Election 2022

[middo]

Interesting break up of electorates by the ABC

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-20/federal-election-map-lying/101076016

Thank you for that.  I enjoyed that representation a lot.

[alsoknownasDean]

What's the food on offer at your polling booth like?

I pre polled so missed out on a democracy sausage.

Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

[Fresh Bread]

There was no sausages or cakes at the polling station where I volunteered. Heard about a cake sale at another school but overall a poor show!

[deborah]

How is the social distancing going at your polling booths? When I prepolled the how to vote people definitely weren’t, especially from each other. I’m sure they were all there together for more than 15 minutes!

[Fresh Bread]

How is the social distancing going at your polling booths? When I prepolled the how to vote people definitely weren’t, especially from each other. I’m sure they were all there together for more than 15 minutes!

No we weren't social distancing at all, either the volunteers or the voters. But I don't see much social distancing anywhere any more.

[Fresh Bread]

It felt like it was going Zali's way at the polling booth today. The odds are 1.12/1 this morning which is pretty damn short but you never know. The UAP do have some voters, the volunteers this time were informed and persuasive. I was surprised how many people sought out Labor how-to-vote cards. And a lot of people wanted the Greens ones too. I was sickeningly nice to all voters even the Liberal ones, and I'd say 99% were polite back. Special shout out to the guy who *looked* like he was a stale pale male, but then took the liberal how to vote card and screwed it up and gave it back. Classic!

[happy]

Well that's done, thank heavens. I really dislike all the electioneering in the lead-up. Tonight I will sit back and keep an eye on the results as they come in. I don't have any clear idea of what the likely outcome is. I'm hoping both the major parties get a bit of a kick up the proverbial.

There was a great looking food stall put up by our local primary school with hordes of folks handing out leaflets. I absolutely loath running the gauntlet with people shoving how to vote trees cards in my face. Luckily I spotted the mosh pit as I was looking for a park, so I walked down the back lane and up the side steps completely avoiding it.

Not much mask wearing or social distancing happening, although a few people made space around me when they saw I was wearing a mask.

[Gremlin]

Special shout out to the guy who *looked* like he was a stale pale male, but then took the liberal how to vote card and screwed it up and gave it back. Classic!

I'm not a fan of this, regardless of how anyone votes. Most people there are there because they believe they are making a difference to democracy. I will treat everyone volunteering their time in support of democracy with respect and dignity, even if their political beliefs are a long way from mine. This is just a dick move.

[LonerMatt]

My gf called the One Nation pamphleteer 'racist' which I think was out of line. But what can you do? Sometimes the better half just has to mouth off.

[alsoknownasDean]

Hardly a confidence vote for the Coalition... although with 31% primary nationwide it's hardly a resounding endorsement of Labor either.

Interesting that they're projecting Higgins may go to Labor. I lived there briefly a number of years ago and it was a very strongly Liberal electorate.

[LonerMatt]

I'm hoping for a Labour led hung Parliament that prioritises decisive climate action, not being complete shitheads, ICAC with teeth and housing affordability. Feels like a pretty decent place.

[deborah]

Commitment to the Uluru statement as the first thing albanese says. Astounding!

[Fresh Bread]

Special shout out to the guy who *looked* like he was a stale pale male, but then took the liberal how to vote card and screwed it up and gave it back. Classic!

I'm not a fan of this, regardless of how anyone votes. Most people there are there because they believe they are making a difference to democracy. I will treat everyone volunteering their time in support of democracy with respect and dignity, even if their political beliefs are a long way from mine. This is just a dick move.

Ah unfortunately not everyone is as respectful. I got abused but it was by a 90 year old lady so it wasn't too bad. The Greens got the worst (she was a little old lady who got shouted at by a big man).

[Fresh Bread]

We did it!! It did feel like that today but you never know. Two people *just at my booth* became citizens in the last year to vote for Zali / climate action.

And the other teals - it's so many more than expected, what a night.

[LonerMatt]

Commitment to the Uluru statement as the first thing albanese says. Astounding!

YES! Good on him. That is so good.



Will be interesting to see how the senate works out - I hope ALP and the Greens work well together and there's good stuff to come.

[Malee55]

A big relief to wake and find that the Coalition is out. I was too worried to wait up and find out last night. It looks like a Labor led hung government, though they may pick up enough to govern in their own right,

[happy]

Not a fan of hung parliaments, but in the current political climate its probably the best we can do. From where I am sitting I think a huge climate message has been sent to the big 2, so hopefully this will garner some climate action. At last.

[middo]

We voted around 10:00 am so the sausages would be ready, and we wouldn't miss out.  Last time we got the last couple.  Dog got one too (see pic...)

I am really happy with the election result.  I thing a hung parliament would mean that the new Government has to negotiate, which they will have to do anyway with the senate.  I'm very happy that some of the more extreme conservative candidates seem to have lost their seats or their chances at them. 

I have concerns about where the Liberal party will go now, as while they haven't listened to their moderates for a long time, now they no longer have any moderates.  Dutton as leader would concern me.

[happy]

I have concerns about where the Liberal party will go now, as while they haven't listened to their moderates for a long time, now they no longer have any moderates.  Dutton as leader would concern me.

Indeed, they look to be in serious trouble.

[Fresh Bread]

I have concerns about where the Liberal party will go now, as while they haven't listened to their moderates for a long time, now they no longer have any moderates.  Dutton as leader would concern me.

Indeed, they look to be in serious trouble.

They need to change everything to appeal but I have a horrible feeling they will just wait til everyone is sick of Labour and blaming them for high interest rates, do some horrible attack ads, and get back in on promises of good economic management.

But for now I am very hopeful that we'll get some stuff moving on climate!

[Malee55]

Looking on some Sky opinion pieces, there are some who think they need to be moving more to the right to get back into government. I think they think the public is experimenting with the idea of climate change and all this progressive feel good stuff. The fact that the right wing "freedom" parties did not poll well does not seem to have sunk in. I am hoping that type of thinking is wrong.

[deborah]

A day or so before the election, the liberals said they'd reduce the public service by 30%. The ACT probably has an independent senator and the vote in the Canberra electorate has the greens second rather than the liberals. Funny how that happens.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-23/election-2022-morrison-women-vote/101089978

[alsoknownasDean]

Looking on some Sky opinion pieces, there are some who think they need to be moving more to the right to get back into government. I think they think the public is experimenting with the idea of climate change and all this progressive feel good stuff. The fact that the right wing "freedom" parties did not poll well does not seem to have sunk in. I am hoping that type of thinking is wrong.

I think they will end up moving rightward and targetting outer suburbs and some regional areas. Some previously ultra safe Labor seats have seen a significant drop in their 2PP with UAP/ON getting mid-high single digit percentages. Scullin and Calwell are examples of this.

Look at the breaching of the 'red wall' by the Conservatives in the UK. Or how rust belt states like Ohio have flipped from Democratic to Republican in the last decade.

The prospect of taking a bite out of Labor's base is likely too appealing to them.

Especially with Dutton as opposition leader.

[Fresh Bread]

I just read Turnbull's autobiography and it's clear the the right wing of the Liberals assume everyone thinks like them. Eg they honestly thought they'd win the same sex marriage plebiscite, that's why they wanted it.

This article is not really just about the female voter being ignored, it's about the lack of local candidates, grassroots consultation, kitchen table discussions, finding out what people care about, not what you think they should care about. Whoever can do that, wins the seat. Look at the deputy mayor who has won Fowler.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-23/election-2022-morrison-women-vote/101089978

There was also interesting analysis on ABC about the One Nation vote. It's higher nationally because they put forward more candidates. But in their previously strong areas, they've had a massive swing away. We know people are disaffected & hate the major parties but I wonder if it doesn't necessarily mean they'll vote on the right. They'll vote for whoever tells them they aren't like the usual pollies. Could be ON, UAP but could just as easily be a centrist independent.

[chevy1956]

Fascinating result.

A couple of things from my perspective:-

1. Women have become a force.
2. Climate change has become a big issue.
3. I think the Australian people showed that religion and politics should never mix.

I think 1 & 3 are fantastic but 2 concerns me. I tried to read the IPCC report recently and it was a monolithic mess. The pandemic to me showed how good science is at informing us to make good decisions. The science was fantastic and available for all of us to read and review. The same level of transparency needs to be available for climate change so that we can have educated fact based decision making.

Lastly I'm so glad Labor is in power. I'm not political but Morrison and the Libs were on the nose.

[Gremlin]

Not sure how much further federal labour could get from unions....

Just wanted to circle back on this. Annabel Crabb has written an excellent article today. The final quarter of the article ties in to some of this re the factional decisions driven by unions in how senior positions are divvied up within a Labor Government.  Like Annabel, I’d love to see ministerial positions decided on capability.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-26/australian-election-voters-rage-despair-major-parties-on-notice/101095010

[Fresh Bread]

Not sure how much further federal labour could get from unions....

Just wanted to circle back on this. Annabel Crabb has written an excellent article today. The final quarter of the article ties in to some of this re the factional decisions driven by unions in how senior positions are divvied up within a Labor Government.  Like Annabel, I’d love to see ministerial positions decided on capability.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-26/australian-election-voters-rage-despair-major-parties-on-notice/101095010

It does sound a lot like young adult fiction with the competing factions. Crabb says that the factions were livid that Rudd chose his own cabinet but then again he was also very difficult to work with. What will happen to Albanese if ignores the factions? He's supposed to be a master negotiator and he was pretty clear in his victory speech that he was going to have order in this government. I guess we can only wait and see. Presumably they have learnt *some* lessons after the Rudd - Gillard - Rudd debacle.

I wish they'd hurry up and finish counting, I can't wait another week to know if it's minority or majority. If it's a minority and they have to negotiate a lot with the teals and Greens the government is going to feel more female which would help with that aspect if Albanese doesn't manage the 50/50 gender split.

[middo]

Not sure how much further federal labour could get from unions....

Just wanted to circle back on this. Annabel Crabb has written an excellent article today. The final quarter of the article ties in to some of this re the factional decisions driven by unions in how senior positions are divvied up within a Labor Government.  Like Annabel, I’d love to see ministerial positions decided on capability.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-26/australian-election-voters-rage-despair-major-parties-on-notice/101095010

Having seen how that worked for the last government under Scott Morrison, and how the "capable" ministers such as Stewart Roberts and Richard Colbeck (I could go on) performed, maybe there isn't a right or wrong way to do this?

[Gremlin]

Not sure how much further federal labour could get from unions....

Just wanted to circle back on this. Annabel Crabb has written an excellent article today. The final quarter of the article ties in to some of this re the factional decisions driven by unions in how senior positions are divvied up within a Labor Government.  Like Annabel, I’d love to see ministerial positions decided on capability.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-26/australian-election-voters-rage-despair-major-parties-on-notice/101095010

Having seen how that worked for the last government under Scott Morrison, and how the "capable" ministers such as Stewart Roberts and Richard Colbeck (I could go on) performed, maybe there isn't a right or wrong way to do this?

I disagree with the implied that they were Ministers on merit and not some outworking of the back room factional trade-off within the Liberal Party.  This is the “Blue” version of the same problem that the Labor Party also have…

[Gremlin]

At the risk of being labelled a necroposter, I came across this report the other day.  It's an interesting read if you're into the political landscape.

https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2022-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf

I was particularly interested in the section on socio-demographics (Section 4).  I'd read before that Females were significantly less likely to vote for the Coalition than Males (30% compared to 38%).  I'd also heard about the Millenial/Gen Z problem where voters now no longer seem to be drifting from Centre-Left to Centre-Right as they hit their 30s.  That made sense to me. 

But one thing that really stood out, and probably highlights the difficulties that the Coalition (the Liberal Party in particular) now face, was the distribution by income.  The Coalition's share of vote now DECLINES as income increases.  Only 30% of those earning more than $140k a year voted Coalition.  In fact, the over $140k demographic is the one where Labor has the biggest margin over the Coalition (+5%).  In addition to that, it's also the demographic that is most likely to vote Green.  By dint of where they were elected, clearly also Teal as well (although the Teals are not split out separately from "Other" in the analysis).

[Fresh Bread]

It looks like Millennials don't put 'the economy' ahead of other issues.

The whole thing about drifting right has never sat well with me. Anecdotally, I see myself and my friends doubling down on our positions, be it left or right. It might be a feature of how we get our info these days and therefore it would be more pronounced in younger generations who have only ever had their info curated by algorithms.   

[middo]

It looks like Millennials don't put 'the economy' ahead of other issues.

The whole thing about drifting right has never sat well with me. Anecdotally, I see myself and my friends doubling down on our positions, be it left or right. It might be a feature of how we get our info these days and therefore it would be more pronounced in younger generations who have only ever had their info curated by algorithms.

I have heard an explanation that "moving to the right" happens as people accumulate wealth through owning their own home.  They have more to lose, so are more concerned about the running of the economy.  However, many in their 40's and 50's are now seeing that either they will never own a home, or their children will really struggle to own a home.  They are more interested then in other aspects of politics, such as environment or social redistribution of wealth.

[Fresh Bread]

It looks like Millennials don't put 'the economy' ahead of other issues.

The whole thing about drifting right has never sat well with me. Anecdotally, I see myself and my friends doubling down on our positions, be it left or right. It might be a feature of how we get our info these days and therefore it would be more pronounced in younger generations who have only ever had their info curated by algorithms.

I have heard an explanation that "moving to the right" happens as people accumulate wealth through owning their own home.  They have more to lose, so are more concerned about the running of the economy.  However, many in their 40's and 50's are now seeing that either they will never own a home, or their children will really struggle to own a home.  They are more interested then in other aspects of politics, such as environment or social redistribution of wealth.

I get this, but also - because I'm wealthy, the state of the economy doesn't affect my quality of life. Mustachians would be outliers here.

[happy]

I'm not very good at politics, because I don't like to spend my time fretting about it. However, I've never thought demographics predicted the outcome, so this is a new slant for me. I always looked at it from  a party politics stance. Whats obvious to me is that society has moved on ( whatever the age/ SES etc and the Coalition has not.