Author Topic: Elastic Gap Year?  (Read 2211 times)

ObliviousRecidivist

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Elastic Gap Year?
« on: September 29, 2024, 11:02:59 PM »
53M, MFJ, kids launched, and I’m thinking of taking a “gap year” (or two) soon.

Diagnosed w/ cancer this year, and while the prognosis is good and I feel fine, it’s a reminder that you don’t have forever on this earth. I’d go back to work eventually (after perfecting hobbies, traveling etc), but would def prefer the freedom not to. Also, I’d expect the second act to be lower stress, less pay - ideally just enough to let the remaining nest egg grow.

Finances: $3.5M in savings (Roth, 401K, brokerage, T-bonds), 680K mortgage @ 1.75% on 1.2M house.

Expenses last year: 64K mortgage, 116K taxes, 200K savings, and 70K for everything else.

Q: With these numbers, would you feel confident to stop working if you might not go back?
Q: For simplicity, I’ve modeled my savings as $2.8M liquid (total minus mortgage principal). Does that sound right?
Q: What else am I missing?

Update (Nov 2024): Market keeps rising, and now we're up to $3M liquid. Not bad. Still working and saving. Next treatment doesn't start til Feb (surgery this past August .. waiting for clean-up radiation). Current plan is to wait and see how disruptive the radiation (and/or hormone treatment) is likely to be .. and take a break if it's too much.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2024, 09:11:32 PM by ObliviousRecidivist »

MDM

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Re: Elastic Gap Year?
« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2024, 03:29:51 AM »
What do you expect for expenses if not working (e.g., taxes would likely go way down)?

Kwill

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Re: Elastic Gap Year?
« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2024, 04:33:47 AM »
The spending seems too high to quit permanently, unless you were to sell the house and get something less expensive. A change to your housing situation could make you retired right away. And a condo or townhouse in a development where someone else takes care of exterior maintenance, front lawn, snow removal, etc., could be a lot easier if you want to travel.

As MDM said, it'd be easier to say if we had expected taxes after retirement. But you certainly seem like you could take a year off.

ObliviousRecidivist

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Re: Elastic Gap Year?
« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2024, 06:56:02 AM »
Thanks! and good point re taxes.

We'd be drawing first from brokerage accounts, so we're assuming we'd be taxed on 134K in cap gains (70K expenses + 64K mortgage). An online calculator estimates those at $23.5K for our area (state/local/fed).

Would it make sense to just pay off the mortgage (currently 12 yrs remaining)?

WITH the mortgage, annual expenses of $157.5K (70K + 64K mortgage + 23.5K tax) gets us to a withdrawal rate of 4.5% ...

... BUT if we paid off the mortgage (680K principal + 100K cap gains), our expenses would go to $70K + $8.7K cap gains taxes + $8,800 property tax = 87,500, which would be a 3.2% withdrawal rate on the remaining $2.7M.

Conventional wisdom is to keep it with such a low interest rate (1.75%), but I wonder if that would be different for a retired household.

MDM

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Re: Elastic Gap Year?
« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2024, 10:01:50 AM »
Thanks! and good point re taxes.

We'd be drawing first from brokerage accounts, so we're assuming we'd be taxed on 134K in cap gains (70K expenses + 64K mortgage). An online calculator estimates those at $23.5K for our area (state/local/fed).

Would it make sense to just pay off the mortgage (currently 12 yrs remaining)?

WITH the mortgage, annual expenses of $157.5K (70K + 64K mortgage + 23.5K tax) gets us to a withdrawal rate of 4.5% ...

... BUT if we paid off the mortgage (680K principal + 100K cap gains), our expenses would go to $70K + $8.7K cap gains taxes + $8,800 property tax = 87,500, which would be a 3.2% withdrawal rate on the remaining $2.7M.

Conventional wisdom is to keep it with such a low interest rate (1.75%), but I wonder if that would be different for a retired household.
When you can hold cash in an account returning ~4%, it is wiser to do so than using that cash to save 1.75% by paying off the mortgage.  Thus your idea to look at non-mortgage spending as separate from mortgage spending, and reducing your invested "denominator" by the remaining mortgage principal, is good.

$23.5K in tax on $134K withdrawal from taxable accounts seems too high, because
- Almost all that amount in qualified dividends and long term capital gains would incur 0% federal tax.
- Unless you got all the stocks you would sell for free, your actual capital gain would be less than the amount withdrawn.

You seem to be in good shape - congrats!

Laura33

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Re: Elastic Gap Year?
« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2024, 10:02:21 AM »
Conventional wisdom is to keep it with such a low interest rate (1.75%), but I wonder if that would be different for a retired household.

Generally speaking, this goes to risk reduction in retirement.  When you are in your earning years, you are your biggest asset.  If the market goes south, you can work harder, get a different job, get a raise/promotion, etc. etc. etc. to earn more to support yourself and your family.  You can afford to invest aggressively, because you are your own safety net.

When you retire, however, that giant safety net largely goes away (more or less depending on how easily you could go back to work, but since the goal is not to have to go back to work, we'll treat it as going away entirely).  And that means that now your investments (and future SS, any pensions, etc.) are now your only real safety net.  That means you can't afford to be quite so aggressive everywhere else -- your balance shifts more from seeking growth to managing the downside risks that could blow your plans out of the water.

Usually what that means is reducing the mandatory monthly nut.  And the easiest way to do that is by having any and all debt paid off.  If you think about it, having a mortgage at this stage in your life is basically using leverage to maximize growth -- you are making a bet that you will make more money in the market than you will lose via the mortgage interest.  It's basically the same as borrowing money to invest.  And leverage is fantastic for magnifying the effects of gains -- but it equally magnifies the effects of losses.  Ergo, for most folks, going into retirement without a mortgage is the best way to help protect against downside risks.

But:  Your mortgage is at 1.75%.  Holy crap.  That's basically free money.  You can get guaranteed-interest assets, like CDs and individual bonds, that will make you a lot more than that.  We currently have 6-month CDs at something like 4.5%-5%.  There is literally no risk involved in putting your money in those kinds of instruments (well, unless the banks all fail, but then we're all screwed anyway).  If I were you, I'd be putting the amount it would take to pay off the mortgage into those kinds of guaranteed-return assets.  That way, you can continue to take advantage of your ridiculously low mortgage rate for as long as it continues to be beneficial (my math says that if you have $680K in a CD returning 4.75%, that will earn you over $20K/year -- that's not insignificant!).  Then, if and when interest rates drop significantly, you can take that money and pay off the mortgage.

My advice is also shaded by your note that you might go back to work.  If you're still in your working years, then you an afford to take more risks with your investments, per the above.  I'd hate to see you lose the benefit of such a ridiculously low mortgage rate because you wanted to take a year or two away, if in the end you were going back to work. 

Finally, just focusing on a fixed withdrawal rate is overly conservative in your situation, because (1) you will be eligible for SS in less than 10 years, which would cover a chunk of your annual expenses, and (2) your mortgage will eventually be paid off no matter which option you take.  I suspect if you looked at a more detailed calculator that took those into account, you'd find that you can easily retire now and never have to work again, no matter what you do with the mortgage.  So congrats!

Villanelle

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Re: Elastic Gap Year?
« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2024, 11:00:37 AM »
It's hard to give solid advice without a sense of what your actual expenses in retirement would be.  But I'd likely cut expenses a bit and then retire.  At the very least, I'd feel fine taking a break, especially if I was pretty confident I could find some kind of work again when I wanted to return. 

And I'd absolutely keep that mortgage.  Considering you can get more than your interest rate in a CD or HYSA, it wouldn't even be a consideration to pay if off. 

clarkfan1979

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Re: Elastic Gap Year?
« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2024, 02:07:34 PM »
Thanks! and good point re taxes.

We'd be drawing first from brokerage accounts, so we're assuming we'd be taxed on 134K in cap gains (70K expenses + 64K mortgage). An online calculator estimates those at $23.5K for our area (state/local/fed).

Would it make sense to just pay off the mortgage (currently 12 yrs remaining)?

WITH the mortgage, annual expenses of $157.5K (70K + 64K mortgage + 23.5K tax) gets us to a withdrawal rate of 4.5% ...

... BUT if we paid off the mortgage (680K principal + 100K cap gains), our expenses would go to $70K + $8.7K cap gains taxes + $8,800 property tax = 87,500, which would be a 3.2% withdrawal rate on the remaining $2.7M.

Conventional wisdom is to keep it with such a low interest rate (1.75%), but I wonder if that would be different for a retired household.
When you can hold cash in an account returning ~4%, it is wiser to do so than using that cash to save 1.75% by paying off the mortgage.  Thus your idea to look at non-mortgage spending as separate from mortgage spending, and reducing your invested "denominator" by the remaining mortgage principal, is good.

$23.5K in tax on $134K withdrawal from taxable accounts seems too high, because
- Almost all that amount in qualified dividends and long term capital gains would incur 0% federal tax.
- Unless you got all the stocks you would sell for free, your actual capital gain would be less than the amount withdrawn.

You seem to be in good shape - congrats!

If you are married and pulled 134K from a brokerage account, your tax would probably be 0%.

The first 94,050 of captial gains is at 0%. Add in $29,200 for the standard deduction and we are at $123,250.

When you sell 134K of stock, as long as the basis is at least $10,750, your federal tax is at 0%. 


LuckyThirteen

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Re: Elastic Gap Year?
« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2024, 02:30:40 PM »
Expenses last year: 64K mortgage, 116K taxes, 200K savings, and 70K for everything else.

+1 on keeping the mortgage, but can you recast it down to 550 or 500k?
that would get the payments down to 42k/38k per year without taking such big bite out of your NW up front.

But still, it depends on what the expenses actually total up to.

ObliviousRecidivist

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Re: Elastic Gap Year?
« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2024, 02:51:30 PM »
Thx! That's an intg question about recasting. It seems like the analysis would be the same as paying down the whole thing ... I.e.: If I have an extra dollar, should I put it in the market and hope it grows @ 6% or into mortgage principal to save on payments @ 1.75%. (Although I say this with the humility of one who just googled "what is a mortgage recast" and relies on his spouse for most financial advice).

Expenses definitely have some give in them. We spent $15K on travel last year, and allow for plenty of meals & entertainment ... either of which can be readily tucked in as necy in lean times.

Based on clarkfan1979's tax analysis, it looks like 70K expenses + 64K mortgage gets us to about 3.8% withdrawal rate ... and we could get to 3.5% by just taking 10K out of the travel budget.

ixtap

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Re: Elastic Gap Year?
« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2024, 05:14:39 PM »
You can certainly afford to take a year or two and see how it goes. Worst case, you might need to make some small income down the road to slow the bleeding or even just for health insurance. There is no reason to think you need to earn your current salary again in the future.

lhamo

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Re: Elastic Gap Year?
« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2024, 10:02:49 AM »
Your extremely low mortgage rate means it is probably worth keeping, but I would look at how large a chunk of your spending is health insurance/health care related.  I have been living off non-retirement savings and investments since 2015 and have been on expanded Medicaid most of that time.  Not carrying a mortgage has been a key part of that system, and has saved me many thousands of dollars.  I'm in a city/state where the quality of care under Medicaid is pretty much the same as (if not better than) most ACA plans --  I actually have access to better networks of providers under Medicaid than I would under a lot of silver and bronze ACA plans. 

Malum Prohibitum

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Re: Elastic Gap Year?
« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2024, 05:16:14 AM »
I guess I am in a different camp from everybody else.

If you are working and accumulating and want to play the math - interest rate game of arbitrage on your mortgage, then fine.

But in retirement, getting rid of expenses and not having any debts or payments is nice.  As you pointed out in your first post, if you paid off the mortgage (or sold and moved to something of a lesser appraised value) you are already ready for fire at a very safe withdrawal rate from your assets.  That one move makes you financially independent and ready to retire whenever you choose to do so.

But you are talking about a gap year, not retirement.  I assume you can return to work at the same job that generated enough income to cause a six figure tax bill, save $200k, and feed that huge mortgage in addition to living expenses.  If so, then don't change anything.  Take your year off and just work that into your plans - I will be missing a year of income and my assets will decrease by x amount.  Then I will go back to work.

You can always pay off the mortgage and retire any time if you decide that your gap year is something you would like to make more or less permanent.

Rockies

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Re: Elastic Gap Year?
« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2024, 10:30:11 AM »

Expenses last year: 64K mortgage, 116K taxes, 200K savings, and 70K for everything else.


To get this correct, you had $450,000 in expenditures last year? Or am I doing the math wrong?

I was going to say you have an extreme amount of money, but if your expenditures are that high this is something  you need to look at seriously reducing.

Villanelle

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Re: Elastic Gap Year?
« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2024, 11:26:06 AM »

Expenses last year: 64K mortgage, 116K taxes, 200K savings, and 70K for everything else.


To get this correct, you had $450,000 in expenditures last year? Or am I doing the math wrong?

I was going to say you have an extreme amount of money, but if your expenditures are that high this is something you need to look at seriously reducing.

It's not really fair to count $200k in savings as an expenditure.  $250k is still quite high, but if they retire (or take a gap year), those $116k in taxes should be much lower, too.  it's still super spendy, but will probably half, or less of your $450k number if they stop working, if I'm understanding correctly.

ObliviousRecidivist

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Re: Elastic Gap Year?
« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2024, 04:57:36 PM »

Expenses last year: 64K mortgage, 116K taxes, 200K savings, and 70K for everything else.


To get this correct, you had $450,000 in expenditures last year? Or am I doing the math wrong?

I was going to say you have an extreme amount of money, but if your expenditures are that high this is something you need to look at seriously reducing.

It's not really fair to count $200k in savings as an expenditure.  $250k is still quite high, but if they retire (or take a gap year), those $116k in taxes should be much lower, too.  it's still super spendy, but will probably half, or less of your $450k number if they stop working, if I'm understanding correctly.

That's right ... 450K is all of gross earnings.  Tax (116K) is non-optional, but would be much lower in retirement (almost zero by some estimates above).  Savings (200K) is savings, not spending. For mortgage (64K), I have sufficient savings to pay it, but the interest rate is good enough (1.75%) that I'm keeping it and leaving those funds in the market. 

For the remaining 70K, there is definitely some fat that could be cut in lean times .. but I don't think it makes sense to analyze in terms of 450K spending, or even 250K.  (Of course, when we get close to pulling the trigger, I'll be kicking the tires again on tax strategy, spending reductions, mortgage etc ... and appreciate everyone's advice!)

« Last Edit: October 14, 2024, 05:39:48 PM by ObliviousRecidivist »

 

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