All really great feedback, thank you everyone!
It seems like you're trying to estimate this based on your current expenses but I think the real question is: What sort of life do you want to live after the kids leave the nest? Where will you live? How much travelling will you do? What sorts of activities will you engage in?
So valid! I think we're so deep in the kid-years that I don't honestly know. My DH and I would both love to take occasional collage courses, ballroom dance lessons, pottery lessons, and gardening. I doubt traveling would be a major factor for us, we enjoy it but it's just not that high on our list. Envisioning what we'll do and creating a financial plan for that would be useful for us.
My DD is now independent and living in another state. I want to see her. Ergo, I bribe her to come home by paying for her plane tickets, or by paying for a family vacation. It's not as much as, say, paying for college, but it's not insignificant, either.
All of this is, of course, 100% optional. But so is everything you're doing now. The point of FIRE is to have enough saved to live the life you want to live, and if you're the kind of parent who has devoted that much energy and money to your kids to date, you're probably going to want to continue to be able to do so. So plan for that.
Nailed it. Yes, I think we need to come up with our plan, what we envision doing and the cost associated. And then build in a buffer. I suspect I'll be the parent offering to buy a plane ticket if it helps get them home, or helping to pay their portion of a meal at a restaurant if we go out together. Not major expenses, they'll be on their own for that, but I suspect future me would like to be able to do smaller things for them.
[...] A few years ago, we saw families shift money they spent on day care to extra curriculars and FT summer camps. We have friends who are planning to help cover lodging, tuition, and living expenses while their kids are at college. It's normal.
There will always be plenty of reasons to spend money, and we as parents find it pretty easy to justify it when it comes to kids.
Yup, that's us! No more daycare needs, but expenses have shifted to activities, experiential outings, drama/music/language camps. Daycare was a need, these are just for fun and totally optional. We're content paying the expenses for now, seeing the pleasure and growth they derive from the experiences. One day they'll be done with them. But then, yes, I'm sure we'll come across another expense we can justify covering as they get older!
FWIW - we were on the path to FIRE by 2026 with 2 kids in the house but decided to shift lifestyle. FIRE by this forum's definition isn't on our radar anymore.
I think this is where we've found ourselves as well. FIRE had been a major focus for a very long time... until it wasn't. We were consistently saving ~70% of our earnings each year for over a decade, including while we had kids. I'm so grateful for all those frugal years, it is what allowed me to stop working a year ago. But now we're feeling it is time to be comfortable with some spending. And while there's not much my DH or I particularly feel a need to spend money on for ourselves, we do derive great pleasure supporting our kids as they find their passions.
You’ve made good choices so far. Try fixing the spending problems with your kids now. Learning how to stretch money is an environmental imperative, a way to improve physical health and a psychology hack for greater life satisfaction.
Fortunately I do think our kids see our family as actively frugal and intentional with money, despite us spending a boat load on activities and camps. We live in a very bougie area where many live a very bougie existence. We are the small 1970s house in a sea of new 1M+ homes, driving our 2012 van alongside their new Escalades. We are spending money on the things we find value in (experiential activities), but quite limited in those we do not. My kids are content in their hand-me-down clothes and walking to school while everyone else drives. My daughter does report sadly that she is the only middle schooler showing up without a Starbucks beverage in hand, but she knows she'll never convince me to hop on that bandwagon.
It is important to me that they are intentional with money as they get older, and I hope we've laid the groundwork for that. Of course, the things we find value in may well not be the same as what they see value in, which is something I'll need to work on to accept. That said, I might die a little inside if they pick up the morning Starbucks habit... ;-)
The only thing you can’t get back is time with your young children.
I feel this! I stopped working about a year ago because of this exact sentiment. I am so grateful for all our years for saving, getting us into a position where it was possible for me to choose to stop working! It makes those in-the-moment hard decisions of the past so very worth it (not buying the bigger or more expensive house, not getting the hot tub, using the same laptop for a decade).