How robust is my FI? Case study - the Netherlands

[terrable]

Hi

Working towards FI for a while now and I think I should be solid FI but I'd like to get some opinions regarding my situation. Everything below is in €. 
Age 56 / solo / no kids / can apply for early retirement (pension). Own a few rentals (appr worth 400k). Have some savings - cash 35k - 59k in equities - mortgage 15k (1.8%). My own home is worth appr 250k. As you can see a lot of my wealth is in real estate.

My employer has a great pension plan that I can start right now and provides an income of 20k/y. The last few years I've tried to live off my rentals and that works pretty well and could even add cash to my reserves. I can live off 12k/y right now (I am pretty frugal and drive an old car).
The pension I can receive covers basically more than my current expenses so I could add a bit more to my brokers account in the next few years (I love dividend stocks) and pay-off my mortgage if needed.

In the Netherlands everyone gets old age pension from the state after a certain calculated date. In my case 67. That is currently 14k and indexed so should rise with inflation. I think the same applies to my pension, but I will need to check that with the pension fund.

So when I retire right now, my income from rentals and pension should cover at least 2x my expenses and when I am 67 my pension will drop significantly but I should still receive governments pension of 14k/y. On top of that the corporate pension will be 6k/y for life so - I still should be okay. 
Sounds good right? Seems like a solid FI case.

Some financial worries I have :

- taxes and regulations: rental income in the Netherlands is taxed pretty low but that will change in a few years. Rents are regulated, price increases are yearly allowed with inflation but I don't think they will allow it with higher inflation numbers. People were already up in arms when the increase was 2.8%. Left wing opposition is immobilizing their followers and protesting all the time for lowering rents. The same opposition is calling for higher taxes on capital. This is also supported by banks and economists.
I think this will apply to everyone in this community - it is the result of the global discussion regarding 'the haves' and 'the have nots' and the widening gap.
The general trend is that we need to give money to support "the have nots" and get it from "the haves". Our government used to be financially frugal but since covid they spend like there is no tomorrow.
Taxes will be reformed in a few years, the outcome is unclear but it will definitely increase my costs and at the same time will lower rental income. 

Another worry is inflation. Gas prices are going through the roof. A couple of years of 10% inflation and a stock crash will impact me as well. Also I am not sure if these kind of inflation numbers will be indexed fully in my pension.

Housing bubble? Our real estate market is (just as the stock market) in bubble territory. Rents are still very low but once they rise more it wouldn't surprise me if we will see a similar downturn as in 2008.

Climate regulations. The government wants real estate to become more climate friendly and isolate homes and in the future install heat pumps. That is costly and they will probably force landlords to do that. My own home is isolated worse than my rentals so I will need to work on that as well.

So - I see increasing costs and lower income in the future. Am I worrying too much and should I consider myself a solid FI or should I wait a few years and build some more reserves. Looking forward to some opinions.

[Expatriate]

I’d separate the rentals from your personal home & pension to help simplify your thinking a bit.

You have a corporate pension starting today, and a government pension starting in 10 years. These are inflation indexed and jointly provide approx. a median income. That’s double what you spend today, which is probably largely discretionary as the home is paid off (but post a detailed case study to be sure). So…
- In your budget you have quite a bit of cash flow to pay for any government-mandated investment in your own home to bring it up to whatever standard they set. And that excludes any tax relief or interest-free financing l the government would likely provide for those mandated investments.
- Then on top of that you have largely paid off rentals. Most likely these will continue to provide additional income, but you can always sell or reverse mortgage  them.

I’d say no matter what happens, you’ll be fine.

[terrable]

You have a corporate pension starting today, and a government pension starting in 10 years. These are inflation indexed and jointly provide approx. a median income. That’s double what you spend today, which is probably largely discretionary as the home is paid off (but post a detailed case study to be sure). So…

I’d say no matter what happens, you’ll be fine.

Thanks - I might do a more detailed case study later but that might complicate the case more than needed. Certainly because this is an international forum.
You're right about the governments mandates regarding isolating my own home and arranging heat pumps. Low interest loans are already available and isolating is subsidized. Still adds costs. 

I am not sure if the government pension is still the same when I am 67. I find it hard to look further into the future than 5 years. Things can change very quickly in these times.
Most of the young adults in the Netherlands expect they will not enjoy the same benefits as previous generations. Our population is aging, and AOW is paid by the younger folks that still work. I don't think the current system is sustainable.

This is one of the reasons I am slightly hesitant to retire full time even though I consider myself FI.

[Car Jack]

Re-read your first 4 paragraphs and let me paraphrase here:

You have pensions and government income that is way, way, way more than what you need.

Now let me help with the second part of your first post.  Sell the rentals. 

Now you have all you need forever and no worry about what the government does with rental income. 

Easy.  Go have fun.

[terrable]

Now let me help with the second part of your first post.  Sell the rentals. 

Yes, that is indeed something I take seriously into consideration. It isn't that easy though, in the Netherlands tenants are protected and you cannot evict a tenant if you want to sell a house. You can then only sell it to investors. Also tax for investors is 10% while it is 0% for young buyers. Government is making it harder for investors to enter the market while at the same time impacting profit negatively.

Currently my strategy is when one of my tenants leave I will sell or start a temporary contract (max 2 years). I think I am a good landlord and provide a good service for a very good price, so that's not very likely to happen. Certainly not in the current market with housing shortages.

Another thing that holds me back to sell is that I like being a landlord :)

[terrable]

Adjusted my first post slightly. I didn't include the drop in corporate pension after 67 (from 20k/y to 6k/y). If government pension is still a thing at that time combined with my corporate pension it should still cover my expenses.
By retiring sooner I basically take 200k from the pension funds. Probably will invest part of that in equities.
Should certainly be possible in the next 2-3 years to avoid touching the pension (by living of the rentals) but after that costs probably have gone up significantly so I might have to rely a bit more on my pension.