Advise needed for my situation - should I FIRE now?

[FB2020]

Need thoughts on my case please:

Married, 44/46.
kid #1: age 20 - mild disabled. stays at home, does part time community college with help. gets SSI ~700 a month
kid #2: age 14: moderately disabled, goes to special school in district. should go there until he is 21 per the law. he would probably get SSI too starting when he is 18.

Live in NJ, HCOL area. but good schools

Work:
hectic, but flexible to do from home.
salary ~120K
max contribution to 401K - 18.5K.

Assets:
~1.1 M in taxable accounts
~275K in various IRAs
~40K in 401K
~250K home equity on 400K home

monthly expenses:
mortgage: 1600
prop tax: 800
utilities: 300
grocery etc.: 500
auto: 100
condo fee: 200
college: 300
misc: 300

Total: 4000+


My main concern is health insurance. I know kid would get medicaid with SSI too, but we both also have pre existing conditions. so need some insurance.
I am willing to work part time for insurance if needed.

Reason to FIRE is to stop doing hectic schedules, take it lighter/ travel more, move out of cold winters / high costs of east coast.

Any thoughts welcome!

[Kwill]

Mr Money Mustache's maths say you can retire if your monthly expenses as you've calculated them here are accurate: https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-simple-math-behind-early-retirement/

But as you say, that leaves out healthcare, which could add substantially, and you don't have that much extra per month if you are thinking of living on 4% of your assets not including home equity. And moving to a LCOL area may be more difficult if kid#2 needs to stay in this one special school for 7 more years.

Could you scale back your hours in your current position to, say, 3 or 4 days per week?

[FB2020]

Thanks for the response.

to be clear, I am happy to move now. Special schools are generally every in any district, so I'm sure he will get something similar anywhere..

So moving is not a concern from a school perspective.

[jlcnuke]

Your portfolio could generate ~$71k/year at 4% (though in your 40's you may find that you'll need to drop that down some in some years if there aren't strong market returns the first few years after you retire to ensure it would last).

Health insurance costs a married couple (with no kids) an average of over $700/month without subsidies. Withe pre-existing conditions, you'll probably be charged more, so expect $10k+ for premiums alone. If you actually use the doctor, you'll pay your out of pocket expenses on top of that which, with an average plan on the open market, will run your budget right up to that max withdrawal rate.

As such, for me I'd want a much larger buffer between expected expenses and expected income before I'd fire.