings.  When I plug in the expenses I come up with 9K/month and that includes 2K/month for travel.  Both of those figures are rounded high so actual spending should be significantly less. 

I'd love to know anyone elses experience or what they spend monthly if you are open to sharing. 

Laura33

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3930
  • Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: Real Life Retirement Expenses?
« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2024, 10:50:31 AM »
We're not quite at the RE part (though well past FI).  The thing about kid expenses is that they can last as long as you want them to -- or stop whenever you want them to.  So the first question is what do you and your spouse want? 

College:  what will your EFC be, based on your current income and the number of kids who will be in school at the same time?  This is key if you intend to FIRE before they graduate, but even if you plan to wait until the kids are out of school, your EFC will likely affect your savings/savings rate over that 8 years.  Figure out what your EFC is -- then figure out if you want to be able to contribute more if it allows your child to go to some "dream" school. 

And don't forget about the other expenses:  you'll likely continue to cover their phones/medical/car insurance until they graduate, so account for that.  What about if they want to join a fraternity/sorority?  Will you cover that?  What about things like the cost of a new laptop, travel to/from school, clothes, spring break, etc.?  Do you plan for them to cover their own incidental expenses/nights out from a part-time job, or do you plan to give them an allowance through college?  How about living expenses if they get a summer internship where they need to rent an apartment (my nephew spent last summer in San Francisco, and this summer in Manhattan!)?  What about grad school?  There is no right or wrong answer.  The only thing that matters is that you and your spouse agree, and that you account for those agreed expenses.

Also note that those expenses can extend well past college, if you'd like them to.  Some of my DD's friends couldn't get jobs in their fields after graduation and so moved home to work at 7-11 for a year until they found a job.  Most kids also don't have the cash to cover moving expenses and apartment security deposits and such.  If they move away, do you want to pay for plane tickets for them to come home for the holidays, or join you on vacation?  Again: no right or wrong answer.  Just talk through all of this stuff with your SO, repeatedly, until you're on the same page. 

And then be prepared to change your mind once you're actually in that situation.  ;-)  AMHIK.

I will say that for us, I have very much enjoyed having enough extra money to be able to fly my DD to join us on vacation without batting an eye.  The thing that I realized when she moved halfway across the country for her job was that I now need to bribe her to spend time with us instead of with her friends and activities -- and I'm realizing why, when our kids were younger, every set of grandparents did periodic big family vacations where they either rented some giant house or planned a trip in some incredibly tempting location.  ;-)  I am very much looking forward to being able to do the same, and so it is really a privilege and a pleasure to be in a situation to do so.

Oh, and that totally-independent DD has still managed to delay delay delay getting off our car insurance and cellphone plan.  ;-)  We could push harder if we wanted or needed to, but again, it's nice not having to worry about stuff like that.

secondcor521

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6015
  • Age: 56
  • Location: Boise, Idaho
  • Big cattle, no hat.
    • Age of Eon - Overwatch player videos
Re: Real Life Retirement Expenses?
« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2024, 10:52:12 AM »
I would ignore Fidelity's estimates entirely unless you gave it all of your budgetary information and adjustments; it sounds like you didn't but I can't be 100% sure.

I would ignore what anyone else spends.  Budgets vary so much by income level, family size, cost of living, taxes, and child related stuff.  The variation could easily be 500% variation from low to high.  Also, people (including me) tend to ignore parts of their spending to report lower numbers publicly - "I spend $X, but that's ignoring the new roof", "I spend $Y, but that ignores money I give my kids" "I spend $Z but I budget after taxes so those aren't included" etc.

What I would recommend is tracking your spending now, and then continue to do what you're doing - adjust that number up and down by increases and decreases in spending that (a) are large, and (b) you know will happen.  For me, who retired with kids in college, I adjusted for income taxes (from $large to $0), and college (spending came from the 529s which were not included in my FIRE stash).

The other thing you will figure out over time if you track well is your personal rate of inflation.  3% inflation over 12 years is significant enough to notice and affect your planning.

You won't get it exactly right, but with any reasonable built in margin of safety and a bit of luck, you should be fine.  Part of this is because we assume worst case and worst case hardly ever happens - you're about 95% certain to experience better than worst case.  For example, I assumed $0 income in FIRE from non-portfolio sources, but earn $XXXX and have $XXXXX in other income that I didn't plan on.  That helps even out the fact that my kids ended up going to expensive private high schools after I chose to FIRE and I still was able to afford that.

Quite honestly, I just tracked 4% of my FIRE stash compared to my current spending adjusted for FIRE and felt free to FIRE once the lines crossed.  (You'll also be able to predict your FIRE date if you monitor those two lines for a while.)  I stayed on for another two years for unrelated reasons.  Working out fine so far 9 years later.

secondcor521

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6015
  • Age: 56
  • Location: Boise, Idaho
  • Big cattle, no hat.
    • Age of Eon - Overwatch player videos
Re: Real Life Retirement Expenses?
« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2024, 11:10:00 AM »
Riffing off Laura33's comments, college costs can vary widely too.  I have three kids and my goal was to provide them with a debt free four year degree in the major and at the school of their choice.  My kids all took different paths, and the amount I spent on each on varied about 4.6x from low to high.

You can, if you want to, just say, "Hey, you each get $X for college" and address that aspect of FIRE budgeting that way.  My kids' education was important enough to me to spend whatever I needed to on their education and then let my FIRE date be the free variable.  I did FIRE before they finished college because I estimated that I had enough, but the deal I made with myself was that if they needed more I would go back to work to fund it.  Turned out I didn't need to go back and thanks to scholarships they got I ended up with extra that I'm now transferring into their Roths (new 529->Roth rollover law).

jeroly

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 804
Re: Real Life Retirement Expenses?
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2024, 07:06:49 AM »
Unless you plan major Lifestyle Changes after RE, here's a good approach...

Take your current spending (exclude savings), making sure to account for lumpy costs like replacing a car, roof on a house, college costs, etc

Add in new expenses (extra travel, extra healthcare costs, extra spending on hobbies)

Subtract disappearing expenses (commute costs like transit passes, gas, vehicle depreciation, work clothes, childcare costs, etc)

Consider adding in a future expense for end-of-life care - this is a bit controversial but unless you're currently spending $100k per person there's likely going to be a cost associated with it down the road

Gross up the final number to account for taxes.

ixtap

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4928
  • Age: 52
  • Location: SoCal
    • Our Sea Story
Re: Real Life Retirement Expenses?
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2024, 07:20:02 AM »
As your house ages, maintenance and renovations will likely increase. You may retire with new cars, but most folks I know have been able to drive into their 80s, so you need sinking funds for replacements, as well. My father ended up replacing a vehicle just to have something that was easier for him to get in and out of.

How do you want treat your children as they launch? How do you picture treating your grandchildren, if you have them?

What do you want to do with your time in retirement? My husband spends way more on himself/projects now that he has more free time.

lhamo

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3820
  • Location: Seattle
Re: Real Life Retirement Expenses?
« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2024, 09:04:10 AM »
One of the things I like about the Fidelity retirement planning tool (used to be called the Retirement Income Planner but I think they realized that RIP is not a great acronym for a late life planning tool so now it is called something else) is that the detailed budgeting section has the ability to plug in changes to expenses for various periods several years out.  It takes some time, but it is worth the effort in my book to plot out how your daily expenses will decrease as kids leave the household.  So if you have a $800/month grocery budget now for four people, you can decrease it by $100-200/month as each kid launches.  Same thing with clothes, phones, etc. 

You can also plug in things like an anticipated sale of a primary home later in life -- especially useful if you think that you will downsize once your kids launch, or if that is your plan for funding long-term care.  If the latter, don't forget to put the long term care expenses back into your budget for those later years.

The changes to the budget/annual spending won't be immediately obvious on the landing pages, but you should see the overall expenses going down (or up, if you are adding in long term care) in the final report.

I like the investment options and interface at Fidelity but even if I didn't I think I would probably keep at least some of my money there because I like this tool so much.  Haven't updated my numbers for awhile -- should probably do that soon!

larriveeman

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 12
Re: Real Life Retirement Expenses?
« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2024, 10:06:20 AM »
We spend about 55K yearly in retirement, we do have two fed pensions ( with COLA) that total 84K and the wife takes her SS at 22K, I'm waiting for FRA for mine mine will be 43K, no debt only touching IRA/TSP for roth conversions