Author Topic: Doing it wrong?  (Read 7483 times)

baconschteam

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 88
  • Age: 35
  • Location: New Jersey
Doing it wrong?
« on: June 28, 2022, 11:30:04 AM »
Hello, like a lot of people, I'm worried about the stocks, and I'm maybe looking for a little kick in the pants, and maybe I should just stop looking at them. I'm green. This is my first real market downturn.

Background: just married, wife and I have been doing mustachianism for a few years now; got out of debt, built about $150k, saving around 60% of income.

My father passed away a couple of years ago and I inherited about $50k. Like a good mustachian, I upgraded my bicycle a little and followed my investment plan and put it all into index funds in August of 2021.

This market has me freakin'. Feeling like I've done something massively wrong. I know from everything I've read that the market will just go back up, within a few years, just stop looking and keep throwing money in with every paycheck. But, damn, it's making me feel queasy right now.

Adding to this queasy uneasiness is that I've been investing all of my wife's money too, so the weight of "what if I've been wrong, capitalism's endless growth must eventually fail if we are to survive on this planet, and maybe it's finally time" is extra. Also adding to this is that we'd like to buy a house within the next couple of years, so I've begun to hoard some cash, investing less.

So, I invested a large lump sum near the top of the market, and now that stocks are on sale I am not buying them like my mustachian brain is telling me to. I am praying the housing market crashes so that we can buy something reasonable (timing the market), while actively not participating in the thing that I can see pretty clearly is what I should be investing as much as possible while it's on sale. But, also, it seems like many now retired mustachians made out like bandits by being able to buy up some houses that were on sale between 2009-2014ish. They must have had some cash reserves to be able to do this. If I plan on buying/holding real estate as part of my portfolio, should I be preparing to be ready with some cash if there's a housing slump? Or should I just be going all into the market now, while it is in fact in a slump. If we needed a 20% down payment on a $250k house, that would take us at least a year to save up (though I know I don't necessarily need 20%).

Seeking any advice here, ask if you need more details to respond, I know that a lot if this is vague.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2022, 11:50:39 AM by baconschteam »

ATtiny85

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 960
  • Location: Midwest
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2022, 11:37:29 AM »
Well, you know the solution. Keep buying. Then buy some more.

I bought through dotcom and GFC, and still buying now.

Some people will say not to look, but that is hard. I do not look at our compilation spreadsheet during blips like this, but still check accounts regularly just to stay on top of things. I am fortunate to have been through some decent sized downturns, so I have experienced it, and most importantly, have seen how much growth I have gotten on those shares bought at the top, the bottom, and everything in between.


AlanStache

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3187
  • Age: 44
  • Location: South East Virginia
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2022, 11:48:00 AM »
Is your wife on board with investing?

If you want to maybe buy a house in the near term maybe you should start a new thread with some details in it. 
region, net worth, likely purchase price, etc. 

Yeah can say that it does probably suck more to go from 50k to 40k than from 1000k to 900k, but that is mostly just by the time you have more time in the market you probably have seen a decline or two. 

I put a lump sum in about 2 months into the covid decline and it sucked for a bit but I definitely made that back. 

baconschteam

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 88
  • Age: 35
  • Location: New Jersey
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2022, 11:59:58 AM »
Is your wife on board with investing?

Yes, she's on board and trusts me with it. We have a divide and conquer strategy with things and the investing is one of my areas.

baconschteam

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 88
  • Age: 35
  • Location: New Jersey
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2022, 12:12:37 PM »
I put a lump sum in about 2 months into the covid decline and it sucked for a bit but I definitely made that back. 

I'll also add that during the Covid mini crash I sold my car, invested all the proceeds, and then watched them grow, so I do have the principle in my mind. But I didn't have as much to lose at that time, so it felt easier. The future of America also didn't seem so bleak back then for some reason (I could expand on this at length, but thankfully, I will not).


ZMonet

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 213
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2022, 01:36:01 PM »
Go read some posts from back in 2008 on this board and Bogleheads.  It always seems bleak.  Every downturn seems like it is the end of the US empire...And one day, maybe it will be, but if that is the case you'll have bigger issues.  Keep to your plan and your future self, and wife, will thank you.

sailinlight

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 353
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #6 on: June 28, 2022, 01:41:07 PM »
I graduated college in 2006 and by 2009 started to have money to start investing. It felt pointless at the time and like I was lighting my paychecks on fire so I didn't invest as much as I could have. Looking back I do regret that..

Watchmaker

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1609
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2022, 02:07:20 PM »
Adding to this queasy uneasiness is that I've been investing all of my wife's money too, so the weight of "what if I've been wrong, capitalism's endless growth must eventually fail if we are to survive on this planet, and maybe it's finally time" is extra. Also adding to this is that we'd like to buy a house within the next couple of years, so I've begun to hoard some cash, investing less.

But I didn't have as much to lose at that time, so it felt easier. The future of America also didn't seem so bleak back then for some reason (I could expand on this at length, but thankfully, I will not).

Look at the bright side: If capitalism (or America) collapses, it won't matter one bit whether you bought on the peaks or the dips.

swashbucklinstache

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 630
  • Location: Midwest U.S.
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #8 on: June 28, 2022, 03:46:55 PM »
Is your wife on board with investing?

Yes, she's on board and trusts me with it. We have a divide and conquer strategy with things and the investing is one of my areas.
Off-topic, but commenting to make sure this isn't a permanent or 100% thing. If you predecease some education now will be worth it so she'll be able to pick up the pieces and continue on in a mmm way without having to relearn everything.

FiveSigmas

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 597
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #9 on: June 28, 2022, 03:58:21 PM »
I'll also add that during the Covid mini crash I sold my car, invested all the proceeds, and then watched them grow, so I do have the principle in my mind. But I didn't have as much to lose at that time, so it felt easier. The future of America also didn't seem so bleak back then for some reason (I could expand on this at length, but thankfully, I will not).

I don't have any advice to give, but this is very impressive. Well played!

lucenzo11

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 93
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #10 on: June 28, 2022, 05:27:08 PM »
First, I completely understand your panic as I'm going through my first major drop too, but I keep telling myself there's no reason to panic. Especially for you because you have no debt and have a good savings rate. You are in the wealth accumulation phase so if the market is down, then it's a win for you (and all of us). The market is on sale so if you have the money to invest, then you should.

As for the house, why do you want a house? Is it to live in or to rent as an investment property? Either way, I don't think trying to time the market is a good idea. Who knows what is going to happen but my personal impression is that a "crash" is not coming to the hosing market, or atleast not a major one. I do see the market cooling off a bit and I could see list prices coming down, but that's mostly to offset the higher interest rates. The actual cost of ownership might not go down anytime soon. See real estate/landlording category for more posts on this. Regardless, owning a house to live in should be more a lifestyle decision than a financial one (following the jlcollinsnh logic). If you want to live in a house, then sure, saving up for one is good. If it's to rent out, then the cost is only part of the equation as you also need to determine what you can rent if for and make sure it works financially.

I completely agree, that it would be great to wait and get a house "on sale", but it's not clear when that will happen and while you wait, there is another sale that you are actively missing out on.

Summary: If you want a house, buy a house. But if you are just trying to make the best financial decision, then start investing in the market again.

Steeze

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1205
  • Age: 36
  • Location: NYC Area of Earth
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #11 on: June 28, 2022, 06:41:10 PM »
Best thing that can happen to you is that stocks go down and stay down for a lonnng time. Bigger the dip, longer the dip, the more wealth you will have over the long haul. You want stocks down when you buy and up when you sell. When stocks are at an all time high and you are buying someone else is cashing in. At least today you aren’t getting totally worked over.

Invest how much you can afford to invest at regular intervals and do not stop until you retire. Reevaluate what that number is periodically when you get raises or windfalls.

 If you want to buy a house in X months then save enough each month to have that cash in the bank when you are ready. If you only need 5% down then don’t set aside cash like you need 20% down. Hit all of your goals. — if you want to invest and save a down payment then do that, but don’t regret it if it wasn’t optimal looking back.

Anecdotally- I paid off 100k in student loans from 2012-2016, looking back that was a bad financial decision but it was a goal and I achieved it. In 2019 I paid off my house, looking back that was not a good financial decision, but it was a goal and I achieved it. In 50 years those decisions will have costs me many $1000s, but I do not regret it. Maybe it takes me an extra year or two to retire, but that is ok, I am doing it on my terms, with low overhead, low stress.

Decide what you want, and do not regret it if it turns out to be suboptimal. Don’t bet the house if it makes you uncomfortable. Most of all, be steady and confident, someone your family can always count on. Don’t put yourself in a financial position that causes you to lose confidence in your ability, because they are depending on you to be stable. Your wife trusts you, trust yourself, live up to her belief in you.

Re-educate yourself, read the materials that gave you the confidence initially. Create a plan and stick to it. Reevaluate your risk tolerance, your need to be “all in” on every extra dollar all the time. Create an IPS, re-read it every time you are making a purchase or selling decision, and when you are changing the amount you are investing each period.

Try to relax and enjoy the ride, it is going to be bumpy for a while.

Shuchong

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 149
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #12 on: June 28, 2022, 11:46:32 PM »
Go read some posts from back in 2008 on this board and Bogleheads.  It always seems bleak.  Every downturn seems like it is the end of the US empire...And one day, maybe it will be, but if that is the case you'll have bigger issues.  Keep to your plan and your future self, and wife, will thank you.

I am doing this and finding it quite helpful.  (I was investing in 2008, but the amounts were tiny -- this downturn feels different to me because I've "lost" a few hundred thousand dollars since the recent peak).   A few threads to start with:

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=6734127

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=25126

baconschteam

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 88
  • Age: 35
  • Location: New Jersey
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #13 on: June 29, 2022, 10:20:41 AM »
Go read some posts from back in 2008 on this board and Bogleheads.  It always seems bleak.  Every downturn seems like it is the end of the US empire...And one day, maybe it will be, but if that is the case you'll have bigger issues.  Keep to your plan and your future self, and wife, will thank you.

Thank you, this is helping!

Off-topic, but commenting to make sure this isn't a permanent or 100% thing. If you predecease some education now will be worth it so she'll be able to pick up the pieces and continue on in a mmm way without having to relearn everything.

Morbid --- just married this past weekend --- but, yes, it's on the to-do list! This will go hand-in-hand with actually writing down my IPS (on the to-do list), both to strengthen my confidence in staying the course, and to serve as a literal instruction manual.

@lucenzo11 - The housing thing would be both lifestyle choice and investment. Too much to get into/explain, but you're totally right that waiting would mean actively missing out on what is currently on sale. I'll have to just figure out how to buy the house when the right one comes along.

@Steeze - In about 2018 I sold my $5k in Tesla stock to pay off my student debt, a more sure bet. Would have been better off with the debt, but I don't regret it. My wife and I just got married this weekend so I think my anxiety about the weight of investing for our future is just coming to a head along with lots of other emotions, and the way that money is sort of tied to ego adds to it. I'm not really describing what I'm thinking about perfectly here, but it'll have to do. Thanks for your advice. I'm going to write down my IPS and stick with it.

« Last Edit: June 29, 2022, 10:49:38 AM by baconschteam »

DragonSlayer

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 217
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #14 on: June 29, 2022, 12:14:55 PM »
Allow an old fart to reminisce...

I started investing in '92, at the height of the recession caused when Reganomics finally went bust. And while I wasn't investing at the time, I was nearly an adult when black Monday happened in '87, so I remember the impact well. I also remember my parents waiting in the gas lines in the 70's and the endless carpools, and the belt tightening from those years.

I've invested through '92, the dot com bust, the 2001 bust, 2008, 2020, and now this. Plus a whole lot of random market farts along the way. I was pursuing FIRE before it had a cool name. I read Your Money or Your Life in '92 or '93 and decided then and there that I would not work my whole life. I was also a devotee of the Tightwad Gazette. Good times...

Anyway, when I started investing, it was such a joy to watch my money disappear into a block hole. /s. But I kept at it. And every time the market turned around, I saw the miracle that happens. All those shares I bought when the market was crashing were still there, only now they acted as a big inflatable cushion, pushing my money higher and higher. And, sure, the cushion developed leaks over the years through various crashes, but I kept going. And going. I built a machine that works and I trust it.

Bought a house in '96 when interest rates were north of 8%, and prices were rising because we were in a fast growing area. We weren't sure if it was a good decision, if there would be a crash, etc. It was risky, but we needed a house and weren't interested in timing the market. We just bought what we could afford and left it at that.

I never stopped contributing, never changed my allocations based on fear, and never took out a loan or withdrawal. I became lean-fire in 2005 (and my max income to that point had not topped 60K), but kept working because things weren't too terrible at work. I finally decided to pack it in for good in 2012, but developed some side hustles (not from need, but desire) that happened to pay some money. So I kept investing. Still do.

And I think my biggest tip is this: Don't worry too much in the early years. I think it was fortunate that when I began investing there was no internet so you couldn't look every day. Even learning what the stock market was doing meant reading the morning paper or watching the nightly news. You had to wait for your quarterly statement to come in the mail from the brokerage to know how you were doing. That, I believe, made it much easier to train myself not to worry about it. The deluge of information we have these days is not always helpful. Back then was literally the definition of set it and forget it.

Through every downturn there have been screams of doom, and that this time is different, and that everything is imploding. And I don't deny that the US and world are at a concerning point. I wake up every day and carefully open one eye to see if the world is still standing! However, I also know that if this time really is different and the US truly goes down the drain, my investments will be the least of my problems. I can't worry about that. I can only control what I can control. And that has always been to stay the course, invest according to my risk tolerance, and live a frugal and sensible life. And vote. Anything beyond that I cannot fix, so I try not to worry.

What I'm saying is that, so far, making a plan and staying the course has worked. Will it work forever? I have no idea, but I also have no real, concrete reason to expect that it won't. Hopefully this helps a bit.

meandmyfamily

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 328
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #15 on: June 30, 2022, 10:19:12 PM »
During my first major dip in the market it really helped me to keep investing and just not look for awhile. 

Turtle

  • CM*MW 2023 Attendees
  • Pencil Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 608
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #16 on: July 01, 2022, 11:27:51 AM »
You can also try tracking by Shares Owned rather than current market value.

That will help to drive home the fact that you really are increasing your investments over time, regardless of what the market is doing shorter term.

Sandi_k

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1609
  • Location: California
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #17 on: July 01, 2022, 04:22:11 PM »
Go read some posts from back in 2008 on this board and Bogleheads.  It always seems bleak.  Every downturn seems like it is the end of the US empire...And one day, maybe it will be, but if that is the case you'll have bigger issues.  Keep to your plan and your future self, and wife, will thank you.

Agreed about reading some of the GFC posts on Bogleheads - there is one in particular, from Sheepdog, that comes to mind. He had just retired, and then just watched everything fall apart in slow motion. And he panicked.

ETA: ZMonet linked to the thread I mentioned above - great minds! The link is here:

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=25126

One thing that has been useful for me: I have an investment summary spreadsheet that gets updated once a month. So I only look at actual values of the portfolio once a month. I have a file for each calendar year, with a tab for each month - going back several years. It is amazingly helpful, because when things go down 10 or 15 or 20%, I can click back 5 months, realize the portfolio value is about the same, and then I ask myself - "Was I panicked 5 months ago? No! And you know why? Because I am PROUD at my discipline in saving diligently and CONSISTENTLY for our future."

Seeing that comparison REALLY works for me. Maybe it'll be helpful for you as well.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2022, 04:28:34 PM by Sandi_k »

ender

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7402
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #18 on: July 01, 2022, 06:13:05 PM »
How worried were you in Feb 2021?

The SP500 is the same now as it was then.

LightStache

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 763
  • Location: California
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #19 on: July 13, 2022, 07:23:30 PM »
It's a great sign that you have doubt. Way too many retail investors suffer from overconfidence bias. They'll make mistakes over and over again, never making progress, just totally blind to what they're doing. Get comfortable with your queasy doubt because it probably won't ever go away -- which is good because it serves you -- but it will quiet with each challenge that you successfully work through.

And that's what each downturn is, a challenge to make you less green, to give you some lessons, and to galvanize you each time you emerge on the other side. The good news is that the amount of your investments should grow along with your skill, not the other way around. In five short years you'll look back at your current portfolio and laugh at how worried you were about such a small dip. Imagine forward to a time when you'll have $2M invested and a 20% correction will wipe out $400K in just a few months. Right now you're training for that. Lean into all the market challenges between now and then so that you're tested and ready for the big leagues.

muskrat

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 20
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #20 on: July 16, 2022, 08:39:03 PM »
My biggest regret in my investing career is having too much cash on hand.  My second biggest investing regret is not putting all my cash to work in the 2008 downturn.  Third is trusting financial advisors.  Don't assume "stocks are on sale" right now because the market has gone down allot.  But investing at a young age is the right way to go.  As far as a house goes. I personally don't think things will get allot cheaper (it will a little) due to interest rates.  I just think the market will just get a lot slower.  You have a lot of people like me that would like to sell their house and move but can't justify the interest rate hit to get a new loan.  As I mentioned I'm not an expert in housing. If you do find a house you could use loans against your investments for the down payment.  Most firms will loan you about a third of the value of your portfolio.

Freedomin5

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6545
    • FIRE Countdown
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #21 on: July 17, 2022, 04:24:59 AM »

Dicey

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 22421
  • Age: 66
  • Location: NorCal
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #22 on: July 17, 2022, 11:29:26 PM »
But, also, it seems like many now retired mustachians made out like bandits by being able to buy up some houses that were on sale between 2009-2014ish.
Wow, this quote is pretty interesting. The people you're referring to saw an opportunity when the Real Estate market was down. Now the stock market is down (a bit).Opportunity is knocking and you're not taking advantage of it. A decade from now, will you also be jealous of the people who are making the most of this current downturn?

BTW, during the period you reference, paying cash wasn't really a thing the way it has been in the past 2-3 years.

I was going to recommend another thread, but FI5 beat me to it:

The responses in this thread may be helpful:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/what-do-you-wish-you-had-known-about-recession/?topicseen

Also, the "Top Is In" thread is invaluable for perspective and levity.

baconschteam

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 88
  • Age: 35
  • Location: New Jersey
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #23 on: July 18, 2022, 07:24:29 AM »
Thanks @Dicey for reinforcing that this is indeed a logical fallacy in my financial planning brain. Will look to Top Is In instead of Doomsday News headlines (even The Economist right now..)!

May I ask what you mean when you say that paying cash wasn't really a thing back then?

ChpBstrd

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6745
  • Location: A poor and backward Southern state known as minimum wage country
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #24 on: July 18, 2022, 07:47:56 AM »
Sounds like you are less than 10% of the way to FIRE and are experiencing the sort of stock market correction that statistically happens every 2-3 years. Congratulations then! It's better to experience a stock sale early in the accumulation process rather than late. For your sake, let's hope for a long bear market. It will speed your time to FIRE. Do some spreadsheet simulations if you have no idea what I'm talking about.

If you plan to be very wealthy someday, you'll need to understand what that looks like from the perspective of a wealthy person. Have you ever gained $50,000 one day and lost $50,000 the next day, doing absolutely nothing, just due to not-even-notable fluctuations in market prices? I have. Billionaires gain and lose billions on "good" or "bad" days, and it doesn't really matter to them. A certain insensitivity is required to be rich.

Lastly, why do you want a house in Southern California? I don't want a house in SoCal. They're ridiculously overpriced, cost a fortune in insurance and taxes, are at risk of a price implosion due to higher mortgage rates, and would be a major barrier to my goals of retiring young. All my neighbors would be consumerist workaholics who are trying to stay solvent despite those housing costs by working 70 hour weeks and neglecting their kids - bet they'd be fun to hang out with /s. If you're going to play the high salary game in SoCal, you need to stay nimble. In the event of a job change you CANNOT end up stuck in a house over an hour away from work like so many people do. As a renter, you just move down the street from your new job when your old place's lease is up.

Dicey

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 22421
  • Age: 66
  • Location: NorCal
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #25 on: July 18, 2022, 07:48:44 AM »
Thanks @Dicey for reinforcing that this is indeed a logical fallacy in my financial planning brain. Will look to Top Is In instead of Doomsday News headlines (even The Economist right now..)!

May I ask what you mean when you say that paying cash wasn't really a thing back then?
People bought homes with 20% down or less, often much less. VA loans*, 80/10/10 loans (or variations thereof), Stated Income (aka Liar's) Loans, Interest Only, Balloon Payment, and adjustable mortgages were all popular. When everything didn't stay perfectly aligned and the market tanked, those buyers tended to be the first to walk away, as they had less or nothing to lose when their homes went underwater.

Lenders imposed far stricter practices. Getting a loan became a pain in the ass. Some folks paid cash to avoid the hassle and scrutiny. As the markets heated up and competition became fierce, prices rose faster than comps and lenders wouldn't lend enough for the deal to be completed. Buyers started offering cash to get their offer accepted. I suspect a lot of cash buyers ended up getting mortgages after the fact, but it was cash that got the deal done. Interestingly,  refinancing became easier than ever, which was also an influence.

*Not saying VA buyers walked away, but sellers started turning their noses up at them because of the extra hoops involved.

There are other factors, but you get the idea. The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago. The second best time is now. Throwing shade at people for choices they made in the past isn't going to help you reach your goals.

baconschteam

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 88
  • Age: 35
  • Location: New Jersey
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #26 on: July 20, 2022, 01:12:38 PM »
Sounds like you are less than 10% of the way to FIRE and are experiencing the sort of stock market correction that statistically happens every 2-3 years.

I think that going from $80K in debt to $190k invested (just checked and my original figure of $150k was wrong, I forgot about certain funds) with a goal of close to $800k is closer to a third of the way there! But, I tend to have a rosy outlook, for better or worse. Regardless, point taken. I think I was really stressing because of the fact that I invested the largest chunk of money I've ever had in my life all at the same time near the top of the market. But I get it. The market goes down. The market going up. I'll keep investing regularly.

Lastly, why do you want a house in Southern California? I don't want a house in SoCal. They're ridiculously overpriced, cost a fortune in insurance and taxes, are at risk of a price implosion due to higher mortgage rates, and would be a major barrier to my goals of retiring young. All my neighbors would be consumerist workaholics who are trying to stay solvent despite those housing costs by working 70 hour weeks and neglecting their kids - bet they'd be fun to hang out with /s. If you're going to play the high salary game in SoCal, you need to stay nimble. In the event of a job change you CANNOT end up stuck in a house over an hour away from work like so many people do. As a renter, you just move down the street from your new job when your old place's lease is up.

Wife and I actually just moved back to NJ; for family reasons and because we'd never be able to reasonably afford a house in SoCal. Just changed my location in my profile, thanks! Not that NJ is great for real estate, but there are some areas near PA or just across the PA border that seem appealing to us. Main thing is we're trying to stick close to family. But we sure as hell are missing our CA friends and weather and mountains and general attitude lately, we're pretty torn about what we'll actually end up doing. If things really go into a recession for a while we'll just ride it out living with family and make a decision after that. We're very fortunate to be sitting out the current housing affordability crisis by staying with family for free (caretaking DW's grandmother). Sorry if this is TMI lol. (BTW when I said we were saving 50% of income or whatever, that was BEFORE we started living rent-free).

We're still California dreamin' but we don't want to rent forever.

RoyaltyMan2022

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 2
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #27 on: July 21, 2022, 08:16:45 PM »
For the house down payment you can each put $10k into iBonds and earn 9%. And gift each other $10k each too for a total of $40k. 6 month treasuries are paying 3%. With rising rates cash isn’t trash as it’s been for the last 10 plus years.

Smokystache

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 577
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #28 on: July 22, 2022, 05:57:44 AM »
I like visuals - especially ones that help me "zoom out" and take a long-term view. You may or may not find graphs like this helpful:


baconschteam

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 88
  • Age: 35
  • Location: New Jersey
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #29 on: July 22, 2022, 07:18:48 AM »
I like visuals - especially ones that help me "zoom out" and take a long-term view. You may or may not find graphs like this helpful:

Indeed, that's pretty good!

LightStache

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 763
  • Location: California
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #30 on: July 22, 2022, 10:09:40 AM »
I like visuals - especially ones that help me "zoom out" and take a long-term view. You may or may not find graphs like this helpful:

Indeed, that's pretty good!

This might help too...

On my financial summary spreadsheet I have a graph showing my NW from 2013 through 2029. That 16 year period is where I go from financial dumbass to comfortably FIREd.

The recent dip has impacted my NW and my mood. But when I look at that graph, it's a really tiny blip. That tininess is helpful to keep things in perspective.

Sandi_k

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1609
  • Location: California
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #31 on: July 23, 2022, 10:59:33 AM »
I like visuals - especially ones that help me "zoom out" and take a long-term view. You may or may not find graphs like this helpful:

Indeed, that's pretty good!

This might help too...

On my financial summary spreadsheet I have a graph showing my NW from 2013 through 2029. That 16 year period is where I go from financial dumbass to comfortably FIREd.

The recent dip has impacted my NW and my mood. But when I look at that graph, it's a really tiny blip. That tininess is helpful to keep things in perspective.

Is there an easy way to do this? I track our NW 2x per year, and would love to be able to show DH a visual!

LightStache

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 763
  • Location: California
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #32 on: July 23, 2022, 05:17:36 PM »
I like visuals - especially ones that help me "zoom out" and take a long-term view. You may or may not find graphs like this helpful:

Indeed, that's pretty good!

This might help too...

On my financial summary spreadsheet I have a graph showing my NW from 2013 through 2029. That 16 year period is where I go from financial dumbass to comfortably FIREd.

The recent dip has impacted my NW and my mood. But when I look at that graph, it's a really tiny blip. That tininess is helpful to keep things in perspective.

Is there an easy way to do this? I track our NW 2x per year, and would love to be able to show DH a visual!

Yep it's pretty easy. Many ways to skin a cat, but here's a sample similar to what I do.

Telecaster

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3576
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #33 on: July 23, 2022, 07:10:15 PM »
Remember the stock market sell-off caused by the Russian default which caused a cascading series of financial institution failures?

How about the Asian Contagion which caused the Dow to drop 7% in one day? 

No?  Neither does anybody else.  I swear on Odin's hammer that come retirement age you won't even remember this minor downturn. 

Sandi_k

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1609
  • Location: California
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #34 on: July 24, 2022, 11:11:13 AM »

Yep it's pretty easy. Many ways to skin a cat, but here's a sample similar to what I do.

Thank you! Updated for 2014-present. ;)

lutorm

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 831
  • Location: About the middle of Sweden
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #35 on: July 26, 2022, 01:02:16 AM »
Wow, according to that graph, the S&P took until 2013 to get back to the same value it had in 2001. That's pretty sobering.

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8906
  • Location: Avalon
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #36 on: July 26, 2022, 01:45:02 AM »
Wow, according to that graph, the S&P took until 2013 to get back to the same value it had in 2001. That's pretty sobering.
Yes, but think about 12 years of dividends while it was happening.

lifeisshort123

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 343
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #37 on: July 26, 2022, 05:16:27 PM »
And, keep in mind most people didn’t buy everything in 2001, it was building for them over time.  It is a lesson that it may take a while for things to get back to normal though, and I get that.

Laura33

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3514
  • Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #38 on: August 02, 2022, 12:03:00 PM »
One thing I'd suggest is to stop conflating investing and home purchase.  Sure, it's easy to look through your 20/20 hindsight at people who happened to buy into a poor housing market and sell at the peak and make a mint -- same way you can always find someone who did the same thing with stocks.  But look harder and you'll see a ton of people who bought high and sold low, too (AMHIK).  After all, the folks who were buying cheap homes during a recession were buying them from someone, right? 

IMO it's best to view a home purchase as a consumption item, rather than to focus on it as part of your investment portfolio (unless you're going to buy a multi-family unit and rent part of it -- then you can legit consider the rented area as investment).  And any good financial plan is going to find a balance between time to FIRE (investments) and consumption (lovely living situation).  So when you're thinking of all the cash you are sitting on right now because you're scared to invest it, don't ask yourself whether you should put it into the market or into a home downpayment.  Ask yourself whether you are putting your money where your plan says you should.  If not, do that. 

Then make those transfers automatic, so you don't feel like you're triggering an existential crisis every month when the question comes up again.

Tempname23

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 211
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #39 on: September 05, 2022, 11:59:17 AM »
I keep telling my 28 yr old son, you sure are lucky the market is down and you can keep buying more shares for your dollars invested.  And then, I ask for a loan because
my retirement portfolio is falling and no money is going in.

NWOutlier

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 142
  • Age: 55
  • Location: Seattle Area
Re: Doing it wrong?
« Reply #40 on: September 17, 2022, 01:42:14 PM »
I just keep going; wish I did in 2007-2009 ... buy all the way down and back up.

for now - I'm trying to put 40k/yr in the market, no mater the price... sometimes buys drop.... it's short term.  look at it 5, 10, 15, years from now - your next quest would  be, "why didn't I  buy more, sooner"

it's working for me - just sharing my experience, not financial advice.  VTI(most), VGT(minimal), Cash(even less).


Steve