Vancouver real estate

[sasha520]

If you had made over 500k in equity in the past 10 years, would you cash out?

What do you think is going to happen to Vancouver’s real estate market in the next few years?

Faced with the decision of selling to travel/live with parents (and eventually buy with them) or hanging on to an aging townhouse.

What would you do??

[daverobev]

Depends on everything else about your situation.

Does selling affect your work opportunities? Your social network? Would you be happy somewhere cheaper on Vancouver Island, say? (That would be and always is my thinking - move somewhere less expensive). Are you FIREd? Would you be with this money?

Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Though, the thing with Vancouver is just how restricted it is by its location - Canada's big, but the space right there between the mountains and the ocean isn't.

How old are you, how's your CPP looking, etc, etc.

[sasha520]

Husband’s work is remote. I could still work if we stay with my parents for a while.
We are 38 and want to take advtange of his remote job and travel the world now while the kids are young. Eventually I’ll be giving up my 60k per year job.

We can live for free in Phoenix at a family condo.

The goal is to just have somewhere that we own when we are done thr adventure. Whether that’s on the island, EI th my parents in the lower mainland, or in AB.

Other investments total 300kish no pensions.

Really it’s the unknown of what the market will do. The townhouse is poorly managed, strata is terrible, and there might be a huge levy for foundations on the horizon. It’s the main reason we are thinking to sell rather than rent it out.

That and we know it’s not our forever home.

[Chaplin]

Does selling affect your work opportunities? Your social network? Would you be happy somewhere cheaper on Vancouver Island, say? (That would be and always is my thinking - move somewhere less expensive). Are you FIREd? Would you be with this money?

We did exactly this: sold a townhouse in North Vancouver and moved to Victoria. Even though Victoria is the third most expensive housing market in Canada, the amount of money we had left over was significant. I really like it here, but there are times I miss that Vancouver truly had everything and felt much more happening and alive.

Having visited Pheonix I can't imagine leaving Vancouver for there. However, as a base of operations for a lot of travel, you can't beat free, and having parents/grandparents around is great.

Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Though, the thing with Vancouver is just how restricted it is by its location - Canada's big, but the space right there between the mountains and the ocean isn't.

That's sort of true, but it's not the biggest reason real estate there is as expensive as it is. The vast majority of Vancouver is zoned for single family homes (fun fact, that happened in the 1970s when it was "upzoned") and is extremely low density. This picture illustrates that:



Ironically, this propped up the value of property where the zoning would allow multi-family buildings to be built. If sasha520's property is zoned for SFH, which is possible despite currently having townhouses, it means that if all the owners decide the building is at its end of life and decide to sell, this limits the amount they could get. BC's new housing laws upzone essentially every SFH lot to allow four to six units (although Vancouver itself is a bit weird as it's governed by a Charter that's unique in the province - I need to research how this affects the Province-wide upzoning).

If the property is zoned multi-family, and assuming the upzoning applies to Vancouver, the property now stands out less because there are more potential properties on which to build multi-family. All of that is to say that an aging townhouse is going to appreciate a lot less from here on in than perhaps it has over the last twenty years. So if you want to get out and take advantage of much lower cost housing, it's not a bad time to do it. But wow, I would struggle with leaving behind everything Vancouver has in relation to Phoenix.

[sasha520]

Thanks! That’s good information.

We won’t be permanently moving to phx just using it as our warm base for our travels for the next year or so.

My parents own a house in pitt meadows and I think these communities are moving to increase the zoning to multiple houses on one lot. I thought this would have increased prices, but you’re saying it will lower them?

[Chaplin]

Thanks! That’s good information.

We won’t be permanently moving to phx just using it as our warm base for our travels for the next year or so.

My parents own a house in pitt meadows and I think these communities are moving to increase the zoning to multiple houses on one lot. I thought this would have increased prices, but you’re saying it will lower them?

Well, I think it will decrease the value of current townhouses (or slow the appreciation). In theory it does increase the value of SFH lots, but decreases the cost of the individual units (three, four or six depending on some factors) that could be built on them. In practice, because it's province-wide, it doesn't create a big lift for the SFH lots because there are so many of them. This is a big factor why the province had to do it. No individual municipality had the guts to do it, and the effects would be weird. Province-wide breaks the problem that no one wanted to go first and eliminates many of the weird distortions that would occur if only some municipalities did it.

Overall, if you're going to do a lot of travel for a few years, taking advantage of the Phoenix location sounds like a pretty good deal.

[Retire-Canada]

We can live for free in Phoenix at a family condo.

I just spent 2 weeks around PHX exploring their parks/trails. I wouldn't move their permanently and buy a house, but if you gave me a free house and my immigration status wasn't an issue I'd happily live there a few years. It's nicely located in AZ to explore a ton of great natural environments with the metro area itself having a ton to offer in that regard.

If you can get your equity out of a Vancouver house and into the stock market while you enjoy free accommodation in PHX that doesn't sound terrible to me. I assume you'd either not over stay a tourist visa or deal with longer term immigration issues.

[Heckler]

Thing for me is, good luck ever getting back into the ownership market once you pull out.

[sasha520]

@Heckler you're totally right. That's my fear.

Sure, having 650k in the bank will be cool - but what if we have to move to Alberta?!?! lol

[Freedomin5]

Yup, that's one the reasons why we are still hanging onto our condo in Toronto. For us, it's about time to sell that condo. We do still plan to keep a foot in the Toronto property market though, not because we want to live there, but Toronto does tend to appreciate more quickly than, say, Thunder Bay.

[Off the Wheel]

Is Vancouver where you want to end up? Then don't sell.
Do you want to leave Vancouver? Sell!

We always wanted to "get out" and moved to a small mountain town.

Pulled the trigger in 2021. Sold our Burnaby townhouse for $1M (lol), profited $500K, bought a $650K house in what feels like paradise.

It's worked out financially and emotionally. Never been happier.

... but, we wanted to leave.

[sasha520]

If we sell today we will walk out with 650k. 500 of that is pure equity.

We are planning to go travel etc for a year or so and then at that time buy with my parents (who are still in the Vancouver market). Might stay lower mainland but just head east towards hope.

I think the only risk for us right now is that the market could go up and the percentage we own with my parents would go down. Not a huge deal?

We are taking the gamble that whatever potential issues come up in the strata will cost more than what it appreciates in the next year or so.

[sasha520]

Is Vancouver where you want to end up? Then don't sell.
Do you want to leave Vancouver? Sell!

We always wanted to "get out" and moved to a small mountain town.

Pulled the trigger in 2021. Sold our Burnaby townhouse for $1M (lol), profited $500K, bought a $650K house in what feels like paradise.

It's worked out financially and emotionally. Never been happier.

... but, we wanted to leave.

What mountain paradise town? We are looking. The lower mainland is turning to shit in my opinion.  Just hate the snow lol

[rocketpj]

I almost don't want to mention this, but we left the Vancouver market for the Sunshine Coast about 15 years ago, and it was a great move.  Close enough to the city, but for whatever reason Vancouver people perceive the ferry ride as akin to summiting Everest and so most never come.  Properties are 40% cheaper, and if you don't want to live in it you could rent it in about 8 seconds as the rental market has almost zero vacancies.

If you don't have to commute to the city for work then it's a fantastic tradeoff.  A couple thousand locals do commute (I did for awhile) and that sucks mightily, so don't do that.

But keep it under your hat.  ;)

[Off the Wheel]

Is Vancouver where you want to end up? Then don't sell.
Do you want to leave Vancouver? Sell!

We always wanted to "get out" and moved to a small mountain town.

Pulled the trigger in 2021. Sold our Burnaby townhouse for $1M (lol), profited $500K, bought a $650K house in what feels like paradise.

It's worked out financially and emotionally. Never been happier.

... but, we wanted to leave.

What mountain paradise town? We are looking. The lower mainland is turning to shit in my opinion.  Just hate the snow lol

We're in the Kootenays. We get a lot of snow though - but that just makes you a better skiier. ;)

[sixwings]

Thing for me is, good luck ever getting back into the ownership market once you pull out.

This is exactly the problem IMO, if you want to live in vancouver again, or think you will want to, why not rent it and have a property management company take care of it while you travel? Gives you more options later.

IMO, the price of real estate in vancouver/victoria is not going to go down significantly any time soon, i think it will probably continue to increase but (hopefully) slower than the last 3-4 years.

[Missy B]

Husband’s work is remote. I could still work if we stay with my parents for a while.
We are 38 and want to take advtange of his remote job and travel the world now while the kids are young. Eventually I’ll be giving up my 60k per year job.

We can live for free in Phoenix at a family condo.

The goal is to just have somewhere that we own when we are done thr adventure. Whether that’s on the island, EI th my parents in the lower mainland, or in AB.

Other investments total 300kish no pensions.

Really it’s the unknown of what the market will do. The townhouse is poorly managed, strata is terrible, and there might be a huge levy for foundations on the horizon. ’s the main reason we are thinking to sell rather than rent it out.

That and we know it’s not our forever home.

I would be prepping to sell, in your position. Forecast is for rate drops, not a lot but enough to make people think about getting back in. I expect an increase in interest coming into late spring.

[sasha520]

Just a little update. I sold the house. Time will tell whether my gamble paid off I guess. Seems like rates are going to hold or even increase, so my bet is still that the housing market will go down....

[Missy B]

Congratulations. I hope its a relief to have the decision made and be out of the risky situation with possible assessments.

[sasha520]

Congratulations. I hope its a relief to have the decision made and be out of the risky situation with possible assessments.

Thank you! Yes- it actually feels great to know that my poorly run strata has no say over my life anymore :)

[Missy B]

So one of my clients today got word from their landlord that the property they lived in for 20 years  (Dunbar) will be listed immediately for sale with the goal of completion by June 24th. They have an exit plan; most tenants in this position won't.

Pretty much everybody with substantial capital gains who was thinking of selling at some point now has a very good reason to sell immediately instead of in some much longer time frame. Curious to see how much comes on the market. If the sales go through, we'll see a surge of tenant displacements, disproportionately from long-held, affordable rentals owned by middle-class seniors who want the proceeds to go to their kids and their own downpayments instead of the spiralling black hole of govt debt.

But that's how our government helps tenants. And doesn't tax the middle class :)

[Rockies]

Sure, having 650k in the bank will be cool - but what if we have to move to Alberta?!?! lol

As someone who moved from Vancouver to Alberta, moving here would probably the best thing that could happen to you in terms of your happiness and quality of life! i really loved Alberta and found people to be more open/happy/joyous than in Vancouver. There is so much beautiful scenery from the badlands to the mountains to explore, and housing is cheaper. I also like the weather in alberta a lot more than vancouver, but that is person dependent (bright sunlight improves my mood). And the whole BC idea that Alberta is filled with angry rednecks doesn't really hold much water.

Also all of this depends on where you move in Alberta. Theres a big difference between downtown Calgary and downtown Lloydminister.

Dont mean to spark an interprovincial war here - also have friends who are very happy and live great lives on the lower mainland.

I personally am considering small town Saskatchewan as a potential FIRE option. Seems like some of those communities (Moose Jaw, Lumsden) have exceptional quality of life and low cost of living. People who I have met who grew up in those places said they had exceptional childhoods and qualities of life.

[Missy B]

Sure, having 650k in the bank will be cool - but what if we have to move to Alberta?!?! lol

As someone who moved from Vancouver to Alberta, moving here would probably the best thing that could happen to you in terms of your happiness and quality of life! i really loved Alberta and found people to be more open/happy/joyous than in Vancouver. There is so much beautiful scenery from the badlands to the mountains to explore, and housing is cheaper. I also like the weather in alberta a lot more than vancouver, but that is person dependent (bright sunlight improves my mood). And the whole BC idea that Alberta is filled with angry rednecks doesn't really hold much water.

Also all of this depends on where you move in Alberta. Theres a big difference between downtown Calgary and downtown Lloydminister.

Dont mean to spark an interprovincial war here - also have friends who are very happy and live great lives on the lower mainland.

I personally am considering small town Saskatchewan as a potential FIRE option. Seems like some of those communities (Moose Jaw, Lumsden) have exceptional quality of life and low cost of living. People who I have met who grew up in those places said they had exceptional childhoods and qualities of life.

Having moved from Alberta to BC, I tell the people who are relocating in the other direction that they're making a good move, they can expect to be welcomed socially and of course they already know housing will be better. Even food prices tend to be lower there.
The cyclical oil swings are tough, but I think people are happier there.

[Retire-Canada]

I lived in AB for 17 years before moving to BC ~14 years ago. I wouldn't go back. Moving to BC was one of the best decisions I have made.

[Missy B]

I lived in AB for 17 years before moving to BC ~14 years ago. I wouldn't go back. Moving to BC was one of the best decisions I have made.

Moved to BC, but not the lower mainland right?

[Retire-Canada]

Moved to BC, but not the lower mainland right?

I moved from Calgary to Victoria.

[Stasher]

I lived in AB for 17 years before moving to BC ~14 years ago. I wouldn't go back. Moving to BC was one of the best decisions I have made.

Ditto

Lived in Southern AB and SK combined for 40 years....small town Saskatchewan was ok but living on Vancouver Island is incomparable to anywhere in the world, there is a reason why it is a global relocation destination. Also worked downtown Calgary specifically the final 5 years before I took the FIRE route. All my family is in small town SK or between Olds to Calgary, we are the only ones in BC. We are keeping an eye on Calgary only because our adult children keep talking about moving that way so I'm balancing options. I think the smartest thing is staying here, avoiding winters and like @Retire-Canada invest in an adventure rig to road trip and visit family, kids, grandkids more often then give up our corner of paradise (and strong home equity & house market that would be impossible to get back into)

I'm confused a lot on this cost of living discussion though, especially from a MMM perspective. Outside of housing/property cost IO don't think I could live any cheaper in AB or SK, not even close. As a matter of fact I think it would cost MUCH MUCH more...
Car insurance is govt here, crazy cheap at $700/yr
Property Taxes/water sewer garbage recycling, very fair and comparative to my AB or SK homes
Home Heating !! This is amazing in BC as my house is all electric, my only utility bill ~ I pay $80 equalized monthly. Natural Gas will crush your frugal budget in BC & SK ...lol remember those
Sure gas is .40 cents cheaper in Calgary right now but an MMM follower knows walking, cycling and transit rock ! Drive less & live more
Health Care costs are included in income tax in all western provinces, so thats a wash
Income Tax was way more in SK but less in AB than BC for me....but I'm FI so it doesn't matter as I'm in lower marginal rates now

Lethbridge to Red Deer the entire foothills front range corridor is stunning, living anywhere would be fine and a beautiful gateway to the Rockies, that is where I would move back. But, I'm addicted to the smell of salt air and cedar and the wife and I chat about this, would we ever be able to tear ourselves away from here. Personally the adventure rig is the way to go at this point for us.

As to the original post, moving from the island to the greater Vancouver lower mainland area, my son as part of his reason to want to move next summer to AB says he doesn't like it compared to the island, always busy and built up environment. I don't have any personal experience living in a small seaside town on the island and not the lower mainland.