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Around the World => Australia Discussion => Topic started by: marty998 on November 05, 2021, 02:01:42 AM
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I can't say I've ever been the activist type. Engaged, yes. Knowledgeable, yes. Protesting by chaining myself to heritage buildings marked for demolition, no. But that's all changed.
I'm fed up. The alleged lies being told every single day. The alleged corruption on water, land sales, property deals. The alleged harbouring of alleged rapists in the Ministry. The monumental waste of pork barrelling. The two-fifths of nothing being done for the environment.
A couple of days ago I found myself in the middle of a strategy session with the person who is putting themselves forward as an Independent Candidate to oust our disgraceful member of parliament. Our MP whose sole contribution has been to peddle lies, misinformation and crap on facebook and twitter for the last few years. He's now been banned from most social media platforms because of the garbage he puts out.
For the past few months I've been helping a team analyse polling data for the electorate to figure out how to target the efforts and what we need to do to win. I donated $500 to kickstart the initial fundraising and our candidate goes public with a campaign launch on 14 November. It's really really exciting to be involved and I know we're going to make a huge splash at the election when it is called!
I know there's a lot of you out there who are similarly fed up, embarrassed and demoralised by the government we have. It doesn't have to be this way. If you've ever found yourself lamenting the sorry state of politics in this country, join your local Independent "Voices of" or "We are" group and be the change you want to see.
And if you are already involved, I'd like to hear from you about your experiences to date too!
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Too soon to talk about this? :D
Our candidate is live, and our campaign shirts are already getting traction and visibility in the street. There's a real mood for change across all of Sydney - another independent Allegra Zampetti is putting herself forward in Wentworth.
The Liberals have already showed their hand trying to dismiss us all as noisy greenies in purple shirts. Truth is, most of us vote Liberal and are sick of that sort of arrogant spin and nonsense.
On we go!
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I describe myself as a-political, mainly because I can't stand all the lies, spin, misleading media coverage etc, etc. COVID made me more politically aware than before, due to the necessity of keeping up to date with what was going on.
As usual I'm not impressed by any of the major parties. I will look for a sound alternative if there is one, or else donkey vote. I live in a safe labour seat, so whatever I do doesn't really make much difference..
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There'll be a lot of interesting things in this election cycle.
- Will there be some more urban traditionally blue-ribbon Liberal seats that go to independents due to Coalition policies on climate change? A couple of other Sydney seats in addition to Warringah, or potentially Higgins, Goldstein or Kooyong in Victoria?
- Will the departure of Joel Fitzgibbon mean the Hunter falls out of ALP hands?
- What influence do the UAP or similar right-wing parties have, especially in the Senate?
- Does Albanese have the cut-through with voters to win?
- Is the ALP small-target approach this time around going to be more successful than the approach in 2019?
- Morrison's made some mis-steps lately, will that affect his standing among voters?
- Will voters in particular states take their anger towards their state governments out on the Feds at the ballot box?
- Conversely, will Mark McGowan's popularity in WA translate into votes at Federal level?
We'll know the answer to all of these soon after the election.
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All good questions! I admit to a twitch more interest than usual in how this cycle unfolds.
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I am so sick of Scott Morrison. His entire government appalls me: from the well publicised just absenteeism, to the sexism, to the blocking of a Federal anti-corruption body again. I can't stand the guy, the nihilism he stands for, or his speaking to the lowest common denominator approach. He truly embodies the 'don't argue with an idiot, they'll drag you down and beat you with experience' mantra.
I honestly see how anyone, even people who are conservative, could look at his tenure in government and have anything, even a single thing, to feel moderately proud of.
For me, key questions are:
- Can the LNP keep trying to thread the needle between city Liberals and rural Nationals?
- Can the LNP slide over to Australia's far right without alienating their middle-ground?
- What effect has COVID, which is a federal failure picked up by States, had on enduring popularity of parties?
- Does Australia yet give enough of a shit to make this a THIRD climate election?
- Will rising inqueality, brought on by LNP policies, galvanise more people?
- Have the Federal LNP mis-handling of two national disasters damaged their credibility at all?
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Only just seen this thread - I follow the Hughes campaign on FB. I have high hopes!
I'm in Warringah and joined the Zali team but only right near the end so don't have much advice.
One thing we did was to be visible. A lot of tshirt wearing and also regular walks in groups through the local area wearing the tees. And being brave with the front garden signage. It was all about showing that the average liberal voting resident was voting Zali and not just a bunch of greenies, so that other people felt that it was an option for them too. I have small business and I just wore the shirt to work "oh who are you voting for, Freshie :P"
On election day I was at a polling centre doing the how-to-votes etc and one old-white-straight Liberal guy said that he totally gets that climate change is a thing but it will be dealt with (hmmmm) but overall his point was one of respect ie you should vote for Abbott because he was a PM once. Um, no. I raise this because at least you don't have the respect thing with Kelly. Anyone that actually respects him might have already have switched to UAP before he did.
My biggest worry with the election is UAP / One Nation. When disaffected people give up on the major parties it seems like a good chance they will pick another 'brand' that they've heard of and that promises them what they want, rather than actually reading up on independents.
On the other hand, the money that's going to independents and how early they are getting organised this time makes me feel better because those names will be out there and in the papers.
Zali is on the front foot and preparing for the campaign of lies about her. There's only one reason she ain't got the Climate Bill and Federal ICAC through and it's the coalition. No point voting for a moderate small liberal like Dave Sharma who says all the right things during the campaign if they won't cross the floor.
The Liberals still haven't decided on the Warringah candidate. AFAIK it's between some guy that works for PwC or a small L youngish woman who is a lawyer, volunteers for refugees & is a lifesaver and is on the board of a homeless charity. It's pretty fucking obvious to me who they should pick going against Zali. Obviously I hope they completely stuff it up and parachute in some right-wing Hillsong dude. Some apparently are hoping for Gladys, assuming she clears her name.
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Watching and listening from across the ditch. Dont always understand Australian politics but it has a certain fascination, a gobsmacking quality which is hard to believe at times!
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I'm in a high profile Lib seat and I'm going to be volunteering for a independent who will be running against a LNP big wig. I've lived abroad for a long time ( returned recently) and I'm depressed at how out of reach a normal middle class life is now and how housing has sucked the life out of this country.
Mind you the ALP are not much better than the LNP - all about Big Australia and pumping up housing. No real choice, unless you are already wealthy.
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The independent candidate in Mackellar launched today and also Zali Steggall launched her campaign to retain her Warringah seat. The Warringah Liberals are not choosing a candidate til mid-January because apparently Gladys will know whether she's guilty or not by then even though it won't be public. It's going to be very exciting.
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Gladys might not know if she's guilty yet but everyone else in the nation knows.
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@Fresh Bread thanks for following us! We Are Hughes and Linda Seymour are going to be running hard all the way to Election Day and beyond. We just held a live Q and A session which was well received and attended.
If you’d be so kind as to donate to us we’d be really grateful!
@MMMaybe well done for getting involved! Change only happens when people stand up to make it happen.
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I couldn't agree more with the concerns about our government's corruption, lies, failures to act on climate, mistreating of women, and their absolute disinterest in governing for any reason but for their own re-election next time.
That said, although the opposition are clearly better, they're still beholden to their fossil fuel donors, so we really need a strong and sensible crossbench who can "keep the bastards honest"!
So I joined the local Voices group and joined in a Kitchen Table Conversation. That was refreshing!
We now have a fine independent candidate, so I'll be supporting her.
This will only be the second time that I've been active politically. The first time was last time - supporting Kerryn Phelps - which was so close to the wire... But the grassroots independents movement is a lot better known and resourced now, so that's promising. Besides, it was really interesting to be involved at the polling booths.
So if anyone is thinking about getting in touch with their local Voices group or their local independent candidate, then please do it, you won't be disappointed!
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Interesting questions.
- Can the LNP keep trying to thread the needle between city Liberals and rural Nationals?
They might try, but probably not successfully I reckon. The truism that "They vote the same as Barnaby" has a real kick to it!
- Can the LNP slide over to Australia's far right without alienating their middle-ground?
Well they already have slid over, both the Nationals and the Liberals have moved right. So probably not, because they lost Warringah, and are seriously scared of losing more "blue-ribbon" seats. There's a lot of disaffection.
- What effect has COVID, which is a federal failure picked up by States, had on enduring popularity of parties?
Hard to say whether the previous failures will still be in the forefront of people's minds then, especially since the LNP will be trying to do everything they can to move people's attention elsewhere. Mind you, if the current exponential increases in daily cases in NSW translate to hospital cases several weeks later, people's covid nerves will likely be very raw come election time...
- Does Australia yet give enough of a shit to make this a THIRD climate election?
Climate will only become more important as time goes on, until it gets treated as a genuine crisis.
- Will rising inqueality, brought on by LNP policies, galvanise more people?
It should do, but who knows whether it will? The parties and the media all seem to treat these sorts of things more in terms of marketing and 'cut-through' than it does about actual policies and the real impacts they have on real people.
- Have the Federal LNP mis-handling of two national disasters damaged their credibility at all?
I dunno, I don't hold a hose, mate!
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But I wanted answers!
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But I wanted answers!
:D
I want to know what the net effect of all the pork barrelling misuse of public money for political purposes will be? Will cynical promises for more car parks be rewarded by voters, or will people demand that public money is spent equitably?
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Fantastic, thanks @Dropbear for getting onboard with your Voices group! It's really quite a wonderful thing to be involved in, isn't it!
In our campaign, I keep meeting and conversing with so many people I would not normally interact with. It's remarkable how people of all different backgrounds, and sections of society can pull together for a common cause.
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For my whole lifetime (Gen Xer) it has been seen as worldly and sophisticated to not care about civic life, to be cynical about the prospects for change, and to say "I'm not involved in politics".
I know the tide turns on all trends eventually, and I hoped the tide would turn on this attitude. Perhaps these voices from across the pond are an early indication that the "cool kid cynicism" cultural meme has finally run its course. Let's hope so. Lots of people died. Millions more are in line to die if people don't start getting involved.
My advice is to not expect ANY quick wins and to build a lifestyle around being involved, rather than burning out.
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For my whole lifetime (Gen Xer) it has been seen as worldly and sophisticated to not care about civic life, to be cynical about the prospects for change, and to say "I'm not involved in politics".
I know the tide turns on all trends eventually, and I hoped the tide would turn on this attitude. Perhaps these voices from across the pond are an early indication that the "cool kid cynicism" cultural meme has finally run its course. Let's hope so. Lots of people died. Millions more are in line to die if people don't start getting involved.
My advice is to not expect ANY quick wins and to build a lifestyle around being involved, rather than burning out.
Agree with the sentiments. Politics here for too long has been left to the dwindling major parties, and the noisy activist rabbles that don't really achieve anything.
Times are changing... our grass roots movement is here for the long haul. We appreciate we might not win this time around, but we are trying to build a movement for the future, not just the current election.
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I thought the The Big Deal (which is on ABC iView https://iview.abc.net.au/show/big-deal (https://iview.abc.net.au/show/big-deal)) was incredibly interesting, so I recommend it for anyone who is interested in this idea.
They pointed out that the major parties actually want people to feel disaffected and disengaged with politics, because their party's political power is only achieved through the political inactivity of the masses.
Conversely, when communities band together to call for their collective interests, then they are far more numerous and therefore more powerful than the political parties.
This community influence was also evident reading the Snowy River Story by Claire Miller - the story of how the snowy river was effectively strangled by the Snowy Scheme, and how the people of the river were able to secure an agreement between the Victorian, NSW, and Australian Governments to restore environmental water flows to the river. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_River#1990s%E2%80%932000:_Increased_awareness (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_River#1990s%E2%80%932000:_Increased_awareness)
The big political move the snowy communities made was to elect Craig Ingram in East Gippsland, who was one of three independents who held the balance of power in a Victorian minority government.
So based on that example - and also on Gillard's minority government that made many significant policy developments - it appears that minority governments with sensible independents are the key to ensuring that governments can be forced to be more responsive to the interests of the people.
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A right-winger who has appeared on Sky News and seems to think Zali Steggall is a climate extremist has put his hand up to run in Warringah. Bless his heart, as they say in the US.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/surprise-liberal-challenger-emerges-in-warringah-with-working-class-pitch-20220110-p59n5y.html
The article says it's almost certain that Jane Buncle, the lawyer, will run and she will certainly be a strong opponent. The article also says that support for Zali is entrenched and Zali will likely win. Oh I hope so.
I'm going to be such a big bag of nerves come election night, already have the jitters!
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My impression (and I live in Warringah) is that Zali has been a great local member - she is engaged with both local and national issues, and communicates with the electorate really well - I'm always pleased to received her newsletters and emails.
Even in a blue-blooded seat like this, I think the Liberals are going to find it hard going - people are pretty racked off with the current mob, and with good reason.
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Indeed.
"The lateness of the preselection, along with the failed attempts by Mr Morrison to recruit former premiers Mike Baird and Gladys Berejiklian as candidates, are believed to be factors in the relative lack of interest from other Liberals - though Ms Steggall’s entrenched support and widely expected victory are also relevant." (From the SMH article linked above.)
Maybe there are other relevant factors for this relative lack of interest, such as:
- Scott Morrison
- Barnaby Joyce
- Peter Dutton
After all, what right-minded right-winger would want to associate with these corrupt boofheads?
I would love to be represented by someone genuinely honourable, such as Zali. I hope that Zali's turquoise team are back in force this year to help her through. Zali appears to be in a very good position this time, but Kerryn Phelps only missed being reelected by a smidgen last time... So I too will be tense on election night.
How much different would Australia have been over the last 3 years had Scott Morrison not had his one-seat majority, courtesy of seats such as Wentworth falling to the Liberals?
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How much different would Australia have been over the last 3 years had Scott Morrison not had his one-seat majority, courtesy of seats such as Wentworth falling to the Liberals?
I find this a really despairing Q.
Cop26, pandemic, bushfires, sexism, leadership, etc.
Just when you think old Scotty Morrison has hit a low he does something just so uninspired again.
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I've been quiet until for now, but the Anti-LNP rhetoric is getting too much.
You realise that you lot wailing and bemoaning and despairing how terrible the LNP is are in the minority, don't you ? Since the war, 19 Parliaments have had the LNP in charge and the ALP only 10. Add in the pre-war figures and the difference is even more stark. Australians elect conservative federal governments twice as often as social democrat ones
I have no love for ScoMo, but not for the reasons you do. I'm in Dutton's electorate, but he's not getting my first preference because of the Government signing up to "net zero" to appease the climate change lobby. I'm hoping the LIberal Democrats field a candidate in DIckson. Dutton will get in and that's OK, I mostly like him, but I'll have sent my message to stop drifting left.
As for opening topic of this post, sorry, but I have no time for Holmes a Court led "voices of" groups. All women candidates, by design, which is sexism by any definition. All targetting only LNP-held seats, independent my arse. Single issue, namely climate change, which is a waste of time. You want to pay more for power then do so, stop making it more expensive for the rest of us.
The 2 party system is a long way from perfect and I have the same complaints about it as you do. But it persists. Here, in Canada, the US and the UK. Windsor and Oakeshott were the last independents to truly make a dfference to how parliament ran and that particular government was a disaster.
As far as the faux outrage about bushfires, pandemic, cop26, parliamentary rapists, give it a rest. Exaggerated talking points which add nothing to a reasonable debate. Leave it in your echo-chamber facebook posts. Sheesh.
I mention this here, not because I plan on debating the issues, but to point out that there are plenty of the silent majorty who don't agree with you.
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As far as the faux outrage about bushfires, pandemic, cop26, parliamentary rapists, give it a rest. Exaggerated talking points which add nothing to a reasonable debate. Leave it in your echo-chamber facebook posts. Sheesh.
Faux outrage about rape? No-one on this thread has mentioned rapists except you.
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That line really says it all, doesn't it? Amazing that it's tough for some to think others might have a problem with assault!
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I mention this here, not because I plan on debating the issues...
Sounds like your mind is made up then.
However, while it may be that you know plenty of people in your area who share your views, please don't assume that your views constitute a "majority" across the whole country, or that some people aren't genuinely "outraged" with the government.
From lots of conversations across my area, it is clear to see that lots of people share significant concerns with what is happening (or not happening) in federal politics. Now I don't know whether people with these views in my electorate are in the majority or not, and the point is that neither do you. We shall see what happens come the election in a couple of months time.
That said, in terms of finding some common ground...
The 2 party system is a long way from perfect...
...I think the system has plenty of room for improvement too!
Note that parties aren't mentioned at all in the Australian Constitution (Source: https://questions.peo.gov.au/questions/are-political-parties-mentioned-or-written-in-the-australian-constitution/22 (https://questions.peo.gov.au/questions/are-political-parties-mentioned-or-written-in-the-australian-constitution/22)). So there is no rule that gives these two groups any special status, only the effect of Duverger's Law (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law)), where electoral systems that have a single winner in each seat cause the emergence of major parties and marginalise the smaller parties over time.
We do have "two party preferred" results, but that refers to two "parties" as in two "candidates" for the allocation of preferential voting - see this short but enlightening video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bleyX4oMCgM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bleyX4oMCgM).
How could the system be improved? With so many challenging issues facing our democracy, I think the most promising solutions are those that create more democracy - more opportunities for the Australian people to have more influence in shaping federal policies.
So yes, if we're not satisfied with what the two major parties are offering, then we shouldn't vote for them!
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Moving on, while polls only appear to have rough indicative value, these graphs - as of early December - are interesting:
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/14/Australian_federal_election_polling_-_47th_parliament_-_primary.svg/500px-Australian_federal_election_polling_-_47th_parliament_-_primary.svg.png)
Primary Vote
- The coalition is falling rapidly
- Labor is slowly rising / recently steady
- "Other" is rising rapidly
(It's a real shame that "other" doesn't separate independents from minor parties...)
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fb/Australian_federal_election_polling_-_47th_parliament_-_two_party_preferred.svg/500px-Australian_federal_election_polling_-_47th_parliament_-_two_party_preferred.svg.png)
Two-Party Preferred
And yet, this graph shows a very similar shaped blue curve to the one above, which appears to suggest that the increasing dissatisfaction with the government is a significant factor in Labor's gains.
Still, apparently this election is unlikely to show such a uniform swing one way or the other due to the potential for locally-based variability across many seats.
Whoever can count to 76 will be able to form government - whether that's a single party or a crossbench consortium.
Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election)
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As far as the faux outrage about bushfires, pandemic, cop26, parliamentary rapists, give it a rest. Exaggerated talking points which add nothing to a reasonable debate. Leave it in your echo-chamber facebook posts. Sheesh.
I don't have faux outrage about this government's absolutely pathetic response to the bushfires, the pandemic, to rapists and a culture of sexual abuse in our highest seat of power, and not taking action on decarbonisation. I'm absolutely bloody livid about all of them. Nothing fake or faux about it at all, and almost everybody I know is too. And I know plenty of people from both ends of the political spectrum.
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Wow mjr, choosing Brittany Higgins as your hill to die on?
Ooof.
As far as the faux outrage about bushfires, pandemic, cop26, parliamentary rapists, give it a rest. Exaggerated talking points which add nothing to a reasonable debate. Leave it in your echo-chamber facebook posts. Sheesh.
I don't have faux outrage about this government's absolutely pathetic response to the bushfires, the pandemic, to rapists and a culture of sexual abuse in our highest seat of power, and not taking action on decarbonisation. I'm absolutely bloody livid about all of them. Nothing fake or faux about it at all, and almost everybody I know is too. And I know plenty of people from both ends of the political spectrum.
👏👏 well said.
Today it’s been revealed that the Liberals are going to parachute a North Shore based son-of-an-Australian-editor investment banker into my southern Sydney seat of Hughes to replace Craig Kelly.
As if we couldn’t be taken any more for granted.
Vote 1 Linda Seymour.
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Omg it's Alex Dore! That was the guy that was originally keen for Warringah (not the last one I mentioned above that was even worse).
He was a terrible fit for Warringah but I don't know what your electorate is like. You guys did keep re-electing Craig Kelly.
If it was independent vs Craig Kelly (in current full crazy mode) I'd say the independent would win. But this guy, I don't know.
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Omg it's Alex Dore! That was the guy that was originally keen for Warringah (not the last one I mentioned above that was even worse).
He was a terrible fit for Warringah but I don't know what your electorate is like. You guys did keep re-electing Craig Kelly.
If it was independent vs Craig Kelly (in current full crazy mode) I'd say the independent would win. But this guy, I don't know.
Most people had no idea who Craig Kelly was. They just voted Liberal out of fear that Labor will tax the bejeezus out of them. Even though if you look back over the last 30 years taxes as a proportion of GDP have been lower under Labor than the coalition.
Craig Kelly might have had the most popular politician's facebook page in the country (until he got banned) but very very few people in the electorate followed it. It was mostly trolls from Queensland and overseas, or fake bot accounts if you looked closely enough at it.
Basically down here we are not as politically engaged as Warringah. Nor do we have the celebrity factor - I can't name a single person residing here who has a genuinely large national media presence. It makes things like fundraising very difficult too (no we do not have climate 200 money, nor are we "backed" or led by Holmes-a-Court). We're just a small group of agitated people who demand better from our leaders.
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Craig Kelly might have had the most popular politician's facebook page in the country (until he got banned) but very very few people in the electorate followed it. It was mostly trolls from Queensland and overseas, or fake bot accounts if you looked closely enough at it.
Interestingly, Tony Abbott had rabid supporters on his FB page (once he got one), and they mostly from Queensland or outside of the electorate. I always said he should run in Qld, he'd be a dead cert.
I never voted for him but he started losing liberal votes at time of the Marriage Equality vote. A bunch of members tried to stop his preselection because a moderate liberal would easily have won. TA just seemed to have blinkers on, maybe because his suburb is very conservative.
Are there two independent moderate female candidates in Hughes? I'm wondering if the fundraising pot is being split in half.
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Today it’s been revealed that the Liberals are going to parachute a North Shore based son-of-an-Australian-editor investment banker into my southern Sydney seat of Hughes to replace Craig Kelly.
As if we couldn’t be taken any more for granted.
Vote 1 Linda Seymour.
Jobs for the boys, eh? In a morbid way, it's funny that the Liberals demonstrate that they haven't learnt a thing. But for everyone else, it's great that Liberal party remains so tone deaf and so determined to be unrepresentative - it makes the comparison between them and a genuine community representative more stark. I hope that this kind of perspective is helpful for your grassroots movement.
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Craig Kelly might have had the most popular politician's facebook page in the country (until he got banned) but very very few people in the electorate followed it. It was mostly trolls from Queensland and overseas, or fake bot accounts if you looked closely enough at it.
Interestingly, Tony Abbott had rabid supporters on his FB page (once he got one), and they mostly from Queensland or outside of the electorate. I always said he should run in Qld, he'd be a dead cert.
I never voted for him but he started losing liberal votes at time of the Marriage Equality vote. A bunch of members tried to stop his preselection because a moderate liberal would easily have won. TA just seemed to have blinkers on, maybe because his suburb is very conservative.
Are there two independent moderate female candidates in Hughes? I'm wondering if the fundraising pot is being split in half.
Yes there are... the other one got the jump on us and has raised several hundred thousand already - she's quite well connected. Lord knows what she will spend it all on though, be a bit like Clive Palmer, blanketing the electorate with her spam (as she is doing already).
We've raised a modest amount so far in comparison, and have taken no money from any lobby group thus far. So our donations have not come with any strings attached.
Electoral laws are stacked against independent candidates - donors can't claim a tax deduction until the election is called, writs are issued and the candidate is on the ballot paper. Whereas donors to a political party can claim a donation up to $1400 at any time.
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Today it’s been revealed that the Liberals are going to parachute a North Shore based son-of-an-Australian-editor investment banker into my southern Sydney seat of Hughes to replace Craig Kelly.
As if we couldn’t be taken any more for granted.
Vote 1 Linda Seymour.
Jobs for the boys, eh? In a morbid way, it's funny that the Liberals demonstrate that they haven't learnt a thing. But for everyone else, it's great that Liberal party remains so tone deaf and so determined to be unrepresentative - it makes the comparison between them and a genuine community representative more stark. I hope that this kind of perspective is helpful for your grassroots movement.
I hope so too. I also await who the Labor Party will put up as a candidate. In my mind I keep thinking no one here will vote Labor, but they did alright at the recent council elections.
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I've seen billboards advertising Clive's party around the joint for weeks (at least since November).
Why he's spending so much money on advertising in a part of town that's safe Labor territory (or at least where right-leaning politicians don't get many votes) I'm not sure. Perhaps he's gunning for Senate seats.
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I hope so too. I also await who the Labor Party will put up as a candidate. In my mind I keep thinking no one here will vote Labor, but they did alright at the recent council elections.
Preferences will be important. The LNP apparently don't get a great number of preferences outside of small flows from the more 'deplorable' minor parties, so the LNP are more reliant on first preferences.
But the LNP can be beaten by a good candidate who might come second in first preferences, but who takes most of the second preferences from all the other candidates. This happened in the Wentworth byelection, and I think in Indi too. The exception was when Zali beat Tony in first preferences, which really was a thumping.
So it doesn't matter so much who someone preferences as #1 (such as a Labor voter), for as long as they put the Independent above the LNP, then they'll be helping.
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I've seen billboards advertising Clive's party around the joint for weeks (at least since November).
Why he's spending so much money on advertising in a part of town that's safe Labor territory (or at least where right-leaning politicians don't get many votes) I'm not sure. Perhaps he's gunning for Senate seats.
Clive probably wouldn't have any hopes of winning a House of Reps seat... unless he gets another defection from an elected Liberal!
So while Clive might say that he's gunning for a Senate seat, he'll probably be happy to play attack dog on behalf of the Liberal party in the hope that he can again help an LNP government be elected. If this happens, he'll continue receiving highly compliant oversight from an LNP government beholden to reward their fossil fuel donors.
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I've seen billboards advertising Clive's party around the joint for weeks (at least since November).
Why he's spending so much money on advertising in a part of town that's safe Labor territory (or at least where right-leaning politicians don't get many votes) I'm not sure. Perhaps he's gunning for Senate seats.
Clive probably wouldn't have any hopes of winning a House of Reps seat... unless he gets another defection from an elected Liberal!
So while Clive might say that he's gunning for a Senate seat, he'll probably be happy to play attack dog on behalf of the Liberal party in the hope that he can again help an LNP government be elected. If this happens, he'll continue receiving highly compliant oversight from an LNP government beholden to reward their fossil fuel donors.
Palmer’s play is about appealing to the disenfranchised at both ends of political spectrum, then redistributing them to the right thru preferences. It was VERY successful at the last Federal Election. For all the talk of how Palmer spent an eye-watering amount of money and “failed” to win a single seat, his objective wasn’t to win lower house seats, it was anything but a failure of strategy.
As you pointed out in your previous post, in a preferential voting system it’s less about who you put first and more about who you put last that truly matters. Palmer’s strategy relies on the majority of his voters not realising that.
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I got a shock the other day. A man walking down the street at the shops wearing a bright orange tee-shirt saying United Australia and when I did a double take and looked at the back it said "I trust Pauline Hanson". In a safe Labour/Green seat this was something of a shock. Maybe he came to visit from Marty's electorate?
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Happy seeing the bloke who loves Pauline Hanson
(https://imageresizer.static9.net.au/DqVIFDd8rI5crUXFC4h5EH6KKOM=/0x0:1948x1095/500x0/https%3A%2F%2Fprod.static9.net.au%2Ffs%2F3124a9bb-ce71-49e4-a290-ee0f314bbe52)
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I tend to be apolitical in that I either vote Labour or donkey vote.
I'm noticing so much more crazy conservative BS in the world today and it's frustrating. People getting angry with Tame. I think she had a really valid point. She was given AOTY due to her activism against sexual abuse which to me is so bad. Morrison handled the situation extremely poorly (I'm not stating I'd handle it better) and she doesn't smile at Morrison and cops it.
As a middle aged white male I'm basically disgusted in people stating she should have smiled at Morrison. In my opinion she is showing integrity by not playing nice.
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I've seen billboards advertising Clive's party around the joint for weeks (at least since November).
Why he's spending so much money on advertising in a part of town that's safe Labor territory (or at least where right-leaning politicians don't get many votes) I'm not sure. Perhaps he's gunning for Senate seats.
Clive probably wouldn't have any hopes of winning a House of Reps seat... unless he gets another defection from an elected Liberal!
So while Clive might say that he's gunning for a Senate seat, he'll probably be happy to play attack dog on behalf of the Liberal party in the hope that he can again help an LNP government be elected. If this happens, he'll continue receiving highly compliant oversight from an LNP government beholden to reward their fossil fuel donors.
Palmer’s play is about appealing to the disenfranchised at both ends of political spectrum, then redistributing them to the right thru preferences. It was VERY successful at the last Federal Election. For all the talk of how Palmer spent an eye-watering amount of money and “failed” to win a single seat, his objective wasn’t to win lower house seats, it was anything but a failure of strategy.
As you pointed out in your previous post, in a preferential voting system it’s less about who you put first and more about who you put last that truly matters. Palmer’s strategy relies on the majority of his voters not realising that.
Well aware, but I don't think that'll be a huge success in seats around here, many of which the Coalition have a primary vote of under 25% (and under 20% in some). I somehow have my doubts that Palmer would preference the Greens over Labor.
No doubt that UAP preferences may decide some seats.
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I got a shock the other day. A man walking down the street at the shops wearing a bright orange tee-shirt saying United Australia and when I did a double take and looked at the back it said "I trust Pauline Hanson". In a safe Labour/Green seat this was something of a shock. Maybe he came to visit from Marty's electorate?
We don’t have the crazies here Happy! Our MP is the lone Clive supporter out of the 100,000 voters here >_<
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The two recent polls, including today's newspoll both have the current two party preferred at Labor 56%, LNP 44%.
If that continues to the election it would be a bit of a landslide. For reference, it was about the same in mid-late 2018.
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I tend to be apolitical in that I either vote Labour or donkey vote.
I'm noticing so much more crazy conservative BS in the world today and it's frustrating. People getting angry with Tame. I think she had a really valid point. She was given AOTY due to her activism against sexual abuse which to me is so bad. Morrison handled the situation extremely poorly (I'm not stating I'd handle it better) and she doesn't smile at Morrison and cops it.
As a middle aged white male I'm basically disgusted in people stating she should have smiled at Morrison. In my opinion she is showing integrity by not playing nice.
As another middle aged white male, I agree with you. Tame stayed true to herself with her conduct.
Respect must be earned. Morrison hasn't earned any. At least we can be thankful that such actions weren't marked with bullets, as Morrison has previously remarked about people advocating for women's rights!
Thought this was a great article:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/26/a-prime-minister-who-lives-by-the-photo-op-dies-by-the-photo-op-and-grace-tame-owes-scott-morrison-nothing
It's funny that in arranging this photo shoot, Morrison has drawn attention to all the times when he himself has disrespected others - except those instances didn't generate as much ridicule from commentators, perhaps by virtue of his gender and occupation... But I don't consider it acceptable for political parties to tolerate their members going into the houses of parliament to spend so much time shouting at one another and so little time listening to one another.
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The two recent polls, including today's newspoll both have the current two party preferred at Labor 56%, LNP 44%.
If that continues to the election it would be a bit of a landslide. For reference, it was about the same in mid-late 2018.
This is very good news, but there are at least 2x reasons for caution:
1. The Murdoch media.
If the results were the other way around, then there'd be no end to all the articles about Labor's leadership instability, or "vote this mob out" front pages. But for Morrison, it's "is Scomo our person of the year?".
2. We are continually surprised (or unsurprised) at the depths the LNP will sink to in order to maintain their position.
We've already seen Morrison turn on Djokovic like Howard did with the lie about "children overboard". Morrison has also announced the AUKUS pact, even though no deal has been signed. I'm actually quite afraid that Morrison and Dutton might consider starting a war in case that might help them get reelected.
So anything can happen between now and May, whether that's in the media or in real events...
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The two recent polls, including today's newspoll both have the current two party preferred at Labor 56%, LNP 44%.
If that continues to the election it would be a bit of a landslide. For reference, it was about the same in mid-late 2018.
This is very good news, but there are at least 2x reasons for caution:
1. The Murdoch media.
If the results were the other way around, then there'd be no end to all the articles about Labor's leadership instability, or "vote this mob out" front pages. But for Morrison, it's "is Scomo our person of the year?".
2. We are continually surprised (or unsurprised) at the depths the LNP will sink to in order to maintain their position.
We've already seen Morrison turn on Djokovic like Howard did with the lie about "children overboard". Morrison has also announced the AUKUS pact, even though no deal has been signed. I'm actually quite afraid that Morrison and Dutton might consider starting a war in case that might help them get reelected.
So anything can happen between now and May, whether that's in the media or in real events...
I too am fearful of this type of outcome. I can see Dutton salivating at the idea of a conflict in Ukraine as a means of shoring up support.
At least we have our most deadly ship still available, the Ruby Princess. No need to wait 30 years for those subs.
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@Dropbear - I read that article. It was really good. Thank You.
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The two recent polls, including today's newspoll both have the current two party preferred at Labor 56%, LNP 44%.
If that continues to the election it would be a bit of a landslide. For reference, it was about the same in mid-late 2018.
This is very good news, but there are at least 2x reasons for caution:
1. The Murdoch media.
If the results were the other way around, then there'd be no end to all the articles about Labor's leadership instability, or "vote this mob out" front pages. But for Morrison, it's "is Scomo our person of the year?".
2. We are continually surprised (or unsurprised) at the depths the LNP will sink to in order to maintain their position.
We've already seen Morrison turn on Djokovic like Howard did with the lie about "children overboard". Morrison has also announced the AUKUS pact, even though no deal has been signed. I'm actually quite afraid that Morrison and Dutton might consider starting a war in case that might help them get reelected.
So anything can happen between now and May, whether that's in the media or in real events...
I too am fearful of this type of outcome. I can see Dutton salivating at the idea of a conflict in Ukraine as a means of shoring up support.
At least we have our most deadly ship still available, the Ruby Princess. No need to wait 30 years for those subs.
I can't remember ever seeing Labor at 56% TPP, other than when Rudd briefly got to 57%(?)
In any case 56% is a remarkable landslide prediction result that will have Morrison clinging on to the reigns of power for as long as he can, knowing his government is terminal. I don't believe the Murdoch Media has the power it once did.... most people simply don't buy the newspapers anymore, so getting the Murdoch trash all over the dining room table isn't the major problem it once was.
The mood for change is there and it might sweep away all the nascent independent movements in NSW except for Warringah, Wentworth and Bradfield. But Labor hasn't announced a candidate in Hughes, so we fight on!
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Don't forget Sky is free to air in the regions.
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Yeah after 2019 I don't know how much I trust the polling.
Re: Murdoch influence, let's not forget how many people get their news from Facebook etc, often from, let's just say, 'unreliable' sources.
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The LNP now appear to be completely imploding:
- Bitter mudslinging all round.
- Trying to legislate a religious discrimination bill that they can't agree on, and that the majority of Australians don't want.
- And their various factions can't come to an agreement about who their candidates will be, but still they can't risk letting their branches vote on their candidates because some branches have been stacked by right wing fundamentalists.
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I'm glad the religious freedom bill got paused. I hope it gets binned.
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It is starting to look like the PM has lost control of Parliament. Two lost votes now in the last few sitting days, and Parliament is only rostered on for a few days before the election. I think he is trying to avoid Parliament to avoid too many embarrassments. I feel this is a dilution of our democracy.
Grace Tame and Brittney Higgins speech at the press club was well worth a watch if you haven't seen it yet. It is on iview.
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I'm glad the religious freedom bill got paused. I hope it gets binned.
Me too. As a person of faith I've felt fear of discrimination plenty of times. But that bill was/is a shocker! For once I agree with Albanese that people of faith shouldn't be discriminated against but that should not come at the cost of discrimination of others.
It is starting to look like the PM has lost control of Parliament. Two lost votes now in the last few sitting days, and Parliament is only rostered on for a few days before the election. I think he is trying to avoid Parliament to avoid too many embarrassments. I feel this is a dilution of our democracy.
Grace Tame and Brittney Higgins speech at the press club was well worth a watch if you haven't seen it yet. It is on iview.
The government looks to be all over the shop right now. I do think the press are really piling on though, and the PM seems to have lost control of their narrative. I've always marvelled that John Howard managed to stay in as long as he did, but his press management was masterful and in stark contrast to Scomo.
I watched the Tame/Higgins speech and thought it was spot on. I also loved to see Tame annihilate stupid questions from the press.
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The result of that religious bill for me personally is that I'm voting Labour. What a shocker.
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I'm encouraged by how the public has responded to a lot of the LGBTIQ+ focused wedge issues, both the plebiscite and this (there may be more but it's Friday and being a bit of a nufty), seems a lot more folks are generally supportive and sick of debate that potentially harms folks.
Maybe that's just the debate I see, but it's encouraging to see.
I feel similarly about public debate re: indigenous inclusion, government, etc.
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I'm so glad that Morrison's religious discrimination bill failed. It was so terrible to see the government betting with the lives of LGBTIQ+ people, all for a game of political wedgies.
At least this charade appears to have clarified that the rights of the whole community remain paramount, at least for now. If the situation needs any further resolution in the future, then Waleed Aly has an excellent proposal: to withhold government funding from any institution (such as Citipointe) that chooses not to abide by more broadly accepted values. I recommend reading his article:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/there-s-a-solution-to-the-discrimination-bill-balancing-act-but-it-comes-at-a-price-20220210-p59v8t.html
These events have also clarified the true colours of some of the supposed Liberal 'moderates'. When Bridget Archer and other members of the government were crossing the floor, my own supposedly moderate Liberal MP placed his vote with the bigots.
The political infighting isn't over though. There'll be more shenanigans in the Liberal NSW preselections. And I wonder what effect all these state and federal dramas will be having on the four NSW byelections this weekend? We shall see...
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Scott Morrison is not only a danger to himself:
Scott Morrison's welding moment goes viral over crucial error
https://au.news.yahoo.com/scott-morrison-welding-moment-goes-viral-over-crucial-error-080517941.html
But a danger to all of us:
Morrison and Dutton are puffing themselves up like mini-me McCarthyists – and it’s beyond reckless
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/17/morrison-and-dutton-are-imperilling-australias-national-security-to-hang-on-to-power
Shame on the Liberals for putting their own election interests ahead of Australia's interests by pushing lies, divisiveness, and fear.
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Morrison seems to be more a whirling dervish than a man at the moment.
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I would be interested in others opinions of the budget. Personally I am a bit concerned about the focus of it. In an inflationary environment the government wants to stimulate more spending. Surely the money could have been spent on things that would improve productivity such as child care funding, or decent levels of renewable energy investment and storage to help us all electrify everything and get us off oil, coal and gas as internationally exposed energy sources.
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Unsurprisingly, I find the inherent cynicism of the budget a bit of a let down. Throw money at short term problems (fuel costs) and quick cash grabs (is $420 going to make much of a difference in an inflationary environment to anyone's year?), that'll get people on board. The tax breaks to fossil fuel and extractive industries, consistent lack of increased investment in alternatives, unallocated disaster funding and just consistent 'we'll give them a big car park' just is so patronising of voter's desires, wants and aspirations of the society.
There's a lot in the budget, I can't claim to be an expert. But relevant to our field, middo, 60m in chaplain funding, not much equivalent in counselor, social work or psychology professionals in schools. Not much around increasing equitable funding to public schools. Unsurprising, but still.
The anti-China rhetoric is just appalling at the moment, and reflects so poorly on decisions made by the LNP (Port of Darwin, reducing DFAT's budget which prevents diplomacy in the Pacific from being firmly pro-Australia), public inflammatory comments re: CCP for showboating - just a litany of ''you've made your bed now lie in it'' and the pivot towards Australia's long history of anti-Chinese sentiment is ugly. A series of problems vastly exacerbated by LNP policy and publicity IMO. (the CCP is bad, but cmon, LNP, the fuck are you doing?)
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I would be interested in others opinions of the budget. Personally I am a bit concerned about the focus of it. In an inflationary environment the government wants to stimulate more spending. Surely the money could have been spent on things that would improve productivity such as child care funding, or decent levels of renewable energy investment and storage to help us all electrify everything and get us off oil, coal and gas as internationally exposed energy sources.
It's an incredibly irresponsible budget... in supposed good times with the lowest unemployment in 40 years, we have an $80 billion deficit this year and another $80 billion deficit next year. It's madness.
The billions given away in fuel excise cuts would be exactly what is needed to fix all the potholes in the roads from the rain, and the bridges and indeed the entire towns washed away by the floods.
But that's the least of the problems.... there's just not any long term planning. Apart from debt and deficits out to 2061.
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Well the election has been called, vote compass is back up (placing yours truly 1/2 between labour and greens) and there'll be some campaigning for sure.
Good luck to all the MMM'ers trying to get certain members elected. I think a hung parliament (with some specific issue focused power holders) or a slim labour majority sound like pretty good outcomes to me.
Gotta get more aggressive on climate change, labour regulations and anti-corruption. Oh an house prices.
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Does anyone else fill in their ballot paper in reverse order? If there's 8 candidates on my paper I'll often start at 8, then 7, 6, etc. Process of elimination :)
I'm just looking forward to the early voting opening so I can get it done and ignore the BS. I made my decision a long time ago.
Especially with the risk of contracting COVID-19 prior to the 21st and being required to isolate on the day.
I can always grill a sausage on the BBQ at home :D
I think a hung parliament (with some specific issue focused power holders) or a slim labour majority sound like pretty good outcomes to me.
My concern is the possibility of a situation where the UAP holds the balance of power in the Senate. That lot are unpredictable.
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Yes.
The corflutes for Zed are already stuck in the ground next to every lamppost on the main roads here. Doesn’t leave much room for the other candidates advertising.
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Yes.
The corflutes for Zed are already stuck in the ground next to every lamppost on the main roads here. Doesn’t leave much room for the other candidates advertising.
The 2nd ACT senate spot is going to be a very interesting contest. I'm not in the ACT, but I think Zed has been pretty arrogant towards Ken Behrens over the past few years with the expectation that ACT will always split 1:1 between the two majors. I think there is a very real prospect of him not getting the 33.3% + 1 this year and all of a sudden he's sh*tting bricks. Will be very interesting to see if Pocock can hoover up enough minor party preferences to dislodge him. I read that DP has been allowed to register his entity as a political party which means people will have the opportunity to vote for him 'above the line', as opposed to just being listed as an 'independent'. That gets him in the running.
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Does anyone else fill in their ballot paper in reverse order? If there's 8 candidates on my paper I'll often start at 8, then 7, 6, etc. Process of elimination :)
I'm just looking forward to the early voting opening so I can get it done and ignore the BS. I made my decision a long time ago.
Especially with the risk of contracting COVID-19 prior to the 21st and being required to isolate on the day.
I can always grill a sausage on the BBQ at home :D
I think a hung parliament (with some specific issue focused power holders) or a slim labour majority sound like pretty good outcomes to me.
My concern is the possibility of a situation where the UAP holds the balance of power in the Senate. That lot are unpredictable.
I pre-polled at the previous Federal Election and again at last year's State Election and I found the whole process much simpler and easier than going on the day. At the state poll, I pre-packed my own democracy sausage to have after I voted. Mrs G was somewhat embarrassed by that, but one of the 'how to vote hustlers' told me that a few other voters had also done the same.
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It's currently all over the papers that the Liberal captain's pick for the seat, Katherine Deves, is transphobic - she's said in the past that sex is immutable as well as posting a bunch of dodgy comments on the socials. Warringah voted 75% in favour of marriage equality, the fourth highest in NSW. So you could say we are supporters of the LGBTQI community... Odd choice for the seat! I guess we are also a very sporty electorate and the candidate's key gripe is trans women competing against cis women, so maybe she'll get support?
I hope the debates they have don't just bore on about this one topic.
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Ken Behrens, love that phrase :)
I actually do have some sympathy for the view that trans women (and intersex women) have a slight and yes possibly unfair advantage against cis gendered women on the sporting field.
The difference is that I believe the various respective sporting bodies have already developed procedures to deal with it. There's absolutely no need to denigrate and dehumanise these people, use them to prosecute a culture war and legislate against them. The issue has long ago already been solved, and everyone involved in every sport seems to be reasonably ok with how it is being sensitively managed.
It's pathetic, and Morrison deserves to take heat for it.
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Tony Abbott has come out in support of her, so there's a death knell for the seat, if it wasn't dead already! The stuff she's said goes way beyond sport, it's just full on phobic and she seriously needs to go. Imagine being a liberal volunteer handing out the how-to-vote flyers on the day.
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Good to see really high enrollment, as noted by the AEC.
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Tony Abbott has come out in support of her, so there's a death knell for the seat, if it wasn't dead already! The stuff she's said goes way beyond sport, it's just full on phobic and she seriously needs to go. Imagine being a liberal volunteer handing out the how-to-vote flyers on the day.
Knives are really out now - been reported that Zali's ex-husband's new wife is the one who signed the Liberal Party nomination form to get Deves in.
Also been reported that Deves signed up as a Zali supporter in 2019.
Fun and games.
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Tony Abbott has come out in support of her, so there's a death knell for the seat, if it wasn't dead already! The stuff she's said goes way beyond sport, it's just full on phobic and she seriously needs to go. Imagine being a liberal volunteer handing out the how-to-vote flyers on the day.
Knives are really out now - been reported that Zali's ex-husband's new wife is the one who signed the Liberal Party nomination form to get Deves in.
Also been reported that Deves signed up as a Zali supporter in 2019.
Fun and games.
Apparently on all other matters, Deves is moderate or progressive. It's just that she has this unholy obsession with trans people that has consumed her. The profile in the SMH seemed to imply that she went to law school only recently so that she could work on it. That's pretty full on. I wonder what happened to make her so. Anyway.. the profile also pointed out that the liberals long ago decided that Warringah was a lost cause, so she is just being used to dogwhistle to the religious western suburbs.
Apparently the polling has Allegra Spender ahead, Sophie Scamps very close in Mackellar and the independent in WA is also doing well. Imagine if there were 6 independents (if the existing 3 get back in).
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What a surprise that One Nation are going down the American path of questioning the election results/process...before it's even been held.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-29/aec-warns-pauline-hanson-one-nation-over-voter-fraud-video/101026812
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The rate rise today is going to feed the feelings that the current government isn't controlling cost of living pressures for those that struggle to manage their income/expenses ratios.
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Lots of signs around here saying "I'm voting for a better climate". No matter who wins I'm hoping this sends a strong message.
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I love that ~!
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https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/howard-s-stark-warning-to-liberals-any-teal-seat-loss-spells-end-of-government-20220504-p5aidb.html
Maybe the Liberal Party should look into why people in those electorates are prepared to give the teals a go.
Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk
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https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/howard-s-stark-warning-to-liberals-any-teal-seat-loss-spells-end-of-government-20220504-p5aidb.html
Maybe the Liberal Party should look into why people in those electorates are prepared to give the teals a go.
Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk
Indeed. I suspect whoever loses this election will face a crisis of identity over the coming three years.
If Labor loses, then they'll have twice lost 'unloseable' elections. They'll need to completely reinvent their brand. There are a bunch of people who are centrist but anti-union and they'd probably need to lessen the union links in order to ever appeal to that group.
If the Coalition lose, especially if the Libs lose a bunch of seats to the teals, then the pitch from opposition will HAVE to automatically disenfranchise some of their existing supporters. If it's a rout this time round, then the scale of that disenfranchisement will be huge. The proliferation of RWNJ parties has worked to their advantage in the past couple of elections, but if the Libs have to reposition their values back towards the teal value set, then the RWNJs will carve up their right hand edge.
I'm just as interested as to what happens to the Nats if it's a rout, especially if Nicholls falls to Priestly. There's a lot of farmers who face wipeout from climate inaction who see the Nats under Joyce supporting the interests of mining ahead of farming. Barnaby is particularly on the nose in the southern rural areas. If Zali was the canary in the coalmine at the last election for the teals this time round, then Priestly could easily be that for the ochres.
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Not sure how much further federal labour could get from unions....
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Not sure how much further federal labour could get from unions....
Ummmm…
I reckon having the leaders, including the potential PM, marching alongside CFMEU heavyweights thru Brisbane on Monday, singing “Solidarity Forever”, whilst important to their union mates, is probably a net vote loser. It’s not a good look to those who continue to say the Labor Party are beholden to the unions.
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Voted yesterday, was pretty painless which is always nice.
Can we just reflect on some of the more insane bozos running for senate?
,
Yes there's UAP and One Nation (vomit), Derryn Hinch 'Justice' Party, Australian Federation Party (who want to implement Gonski funding reforms then give parents the money which is like 2 steps forward and 18 back???), Fusion (which is like the crypto/NFT technolibertarian party) and of course 'informed medical opinions' which is clearly anti-vax.
Hat's off, however, to Great Australia Party for this absolute mess of a paragraph (their policy on Education):
"To ensure this we will replace the UNESCO “PROGRESSIVE” system with a full “SYLLABUS” system. Emphasis is on responsibility, competition and discipline. We will address the investigation of particular roles in education e.g. School Inspectors, ensure respect of the various religious Values, Patriotism and Morality. Aptitude tests will be conducted to ensure students are directed towards an education in line with their capabilities and interests."
Also there's like 5 parties (Australia Values, Reason, Sustainable Australia, etc) that all want 'evidence based policy' and 'reasonable policy' that seems to be their big idea. Evidence rarely is conclusive and doesn't always point to one thing - I like Reason's proposals, but they are progressive. Why not own it?
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Voted yesterday, was pretty painless which is always nice.
Can we just reflect on some of the more insane bozos running for senate?
,
Yes there's UAP and One Nation (vomit), Derryn Hinch 'Justice' Party, Australian Federation Party (who want to implement Gonski funding reforms then give parents the money which is like 2 steps forward and 18 back???), Fusion (which is like the crypto/NFT technolibertarian party) and of course 'informed medical opinions' which is clearly anti-vax.
Hat's off, however, to Great Australia Party for this absolute mess of a paragraph (their policy on Education):
"To ensure this we will replace the UNESCO “PROGRESSIVE” system with a full “SYLLABUS” system. Emphasis is on responsibility, competition and discipline. We will address the investigation of particular roles in education e.g. School Inspectors, ensure respect of the various religious Values, Patriotism and Morality. Aptitude tests will be conducted to ensure students are directed towards an education in line with their capabilities and interests."
Also there's like 5 parties (Australia Values, Reason, Sustainable Australia, etc) that all want 'evidence based policy' and 'reasonable policy' that seems to be their big idea. Evidence rarely is conclusive and doesn't always point to one thing - I like Reason's proposals, but they are progressive. Why not own it?
But Matt - you've failed to address the biggest issue. Democracy sausage?
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Ooof the Great Australia Party sound awful & will have kids singing the anthem every day.
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Voted yesterday, was pretty painless which is always nice.
Can we just reflect on some of the more insane bozos running for senate?
,
Yes there's UAP and One Nation (vomit), Derryn Hinch 'Justice' Party, Australian Federation Party (who want to implement Gonski funding reforms then give parents the money which is like 2 steps forward and 18 back???), Fusion (which is like the crypto/NFT technolibertarian party) and of course 'informed medical opinions' which is clearly anti-vax.
Hat's off, however, to Great Australia Party for this absolute mess of a paragraph (their policy on Education):
"To ensure this we will replace the UNESCO “PROGRESSIVE” system with a full “SYLLABUS” system. Emphasis is on responsibility, competition and discipline. We will address the investigation of particular roles in education e.g. School Inspectors, ensure respect of the various religious Values, Patriotism and Morality. Aptitude tests will be conducted to ensure students are directed towards an education in line with their capabilities and interests."
Also there's like 5 parties (Australia Values, Reason, Sustainable Australia, etc) that all want 'evidence based policy' and 'reasonable policy' that seems to be their big idea. Evidence rarely is conclusive and doesn't always point to one thing - I like Reason's proposals, but they are progressive. Why not own it?
But Matt - you've failed to address the biggest issue. Democracy sausage?
The sausage is why we are waiting until polling day. Bring our dog and give her one too...
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But Matt - you've failed to address the biggest issue. Democracy sausage?
No for early voters like me :(
But I am in the People's Republic of Melbourne so perhaps other locations will have better luck.
I always go to a local PS for voting on the weekend, someone's running a bake sale for SURE.
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I might pre-poll too. I don't want to feel rushed because I'll mess up and spoil my senate ballot. I'll make my own sausage.
I noticed that the liberals haven't managed to staff the Warringah pre-poll location I passed on Monday. They bussed them in when Abbott was fighting to save the seat. It's nice being a lost cause! I saw that the UAP had staff again - last year the guy we spoke to was paid to be there. $80 million gets you a lot of "supporters".
I passed a pre-poll place in Wentworth today and there were lots of Allegra Spender volunteers outside. All smiling in the rain. My friend in the electorate is voting Sharma but his wife was tight lipped so fingers crossed.
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UAP helpers have been promised a few things for their assistance at this election. I won't reveal what (it's nearly but not quite verified gossip from connections to Craig Kelly), but it almost makes me want to turn out in a yellow shirt. Almost haha.
Our purple hero has been getting a little bit of love in Hughes. We're totally up against it, but Linda got her face on Channel 9 news today. Have a watch in the link below. I wasn't in this one, but I did try and sneak onto the camera when Sky News were filming Jenny Ware.
https://fb.watch/c-ggoBAn4t/
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If it’s similar to the mortgage interest rate promise, I’m not sure that it’s deliverable!
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I have voted so I am no longer seriously looking at election news. I really wanted to ask yellow people why on earth they were voting for/campaigning for UAP. But I don't want to offend them - I really want to know. To me it seems a total no brainer that it is a scam of a party.
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I have voted so I am no longer seriously looking at election news. I really wanted to ask yellow people why on earth they were voting for/campaigning for UAP. But I don't want to offend them - I really want to know. To me it seems a total no brainer that it is a scam of a party.
I suspect it's largely a protest vote. A few people out there who are all 'f all the major parties'. They're likely voting against the major parties rather than for the UAP.
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Use super to pay for a house, idk, availability of money isn't the issue: the cost and debt are the problems. It seems pretty silly to me.
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I have voted so I am no longer seriously looking at election news. I really wanted to ask yellow people why on earth they were voting for/campaigning for UAP. But I don't want to offend them - I really want to know. To me it seems a total no brainer that it is a scam of a party.
I won't try and cast aspersions but there is a strong attraction to the UAP from the "alternative" woo woo crystals and naturopathy type ones.
There's A LOT of them out there... lots of yellow shirts and Kelly getting quite a few voters in my area because of it unfortunately.
He's also apparently quite big on tik tok... people seem to like his "F U" attitude.
It's all so horribly wrong.
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I start volunteering at the pre-polling today. I voted yesterday and all the volunteers were chatting and no-one engaged me except the Greens because I happened to look behind me in the queue at one point. They were practically blocking the door and I had to walk behind all of them to get to it. Maybe I looked like a bag lady but even bag ladies vote. Bloody useless, terrible look for all parties. I hope to be better! It's also a horrible location for a pre-poll with people approaching from many directions next to a busy bus stop.
I overhead someone in the dog park today saying "and what's that Ziggy ever done?" She was from outside "Ziggy's" electorate and chatting to a group so I didn't pipe up even though I should have.
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I voted this morning and easily avoided the leafleteers who were holding up the voters. Then I decided to get how to vote cards for my mother afterwards.
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Interesting break up of electorates by the ABC
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-20/federal-election-map-lying/101076016
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Interesting break up of electorates by the ABC
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-20/federal-election-map-lying/101076016
Thank you for that. I enjoyed that representation a lot.
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What's the food on offer at your polling booth like?
I pre polled so missed out on a democracy sausage.
Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk
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There was no sausages or cakes at the polling station where I volunteered. Heard about a cake sale at another school but overall a poor show!
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How is the social distancing going at your polling booths? When I prepolled the how to vote people definitely weren’t, especially from each other. I’m sure they were all there together for more than 15 minutes!
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How is the social distancing going at your polling booths? When I prepolled the how to vote people definitely weren’t, especially from each other. I’m sure they were all there together for more than 15 minutes!
No we weren't social distancing at all, either the volunteers or the voters. But I don't see much social distancing anywhere any more.
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It felt like it was going Zali's way at the polling booth today. The odds are 1.12/1 this morning which is pretty damn short but you never know. The UAP do have some voters, the volunteers this time were informed and persuasive. I was surprised how many people sought out Labor how-to-vote cards. And a lot of people wanted the Greens ones too. I was sickeningly nice to all voters even the Liberal ones, and I'd say 99% were polite back. Special shout out to the guy who *looked* like he was a stale pale male, but then took the liberal how to vote card and screwed it up and gave it back. Classic!
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Well that's done, thank heavens. I really dislike all the electioneering in the lead-up. Tonight I will sit back and keep an eye on the results as they come in. I don't have any clear idea of what the likely outcome is. I'm hoping both the major parties get a bit of a kick up the proverbial.
There was a great looking food stall put up by our local primary school with hordes of folks handing out leaflets. I absolutely loath running the gauntlet with people shoving how to vote trees cards in my face. Luckily I spotted the mosh pit as I was looking for a park, so I walked down the back lane and up the side steps completely avoiding it.
Not much mask wearing or social distancing happening, although a few people made space around me when they saw I was wearing a mask.
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Special shout out to the guy who *looked* like he was a stale pale male, but then took the liberal how to vote card and screwed it up and gave it back. Classic!
I'm not a fan of this, regardless of how anyone votes. Most people there are there because they believe they are making a difference to democracy. I will treat everyone volunteering their time in support of democracy with respect and dignity, even if their political beliefs are a long way from mine. This is just a dick move.
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My gf called the One Nation pamphleteer 'racist' which I think was out of line. But what can you do? Sometimes the better half just has to mouth off.
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Hardly a confidence vote for the Coalition... although with 31% primary nationwide it's hardly a resounding endorsement of Labor either.
Interesting that they're projecting Higgins may go to Labor. I lived there briefly a number of years ago and it was a very strongly Liberal electorate.
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I'm hoping for a Labour led hung Parliament that prioritises decisive climate action, not being complete shitheads, ICAC with teeth and housing affordability. Feels like a pretty decent place.
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Commitment to the Uluru statement as the first thing albanese says. Astounding!
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Special shout out to the guy who *looked* like he was a stale pale male, but then took the liberal how to vote card and screwed it up and gave it back. Classic!
I'm not a fan of this, regardless of how anyone votes. Most people there are there because they believe they are making a difference to democracy. I will treat everyone volunteering their time in support of democracy with respect and dignity, even if their political beliefs are a long way from mine. This is just a dick move.
Ah unfortunately not everyone is as respectful. I got abused but it was by a 90 year old lady so it wasn't too bad. The Greens got the worst (she was a little old lady who got shouted at by a big man).
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We did it!! It did feel like that today but you never know. Two people *just at my booth* became citizens in the last year to vote for Zali / climate action.
And the other teals - it's so many more than expected, what a night.
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Commitment to the Uluru statement as the first thing albanese says. Astounding!
YES! Good on him. That is so good.
Will be interesting to see how the senate works out - I hope ALP and the Greens work well together and there's good stuff to come.
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A big relief to wake and find that the Coalition is out. I was too worried to wait up and find out last night. It looks like a Labor led hung government, though they may pick up enough to govern in their own right,
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Not a fan of hung parliaments, but in the current political climate its probably the best we can do. From where I am sitting I think a huge climate message has been sent to the big 2, so hopefully this will garner some climate action. At last.
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We voted around 10:00 am so the sausages would be ready, and we wouldn't miss out. Last time we got the last couple. Dog got one too (see pic...)
I am really happy with the election result. I thing a hung parliament would mean that the new Government has to negotiate, which they will have to do anyway with the senate. I'm very happy that some of the more extreme conservative candidates seem to have lost their seats or their chances at them.
I have concerns about where the Liberal party will go now, as while they haven't listened to their moderates for a long time, now they no longer have any moderates. Dutton as leader would concern me.
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I have concerns about where the Liberal party will go now, as while they haven't listened to their moderates for a long time, now they no longer have any moderates. Dutton as leader would concern me.
Indeed, they look to be in serious trouble.
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I have concerns about where the Liberal party will go now, as while they haven't listened to their moderates for a long time, now they no longer have any moderates. Dutton as leader would concern me.
Indeed, they look to be in serious trouble.
They need to change everything to appeal but I have a horrible feeling they will just wait til everyone is sick of Labour and blaming them for high interest rates, do some horrible attack ads, and get back in on promises of good economic management.
But for now I am very hopeful that we'll get some stuff moving on climate!
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Looking on some Sky opinion pieces, there are some who think they need to be moving more to the right to get back into government. I think they think the public is experimenting with the idea of climate change and all this progressive feel good stuff. The fact that the right wing "freedom" parties did not poll well does not seem to have sunk in. I am hoping that type of thinking is wrong.
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A day or so before the election, the liberals said they'd reduce the public service by 30%. The ACT probably has an independent senator and the vote in the Canberra electorate has the greens second rather than the liberals. Funny how that happens.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-23/election-2022-morrison-women-vote/101089978
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Looking on some Sky opinion pieces, there are some who think they need to be moving more to the right to get back into government. I think they think the public is experimenting with the idea of climate change and all this progressive feel good stuff. The fact that the right wing "freedom" parties did not poll well does not seem to have sunk in. I am hoping that type of thinking is wrong.
I think they will end up moving rightward and targetting outer suburbs and some regional areas. Some previously ultra safe Labor seats have seen a significant drop in their 2PP with UAP/ON getting mid-high single digit percentages. Scullin and Calwell are examples of this.
Look at the breaching of the 'red wall' by the Conservatives in the UK. Or how rust belt states like Ohio have flipped from Democratic to Republican in the last decade.
The prospect of taking a bite out of Labor's base is likely too appealing to them.
Especially with Dutton as opposition leader.
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I just read Turnbull's autobiography and it's clear the the right wing of the Liberals assume everyone thinks like them. Eg they honestly thought they'd win the same sex marriage plebiscite, that's why they wanted it.
This article is not really just about the female voter being ignored, it's about the lack of local candidates, grassroots consultation, kitchen table discussions, finding out what people care about, not what you think they should care about. Whoever can do that, wins the seat. Look at the deputy mayor who has won Fowler.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-23/election-2022-morrison-women-vote/101089978
There was also interesting analysis on ABC about the One Nation vote. It's higher nationally because they put forward more candidates. But in their previously strong areas, they've had a massive swing away. We know people are disaffected & hate the major parties but I wonder if it doesn't necessarily mean they'll vote on the right. They'll vote for whoever tells them they aren't like the usual pollies. Could be ON, UAP but could just as easily be a centrist independent.
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Fascinating result.
A couple of things from my perspective:-
1. Women have become a force.
2. Climate change has become a big issue.
3. I think the Australian people showed that religion and politics should never mix.
I think 1 & 3 are fantastic but 2 concerns me. I tried to read the IPCC report recently and it was a monolithic mess. The pandemic to me showed how good science is at informing us to make good decisions. The science was fantastic and available for all of us to read and review. The same level of transparency needs to be available for climate change so that we can have educated fact based decision making.
Lastly I'm so glad Labor is in power. I'm not political but Morrison and the Libs were on the nose.
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Not sure how much further federal labour could get from unions....
Just wanted to circle back on this. Annabel Crabb has written an excellent article today. The final quarter of the article ties in to some of this re the factional decisions driven by unions in how senior positions are divvied up within a Labor Government. Like Annabel, I’d love to see ministerial positions decided on capability.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-26/australian-election-voters-rage-despair-major-parties-on-notice/101095010
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Not sure how much further federal labour could get from unions....
Just wanted to circle back on this. Annabel Crabb has written an excellent article today. The final quarter of the article ties in to some of this re the factional decisions driven by unions in how senior positions are divvied up within a Labor Government. Like Annabel, I’d love to see ministerial positions decided on capability.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-26/australian-election-voters-rage-despair-major-parties-on-notice/101095010
It does sound a lot like young adult fiction with the competing factions. Crabb says that the factions were livid that Rudd chose his own cabinet but then again he was also very difficult to work with. What will happen to Albanese if ignores the factions? He's supposed to be a master negotiator and he was pretty clear in his victory speech that he was going to have order in this government. I guess we can only wait and see. Presumably they have learnt *some* lessons after the Rudd - Gillard - Rudd debacle.
I wish they'd hurry up and finish counting, I can't wait another week to know if it's minority or majority. If it's a minority and they have to negotiate a lot with the teals and Greens the government is going to feel more female which would help with that aspect if Albanese doesn't manage the 50/50 gender split.
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Not sure how much further federal labour could get from unions....
Just wanted to circle back on this. Annabel Crabb has written an excellent article today. The final quarter of the article ties in to some of this re the factional decisions driven by unions in how senior positions are divvied up within a Labor Government. Like Annabel, I’d love to see ministerial positions decided on capability.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-26/australian-election-voters-rage-despair-major-parties-on-notice/101095010
Having seen how that worked for the last government under Scott Morrison, and how the "capable" ministers such as Stewart Roberts and Richard Colbeck (I could go on) performed, maybe there isn't a right or wrong way to do this?
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Not sure how much further federal labour could get from unions....
Just wanted to circle back on this. Annabel Crabb has written an excellent article today. The final quarter of the article ties in to some of this re the factional decisions driven by unions in how senior positions are divvied up within a Labor Government. Like Annabel, I’d love to see ministerial positions decided on capability.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-26/australian-election-voters-rage-despair-major-parties-on-notice/101095010
Having seen how that worked for the last government under Scott Morrison, and how the "capable" ministers such as Stewart Roberts and Richard Colbeck (I could go on) performed, maybe there isn't a right or wrong way to do this?
I disagree with the implied that they were Ministers on merit and not some outworking of the back room factional trade-off within the Liberal Party. This is the “Blue” version of the same problem that the Labor Party also have…
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At the risk of being labelled a necroposter, I came across this report the other day. It's an interesting read if you're into the political landscape.
https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2022-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf
I was particularly interested in the section on socio-demographics (Section 4). I'd read before that Females were significantly less likely to vote for the Coalition than Males (30% compared to 38%). I'd also heard about the Millenial/Gen Z problem where voters now no longer seem to be drifting from Centre-Left to Centre-Right as they hit their 30s. That made sense to me.
But one thing that really stood out, and probably highlights the difficulties that the Coalition (the Liberal Party in particular) now face, was the distribution by income. The Coalition's share of vote now DECLINES as income increases. Only 30% of those earning more than $140k a year voted Coalition. In fact, the over $140k demographic is the one where Labor has the biggest margin over the Coalition (+5%). In addition to that, it's also the demographic that is most likely to vote Green. By dint of where they were elected, clearly also Teal as well (although the Teals are not split out separately from "Other" in the analysis).
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It looks like Millennials don't put 'the economy' ahead of other issues.
The whole thing about drifting right has never sat well with me. Anecdotally, I see myself and my friends doubling down on our positions, be it left or right. It might be a feature of how we get our info these days and therefore it would be more pronounced in younger generations who have only ever had their info curated by algorithms.
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It looks like Millennials don't put 'the economy' ahead of other issues.
The whole thing about drifting right has never sat well with me. Anecdotally, I see myself and my friends doubling down on our positions, be it left or right. It might be a feature of how we get our info these days and therefore it would be more pronounced in younger generations who have only ever had their info curated by algorithms.
I have heard an explanation that "moving to the right" happens as people accumulate wealth through owning their own home. They have more to lose, so are more concerned about the running of the economy. However, many in their 40's and 50's are now seeing that either they will never own a home, or their children will really struggle to own a home. They are more interested then in other aspects of politics, such as environment or social redistribution of wealth.
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It looks like Millennials don't put 'the economy' ahead of other issues.
The whole thing about drifting right has never sat well with me. Anecdotally, I see myself and my friends doubling down on our positions, be it left or right. It might be a feature of how we get our info these days and therefore it would be more pronounced in younger generations who have only ever had their info curated by algorithms.
I have heard an explanation that "moving to the right" happens as people accumulate wealth through owning their own home. They have more to lose, so are more concerned about the running of the economy. However, many in their 40's and 50's are now seeing that either they will never own a home, or their children will really struggle to own a home. They are more interested then in other aspects of politics, such as environment or social redistribution of wealth.
I get this, but also - because I'm wealthy, the state of the economy doesn't affect my quality of life. Mustachians would be outliers here.
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I'm not very good at politics, because I don't like to spend my time fretting about it. However, I've never thought demographics predicted the outcome, so this is a new slant for me. I always looked at it from a party politics stance. Whats obvious to me is that society has moved on ( whatever the age/ SES etc and the Coalition has not.