Author Topic: Case Study - What would you do in my shoes? When to take a leap?  (Read 1883 times)

DataGeek56

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Case Study - What would you do in my shoes? When to take a leap?
« on: February 03, 2023, 01:31:40 AM »
Hey moustachians! I have been reading the forum for 5+ years now but first time poster.

I am from Europe and I know most case studies are in $ and related to US. However numbers are numbers so hopefully you can help me decide what to do.

Goal: Want to enjoy life, travel, spend time with my kid! e.g. stop working a corporate job and only have a side hustle of 20 or so hours per week

Life Situation: 35M, wife is also 35, our child is 3.
My Job: 33K EUR net + another 5K EUR bonus per year = 38K total
Wife: 21KEUR net + another 2.5K EUR bonus per year = 23.5K total
My Side Hustle (started 3 years ago) - currently sit at around 7.5K-10K NET per month. 20 hours per week.

Current expenses:
Rent - 750 EUR
Utilities - 150 EUR
Food - 500EUR
Going Out - 200 EUR
Random child costs - 200 EUR
Clothes/etc - 100 EUR
Phone/internet - paid by employer
Travel - 700 EUR per month
Total: around 2600 EUR per month (31.2K EUR per year)

Total cost in coming years - 3500 EUR per month due to increase in child cost and more travel planned
Therefore need around 1M EUR to early retire. However.... we want to buy a house over the next 2-3 years to live in. Cost around 400K EUR.

Assets:
Apartment that is currently being built - 240K EUR (paid off but is too small for us to live in once done). It was more of an investment.
Brokerage accounts - 253K
Cash - 75K
Total - 568K

No debts

Question :I want to retire from corporate and only do my side hustle. When will you do this if in my shoes? Keeping in mind that my wife wants to retire at 40 if possible.
However I am not sure when to make the switch because:
- my current job is not very stressful and I work from home
- my income will drop by 3200 EUR per month
- my expenses will increase by 800 EUR per month (I will need to pay more taxes/retirement on side hustle income, phone, insurance, etc)
- Therefore a total drop of income of 4K EUR per month
- In addition while the side hustle income is great it can disappear overnight since it is internet based depending on things outside of my control


Option 1: Leave job mid/end of 2023 and "only" continue saving 6K to 8K per month. Knowing that side hustle is not guaranteed forever. At this rate it should take me 5-7 years to get to 1M. Then focus on paying off the house
Option 2 : Push for 3 more years to get. At this point I should be around 900K EUR. Then stop full time job and use side hustle money to pay off house over the coming years.
Option 3 : something else?


I will really appreciate your perspective and wise words


« Last Edit: February 03, 2023, 01:33:22 AM by DataGeek56 »

jeroly

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Re: Case Study - What would you do in my shoes? When to take a leap?
« Reply #1 on: February 03, 2023, 03:31:49 AM »
If you don’t plan to live in the apartment I’d sell it asap and invest the proceeds. Otherwise, even if you continue working and saving $100-130k/yr, I’m not sure you can get to an inflation adjusted $40k/yr spend (remember that’ll probably be about $50k/yr by then so you’ll need $1.25mm) by 40.

If the retire-by-40 goal is paramount, keep the day job and max out savings for another five years. If you’re willing to sacrifice full FIRE at 40 in exchange for your internet-based version of barista FIRE, then go for it.

If you also want to get a $400k house, you’ll either need good market returns (possible but far from guaranteed) or to put off FIRE past 40.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2023, 03:35:02 AM by jeroly »

DataGeek56

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Re: Case Study - What would you do in my shoes? When to take a leap?
« Reply #2 on: February 03, 2023, 05:41:38 AM »
Thanks a lot for your thoughts.
We are also thinking of selling the apartment. I cannot sell it at the moment because:
- We expect the price to increase with 10-15% in 2024 when it is ready. Of course if there is a full on recession...
- Due to local tax laws, if we sell it before 2025, we will need to pay 6% tax on it (tax free capital gains from 2025).
However we will definitely sell in 2025.

Good point on the inflation adjustment. I haven't though about this. Thanks for reminding me.

I do not really plan to fully retire at 40. I plan to do something on the side until at least 50-55. If not this side hustle, something else for sure. I do not have enough hobbies/interests/friends to fill my time and would rather put some work towards a better lifestyle for the family/son education/inheritance/etc.

Internet version of Barista Fire describes what I want to do at 100%.


If you don’t plan to live in the apartment I’d sell it asap and invest the proceeds. Otherwise, even if you continue working and saving $100-130k/yr, I’m not sure you can get to an inflation adjusted $40k/yr spend (remember that’ll probably be about $50k/yr by then so you’ll need $1.25mm) by 40.

If the retire-by-40 goal is paramount, keep the day job and max out savings for another five years. If you’re willing to sacrifice full FIRE at 40 in exchange for your internet-based version of barista FIRE, then go for it.

If you also want to get a $400k house, you’ll either need good market returns (possible but far from guaranteed) or to put off FIRE past 40.

Laura33

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Re: Case Study - What would you do in my shoes? When to take a leap?
« Reply #3 on: February 03, 2023, 08:58:24 AM »
Wait, so you're making 3x as much working 20 hrs/week on your side hustle as you are working your 40-hr/wk primary job?  Basic math says drop the day job, and if you're worried about loss of income, work a few more hours on your side hustle to see if you can offset the loss.

How much of your concern over the instability of your side hustle $ is real, and how much is just general fretting?  IOW, are you making a lot of $$ selling one particular thing that is a fad that is likely to go away in a year or two?  Or are you just generally worried about things changing because an internet-based hustle just sort of "feels" less stable than doing an official job for a company? 

If it's the former, then yes, hang onto your day job for as long as you can tolerate.  Only you can say whether it's worth it to work longer and save more quickly vs. take more time now and postpone your full FIRE date.  But if it's the latter, then don't let fear stop you from what you want.  Put in the work to figure out what the realistic options are and what you would do if each one happens.  And once you have a plan, execute it.  Really, what's the worst that can happen -- you're forced to get another day job?  Isn't that where you are now?  IMO, if your worst-case scenario is "take a chance on my own business, then go back to an office job in a couple of years if it doesn't work," how is that somehow worse than "stay in an office job the whole time"?  Wouldn't you rather take a chance on yourself? 

Smokystache

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Re: Case Study - What would you do in my shoes? When to take a leap?
« Reply #4 on: February 03, 2023, 09:41:44 AM »
My questions echo what @Laura33 asked. Specifically,

- How does your time associated with the side hustle impact net revenue? If you work twice as many hours will you make twice as much? Or is it a situation where you wouldn't make that much more with more time invested?

- Could more time allow you to expand offerings/products/services and make it more diversified?

- Is each sale to a new customer or do you have recurring sales? Subscriptions?

- Is the side-hustle based on skill or knowledge that would be difficult to share? Or put another way, can you train your wife to do it? If she quit her job and could add 10-20 hours more to the side-hustle, then you could have the security of your job for a while longer) and if the worst case scenario happens, then you didn't lose the higher paying job (this is entirely numbers based with a lot of sub-questions; would she enjoy side-hustle? can she do it? Can you work on it together without disagreements? How would she feel in the worst case scenario? This is making even more assumptions that may not be true, but she may prefer a part-time gig and more time with your child (but so may you).
 

joe189man

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Re: Case Study - What would you do in my shoes? When to take a leap?
« Reply #5 on: February 03, 2023, 09:56:05 AM »
i would echo @Laura33 and @Smokystache

you have 253k + 75k = 328k or about 10 years of expenses in cash and investments now.

Consider the nature of the side hustle work and how sustainable it is.

I would ask for a sabbatical maybe, to do a trial run on quitting full time work and focusing on the side hustle and your family. you have a great safety net now, i only see positives here.

DataGeek56

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Re: Case Study - What would you do in my shoes? When to take a leap?
« Reply #6 on: February 03, 2023, 10:26:05 AM »
Hey Laura33, Smokystache,

Thanks for the input. I will try to answer each question.

- Yes, I pretty much make x3 as much as my day job working 20 hours per week (the initial time investment was 30-35 hours per week for 2 years).

- The time associated with the side hustle will definitely/probably increase the revenue in the long run, but it will not be like putting 20 hours more and earning x2 as much. I will try to explain below.

- Yes, the side hustle is knowledge based. I have a skillset in specific technical niche of software development (not the usual Java, etc). Funny thing is that it does not pay that well in my day job and the Java folks make x2 more than me in my country. However due to limited supply, it seems an easier sell to companies that actually use the technology.
I create training programs that are 50+ hours long and pre-recorded. I sell via partners that reach/have connections with corporate clients and sell my content. I get 60% of the revenue. At high price point, not the Udemy kind of thing. I also provide consultancy when requested by the same clients but this is less than 5% of income.

- 50 hours long training takes me x30 time to prepare and record at least. So like 1500 hours. I used to do more than 20 hours in first 2 years and managed to do 1 masterclass per year with all these hours. Nowadays 10 hours per week is maintaining existing content(some UI, etc gets updated all the time), helping users on questions on the material,etc.

- The issue is that only 1 course makes 70% of the money. The second best brings 20% and the 3rd makes 5% and another 5% from consultancy or so.

- The technology is hot at the moment but will probably not be that hot in a few years. To be relevant and utilize more free time I will need to invest time in learning new trendy technology (since I already teach my biggest expertise). Then I need to create more content and hope that I hit another homerun and not another 5% after 1 year of work. 5% is $500 per month or so. So investing more time will not have direct impact on income, more likely possible income in 1-1.5 years after devoting more time to it.

Great idea to have the wife do something similar. I have though about this but in reality she does not seem to have a skill that she can sell.

I think, as you stated I will probably be fine if I go full time. Worst case is probably that in 2-3 years I need to look for a job. Only issue is that 2-3 years away from IT sector will mean my skillset and resume will be lacking. But I will probably be able to get a job anyway.

I come from a family with no money and am the first one with actual savings and money from self employment. The whole situation feels unreal to me. At the beginning I was like, I will go full time when I make more than my job, then it was x2, now x3 does not feel enough to take the risk...

I am probably just a wimp :)


DataGeek56

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Re: Case Study - What would you do in my shoes? When to take a leap?
« Reply #7 on: February 03, 2023, 10:27:58 AM »
Thanks a lot Joe. I posted some further details about the side hustle at the same time you were posting.
Thanks for the words of encouragement. I was leaning more towards putting another 3 years at my day job but your guys post make me think that I should bet on myself rather than corp. hmm.

i would echo @Laura33 and @Smokystache

you have 253k + 75k = 328k or about 10 years of expenses in cash and investments now.

Consider the nature of the side hustle work and how sustainable it is.

I would ask for a sabbatical maybe, to do a trial run on quitting full time work and focusing on the side hustle and your family. you have a great safety net now, i only see positives here.

Laura33

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Re: Case Study - What would you do in my shoes? When to take a leap?
« Reply #8 on: February 03, 2023, 11:21:11 AM »
Worst case is probably that in 2-3 years I need to look for a job. Only issue is that 2-3 years away from IT sector will mean my skillset and resume will be lacking. But I will probably be able to get a job anyway.

I come from a family with no money and am the first one with actual savings and money from self employment. The whole situation feels unreal to me. At the beginning I was like, I will go full time when I make more than my job, then it was x2, now x3 does not feel enough to take the risk...

I am probably just a wimp :)

Look at it this way:  if you want to make the internet job viable long-term, you need to make significant time investments in learning new technology.  That's exactly the same kind of thing you would need to have a great resume, right?  I think it is very likely that even if you don't identify the next big thing, the work you put in to learning what's out there will also pave the way to another comparable corporate job if that should become necessary.

FWIW, you are not a wimp.  We had some very tight financial times in my childhood, and that kind of worry can create a need for security and a general feeling like you're always waiting for something to go wrong, because you know that it eventually will.  The important thing to do when you tend to think that way is to learn to challenge your own thinking -- don't just assume that something will fail, do the research to get the data you need to make a good decision, then sketch out every outcome you fear and develop a plan to address it.  That analysis will show you when you should appropriately be concerned about something or when you are just letting your fear run you.

Also read lots of MMM -- his columns on optimism and stoicism were powerful for me.  In particular the stoicism ones, because when you realize how little you actually "need," it makes the failure scenarios less overwhelmingly scary.

Smokystache

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Re: Case Study - What would you do in my shoes? When to take a leap?
« Reply #9 on: February 03, 2023, 11:55:57 AM »
Hey Laura33, Smokystache,

Thanks for the input. I will try to answer each question.

- Yes, I pretty much make x3 as much as my day job working 20 hours per week (the initial time investment was 30-35 hours per week for 2 years).

- The time associated with the side hustle will definitely/probably increase the revenue in the long run, but it will not be like putting 20 hours more and earning x2 as much. I will try to explain below.

- Yes, the side hustle is knowledge based. I have a skillset in specific technical niche of software development (not the usual Java, etc). Funny thing is that it does not pay that well in my day job and the Java folks make x2 more than me in my country. However due to limited supply, it seems an easier sell to companies that actually use the technology.
I create training programs that are 50+ hours long and pre-recorded. I sell via partners that reach/have connections with corporate clients and sell my content. I get 60% of the revenue. At high price point, not the Udemy kind of thing. I also provide consultancy when requested by the same clients but this is less than 5% of income.

- 50 hours long training takes me x30 time to prepare and record at least. So like 1500 hours. I used to do more than 20 hours in first 2 years and managed to do 1 masterclass per year with all these hours. Nowadays 10 hours per week is maintaining existing content(some UI, etc gets updated all the time), helping users on questions on the material,etc.

- The issue is that only 1 course makes 70% of the money. The second best brings 20% and the 3rd makes 5% and another 5% from consultancy or so.

- The technology is hot at the moment but will probably not be that hot in a few years. To be relevant and utilize more free time I will need to invest time in learning new trendy technology (since I already teach my biggest expertise). Then I need to create more content and hope that I hit another homerun and not another 5% after 1 year of work. 5% is $500 per month or so. So investing more time will not have direct impact on income, more likely possible income in 1-1.5 years after devoting more time to it.

Great idea to have the wife do something similar. I have though about this but in reality she does not seem to have a skill that she can sell.

I think, as you stated I will probably be fine if I go full time. Worst case is probably that in 2-3 years I need to look for a job. Only issue is that 2-3 years away from IT sector will mean my skillset and resume will be lacking. But I will probably be able to get a job anyway.

I come from a family with no money and am the first one with actual savings and money from self employment. The whole situation feels unreal to me. At the beginning I was like, I will go full time when I make more than my job, then it was x2, now x3 does not feel enough to take the risk...

I am probably just a wimp :)

Continuing to agree with @Laura33  - You're not a wimp, but you should also make moves toward doing this full-time (or whatever is full-time for you)

I don't want to gloss over that first part. Leaving a job is a big mental step. I left a tenured college professor job -- essentially guaranteed for life, but it was easily the best move I've ever made. And I even liked my job. But now I only answer emails I want to answer, I only attend meetings that I set up or accepted. If I want to take the middle of the week off and go to the nearby amusement park and ride roller-coasters all day, then that is what I do. On the other hand, I'm probably working harder than I did -- but it feels completely different when I'm the beneficiary.

I've created and sell a course on Teachable, but not in the coding/software space. My first reaction is that with your freed up time, you need a variety of short and long courses -- with an emphasis on creating more short courses. Taking the "fail fast" approach, I would look for situations where you can teach something that you can create in 2 weeks or less. It will feel too short to you, but price it accordingly and see what happens. Does that course sell? What questions do you get? This leads to the decision to offer more on that topic or longer courses with more detail.

I agree with you, you should not be spending 1500 hours on a course that doesn't generate much short-term revenue. A safer approach is to design one small course that sells well and your students say, "What about X, Y, and Z - help us take the next steps". Then create a slightly longer course, get feedback ... and then if the market is asking for the big, long course, you would not only know the demand is there, but you would already have a long list of people who you know will buy it at $xxx price.

I know it is not quite that easy, but it is pretty simple. But now hearing the topic and what you've done already, this is a no-brainer in my book. It's time to create your self-employed empire. I thought maybe you had figured out a quick and easy service using ChatGPT that as soon as someone else realized you were making money, they could copy the process, underprice you, and you're screwed. But you're talking about using real skills and experience to create a service that is highly in-demand and can adjust to changing circumstances to always be in demand. I encourage you to go for it.