Author Topic: Case Study: 29 and a recent MMM Enthusiast - Can I be FIRE by 40?  (Read 36872 times)

nippycrisp

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Re: Case Study: 29 and a recent MMM Enthusiast - Can I be FIRE by 40?
« Reply #100 on: October 22, 2022, 01:05:17 PM »
You asked about interest rates, so I'll address that. You could think of this decision in terms of best/average/worst-case scenarios.

Best: the current reversion towards historically average mortgage rates reverses. Rates plunge back to low single digits, while the economy remains strong. Home values reverse their current slide and you gain a bit of equity. No major problems with rental or job loss. In three years you are able to refinance and save maybe $1200-1500 a month.

Average: rates remain near their current historical average. Home prices go sideways. Economy is mixed. You remain house poor, and miss the opportunity to go in on a down market. on the other hand, you have a cash-flowing rental at a good interest rate, but are stuck with 7-8 years of PMI on your new purchase and have limited liquid assets to deploy. 

Worst: This is your nightmare scenario. Mortgage rates continue to climb, and/or the broader economy tanks. The good news is you have locked in a lot of debt at a "low" rate relative to the 9-18% mortgages we've seen in the past fifty years. The bad: home values have shrunk as borrowing costs increased, and nearly fifty percent of your net worth is tied up there. You will pay PMI forever, and will be blocked from refi-ing due to low LTV. Two other things are also likely to happen: inflation has continued (the likely reason the Fed has increased the rates that are fueling the high borrowing costs) and the rate hikes have pushed us into an unsurprising recession. Unemployment increases (this may not affect your job, but what about your tenants? CA isn't a landlord-friendly state), and your limited free dollars are eaten into. Instead of buying depressed equities, you may be selling them.

Obviously there's some more nuance than I've sketched out, but you get the idea. No one can say how likely each of these scenarios is but, if I can editorialize, I don't see much in the way of upside to offset the risks.

If you absolutely must upgrade, I'd suggest looking at the numbers if you sell property #1. Your loan looks late stage, so you're probably not saving too much on interest/tax deductions. You can carry the profits into the new sale (I think) without taxes, you lose PMI, the hassle of managing a rental, reduce your exposure to the mortgage industry, and have some extra to deploy into the current market. And you can still refi if that avenue becomes attractive.

You can't control the broader economy, but you can control your risk.

Dicey

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Re: Case Study: 29 and a recent MMM Enthusiast - Can I be FIRE by 40?
« Reply #101 on: October 22, 2022, 04:37:36 PM »
Being house poor made me rich. CA real estate is a whole different beast, one that even some very smart mustachians just can't grok. My advice would be to put 20% down, because you can and because PMI sucks. Also, you must know yourself well enough to be sure of how you will react if the market continues to soften and your down payment goes poof! It could happen, but if it's really your forever house, it won't matter in the long run.

I lived in SoCal, I get it. I still think it's extremely risky -- CA can't get a pass on math forever.
I do not disagree in theory, only degree. CA does not get a pass on the math. We bought our primary NorCal home on a short sale in 2012. We bought SoCal  rentals in 2015 and 2016 below market. Each had been on the market for 12+ months for reasons that didn't scare us.*

Real estate is a roller coaster. Those for no stomach for it should stay renters forever. Ditto for those who dislike home maintenance. Also, anyone ewho believes RE "must go up" should get an automatic DQ.

*Yeah, one of them smelled of sewage. We replaced the wax ring that had failed for $5.00. Problem solved.

terrifictim

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Re: Case Study: 29 and a recent MMM Enthusiast - Can I be FIRE by 40?
« Reply #102 on: November 10, 2023, 06:17:04 PM »
Hi @nippycrisp and others,

It's been a while so figured I would update. Basically just want to confirm that everyone goes "No-Brainer" before I do this.

We ended up buying a property in December 2022 for $800kish at 6.25%. Wife and daughter love it, so definitely a win on the family side. We're having a second daughter soon, so we would have been forced to buy at some point - which would have hurt even more now.

We've definitely had some lifestyle expenses + the increased mortgage - right now I make about $11k/mth and we're spending it all, 1/2 on the mortgage, 1/2 on everything else. Our cash on hand is about 2-3 months of expenses.

We decided to rent the existing property through a property manager for the past year and it's been wonderful - no issue, payment every month. Getting close to renewal of lease where we have to decide whether to renew lease or sell.

As of the last post the general consensus was to sell. I'm now much more inclined to do that, any thoughts about why I should not?

Key Stats:
Estimated Selling Price: $575k
Current Mortgage: $170k at 3%
Current Rental Income: $2650/mth
Net Rental Income (after Mortgage, HOA, Insurance, Prop Tax and Mgmt Fee): $700/mth
I have until Dec 2025 to sell before I get hit with capital gains tax.

EchoStache

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Re: Case Study: 29 and a recent MMM Enthusiast - Can I be FIRE by 40?
« Reply #103 on: November 11, 2023, 07:07:19 AM »
You are netting $700/month on the rental property, with the risk and headaches associated with land lording.

$400k from the sale of property in a MMF would pay you ~$1700/month.

Unless you can drastically increase net profit on the rental, it seems you would be much better off re-allocating your $400k equity even in the safest no risk investment that exists.

nippycrisp

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Re: Case Study: 29 and a recent MMM Enthusiast - Can I be FIRE by 40?
« Reply #104 on: November 11, 2023, 08:21:55 PM »
Agree w/Echostache. Hell, putting it in one of those 5.25% saving accounts would outperform the net rental income.

The only arguments I see for keeping the rental is the possibility of appreciation (in rent or property itself). Don't see that happening with rates where they are.

If you have some flex, might want to toy with trying FSBO, especially if the comps are easy. 5-6% realtor commissions are going to take a big chunk of your net. 

terrifictim

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Re: Case Study: 29 and a recent MMM Enthusiast - Can I be FIRE by 40?
« Reply #105 on: July 30, 2024, 04:33:24 PM »
A few updates since it's been a while.
  • Sold the rental in February - cleared $400k even after closing costs!
  • DD2 was born a week after!

Now that we're starting to emerge from the immediate haze of newborn parenting, posting this both as an update as well as acknowledgement of some face punches. We've definitely let our expenses get out of hand - trying to find the balance of supporting DW and not criticizing her sanity spending while also starting to work on plugging some of the holes in our spending. We were certainly hoping rates would come down a little bit by now but we're still doing okay. Certainly could focus more on cutting down Amazon and limiting some of the Costco - but right now it feels alot like we're paying the extra cost for a little more sanity. DW is SAHM with both the 4-year old and 5-month old, with plans to eventually return to work in some capacity once they're both in school.

Anything glaring that you all see?

------------------------------------

Gross Income - $12,500
Net Income $6,000 (Currently saving $4k/mth in 401k + $2,500 for taxes and benefits)

Expenses/month (since Mint is no more still figuring out a new system - but I think these are mostly accurate).
  • Mortgage (Principal, Interest and Escrow) - $5400
    Charity - $1400
    Food (Costco + Walmart) - $1000
    Shopping (Amazon) - $800
    Insurance - $250
    Utilities (Phone, Water, Trash) - $350
    Housing Repair - $200
    Auto (Gas) - $150
    Misc - $350
Overall: $9,926

Balance Sheet:
  • Cash and Taxable Accounts: $480k
    401K/Roth Accounts: $660k
    Primary Residence: $940k (Zestimate)
    2 Vehicles: $30k (no loans).
    Mortgage - $700k
Overall: $1380k

nippycrisp

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Re: Case Study: 29 and a recent MMM Enthusiast - Can I be FIRE by 40?
« Reply #106 on: July 30, 2024, 09:38:34 PM »
I looked back at your first post from 2017. On the plus side, you've gone from liquid $144K to about 1.4M, so you've added a million dollars to your bottom line in about 7 years. 9.72x higher. Very nice. On the other hand, expenses were $2730 a month back then. Currently: $10K. 3.66x higher. It's both mortgage (>5x higher) and non-mortgage (2.7x higher).

Overall, in 2017 your invested assets were 4.4x expenses. Today you're 14x expenses. With your current contributions and an 8% return, you're going to be at $2.12M in four years, 17.7x annual expenses, give or take. I think the answer to your question is, at present, no, you will not be FIRE by 40 on current path. You've obviously made progress - you'd be FIRE now based on 2017 expenses - but the permanent uptick in expenses (housing) and current surge in discretionary are a huge drag. Unless you move, the odds of controlling expenses between mortgage, travel soccer, and future college costs seems slim. I assume you are OK with this outcome. 

Other questions/thoughts:

401k: How are you contributing 4K/month to 401K when your wife isn't working? Are you frontloading? Including match? Otherwise you'll max out after 6 months.

Cashflow: From what I see, you're losing money from your taxable each month. If you burn up 4K a month for ten years via deficit spending, your taxable will be mostly gone and you'll have an issue as to how access funds without penalty in an early retirement scenario. Obviously lots of ways to address, but worth thinking about. 

Mortgage: On a 30 year schedule, you're still paying quite a bit in mortgage interest ten years from now (around the time you might stop working). That's an awfully big tax break to lose due to zero income. Just food for thought.

PMJL34

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Re: Case Study: 29 and a recent MMM Enthusiast - Can I be FIRE by 40?
« Reply #107 on: July 30, 2024, 10:51:25 PM »
Awesome reply nippycrisp! Super detailed, accurate, and concise. A+.

OP, I think you are doing fine and will no doubt be okay. However...

I keep reading these multi year case study updates and frankly I'm saddened to see so many fellow forum members "give in" to lifestyle inflation. It reminds me of active/fit young people get older and get "dad bods" down the line. And it's so socially acceptable. I don't think it should be.

Here's the facepunch. You know you are over spending by a lot and it's getting worse. Your budget doesn't even include any major things like travel/vacation or major home repairs, new car, future kid activities school. And all of those will/should happen so you are actually spending way more than 120k/year.

I'll also note that 400k (sale of rental) + 240k (equity) is just about 50% of your networth. Awesome job by the way! But I wouldn't count on these gains going forward.

Maybe I'm being too tough.   

Best of luck! 


Laura33

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Re: Case Study: 29 and a recent MMM Enthusiast - Can I be FIRE by 40?
« Reply #108 on: July 31, 2024, 07:16:47 AM »
So if I'm reading this right, you are currently actually saving nothing.  You're just transferring money from taxable accounts to your 401(k).  You have $12,500 in net income.  You report about $10K in expenses, and $2500 for taxes and benefits.  You're breaking even.

Yes, you have a problem with groceries and online shopping.  But your problem is much more structural than that:  your mortgage alone is almost as much as your entire take-home pay, and almost half your gross income.  Even if you cut your groceries and Amazon in half, that will clear less than $1K/mo. for savings -- not nothing, but not the kind of savings rate you need to get to FIRE.

Seems to me that you have chosen to deploy your assets in two major ways:  (1) an expensive house; and (2) a SAHP.  I'm sure you have good reasons for those choices, but you need to recognize that they come at the expense of your FIRE plans.  And then there's the charity; I'm assuming that it's a tithe and thus is non-negotiable, but again, that's money that isn't available to help get you to FIRE.

The really good news is that you have $1M tucked away that can continue to grow, so even if you just break even for now, you're in great shape for your ultimate retirement.  The not-so-great news is that with your current expense level, that money will probably take 15-20 more years to grow enough to support your spending -- right now, your assets wouldn't generate enough to cover even your mortgage.  But the flip side of that is that once you get your mortgage paid off, your remaining monthly costs are low enough that you'll have enough by then to cover them.  So as long as you're happy tying your RE date to paying off the mortgage, you'll be fine.

With respect to cutting your DW's Costco and Amazon costs, the only way I know to manage that is to take on the shopping yourself.  Two young kids is freaking hard (I adore my kids, but you couldn't pay me enough to go back to those years), and being home all day with them can be isolating.  You seem really sensitive to that, which is awesome.  Probably best to be really gentle on that topic and focus on the things you can control.

terrifictim

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Re: Case Study: 29 and a recent MMM Enthusiast - Can I be FIRE by 40?
« Reply #109 on: July 31, 2024, 10:36:03 AM »
Hi @nippycrisp , @PMJL34 and @Laura33 ,

Thanks so much for all of your comments and questions. I think you put into words a lot of what I was feeling.

Big picture I've come to terms with the fact that retirement at 40 is no longer feasible. When I initially wrote this post in 2017 I was single with no kids, traveling alot for work, and able to live a fairly frugal lifestyle. I was already naturally frugal, MMM just gave me a focus and direction. Since then I've gotten married, 2 kids, bought the house, and just had general lifestyle inflation.

As much as I love DW, she has a very different relationship with money than I do and is much more of a live in the moment personality- which can be great for life but not necessarily for a budget. We've talked and she's expressed an openness in going to therapy to help her with her money approach (related to some childhood upbringing issues) but haven't gotten to it yet. I've tried throughout the years to express the freedom that FIRE would give us using some of the different approaches I've seen in this forum, but nothing has ever really landed. We've also tried budgeting apps and other tools but they only work for a month or so. And I've tried to be really intentional about not nit-picking every purchase she makes knowing that she's incredibly sacrificial with her time and energy.

Right now the biggest priority is to allow her to be a SAHP to both daughters while they're young. Buying the house definitely set us back financially but has been great for us from a family point of view. So I've just accepted that I can't have FIRE at 40 along with a SAHP and an expensive house.

And the various calculators I've used all have shown 95%+ success rate with retirement at 55 or so, so it's really just seeing what I can do before then. Trying to remind myself that I'm still doing good compared to many others.

And thanks for the facepunches. The comment about giving in to lifestyle inflation/ getting a dad bod hit home. I think part of posting this was to "get on the scale" so that I can take some more actions now rather than letting another few years go by and keep on inflating. 

On the positive front DW has already made it clear that she doesn't want to be a SAHP forever. So knowing that in the next five years we're likely to: 1. refinance 2. get a second income and 3. have a few more raises we should hopefully get some more margin in the budget. Obviously balanced that against the likely increase in expenses due to vacation, kid activities, home repairs, etc. Also although I know not to count on it we do expect to receive a decent inheritance at some point down the line.

For specific questions:
1. 401K - yes I'm currently frontloading. Especially as I was out on paternity leave for 2 months and missed out on the 401k contributions during that time, trying to catch up since we do have assets and I didn't max out the 401k last year.
2. Cash Flow - yes, very aware that we're at best break even to in the red each month.
3. Mortgage - still intending to just keep on adding to taxable and once that account exceeds the mortgage decide if we'd sleep better with the mortgage paid off or keep rolling in taxable.
4. Cutting Costco/Amazon - agreed that even though it's "low-hanging" fruit it's likely not the area I should be focusing on since it's an area of sanity for her.

Laura33

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Re: Case Study: 29 and a recent MMM Enthusiast - Can I be FIRE by 40?
« Reply #110 on: August 01, 2024, 10:47:34 AM »
As much as I love DW, she has a very different relationship with money than I do and is much more of a live in the moment personality- which can be great for life but not necessarily for a budget. We've talked and she's expressed an openness in going to therapy to help her with her money approach (related to some childhood upbringing issues) but haven't gotten to it yet. I've tried throughout the years to express the freedom that FIRE would give us using some of the different approaches I've seen in this forum, but nothing has ever really landed. We've also tried budgeting apps and other tools but they only work for a month or so. And I've tried to be really intentional about not nit-picking every purchase she makes knowing that she's incredibly sacrificial with her time and energy.

Right now the biggest priority is to allow her to be a SAHP to both daughters while they're young. Buying the house definitely set us back financially but has been great for us from a family point of view. So I've just accepted that I can't have FIRE at 40 along with a SAHP and an expensive house.

And the various calculators I've used all have shown 95%+ success rate with retirement at 55 or so, so it's really just seeing what I can do before then. Trying to remind myself that I'm still doing good compared to many others.

FWIW, I think you have your head on straight.  I emphasize with the spendypants spouse -- I have one of those myself, and part of the tradeoff is a significant increase in lifestyle beyond what I had thought and watching him throw away stupid money on frivolous things we don't need (like $120 Oakleys vs. $10 Walgreens sunglasses -- still a sore spot 26 yrs later ;-)).  The difference in my mind is that we both worked throughout our marriage, with comparable salaries, so it was easy for me to tell myself that he's earned the money, and if he wants to be a dumb-ass about it, that's his right.  I think there's more potential for stress when there's only one spouse bringing in the money (and wants to FIRE) and the other one wants to spend more of it (and thus delay FIRE).  So you're going to need to pay attention to potential resentment and disagreements as you move through life.

One thing:  those childhood triggers are really, really powerful.  All that talk about the freedom FIRE would provide just does not resonate with her, because she doesn't give a shit about freedom -- and in fact cutting back to get that freedom would interfere with whatever her priority is.*  The only way through that is to find a way to frame things up in a way that focuses on her priorities and values.

I'll give you an example:  I grew up with both no money and an anti-consumerist mother; I was raised to see money as a scarce good that must be hoarded instead of spent.  DH grew up UMC; to him, money did, in fact, grow on trees, so if he wanted more of it, he'd just go earn it.  So to him, if he wanted Oakleys, he'd worked for the money, he could afford them, so why shouldn't he treat himself?  And when he came home with them, my Inner Bag Lady went apeshit and could see only the extra $100 he'd blown on completely unnecessary show-off branding (and they weren't even polarized!  I mean, come on!).

I had to realize, though, that my view of the world wasn't the only one, and that his was just as valid (stupid, but valid) -- that just as I had a strong need to save extra, he had an equally strong desire to treat himself to nice things, because knowing that he could afford nice things made him feel like a success.  And there was no question but that we could "afford" his stupid Oakleys (DINKs at the time).  For us, the solution was separate "fun money" budgets every month -- he got an extra $200 that he could spend on whatever stupid thing he wanted, with zero input or criticism from me, and I got an extra $200 that I could stick right into savings.  That approach allowed us both to serve those emotional drivers, while corraling them into a defined zone that avoided constant disagreements and ensured that the extras didn't interfere with our long-term goals.** 

I'd also suggest that when you talk to her about FIRE, you do it from an emotional level, not as rational discussion of the benefits.  "Freedom" is amorphous and hard to wrap your arms around if it's not something that really speaks to you.  What does it mean on a daily basis to you?  Really, what I'm going for is:  you have to get up every morning and spend long hours at work to provide for the family.  That's hours and hours a day that you spend away from her and the kids.  It is a sacrifice you are willing to make, because they are your priority, and their happiness is more than worth continuing to work longer.  But boy, you'd really like to be able to spend more time with her and the kids before they're grown and off to college -- whether that's a less-demanding job, going part-time, or quitting entirely.  The problem is that you can't afford that now, or at any point in the near future; you'd need to save more and lower expenses to be able to afford it.  If you felt like you guys were making progress as a team toward that goal, so you'd know that in, say, 10 years, you could go part-time, that would make it all worth it.  But it's hard to see every month that you're just treading water and not making any progress toward freeing you to spend more time with the kids.  You can't work any harder to bring in more money to allow you to save, so it seems like the only choices are to cut some of the "extras," or for you to keep postponing your own dreams and goals.  And right now, it seems like the only option is the second one, and that is just really, really hard for you to accept.  Having her home with the kids now is the single-most important thing.  But you'd like to know that the two of you are at least working on making your own dreams come true, too -- even if it's just managing to save a few hundred dollars a month for now.


*The first time I read MMM, it was more for amusement than anything else.  Living on $24K/yr?  Seriously?  I busted my ass in college and law school and my job specifically so I wouldn't have to live on $24K/yr!  So why tf would I quit just so I could go back to that voluntarily?  It took probably 15 years of hedonic adaptation and job/kid stress to start to see that "more" didn't make me happier and that there's strength in realizing that you don't actually need all that stuff to be happy.  Yes, some of us have to learn things the hard way.  ;-)

**I do want to pat myself on the back some here, because while I had to understand his needs and find a way to accommodate them -- and really, I found I liked some of the things we spent stupid money on -- he had to do the same.  And when his job got caught up in the first tech crash, and we went through four jobs and three states in five years, boy was he happy that I had insisted we save a lot and keep our basic expenses to what we could afford on one salary.  ;-) 

terrifictim

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Re: Case Study: 29 and a recent MMM Enthusiast - Can I be FIRE by 40?
« Reply #111 on: August 05, 2024, 09:23:21 AM »
Hi @Laura33 ,

Thanks so much for the advice and perspective!

I 100% agree with you on the challenges in regards to money perspectives. I'm naturally frugal and working, so for me FIRE resonated right away and really didn't require much of a change in my mindset. Whereas for her, she doesn't have the margin right now to think about 5, 10, 20 years down the line when she's focused on surviving moment-by-moment. So for her saving for some far down the line concept vs. spending the $ right now to keep her sanity (Starbucks, Amazon, McDonalds, etc. ) is totally worth the tradeoff. And unfortunately we're not so close to FIRE to be able to say "just xx year of living frugal and then I can be home more".

I'll keep on having conversations with her as we have time (a whole different challenge that I didn't expect to have - having meaningful conversations where we're both not exhausted or getting interrupted every couple minutes).

Thanks all for your words of encouragement and also facepunches - helpful to know that while our choices have put ourselves in this hole we can also pull ourselves back out of it.