Case Study: When to FIRE (Update)

[nobody]

Hello, looking for some assistance from the brilliant MMM community!

I'm planning on FIREing in April of this year, but have some serious one-more-year syndrome.  From my calculations, I believe I can FIRE now, but am nervous about the amount of buffer I should have.  Especially because I will be losing employer based health insurance, and will likely be using the ACA for health insurance in a state where Medicaid has NOT expanded.

Please set me straight.  Am I a worrywart?  Or should I drudge for one more year?

Life Situation:
Single, 36, living in the US.

Numbers are rounded and on an annual basis.

Gross Salary: 121,500

Pre-tax deductions:
401k: 19,000
HSA: 3500
Insurance (Medical & Dental): 1400

Taxes (Federal, State/Local, and FICA): 29,500

Net Income/Take Home Pay: 68,100

Expenses:
House (Insurance, Taxes, Utilities, no mortgage): 250 (this is low because of a roommate, otherwise would be about 6000, this current situation will likely be in place until 2040)
Groceries: 1960
Dining: 500
Medical/Dental (non-insurance): 2100 (co-pays, deductibles, contacts, etc.)
Car Insurance: 900
Car Maintenance/Other: 220
Gas: 800
Cell: 360
Pets: 3000 (This will be 0 when pets expire in 1-5 years)
Clothing: 130
Entertainment: 220
Gifts/Donations: 1000
Gym: 330
House Maintenance: 1500
Personal Property Tax: 130
Personal Care/Toiletries: 200
Wants/Misc: 400
Total: 14,000

Projected Post FIRE Expenses:
House (Insurance, Taxes, Utilities, no mortgage): 250 (this is low because of a roommate, otherwise would be about 6000, this current situation will likely be in place until 2040)
Groceries: 1500
Dining: 250
Medical/Dental Insurance: 4800 (through the ACA w/o subsidies)
Medical/Dental (non-insurance): 1000 (co-pays, deductibles, contacts, etc.)
Car Insurance: 450
Car Maintenance/Other: 250
Gas: 200
Cell: 360
Pets: 3000 (This will be 0 when pets expire in 1-5 years)
Clothing: 20
Entertainment: 500
Gifts/Donations: 500
Gym: 330
House Maintenance: 1500
Personal Property Tax: 130
Personal Care/Toiletries: 200
Wants/Misc: 400
Total w/o Pets: 12,640
Total w Pets: 15,640

Assets:
401k: 142k
Roth IRA: 135k
Trad IRA: 50k
Taxable: 120k
Savings/CDs: 215k (I know... this is not a good use of my little green army; because of my mismanagement/not paying attention, this got way bigger than I expected.  Currently, no longer adding to this.)
House (Paid off): 115k
Total (Invested): 447k
Total (Invested, Savings): 662k
Total (Invested, Savings, House): 777k

Liabilities: No debt.

So can I FIRE?  Or drudge on?

Thanks!

[MrThatsDifferent]

With those expenses, you can absolutely FIRE now. I’d invest at least half that cash and the live off th remaining cash while everything else continues to grow. In 10 years time your invested money would reach almost a million if not more. You’re still very young so worst case scenario you could pick up P/T work. The big issue is: what will you do with your retired life?

[Omy]

Looks pretty good to me....though I worked a few extra years to add (a lot of) buffer because of similar health insurance concerns. You can always get a job with benefits if the costs to insure get too high.

[ZMonet]

I don't think it matters much for this exercise but are you sure that you won't have pets going forward?  If there is a chance, are there other expenses you might not be capturing fully?  Other than that, you look good to go.  Congrats!

[nobody]

With those expenses, you can absolutely FIRE now. I’d invest at least half that cash and the live off th remaining cash while everything else continues to grow. In 10 years time your invested money would reach almost a million if not more. You’re still very young so worst case scenario you could pick up P/T work. The big issue is: what will you do with your retired life?

Thank you for the reply!  I typically tell people that I don't know what I want to be when I grow up.  :)  I like to learn new stuff.  I've been told not to quit my job because I'm too young to not have that mental stimulation; yet I am often bored at work, but not that I don't have enough to do, just seems like busy work.  Thankfully, the big issue isn't what to do with retired life, I'll probably have trouble sticking to something though.  I've dabbled in some things I'm interested in in my free time, such as, violin, AI/neural networks, and two Chinese dialects.  Just feel like I would have to quit/retire to really give those areas (any many others) the necessary dedication/time.

[nobody]

I don't think it matters much for this exercise but are you sure that you won't have pets going forward?  If there is a chance, are there other expenses you might not be capturing fully?  Other than that, you look good to go.  Congrats!

I appreciate the reply!  I'm pretty sure I won't have pets going forward; I do love them, but will probably get my fix by volunteering somewhere or offer free pet sitting services for various friends and family.  :)  I've been keeping track of my expenses for the past 5 years, and they have varied between ~11,000-14,500.  So I'm pretty confident with the numbers.  Either that, or I'm lucky that I haven't ran into any very big one-time expenses yet.

[blingwrx]

Your budget is very barebones, but still you have a good buffer after accounting for 3-4% withdrawal. You’ll need to move most of the savings into some stock investments though.

Odd that your grocery bill will decrease during fire. I would think it could go up as your home all the time for all your meals now.

No vacation budget? With all that free time I’d think you might want to spend a bit more on travel and entertainment/hobbies.

Planning to stay single forever? No kids in the plans?

Your budget looks fine if you plan to stay put and not travel or change anything in your social life. But Dating, future wedding, kids, international traveling can definitely test your budget.

I personally couldn’t live on that barebones of a budget and would feel more comfortable having a bit more so I could travel and enjoy some moderate purchases when I fire.

[nobody]

Your budget is very barebones, but still you have a good buffer after accounting for 3-4% withdrawal. You’ll need to move most of the savings into some stock investments though.

Odd that your grocery bill will decrease during fire. I would think it could go up as your home all the time for all your meals now.

No vacation budget? With all that free time I’d think you might want to spend a bit more on travel and entertainment/hobbies.

Planning to stay single forever? No kids in the plans?

Your budget looks fine if you plan to stay put and not travel or change anything in your social life. But Dating, future wedding, kids, international traveling can definitely test your budget.

I personally couldn’t live on that barebones of a budget and would feel more comfortable having a bit more so I could travel and enjoy some moderate purchases when I fire.

Thanks for the response, blingwrx!

Agreed that I will need to move some savings in stock investments.  I guess I'm waiting for a ~20% correction?  The all time highs give me the heebie-jeebies.

Good eye on the grocery bill.  I expect it to decrease because I will have more time to manage food, cut down on waste and overeating. LOL.

For vacations, I plan to do some "travel hacking" to get costs down.  I have done 6-8 day vacations in LA, NYC, and DC for $400 - $600.  As far as hobbies, they are free or very close to it.

Definitely no kids, and no wedding.

Perhaps some of the 3k pet budget will go towards international traveling when they have expired.

[whywork]

Your budget kind of shocks me. You are a true mustachian. I have this kind of budget in dream and planning but don't have the courage to test it in real.

I hope these are real numbers that you tracked via mint. You mentioned about the 600-800 vacation but is it covered in your line items? What about basic shopping which includes clothes, shoes, stuff bought from amazon etc..? Also I generally add a 200$ per month for any unforseen things (taxes, one time furniture, parking tickets, unexpected expenses)

Let's say we add that 200 plus another 200 for shopping, you are looking at 20k per year which needs 600k invested at 3.3% safe WR. So still looks good. I would just add some more safety net (may another year of work) as it is a long retirement and as market is high now

[nobody]

Your budget kind of shocks me. You are a true mustachian. I have this kind of budget in dream and planning but don't have the courage to test it in real.

I hope these are real numbers that you tracked via mint. You mentioned about the 600-800 vacation but is it covered in your line items? What about basic shopping which includes clothes, shoes, stuff bought from amazon etc..? Also I generally add a 200$ per month for any unforseen things (taxes, one time furniture, parking tickets, unexpected expenses)

Let's say we add that 200 plus another 200 for shopping, you are looking at 20k per year which needs 600k invested at 3.3% safe WR. So still looks good. I would just add some more safety net (may another year of work) as it is a long retirement and as market is high now

Thanks for the feedback, whywork!  Also, I appreciate the "true mustachian" complement.  *blush*  :)  Although, there are some things listed in my "Expenses" section that would probably make me more like a "faux mustachian".  I would think spending 3k on pets is a hair-on-fire situation.  In previous years, it was not that bad, probably averaged about 1k, but I have a fur baby that is in full on geriatric mode, hence the cost.  Plus, having a roommate that pays for the majority of the ~$6000/year house related expenses really, really helps.

The numbers in the "Expenses" section are real numbers rounded to the nearest ten for the year of 2019; not tracked via mint, but a spreadsheet that I've used for going on 6 years.

In 2019 I did not take a vacation, so it wasn't covered in the "Expenses" portion, although I probably should add one to "Projected Post FIRE Expenses" section.  Thank you for that.

Agreed with having a fund for unforeseen expenses.  As far as basic shopping, that is included in the various categories in the "Expenses" portion.

[fuzzy math]

One warning: if your roommate moves out will you be able to afford to float the$$ til so,Rome else moves in?

One suggestion: when it is new roommate time get one that has a pet. Your pet costs will be $0, you get to enjoy the pet and you can charge more rent to them.

[nobody]

One warning: if your roommate moves out will you be able to afford to float the$$ til so,Rome else moves in?

One suggestion: when it is new roommate time get one that has a pet. Your pet costs will be $0, you get to enjoy the pet and you can charge more rent to them.

Thanks for the reply and suggestion, fuzzy math!  High likelihood that the roommate situation will be in place until 2040.  Hopefully, in 20 years time, the US will get things together and healthcare will be a human right.  Of which, I would think/hope that means my expenses would go down to put towards housing related expenses, if needed.

Great suggestion on getting a roommate with a pet.  Love that idea! 

[marty998]

How can you be so sure they will be with you for 20 years? You're assuming your circumstances don't change at all in 2 decades (find a partner, have kids etc etc) and theirs don't change either!

What are the chances of that?

[mjr]

You want to lock in living on $15k a year for the rest of your life  ?  That's also assuming nothing goes wrong and that your tastes/desires/situation/etc don't change.

I think that's incredibly risky.  You earn a decent salary.   You want to take a break or change your workplace/career, then of course you should do that, but you're sailing too close to the wind to give it away now. 

[nobody]

How can you be so sure they will be with you for 20 years? You're assuming your circumstances don't change at all in 2 decades (find a partner, have kids etc etc) and theirs don't change either!

What are the chances of that?

Hi marty998, thanks for the response!

I can't be so sure they will be with me for 20 more years, although, this has been the arrangement for about 10 years.  Just a quick Google, the average marriage in the United States lasts for 8 years, so my roommate situation has better chances/odds than the average marriage?  Of which, probably better chances than a married couple that FIREs together?  Although, FIREed married couples may have a better than average longevity.

Nothing is for certain.

I know this sounds very atypical, but I do think the chances are fairly high.

Although, you do have a point, to be on the safe side, when someone decides to FIRE, he/she should consider what it would look like if he/she were going it alone, whether it be a roommate, a couple, or otherwise.

[nobody]

You want to lock in living on $15k a year for the rest of your life  ?  That's also assuming nothing goes wrong and that your tastes/desires/situation/etc don't change.

I think that's incredibly risky.  You earn a decent salary.   You want to take a break or change your workplace/career, then of course you should do that, but you're sailing too close to the wind to give it away now.

Thanks for reading and responding, mjr!

I wouldn't mind locking in 15k for life, with the following conditions: when the pets have expired, that's about 3k extra a year, and if my state ever expands Medicaid, that would be another ~4800 for wiggle room!  Or really to save/invest when my housing situation changes in 20 years, and the cost would probably be 3k-6k instead of the $250 now.

The second condition is a very big if.

I do feel that it is a bit risky, and I'm currently leaning towards drudging along for another year.

[RWTL]

I'm in.  I'll follow along.

[freya]

I would bet on your expenses going up in future.  You could decide to start a family, run into some medical expenses, decide you want pets after all, take a risk on starting a business, get tired of the roommate situation etc.  This is a seriously bare-bones budget.  It depends on how tolerable your job is.  If you're absolutely sick of it and desperate to quit now, you are safe to do so at the moment.   

But here's the thing:  I would bet that your earnings won't be zero going forward.  You're 36, highly intelligent and skilled, and with a lot of interests.  You could think of this not as retirement, but as a switch from a salaried job to an independent exploration of new ways to earn a living, with plenty of time to do so given your frugal ways and sufficient savings pot.  I would personally want a bit more in the kitty (closer to $800K) because of the uncertainty in where the markets might be headed in the next couple of years, but that's a personal choice.

And yes, you have an awful lot of cash.  You should probably limit it to 5 years expenses, or 20-25% of your total liquid savings.  I know some people prefer near zero, but I'm more inclined to the 20% figure.  I happen to like cash (makes for great rebalancing opportunities and much easier to ride out stock market corrections without having to sell assets that have dropped in value) but it is a drag on returns that you have to watch out for.

[ontheway2]

Although your expenses are only 15k/yr, I don't really see retiring now as locking in15k/yr. With your assets, if you invest more of the cash, you are on track for more of a 25k spend. With not spending that much towards the beginning of retirement, you could easily double your spend later if the need arises.

[Hirondelle]

Although your expenses are only 15k/yr, I don't really see retiring now as locking in15k/yr. With your assets, if you invest more of the cash, you are on track for more of a 25k spend. With not spending that much towards the beginning of retirement, you could easily double your spend later if the need arises.

This ^^

Not sure why everyone is focussing on 'settling on $15k for life', when OP actually already  has $600k+ which is closer to $25k/year and a 67% potential safe increase in spending for the OP (close to 100% increase for w/o pets budget and still within a 4% SWR in case the roommate leaves).

If OP manages to live at least another 5 years on set budget and invests most of the cash, their stash is only likely to grow further and will allow for increased spending later in life when wanted/needed.

[Much Fishing to Do]

Sometimes when I see someone with expenses so low the numbers don't up (their annual savings should mean a much higher net worth at their age, which just generally tells me the minimalist budget is fairly new to them and so not truly tested yet).  But yours seems to be about right, so I'm guessing you have a 10 year track record of expenses this low and so 'know' you are happy with your budget and can stick to it?  If so you're more than set IMO. 

The savings percentage vs. investments does seem wastefully high, maybe think about investing half of it knowing the other half is still many years of risk free living expenses.  The additional growth over time should more than take care of unexpected expenses.

[nobody]

I would bet on your expenses going up in future.  You could decide to start a family, run into some medical expenses, decide you want pets after all, take a risk on starting a business, get tired of the roommate situation etc.  This is a seriously bare-bones budget.  It depends on how tolerable your job is.  If you're absolutely sick of it and desperate to quit now, you are safe to do so at the moment.   

But here's the thing:  I would bet that your earnings won't be zero going forward.  You're 36, highly intelligent and skilled, and with a lot of interests.  You could think of this not as retirement, but as a switch from a salaried job to an independent exploration of new ways to earn a living, with plenty of time to do so given your frugal ways and sufficient savings pot.  I would personally want a bit more in the kitty (closer to $800K) because of the uncertainty in where the markets might be headed in the next couple of years, but that's a personal choice.

And yes, you have an awful lot of cash.  You should probably limit it to 5 years expenses, or 20-25% of your total liquid savings.  I know some people prefer near zero, but I'm more inclined to the 20% figure.  I happen to like cash (makes for great rebalancing opportunities and much easier to ride out stock market corrections without having to sell assets that have dropped in value) but it is a drag on returns that you have to watch out for.

Hi freya!  Thank you for the response!

I agree that my expenses have the potential of going up, but certainly not because of kids; have been certain about not wanting any for, believe it or not, at least 23 years of my life thus far.  I would slightly disagree with the bare bones budget, mainly because of the 3k, or a little over 20% of my 2019 expenditures on pets.  Having pets is definitely a luxury.

I am pretty sick of my job, having to adhere to a schedule, meeting deadlines, etc.

When FIREed, I would hope my earnings will not be zero, but certainly would like the option of not having to worry about them being zero.

Agreed with the large percentage of savings.  I really wish I paid more attention to it.  Now I'm hoping for a market correction soon, and plan to invest about half.

[nobody]

Although your expenses are only 15k/yr, I don't really see retiring now as locking in15k/yr. With your assets, if you invest more of the cash, you are on track for more of a 25k spend. With not spending that much towards the beginning of retirement, you could easily double your spend later if the need arises.

Thanks for responding, ontheway2!  I agree, that the math on the 4% rule works out to about that with the conditions you have stated.  I guess the biggest issue is a mental hang up on my part.  Especially, when factoring big unknowns like healthcare/health insurance.

[nobody]

Sometimes when I see someone with expenses so low the numbers don't up (their annual savings should mean a much higher net worth at their age, which just generally tells me the minimalist budget is fairly new to them and so not truly tested yet).  But yours seems to be about right, so I'm guessing you have a 10 year track record of expenses this low and so 'know' you are happy with your budget and can stick to it?  If so you're more than set IMO. 

The savings percentage vs. investments does seem wastefully high, maybe think about investing half of it knowing the other half is still many years of risk free living expenses.  The additional growth over time should more than take care of unexpected expenses.

Thank you for the analysis, Much Fishing to Do!

I've only been keeping track of my expenses for, going on 6 years, and it has been fairly consistent each year without making a concerted effort.    One thing that is missing from, I guess it would go in the assets section, is a paid off house.  I didn't mean to leave it off.  So to add to your perceptiveness on my numbers, I paid ~115k for the house, and it's now worth ~125k.  So yes, you are absolutely correct that I am happy with my budget and can stick to it.

Thank you for the vote on confidence, that I'm more than set!  Hopefully, I can get over my mental hump soon, and feel the same way.

Agreed that my savings to investment ratio is wastefully high.  The (current) high market scares me, and I am very much hoping for a correction soon before dumping about half of the savings in the market.

[deborah]

Some years ago, I retired with a similar spending history to you. I was afraid that my expenses would go up in retirement. Instead, they went down. The only thing I'd be a bit cautious about is how much maintenance you might need to pay for your house, car... in the longer term. These are pretty lumpy expenses, and don't always happen within any expenditure tracking period.

[nobody]

First of all, thank you to all that have taken the time out to read, and especially respond to my case study.

I know it has been a while since I've responded (I've been mentally checked out for a while).

I agree with deborah on lumpy expenses; the current/future pet expense can go towards that.  I do not plan on having any more pets after the last one meets her mortal end, due to difficulties for extended hiking trips, leaving for a few days, etc.  So the pet expenses can go towards things like car and house repairs.

When I initially posted the case study, it was about a couple of months before the pandemic.  I was teetering then on whether to call it quits at work or drudge on.  I decided to drudge on after hearing about a pandemic.  So here I am, teetering again.  Before I was drudging along at work, now I think it's more of a dead woman walking situation.  My productivity level has waned drastically, possibly due to a mid-life crisis/burnout.

If I were to take all of the emotion out of it and look purely at the numbers, it would be more advantageous to pull the plug on 4/8/2021.  By then, I could, for 2021, max out a 401k, trad IRA, and HSA to take full advantage of tax deductions for those accounts, and have a MAGI to take full advantage of ACA subsidies.  Like probably a lot of Mustachians in the United States, health insurance is (still) a concern. 

Keep going like a zombie?  Or pretty much quit now and sleep for a month?

Here are the updated numbers/case study.  The Expense, and Projected Post-FIRE Expenses sections have not changed.

Life Situation:
Single, 37, living in the US.

Numbers are rounded and on an annual basis.

Gross Salary: 125,000

Pre-tax deductions:
401k: 19,500
HSA: 3550
Insurance (Medical & Dental): 1450

Taxes (Federal, State/Local, and FICA): 30,000

Net Income/Take Home Pay: 70,500

Expenses:
House (Insurance, Taxes, Utilities, no mortgage): 250 (this is low because of a roommate, otherwise would be about 6000, this current situation will likely be in place until 2040)
Groceries: 1960
Dining: 500
Medical/Dental (non-insurance): 2100 (co-pays, deductibles, contacts, etc.)
Car Insurance: 900
Car Maintenance/Other: 220
Gas: 800
Cell: 360
Pets: 3000 (This will be 0 when pets expire in 1-5 years)
Clothing: 130
Entertainment: 220
Gifts/Donations: 1000
Gym: 330
House Maintenance: 1500
Personal Property Tax: 130
Personal Care/Toiletries: 200
Wants/Misc: 400
Total: 14,000

Projected Post-FIRE Expenses:
House (Insurance, Taxes, Utilities, no mortgage): 250 (this is low because of a roommate, otherwise would be about 6000, this current situation will likely be in place until 2040)
Groceries: 1500
Dining: 250
Medical/Dental Insurance: 4800 (through the ACA w/o subsidies)
Medical/Dental (non-insurance): 1000 (co-pays, deductibles, contacts, etc.)
Car Insurance: 450
Car Maintenance/Other: 250
Gas: 200
Cell: 360
Pets: 3000 (This will be 0 when pets expire in 1-5 years)
Clothing: 20
Entertainment: 500
Gifts/Donations: 500
Gym: 330
House Maintenance: 1500
Personal Property Tax: 130
Personal Care/Toiletries: 200
Wants/Misc: 400
Total w/o Pets: 12,640
Total w Pets: 15,640

Assets:
401k: 161k
Roth IRA: 135k
Trad IRA: 50k
Taxable: 199k
Savings/CDs: 170k (I know... this is not a good use of my little green army; because of my mismanagement/not paying attention, this got way bigger than I expected.  Currently, no longer adding to this.)
House (Paid off): 115k
Total (Invested): 545k
Total (Invested, Savings): 715k
Total (Invested, Savings, House): 830k

Liabilities: No debt.

[Nateson]

Hey there,

Wow! You're doing great!

If I were you, I would give my two weeks' notice tomorrow. Relative to your annual expenses, you have a fortune saved. And you have a paid off home! I think it's really important to realize that you can't plan for every outcome, and there is always going to be a 'better' time to jump ship. The next bonus, the next vacation pay out, the next tax maximization strategy.

I'd go for it if I were you. Hell, I would've gone for it a few hundred thousand ago. Have faith in your future self to deal with any unforeseen outcomes, because you're going to have some either way.

Good luck! Also, happy birthday somewhere between now and your first post!

[nobody]

Hey there,

Wow! You're doing great!

If I were you, I would give my two weeks' notice tomorrow. Relative to your annual expenses, you have a fortune saved. And you have a paid off home! I think it's really important to realize that you can't plan for every outcome, and there is always going to be a 'better' time to jump ship. The next bonus, the next vacation pay out, the next tax maximization strategy.

I'd go for it if I were you. Hell, I would've gone for it a few hundred thousand ago. Have faith in your future self to deal with any unforeseen outcomes, because you're going to have some either way.

Good luck! Also, happy birthday somewhere between now and your first post!

I appreciate your response, Nateson!  You make some good points.  I agree that one can't plan for every outcome, and there is always going to be a 'better' time to jump ship.  I guess, at the end of the day, I have a head and heart conflict.  Time to rip off the band-aid.  Also, thank you for the "happy birthday"!  :)

[ericrugiero]

Running some quick numbers you seem to be ultra safe if you plan to keep your expenses where they are. 

I personally would probably keep 2 years expenses ($30,000) in cash and invest the rest ($685,000).

Per the 4% rule you COULD spend $27,000/year from that $685,000. 
If you maintain the $15K spend, that is a 2.2% spending rate not even counting the cash which is EXTREMELY conservative. 

As others have pointed out in the past, the biggest risk for a low spend and relatively low investment balance FIRE is a big one time expense.  A $100,000 expense is a lot bigger percent of your stache than someone else with a $2million stache.  But, you are at such a low withdraw rate that you seem pretty safe from that risk (a $100,000 withdraw still leaves you at a measly 2.6% spending rate). 

Also, once you reach social security age, that will probably cover your low expenses so you will most likely end up with WAY more money than you need.  The only reason I can see to keep working is if you think you might want to spend quite a bit more money in the future.  Even then, you could take your time finding something you enjoy rather than working a job you hate. 

edit: You are also set up to EASILY be able to convert your 401K to roth after retirement while staying below the income limits to pay zero taxes. 

[nobody]

The only reason I can see to keep working is if you think you might want to spend quite a bit more money in the future.

Thank you so much for your reply, ericrugiero! 

I think the likelihood of me wanting to spend more is less than needing to spend more in the future; whether it be a surprise health issue, leaky roof, etc.

I do agree that I should invest way more cash.  Currently, I'm DCA (dollar cost averaging) at "normal" levels, about 1k/week.  During the downturn, between March-May, I bumped that up to about 4k/week.  I have since went back to "normal" levels.  My plan is to continue with that strategy until I have less than 50k in cash and make use of CDs and/or bank account churning as appropriate.

Also, thank you for the tax tip, will definitely make use of that when the time comes.

[zolotiyeruki]

At $1k/week, it'll take you three years to invest all that cash.  I'd stick with the $4k/week.  That way you can quit thinking about it earlier as well :)

It sounds like your job is a huge drag.  If you're concerned about having enough for some unexpected expense, could you look for a different, more stimulating job that you could work at for a year or two?

[nobody]

Again, thank you to all that have read, and especially, replied.

I have decided, instead of hitting my "engineered" exit date to maximize tax advantaged accounts, ACA subsidy, etc, I'm setting my last day to be 9/10/2020.  I don't think I'll be able to mentally make it to April of next year.

[former player]

Congratulations, I think that's a great decision for you.

[Feivel2000]

Hi,

my guess would be, that $33 MISC per month and $20 for cloths per YEAR are not very realistic numbers. That's less than a jeans per year.
You have an additional budget for entertainment and the gym, so maybe you are that frugal. Fascinating.

Even if not, you've a lot of room to grow the budget, if needed.

Maybe you could write a journal? I would follow your journal :-)

[nobody]

Congratulations, I think that's a great decision for you.

Thanks, former player!  I hope so, I'm excited and nervous at the same time.

Hi,

my guess would be, that $33 MISC per month and $20 for cloths per YEAR are not very realistic numbers. That's less than a jeans per year.
You have an additional budget for entertainment and the gym, so maybe you are that frugal. Fascinating.

Even if not, you've a lot of room to grow the budget, if needed.

Maybe you could write a journal? I would follow your journal :-)

Thanks for the reply, Feivel2000!  As far as clothing goes, sadly, I probably have enough clothes to last me a life time.  I still have a shirt I use to bum around the house in that's 24 years old.  Also, I use to do a lot of long distance running, so I have several pairs of running shoes that have 800+ miles on them that I still use.

I have been keeping track of my expenses for going on 6 years, and has varied between $9831 - $14543 per year.

Ha!  I'll think about the journal.  :)

[MonkeyJenga]

Good luck with quitting! Glad you made the decision. We have similar spending and asset levels, except I FIRE'd $200k ago. :P

You're going to feel so much better once you're out of this job.

[FIFoFum]

Congrats on setting a date! You seem like a good candidate for a true Lean FIRE or picking up other work on/off in the future based on opportunities and whether you feel like it.

My two big concerns have already been mentioned:

Health insurance - we have no way to know how this will turn out. It may get better in your favor or it may get far worse - to the point of needing to take a job with health insurance bens or move to another state (and giving up your low housing costs in process). Are you willing to be flexible enough for these? [Personally, it's so uncertain, I think everyone has to accept SOME risk on this. Just make peace with what risk you are taking.]

Ignoring expensive lumpy expenses - you don't need a new roof very often or to replace a car or socks. But are you including estimates for this? On such a low budget, your 5-10 year back data may be missing this.

Beyond that, you don't sound psychologically ready to move from accumulation to withdrawal. This is so common and the root of a lot of OMY. ER and letting passive income support you (and grow at least to self-replenish) involves a certain amount of risk tolerance to be in the market and to tolerate the various corrections that happen all the time (even during boom periods).

Your comments about fear of when to put your cash in the market now is how you feel. I'm not telling you what to do or even worse that you don't feel apprehension! Instead, I'd suggest playing with some personal risk assessment tools to get a sense of what point of market movement will stress you & how you will respond to that. This is part of planning in setting a date that I think a lot of people overlook, but those of us on the other side of FIRE recognize is part of the equation (and a surprising shock for those who weren't prepared to deal with the feelings of it all).

[nobody]

Good luck with quitting! Glad you made the decision. We have similar spending and asset levels, except I FIRE'd $200k ago. :P

You're going to feel so much better once you're out of this job.

Thanks, MonkeyJenga!  Your similar spending and asset levels makes me feel a bit better.

Congrats on setting a date! You seem like a good candidate for a true Lean FIRE or picking up other work on/off in the future based on opportunities and whether you feel like it.

My two big concerns have already been mentioned:

Health insurance - we have no way to know how this will turn out. It may get better in your favor or it may get far worse - to the point of needing to take a job with health insurance bens or move to another state (and giving up your low housing costs in process). Are you willing to be flexible enough for these? [Personally, it's so uncertain, I think everyone has to accept SOME risk on this. Just make peace with what risk you are taking.]

Ignoring expensive lumpy expenses - you don't need a new roof very often or to replace a car or socks. But are you including estimates for this? On such a low budget, your 5-10 year back data may be missing this.

Beyond that, you don't sound psychologically ready to move from accumulation to withdrawal. This is so common and the root of a lot of OMY. ER and letting passive income support you (and grow at least to self-replenish) involves a certain amount of risk tolerance to be in the market and to tolerate the various corrections that happen all the time (even during boom periods).

Your comments about fear of when to put your cash in the market now is how you feel. I'm not telling you what to do or even worse that you don't feel apprehension! Instead, I'd suggest playing with some personal risk assessment tools to get a sense of what point of market movement will stress you & how you will respond to that. This is part of planning in setting a date that I think a lot of people overlook, but those of us on the other side of FIRE recognize is part of the equation (and a surprising shock for those who weren't prepared to deal with the feelings of it all).

I really appreciate the assessment, FIFoFum!

Health insurance - Agreed that health insurance is uncertain as heck.  If I really had to, yes, I would get another job.  For now, the plan is to ride out COBRA when I quit, and use short-term health insurance, if needed, until 12/31/2020.  For 2021 (and beyond, unless there's something better), try to generate just enough income by using 401k to Roth conversion, and/or other methods, to meet the MAGI for a full ACA subsidy.  If successful, that should save about $4500/year off of my Projected Post-FIRE Expenses.

Lumpy expenses - I'm not sure if this is enough, but $1500 for House Maintenance in the Projected Post-FIRE Expenses section is reserved for lumpy expenses for the house.  For the past 4 out of 5 years, that category only amounted to a few hundred dollars on average; one year it was ~$3500.  I don't have a car replacement fund.  I have an 8 year old car with about 70k miles, I hope it lasts at least another decade.  So maybe need to budget ~$700/year for this.

You are correct, I'm not 100% psychologically ready.

You make some good points about risk assessment and gauging stress, will contemplate and do some digging on that.  Currently, I keep plugging along with my regular contributions and bump them up some when the market heads south, but I haven't thought through game plan(s) on that for post-FIRE.