Author Topic: Election 2022  (Read 2527 times)

marty998

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Election 2022
« on: November 05, 2021, 02:01:42 AM »
I can't say I've ever been the activist type. Engaged, yes. Knowledgeable, yes. Protesting by chaining myself to heritage buildings marked for demolition, no. But that's all changed.

I'm fed up. The alleged lies being told every single day. The alleged corruption on water, land sales, property deals. The alleged harbouring of alleged rapists in the Ministry. The monumental waste of pork barrelling. The two-fifths of nothing being done for the environment.

A couple of days ago I found myself in the middle of a strategy session with the person who is putting themselves forward as an Independent Candidate to oust our disgraceful member of parliament. Our MP whose sole contribution has been to peddle lies, misinformation and crap on facebook and twitter for the last few years. He's now been banned from most social media platforms because of the garbage he puts out.

For the past few months I've been helping a team analyse polling data for the electorate to figure out how to target the efforts and what we need to do to win. I donated $500 to kickstart the initial fundraising and our candidate goes public with a campaign launch on 14 November. It's really really exciting to be involved and I know we're going to make a huge splash at the election when it is called!

I know there's a lot of you out there who are similarly fed up, embarrassed and demoralised by the government we have. It doesn't have to be this way. If you've ever found yourself lamenting the sorry state of politics in this country, join your local Independent "Voices of" or "We are" group and be the change you want to see.

And if you are already involved, I'd like to hear from you about your experiences to date too!

marty998

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2021, 08:41:04 PM »
Too soon to talk about this? :D

Our candidate is live, and our campaign shirts are already getting traction and visibility in the street. There's a real mood for change across all of Sydney - another independent Allegra Zampetti is putting herself forward in Wentworth.

The Liberals have already showed their hand trying to dismiss us all as noisy greenies in purple shirts. Truth is, most of us vote Liberal and are sick of that sort of arrogant spin and nonsense.

On we go!

happy

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2021, 12:22:30 AM »
I describe myself as a-political, mainly because I can't stand all the lies, spin, misleading media coverage etc, etc. COVID made me more politically aware than before, due to the necessity of keeping up to date with what was going on.

As usual I'm not impressed by any of the major parties. I will look for a sound alternative if there is one, or else donkey vote. I live in a safe labour seat, so whatever I do doesn't really make much difference..

alsoknownasDean

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2021, 03:06:49 AM »
There'll be a lot of interesting things in this election cycle.

- Will there be some more urban traditionally blue-ribbon Liberal seats that go to independents due to Coalition policies on climate change? A couple of other  Sydney seats in addition to Warringah, or potentially Higgins, Goldstein or Kooyong in Victoria?
- Will the departure of Joel Fitzgibbon mean the Hunter falls out of ALP hands?
- What influence do the UAP or similar right-wing parties have, especially in the Senate?
- Does Albanese have the cut-through with voters to win?
- Is the ALP small-target approach this time around going to be more successful than the approach in 2019?
- Morrison's made some mis-steps lately, will that affect his standing among voters?
- Will voters in particular states take their anger towards their state governments out on the Feds at the ballot box?
- Conversely, will Mark McGowan's popularity in WA translate into votes at Federal level?

We'll know the answer to all of these soon after the election.

happy

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2021, 01:41:46 PM »
All good questions! I admit to a twitch more interest than usual in how this cycle unfolds.

LonerMatt

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2021, 02:04:06 PM »
I am so sick of Scott Morrison. His entire government appalls me: from the well publicised just absenteeism, to the sexism, to the blocking of a Federal anti-corruption body again. I can't stand the guy, the nihilism he stands for, or his speaking to the lowest common denominator approach. He truly embodies the 'don't argue with an idiot, they'll drag you down and beat you with experience' mantra.

I honestly see how anyone, even people who are conservative, could look at his tenure in government and have anything, even a single thing, to feel moderately proud of.

For me, key questions are:
- Can the LNP keep trying to thread the needle between city Liberals and rural Nationals?
- Can the LNP slide over to Australia's far right without alienating their middle-ground?
- What effect has COVID, which is a federal failure picked up by States, had on enduring popularity of parties?
- Does Australia yet give enough of a shit to make this a THIRD climate election?
- Will rising inqueality, brought on by LNP policies, galvanise more people?
- Have the Federal LNP mis-handling of two national disasters damaged their credibility at all?

« Last Edit: November 23, 2021, 02:08:11 PM by LonerMatt »

Fresh Bread

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2021, 10:20:20 PM »
Only just seen this thread - I follow the Hughes campaign on FB. I have high hopes!

I'm in Warringah and joined the Zali team but only right near the end so don't have much advice.

One thing we did was to be visible. A lot of tshirt wearing and also regular walks in groups through the local area wearing the tees. And being brave with the front garden signage. It was all about showing that the average liberal voting resident was voting Zali and not just a bunch of greenies, so that other people felt that it was an option for them too. I have small business and I just wore the shirt to work "oh who are you voting for, Freshie :P"

On election day I was at a polling centre doing the how-to-votes etc and one old-white-straight Liberal guy said that he totally gets that climate change is a thing but it will be dealt with (hmmmm) but overall his point was one of respect ie you should vote for Abbott because he was a PM once. Um, no.  I raise this because at least you don't have the respect thing with Kelly. Anyone that actually respects him might have already have switched to UAP before he did.

My biggest worry with the election is UAP / One Nation. When disaffected people give up on the major parties it seems like a good chance they will pick another 'brand' that they've heard of and that promises them what they want, rather than actually reading up on independents.

On the other hand, the money that's going to independents and how early they are getting organised this time makes me feel better because those names will be out there and in the papers.

Zali is on the front foot and preparing for the campaign of lies about her. There's only one reason she ain't got the Climate Bill and Federal ICAC through and it's the coalition. No point voting for a moderate small liberal like Dave Sharma who says all the right things during the campaign if they won't cross the floor. 

The Liberals still haven't decided on the Warringah candidate. AFAIK it's between some guy that works for PwC or a small L youngish woman who is a lawyer, volunteers for refugees & is a lifesaver and is on the board of a homeless charity. It's pretty fucking obvious to me who they should pick going against Zali. Obviously I hope they completely stuff it up and parachute in some right-wing Hillsong dude. Some apparently are hoping for Gladys, assuming she clears her name.
« Last Edit: November 23, 2021, 10:23:46 PM by Fresh Bread »

kei te pai

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2021, 10:51:39 PM »
Watching and listening from across the ditch. Dont always understand Australian politics but it has a certain fascination, a gobsmacking quality which is hard to believe at times!

MMMaybe

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #8 on: December 05, 2021, 02:42:39 AM »
I'm in a high profile Lib seat and I'm going to be volunteering for a independent who will be running against a LNP big wig. I've lived abroad for a long time ( returned recently) and I'm depressed at how out of reach a normal middle class life is now and how housing has sucked the life out of this country.

Mind you the ALP are not much better than the LNP - all about Big Australia and pumping up housing. No real choice, unless you are already wealthy.

Fresh Bread

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #9 on: December 05, 2021, 02:54:49 AM »
The independent candidate in Mackellar launched today and also Zali Steggall launched her campaign to retain her Warringah seat. The Warringah Liberals are not choosing a candidate til mid-January because apparently Gladys will know whether she's guilty or not by then even though it won't be public. It's going to be very exciting.

LonerMatt

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #10 on: December 05, 2021, 12:35:23 PM »
Gladys might not know if she's guilty yet but everyone else in the nation knows.

marty998

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #11 on: December 08, 2021, 05:45:36 AM »
@Fresh Bread thanks for following us! We Are Hughes and Linda Seymour are going to be running hard all the way to Election Day and beyond. We just held a live Q and A session which was well received and attended.

If you’d be so kind as to donate to us we’d be really grateful!

@MMMaybe well done for getting involved! Change only happens when people stand up to make it happen.

Dropbear

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #12 on: December 18, 2021, 11:49:01 PM »
I couldn't agree more with the concerns about our government's corruption, lies, failures to act on climate, mistreating of women, and their absolute disinterest in governing for any reason but for their own re-election next time.

That said, although the opposition are clearly better, they're still beholden to their fossil fuel donors, so we really need a strong and sensible crossbench who can "keep the bastards honest"!

So I joined the local Voices group and joined in a Kitchen Table Conversation.  That was refreshing!

We now have a fine independent candidate, so I'll be supporting her.

This will only be the second time that I've been active politically.  The first time was last time - supporting Kerryn Phelps - which was so close to the wire...  But the grassroots independents movement is a lot better known and resourced now, so that's promising.  Besides, it was really interesting to be involved at the polling booths.

So if anyone is thinking about getting in touch with their local Voices group or their local independent candidate, then please do it, you won't be disappointed!

Dropbear

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #13 on: December 19, 2021, 12:05:58 AM »
Interesting questions.

- Can the LNP keep trying to thread the needle between city Liberals and rural Nationals?

They might try, but probably not successfully I reckon.  The truism that "They vote the same as Barnaby" has a real kick to it!

- Can the LNP slide over to Australia's far right without alienating their middle-ground?

Well they already have slid over, both the Nationals and the Liberals have moved right.  So probably not, because they lost Warringah, and are seriously scared of losing more "blue-ribbon" seats.  There's a lot of disaffection.

- What effect has COVID, which is a federal failure picked up by States, had on enduring popularity of parties?

Hard to say whether the previous failures will still be in the forefront of people's minds then, especially since the LNP will be trying to do everything they can to move people's attention elsewhere.  Mind you, if the current exponential increases in daily cases in NSW translate to hospital cases several weeks later, people's covid nerves will likely be very raw come election time...

- Does Australia yet give enough of a shit to make this a THIRD climate election?

Climate will only become more important as time goes on, until it gets treated as a genuine crisis.

- Will rising inqueality, brought on by LNP policies, galvanise more people?

It should do, but who knows whether it will?  The parties and the media all seem to treat these sorts of things more in terms of marketing and 'cut-through' than it does about actual policies and the real impacts they have on real people.

- Have the Federal LNP mis-handling of two national disasters damaged their credibility at all?

I dunno, I don't hold a hose, mate!

LonerMatt

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #14 on: December 19, 2021, 03:29:46 AM »
But I wanted answers!

Dropbear

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #15 on: December 20, 2021, 02:22:28 AM »
But I wanted answers!

:D

I want to know what the net effect of all the pork barrelling misuse of public money for political purposes will be?  Will cynical promises for more car parks be rewarded by voters, or will people demand that public money is spent equitably?

marty998

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #16 on: December 30, 2021, 03:31:11 PM »
Fantastic, thanks @Dropbear for getting onboard with your Voices group! It's really quite a wonderful thing to be involved in, isn't it!

In our campaign, I keep meeting and conversing with so many people I would not normally interact with. It's remarkable how people of all different backgrounds, and sections of society can pull together for a common cause.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #17 on: December 30, 2021, 03:52:15 PM »
For my whole lifetime (Gen Xer) it has been seen as worldly and sophisticated to not care about civic life, to be cynical about the prospects for change, and to say "I'm not involved in politics".

I know the tide turns on all trends eventually, and I hoped the tide would turn on this attitude. Perhaps these voices from across the pond are an early indication that the "cool kid cynicism" cultural meme has finally run its course. Let's hope so. Lots of people died. Millions more are in line to die if people don't start getting involved.

My advice is to not expect ANY quick wins and to build a lifestyle around being involved, rather than burning out.

marty998

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #18 on: January 01, 2022, 05:18:13 PM »
For my whole lifetime (Gen Xer) it has been seen as worldly and sophisticated to not care about civic life, to be cynical about the prospects for change, and to say "I'm not involved in politics".

I know the tide turns on all trends eventually, and I hoped the tide would turn on this attitude. Perhaps these voices from across the pond are an early indication that the "cool kid cynicism" cultural meme has finally run its course. Let's hope so. Lots of people died. Millions more are in line to die if people don't start getting involved.

My advice is to not expect ANY quick wins and to build a lifestyle around being involved, rather than burning out.

Agree with the sentiments. Politics here for too long has been left to the dwindling major parties, and the noisy activist rabbles that don't really achieve anything.

Times are changing... our grass roots movement is here for the long haul. We appreciate we might not win this time around, but we are trying to build a movement for the future, not just the current election.

Dropbear

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #19 on: January 05, 2022, 11:03:35 PM »
I thought the The Big Deal (which is on ABC iView https://iview.abc.net.au/show/big-deal) was incredibly interesting, so I recommend it for anyone who is interested in this idea.

They pointed out that the major parties actually want people to feel disaffected and disengaged with politics, because their party's political power is only achieved through the political inactivity of the masses.

Conversely, when communities band together to call for their collective interests, then they are far more numerous and therefore more powerful than the political parties.

This community influence was also evident reading the Snowy River Story by Claire Miller - the story of how the snowy river was effectively strangled by the Snowy Scheme, and how the people of the river were able to secure an agreement between the Victorian, NSW, and Australian Governments to restore environmental water flows to the river.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_River#1990s%E2%80%932000:_Increased_awareness

The big political move the snowy communities made was to elect Craig Ingram in East Gippsland, who was one of three independents who held the balance of power in a Victorian minority government.

So based on that example - and also on Gillard's minority government that made many significant policy developments - it appears that minority governments with sensible independents are the key to ensuring that governments can be forced to be more responsive to the interests of the people.

Fresh Bread

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #20 on: January 10, 2022, 01:10:07 PM »
A right-winger who has appeared on Sky News and seems to think Zali Steggall is a climate extremist has put his hand up to run in Warringah. Bless his heart, as they say in the US.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/surprise-liberal-challenger-emerges-in-warringah-with-working-class-pitch-20220110-p59n5y.html

The article says it's almost certain that Jane Buncle, the lawyer, will run and she will certainly be a strong opponent. The article also says that support for Zali is entrenched and Zali will likely win. Oh I hope so.

I'm going to be such a big bag of nerves come election night, already have the jitters!

grantoz

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #21 on: January 11, 2022, 10:19:42 PM »
My impression (and I live in Warringah) is that Zali has been a great local member - she is engaged with both local and national issues, and communicates with the electorate really well - I'm always pleased to received her newsletters and emails.

Even in a blue-blooded seat like this, I think the Liberals are going to find it hard going - people are pretty racked off with the current mob, and with good reason.

Dropbear

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #22 on: January 12, 2022, 12:02:26 AM »
Indeed.

"The lateness of the preselection, along with the failed attempts by Mr Morrison to recruit former premiers Mike Baird and Gladys Berejiklian as candidates, are believed to be factors in the relative lack of interest from other Liberals - though Ms Steggall’s entrenched support and widely expected victory are also relevant." (From the SMH article linked above.)

Maybe there are other relevant factors for this relative lack of interest, such as:
  • Scott Morrison
  • Barnaby Joyce
  • Peter Dutton
After all, what right-minded right-winger would want to associate with these corrupt boofheads?

I would love to be represented by someone genuinely honourable, such as Zali.  I hope that Zali's turquoise team are back in force this year to help her through.  Zali appears to be in a very good position this time, but Kerryn Phelps only missed being reelected by a smidgen last time...  So I too will be tense on election night.

How much different would Australia have been over the last 3 years had Scott Morrison not had his one-seat majority, courtesy of seats such as Wentworth falling to the Liberals?

LonerMatt

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #23 on: January 12, 2022, 03:28:54 AM »

How much different would Australia have been over the last 3 years had Scott Morrison not had his one-seat majority, courtesy of seats such as Wentworth falling to the Liberals?

I find this a really despairing Q.

Cop26, pandemic, bushfires, sexism, leadership, etc.

Just when you think old Scotty Morrison has hit a low he does something just so uninspired again.

mjr

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #24 on: January 13, 2022, 09:07:27 PM »
I've been quiet until for now, but the Anti-LNP rhetoric is getting too much.

You realise that you lot wailing and bemoaning and despairing how terrible the LNP is are in the minority, don't you ?  Since the war, 19 Parliaments have had the LNP in charge and the ALP only 10.  Add in the pre-war figures and the difference is even more stark.  Australians elect conservative federal governments twice as often as social democrat ones

I have no love for ScoMo, but not for the reasons you do.  I'm in Dutton's electorate, but he's not getting my first preference because of the Government signing up to "net zero" to appease the climate change lobby.  I'm hoping the LIberal Democrats field a candidate in DIckson.  Dutton will get in and that's OK, I mostly like him, but I'll have sent my message to stop drifting left.

As for opening topic of this post, sorry, but I have no time for Holmes a Court led "voices of" groups.  All women candidates, by design, which is sexism by any definition.  All targetting only LNP-held seats, independent my arse.  Single issue, namely climate change, which is a waste of time.  You want to pay more for power then do so, stop making it more expensive for the rest of us.

The 2 party system is a long way from perfect and I have the same complaints about it as you do.  But it persists.  Here, in Canada, the US and the UK.  Windsor and Oakeshott were the last independents to truly make a dfference to how parliament ran and that particular government was a disaster.

As far as the faux outrage about bushfires, pandemic, cop26, parliamentary rapists, give it a rest.  Exaggerated talking points which add nothing to a reasonable debate.  Leave it in your echo-chamber facebook posts.  Sheesh.

I mention this here, not because I plan on debating the issues, but to point out that there are plenty of the silent majorty who don't agree with you.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2022, 09:14:03 PM by mjr »

Fresh Bread

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #25 on: January 13, 2022, 10:18:27 PM »
As far as the faux outrage about bushfires, pandemic, cop26, parliamentary rapists, give it a rest.  Exaggerated talking points which add nothing to a reasonable debate.  Leave it in your echo-chamber facebook posts.  Sheesh.

Faux outrage about rape? No-one on this thread has mentioned rapists except you.

LonerMatt

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #26 on: January 14, 2022, 12:16:41 PM »
That line really says it all, doesn't it? Amazing that it's tough for some to think others might have a problem with assault!

Dropbear

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #27 on: January 14, 2022, 11:59:30 PM »
I mention this here, not because I plan on debating the issues...

Sounds like your mind is made up then.

However, while it may be that you know plenty of people in your area who share your views, please don't assume that your views constitute a "majority" across the whole country, or that some people aren't genuinely "outraged" with the government.

From lots of conversations across my area, it is clear to see that lots of people share significant concerns with what is happening (or not happening) in federal politics.  Now I don't know whether people with these views in my electorate are in the majority or not, and the point is that neither do you.  We shall see what happens come the election in a couple of months time.

That said, in terms of finding some common ground...

The 2 party system is a long way from perfect...

...I think the system has plenty of room for improvement too!

Note that parties aren't mentioned at all in the Australian Constitution (Source: https://questions.peo.gov.au/questions/are-political-parties-mentioned-or-written-in-the-australian-constitution/22).  So there is no rule that gives these two groups any special status, only the effect of Duverger's Law (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law), where electoral systems that have a single winner in each seat cause the emergence of major parties and marginalise the smaller parties over time.

We do have "two party preferred" results, but that refers to two "parties" as in two "candidates" for the allocation of preferential voting - see this short but enlightening video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bleyX4oMCgM.

How could the system be improved?  With so many challenging issues facing our democracy, I think the most promising solutions are those that create more democracy - more opportunities for the Australian people to have more influence in shaping federal policies.

So yes, if we're not satisfied with what the two major parties are offering, then we shouldn't vote for them!

Dropbear

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #28 on: January 15, 2022, 01:03:39 AM »
Moving on, while polls only appear to have rough indicative value, these graphs - as of early December - are interesting:



Primary Vote

- The coalition is falling rapidly
- Labor is slowly rising / recently steady
- "Other" is rising rapidly

(It's a real shame that "other" doesn't separate independents from minor parties...)



Two-Party Preferred

And yet, this graph shows a very similar shaped blue curve to the one above, which appears to suggest that the increasing dissatisfaction with the government is a significant factor in Labor's gains.

Still, apparently this election is unlikely to show such a uniform swing one way or the other due to the potential for locally-based variability across many seats.

Whoever can count to 76 will be able to form government - whether that's a single party or a crossbench consortium.

Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election
« Last Edit: January 15, 2022, 01:05:21 AM by Dropbear »

grantoz

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Re: Election 2022
« Reply #29 on: January 15, 2022, 10:18:22 PM »
As far as the faux outrage about bushfires, pandemic, cop26, parliamentary rapists, give it a rest.  Exaggerated talking points which add nothing to a reasonable debate.  Leave it in your echo-chamber facebook posts.  Sheesh.

I don't have faux outrage about this government's absolutely pathetic response to the bushfires, the pandemic, to rapists and a culture of sexual abuse in our highest seat of power, and not taking action on decarbonisation.  I'm absolutely bloody livid about all of them.  Nothing fake or faux about it at all, and almost everybody I know is too.  And I know plenty of people from both ends of the political spectrum.