Can we Coastfire or should we hang on a bit longer???

[VanJ13]

Question: Is our goal realistic? Is our timeline doable? Are we calculating correctly? What are we missing?  How best to plan for this?  Could we CoastFire?  What are the next steps? 

Us: We are 52 and 53 and have 2 kids - a (rising) Sophomore in college and Junior in high school.  We are definitely on the older end of most in this group it feels like.

Goal: Be financially independent by Jan 2031 (or before) with $80k max per year withdrawal, so $2 mil saved by age 60, so my husband can stop working altogether or take lower paying PT/contract work.  All the scenarios of savings, including saving nothing more in retirement accounts, based on the spreadsheet I use with a 6% return rate, show us reaching 2 million by age 60.  Unless the spreadsheet I use simple isn’t accurate.  I use the one I downloaded from the blog, Budgets are Sexy. 

Husband is pretty stressed in current role (he's in IT), but it goes up and down.  He earns the vast majority of our income as I work PT as a preschool teacher, which of course pays hardly anything, although I enjoy it.  I manage the house/kids/finances/taxes/etc.

Some scenarios being considered -
1.   Continue as we are now until age 60, so about 6 ½ more years, then retire.
2.   Continue as we are for the next 2-3 years until youngest is in college, then have husband Coastfire and downgrade to a less stressful position (I think he could excel in contract work but the health insurance component scares him – I get that)
3.   Downgrade to a lower paying/less stressful job now and CoastFire
4.   Any other options I should think about?

Current Income:

Combine gross income is roughly $177k (his 162k plus my 15k) plus the potential for his bonus but we don’t know what this from year to year as it’s based on company profits.  He’s only been bonus-eligible the last 2 years and it was around (net) $23k last year and $32k this year, but apparently in previous years has been as low as net $2500, so we just don’t know.  As such, I generally don’t count it in any figures/projections.  The company is doing a lot of restructuring currently and husband is kinda half hoping (maybe more) they offer him a severance package.
Retirement accounts:
•   Taxable – 401k, Ira - $856k, 61k = 917k total
•   NonTaxable – Roths - $485k
•   Total Retirement = $1,402,000
Other Savings: (not included in retirement calculations as they are earmarked for emergencies, cars, travel, some home expenses, college)
•   Vanguard brokerage - $53,900
•   Vanguard 529s – total $95k
•   HYSA - $74k
•   Regular Savings - $14k

Assets
Home – worth $750k-800k – Owe about $28k.  Will be paid off in Feb 2028, freeing up $11,800 per year (mortgage is 986/mo). 

Current Expenses
Expenses for the last 2 years averaged from low to high:
$48k/year or $4000/month to
55k/year or 4580/month these values include purchases of used Toyota Rav4 and Suburu Forrester we bought for $14.5k and 21k (I excluded them when calculating the lower average since they were an anomaly).

Note: I have definitely noticed some increase in spending from 2020 to 2024, however some of that could be because our boys have grown up and are now man-sized teens.  Everything has gotten more expensive as a result as they eat more (ie all the time!); care more about clothes, shoes, and hair; play sports, drive, all the things.  But, I will definitely be paying more attention and tracking this more closely.

Future Expenses

COLLEGE – we have enough saved for current son in college and *maybe* enough for younger son.  Might need to supplement his, depending on where he goes/merit aid.  Youngest starts college in 2 years and oldest will graduate in 3 years. 

Other Future Expenses – some immediate, some not so much.
•   Replace 2006 minivan (probably by end of this summer)
•   Car for younger son (probably by Spring 2026)
•   Fireplace conversion to gas - it’s done nothing for 20+ years and we want it to
•   Possibly invisilign for both my husband and I ~ $10k
•   New windows – not vital and might not do it. Many are original 1930s so replacements can be expensive – do want to do kitchen ones in next couple of years
•   Floors - refinishing though traditional sanding has been discouraged in order to preserve original hardwoods, so looking into that
•   work
•   Bathroom renovation – next 5-10 years
•   Deck/fence are old and will need to be replaced in the next 5-10 years
•   More travel/entertainment once kids are in college/out of house

Let me know if I forgot any important information.  I appreciate any insight, advice, whatever.  And any advice on the healthcare aspect of things is appreciated.  Thanks!

[MDM]

From a quick read, it appears you have things well planned out - good job!

Looking at the suggestions in the Investment Order post, how do those compare with what you are doing?

Using $177K AGI from W-2 earnings only, in 2025 you incur about $19.7K IRS tax, $11K to SocSec and $2.5K to Medicare, for a total of $33.2K.  Adjust for state income tax as needed.

That leaves $143.8K for "spending" and "investing".  If you are spending ~$50K/yr, are you investing $93.8K/yr (including 401k, IRA, Roth, taxable, etc.)?

[VanJ13]

As far as the investment order goes.  Our HYSA/vanguard brokerage acts as an emergency fund.  We have no debt, except the remaining mortgage of $28k.  We contribute up to 401k match, then max Roth ($16k), then try to get up to max of my husband's 401k, including catch up. We are doing that now (30k).  We also save a small amount in our younger son's 529, but it's only  $200/mo. I also just recently started diverting all of my small paycheck to a 403b (it was all going to our HYSA), but I'm not sure if I should keep doing that or not.  There is no match for that. 

We don't have an HSA (which kinda blows my mind bc my husband works for a healthcare company).  I've thought about getting one on our own as I think you can do that, but there would be no match or anything so not sure if that's prudent or not.

Our AGI has increased a lot over the last 5 years because I went back to work PT (I was homeschooling prior) and my spouse got a promotion in 2023 and became bonus eligible and got large (to us) bonuses starting in 2024. So, we haven't always had so much to invest or been up to the max on our 401k.
AGI's listed below
2020 - $107,058
2021 - $109,400
2022 - $114,525
2023 - $138, 644
2024 - $176, 973
2025 - i think will be around $190k

We are investing $16k in Roths and $30k (plus $12k match) in retirement funds. $2400 goes to 529.  All of my paycheck and the 2 bonuses was being diverted to our HYSA (which is why it has grown so large), before I changed my paychecks to the 403b.  I am currently off for the summer, but I might change that back to the HYSA. 

We do not have State income taxes. Our property taxes are going up about $1000 I think.  It hasn't been finalized yet so I haven't seen the final number.

We also recently paid $13,875 from our HYSA to get large trees off of our house (and ones taken all the way down) that fell during a storm last month and are hoping to recoup that from insurance but they are being pains about it (it's under review) and we are hoping we won't be out even more for repairs.  So, the HYSA was $14k higher until that happened.

After making some of our major purchases (ie cars) that are looming, we do need to decide what to do with the bonuses if they continue to be large, if my husband stays at his current role.  I suppose we will put it into the brokerage fund. We also have some stock worth about $8k.  I forgot about that.  That is the one money thing that I don't deal with as it's something my husband just plays around with based on crazy spec stock picks from my Dad. 

[Dicey]

Time is short today, so I'll be brief and blunt. The best thing you can do to accelerate/solidify your timeline is to stop selling yourself short. Your work/life energy* is worth more than $15k per year. You can always return to part-time teaching for fun after you hit FIRE.

Then funnel all of your earnings (after reaching the annual retirement savings limits) into taxable investments. Why? Because you will need it to fund your early retirement years.

*Hat tip to YMOYL.

[MDM]

As far as the investment order goes.  Our HYSA/vanguard brokerage acts as an emergency fund.  We have no debt, except the remaining mortgage of $28k.  We contribute up to 401k match, then max Roth ($16k), then try to get up to max of my husband's 401k, including catch up. We are doing that now (30k).  We also save a small amount in our younger son's 529, but it's only  $200/mo. I also just recently started diverting all of my small paycheck to a 403b (it was all going to our HYSA), but I'm not sure if I should keep doing that or not.  There is no match for that.

Maximizing contributions to traditional accounts when one expects those contributions to save a higher tax rate than will be incurred at withdrawal is a good idea.

We don't have an HSA (which kinda blows my mind bc my husband works for a healthcare company).  I've thought about getting one on our own as I think you can do that, but there would be no match or anything so not sure if that's prudent or not.

You can indeed establish your own HSA (Fidelity is a good place for this), but only if you are covered by an HSA-compliant High Deductible Health Plan (HDHP) - are you?

I suppose we will put it into the brokerage fund.

Yes, taxable investing (above a savings account) would be good.  Rather than speculative stock picks, consider some of the ideas in Three-fund portfolio - Bogleheads.

[VanJ13]

.....stop selling yourself short. Your work/life energy* is worth more than $15k per year.

I agree that my work/life energy is worth more than this.  But, it's not me selling myself short, but society who continues to place little value on any kind of teaching or caretaking (of children or elderly). 

I do get what you are saying, but I also really enjoy my job, and feel appreciated and valued, and there is something to be said for that.  I just want my husband to be in something that he really loves as well that doesn't stress him so much, and that might mean scaling down at work and seeking a lower level/paying position.

So, what I am asking is....is my math okay and can we afford for him to do that based on our age/goals?  If he were in a situation that he enjoys more, he might want to keep working longer than 60, who knows. 

Thanks.