Thank you everyone for the responses and great follow-up questions! I really appreciate you taking the time to help me evaluate if there's anything I've missed or overlooked.
The math works easily, but I completely understand your reluctance to FIRE in this current political environment. We had planned to FIRE in 2016. Then Trump was elected. We decided to wait and save more money and ended OMYing until 2019.
We would have been completely fine had we FIREd 3 years earlier. With future social security and a likely inheritance you have a robust contingency plan.
Thank you for this! The political environment now is really the only reason that I'm hesitating and even asking for a sanity check of my plan. I was so certain this was going to be the summer I finally retired, but the year has been a LOT. But hearing you went through the same hesitation in 2016 but that honestly it wouldn't have impacted your plan makes me feel better. I still don't know what the future holds, but it's so nice to have a reminder that it's likely going to be ok.
Your plan looks super solid at a glance. I'd want to know how much of your portfolio is made up of that risky single tech stock, though.
Agreed. Assuming you are properly insured and have a plan if your house burns down and your mortgage with it. For health costs please note that costs may vary by age so it could be worth seeing what it will cost you at 64. You didn't mention social security, will you get it?
As long as you don't freak out if the market drops 30% and return to work when you needn't or change your allocation you should be fine. That, or if a future version of your best life requires spending more money.
Social Security: Yes, I am SS eligible if it still exists when I am older, but I just ignored it completely for planning since I'm not certain it will still exist. I suppose it's another safety buffer that I'll have if it is around in a couple decades I don't plan to take it until my 70s, but I've been working since I was a teenager, so I have more than the 40 credits required. Currently, with $0 anticipated as my average future salary, SSA.org is showing about $3k/month ($36k/year) at my full retirement age of 67 and about $700 more per month ($44k/year) at age 70.
Insurance: Yes, I have full insurance on my home. For health insurance, I am aware the costs will rise over time. I've been checking my numbers on the ACA annually for years now, but also have always wanted to try living outside of the US and have been researching my options to do so in depth since 2018. I have a good size home, but I don't really need or want it and primarily am holding onto it for my pets. I anticipate downsizing and travelling and/or relocating (possibly abroad) once I no longer need the space.
Can't see how you lose. I'd recommend a healthy cash cushion you can use to ride out downturns without withdrawals from the stache. But you're in great shape.
Holdings: I don't hold much cash, but I also don't spend much. I have about a year's worth of expenses most of the time across my HYSA and some Money Market funds (I front-load my retirement accounts, so this number tends to dip and then rise again over the year).
Your plan looks super solid at a glance. I'd want to know how much of your portfolio is made up of that risky single tech stock, though.
The single stock is the biggest risk my portfolio has. It currently accounts for 20% of my portfolio which I've been working at for years to lower, but the stock price has had an incredible run-up that keeps going up, so even though I've been selling and re-investing for about 6 years, it's still not as low as I'd like. My target for that stock would be below 10%, but the shares I have are almost entirely gains. I know this is a risk, but selling enough to rebalance would be a huge tax hit, and I don't think doing so all at once really make sense. As I said, my plan is to spend through that stock to cover my expenses during the first part of my early retirement so that I can control the capital gains taxes I'll have to pay to a more manageable amount each year. But I fully agree this is a high concentration and not ideal.
As to freaking out and selling, I don't see that happening. I've been through a number of downturns including 2008 and everything since. I've never done that. When the news is bad, I just stop reading the news as much. I know buy and hold is the path, and it's the only thing I've ever done with my money. I was a saver even as a kid and it's always been just my default even if I didn't have a goal in mind.
I'm also fairly certain that I'll earn some money in retirement... likely though pet sitting. Once my pets are no longer with me, I'd trade my time for free to get some of that time in with pets (I already volunteer with the local shelter and foster pets for free), but I know pet sitting can also be a way to make some money. Obviously not a lot, but it's another possible buffer.
I haven't yet looked into my ACA numbers at age 64, but that is worth looking into, so thank you!
