Author Topic: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!  (Read 43659 times)

Dropbear

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #100 on: May 14, 2019, 07:10:11 AM »
Although removing franking credits is a bad policy for lower income retirees, I'll gladly wear this one.  At least Labor have a coherent policy platform rather than a void.

These minor money matters are meaningless in the face of climate change and a collapse of biodiversity.  There's nothing else that matters as much this election.

Besides, future government incomes are likely to be far higher in an economy based on thriving renawables, rather than the Liberals' austerity agenda in the name of tax cuts for rich.

Thankfully, in Wentworth, I have an outstanding independent candidate to vote for.  I only wish every citizen in the country had such an option to choose among a diverse range of local candidates.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #101 on: May 17, 2019, 09:06:54 PM »
I counted my Facebook friends' election statuses and of the 20 who posted, 16 were for Labor and 4 were for Greens; nil for Liberal. I feel like I am the only person under 35 in all of Australia who votes Libs (for all I know, that is probably accurate; recall the supposed Winston Churchill quote.)

I'm trying to make myself feel better about the Labor win, and I've nearly succeeded:

- My partner just finished school and doesn't earn very much. She will be better off under Labor's tax plan. Her parents are battlers and will be better off.

- We are done purchasing IPs for the time being. Our next property will be a PPOR. Under Labor, house prices are likely to be 1-2% lower due to watering down NG/CGT - per Grattan Institute. So we might be $15,000 or $30,000 better off as PPOR buyers given there will be less investor demand.

- When it comes time for us to buy our next and last IP, it might be cheaper also, in the wake of lending restrictions and the fallout of the BRC.

(Yes, it's all about my interests. I'm selfish.)

Fresh Bread

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #102 on: May 17, 2019, 09:11:56 PM »
Hey Bloopy! I'm volunteering at a booth and there are definitely a bunch of libs voters under 40 years to keep you company. Lots of older ones too naturally.

I just voted and ate my sausage. Hope I filled it in right, what pressure.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #103 on: May 17, 2019, 09:13:47 PM »
Thanks, Fresh Bread. Enjoy your well-earned snag.

deborah

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #104 on: May 17, 2019, 09:41:57 PM »
I have several cousins under 40 who may be liberal voters. Certainly one of them is, as he hopes one day to be a liberal prime minister. I think he has Buckleyís.

Fresh Bread

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #105 on: May 17, 2019, 09:48:31 PM »
I have several cousins under 40 who may be liberal voters. Certainly one of them is, as he hopes one day to be a liberal prime minister. I think he has Buckleyís.

Today I met a 12 year old climate protester who was at the booth with a sign and flyers asking people to vote for her future. She wants to be a politician and I think she might make it!

alsoknownasDean

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #106 on: May 17, 2019, 10:53:52 PM »
My voting booth had run out of sausages. I'm considering riding to the nearest Bunnings for a snag in bread.

Although there were no queues so it's probably a fair trade off.

bigchrisb

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #107 on: May 17, 2019, 11:54:17 PM »
I spent a few days being an election official at pre polling for an overseas voting centre.  My observation based on what voters chose to say or the how to vote cards carried was of a pretty clear generational split. A lot of passion and engaged people. No democracy sausages due to lack of people to run a bbq, but we did give out some home made democracy biscuits (that looked rather like Anzac biscuits!)

Kyle Schuant

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #108 on: May 18, 2019, 12:14:14 AM »
(Yes, it's all about my interests. I'm selfish.)
Just be smart enough to be selfish with a long-term view, rather than short-term. Remember what Bismarck said: if we do not throw the starving a few crumbs from our table, they may snatch the whole loaf.

Bismarck was a smart conservative. His successors have been less smart. It is in the nature of elites to destroy themselves.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #109 on: May 18, 2019, 12:29:43 AM »
I wouldn't know a thing about elites. I'm just a battler. But what I see from my worldview as a battler is that there's plenty of opportunity in this country still.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #110 on: May 18, 2019, 12:34:43 AM »
A battler on over $100k, eh?

Neither of us are "battlers". That whole concept is such a wank.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #111 on: May 18, 2019, 12:51:52 AM »
I reckon anyone who's an employee or self-employed and earning under about $300k is a battler.

deborah

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #112 on: May 18, 2019, 12:57:45 AM »
A battler is someone earning under $60,000 not 5 times as much.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #113 on: May 18, 2019, 02:57:22 AM »
Very early results for Warringah have Tony in trouble.

Seems that my seat (Cooper) has a fairly significant swing to the ALP, but that might be due to the Greens issues in Victoria of late.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2019, 03:01:04 AM by alsoknownasDean »

deborah

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #114 on: May 18, 2019, 03:08:45 AM »
Very early results for Warringah have Tony in trouble.

Less than 4% is counted! There's a long way to go yet.

deborah

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #115 on: May 18, 2019, 03:35:19 AM »
Very early results for Warringah have Tony in trouble.

Less than 4% is counted! There's a long way to go yet.
11% counted and the ABC is giving it to her!

I don't think we'll see a change of government. But it's less than an hour into counting, so I could easily be wrong. And there are all the prepoll votes.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2019, 03:38:08 AM by deborah »

alsoknownasDean

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #116 on: May 18, 2019, 03:52:38 AM »
Very early results for Warringah have Tony in trouble.

Less than 4% is counted! There's a long way to go yet.
11% counted and the ABC is giving it to her!

I don't think we'll see a change of government. But it's less than an hour into counting, so I could easily be wrong. And there are all the prepoll votes.

I think you're probably right. It seems that there's a swing to the LNP in Queensland that would hurt the ALP's chances. They're not going to make up enough of that elsewhere. Especially considering that a number of the independents likely to get seats are likely to support a Coalition government.

I suspect we'll see a minority government, whoever ends up as PM.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2019, 03:57:11 AM by alsoknownasDean »

deborah

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #117 on: May 18, 2019, 04:11:21 AM »
No, I see a liberal government if the media is right. The ABC reckons the liberals have gained two seats in each of Queensland and Tasmania, while the ALP have gained one in Victoria. Each of them have gained a seat from the other in NSW, and it looks a bit as though the liberals have lost a seat (2 if you count Wentworth) to an independent in NSW. No one was expecting ALP gains in the states that haven't really started counting.

This is all based on what - 20% of the vote? If the diehards all pre polled (because they'd all made up their minds early), this may change considerably. And you often need to know exactly which polling booths have been counted. My uncle (who's always a scrutineer) would always look at the booths to see whether the early margins were reasonable. The media don't seem to be thinking about the booths this time, so I'm pretty suspicious about their figures.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #118 on: May 18, 2019, 04:16:39 AM »
No, I see a liberal government if the media is right. The ABC reckons the liberals have gained two seats in each of Queensland and Tasmania, while the ALP have gained one in Victoria. Each of them have gained a seat from the other in NSW, and it looks a bit as though the liberals have lost a seat (2 if you count Wentworth) to an independent in NSW. No one was expecting ALP gains in the states that haven't really started counting.

The AEC has called Dunkley, Corangamite and Chisholm for the ALP (all gained from the Libs). But yeah that won't offset losses in Tassie or QLD. My call is a Coalition minority government.

Considering where the Coalition were six months ago, it's a phenomenal turnaround for them. Phenomenal effort by Morrison to right the LNP ship, considering the factional infighting.

So....who's going to succeed Shorten as ALP leader?
« Last Edit: May 18, 2019, 04:58:31 AM by alsoknownasDean »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #119 on: May 18, 2019, 05:01:19 AM »
Surely Albo will succeed Shorten. He is pugnacious and highly liked.

I am surprised and pleasantly shocked at the outcome to date. I actually thought Shorten ran a disciplined and strong campaign. I assume Labor's underperformance is due to 2 things:
1. Racists/climate change deniers in QLD
2. Bill maybe taking on too many of the "top end of town" and feeling a pinch there.

I hope the politics status quo continues in this country, and I hope that in future both parties will keep spending low and will resist the urge to either tax the rich (Labor) or punish the poor (Liberal).

alsoknownasDean

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #120 on: May 18, 2019, 05:11:44 AM »
Surely Albo will succeed Shorten. He is pugnacious and highly liked.

I am surprised and pleasantly shocked at the outcome to date. I actually thought Shorten ran a disciplined and strong campaign. I assume Labor's underperformance is due to 2 things:
1. Racists/climate change deniers in QLD
2. Bill maybe taking on too many of the "top end of town" and feeling a pinch there.

I hope the politics status quo continues in this country, and I hope that in future both parties will keep spending low and will resist the urge to either tax the rich (Labor) or punish the poor (Liberal).

I suspect the franking credits policy hurt Labor's prospects among older voters. Palmer preferences have definitely helped the Coalition. And yeah there's the 'deep north' effect in QLD.

deborah

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #121 on: May 18, 2019, 05:32:51 AM »
I'm saddened by the results. I didn't necessarily like the Labor policies - some of them were quite poor - but I see the Liberal ones as a bit worse (on the whole), and I would really like our leaders to LEAD and have a VISION. I don't want us to spend yet another 4 years wandering around in the swamp, like has been happening for the last 10 years.

Thank goodness Tony Abbott has gone. Maybe without him politics will become more collegiate and less confrontational. Pity Barnaby is still there.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2019, 05:50:36 AM by deborah »

alsoknownasDean

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #122 on: May 18, 2019, 05:51:44 AM »
Pity Barnaby is still there.

Not to mention Dutton, or Christensen, or a few others.

deborah

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #123 on: May 18, 2019, 05:53:17 AM »
Surely Albo will succeed Shorten. He is pugnacious and highly liked.

I am surprised and pleasantly shocked at the outcome to date. I actually thought Shorten ran a disciplined and strong campaign. I assume Labor's underperformance is due to 2 things:
1. Racists/climate change deniers in QLD
2. Bill maybe taking on too many of the "top end of town" and feeling a pinch there.

I hope the politics status quo continues in this country, and I hope that in future both parties will keep spending low and will resist the urge to either tax the rich (Labor) or punish the poor (Liberal).
I'd say it was Adani in Queensland, but you're right about the top end of town.

deborah

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #124 on: May 18, 2019, 06:01:11 AM »
Pity Barnaby is still there.

Not to mention Dutton, or Christensen, or a few others.
I don't like them, but without their ring leader, they may become more reasonable and enable parliament to achieve something. I didn't like Hawke either, but he achieved a lot.

MrThatsDifferent

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #125 on: May 18, 2019, 06:20:25 AM »
Labor should have left franking credits alone. Hope thatís the end of Shorten, miserable man.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #126 on: May 18, 2019, 06:31:26 AM »
Should be interesting to see what pre polls do.

The cross-bench should hopefully keep the climate deniers at bay.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2019, 06:33:46 AM by alsoknownasDean »

deborah

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #127 on: May 18, 2019, 06:36:23 AM »
Franking credits was a silly thing for Labor to make such a fuss about, when the $1.6million limit to super had been legislated, as this effectively limited the problem. It was also a silly thing for everyone to get het up about when it made a small difference to most people. I suspect that I was one of the most affected, and yet I could see several ways to avoid the problem. I consider that Howard was wrong to change things so that people were getting the money without any income in the first place.

marty998

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #128 on: May 18, 2019, 07:34:30 AM »
Surely Albo will succeed Shorten. He is pugnacious and highly liked.

I am surprised and pleasantly shocked at the outcome to date. I actually thought Shorten ran a disciplined and strong campaign. I assume Labor's underperformance is due to 2 things:
1. Racists/climate change deniers in QLD
2. Bill maybe taking on too many of the "top end of town" and feeling a pinch there.

I hope the politics status quo continues in this country, and I hope that in future both parties will keep spending low and will resist the urge to either tax the rich (Labor) or punish the poor (Liberal).

I suspect the franking credits policy hurt Labor's prospects among older voters. Palmer preferences have definitely helped the Coalition. And yeah there's the 'deep north' effect in QLD.

My gut feel is that Labor ran a campaign that reinforced their rusted on supporters. They didn't offer anything to change the minds of swinging voters who voted Liberal last time around.

My local Labor candidate got creamed as expected. I'll have to suffer through three more years having a lump of coal representing me.

I have a few tax cuts to look forward to, but I can't help but feel a little dejected.

itchyfeet

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #129 on: May 18, 2019, 08:25:09 AM »
Following from afar.

I canít say that I have followed the lead into the election at all, and didnít vote. But Iíll read the aftermarth.

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #130 on: May 18, 2019, 12:54:45 PM »
Have to say I'm really pleased with this outcome.  Partly because I don't like Shorten and hits very pro union stance, but also because at Abbot got the boot.  At the end of the day, a (potentially) 3 year term is too short to change much, and in a two party system, policy lies somewhere between the two major parties.  The things I'm pleased about as outcomes from today are:

- There has been a rejection of Abbott in particular. I hope that the conservative dinosaurs in the coalition understand that they need to change or die out on social issues such as climate change and gender issues. I believe our county will be better off if the coalition moves in that direction.
- That a hard unionist was soundly rejected in the polls. I hope that the ALP understands this, softens its union links and moves further to the centre on industrial relations. I believe the country will be better off for this.
- That a campaign based on stoking class warfare failed. Trying to create class envy for political gain to me is abhorrent, and not what Australia should stand for.
- Ditto for telling one line soundbites that don't mesh with statistics - "everything is rising except your wages" clashes rather hard with the ABS's wage and inflation data. All the parties are guilty of this kind of junk - if it were me, gaol time would be introduced for campaign fraud. All I can hope is that a rejection of this one in particular gets parties more focused on actual policy.
- Hopefully after seeing how poor polls are at predicting outcomes (Trump, Brexit, this election), governments (political parties) will ignore polls until the next election, and just get on with governing. I keep hoping for fixed 4 year terms, but maybe that's just too optimistic..

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #131 on: May 18, 2019, 03:14:29 PM »
Australian public loses.

Not because we will continue with the same government, or because the environment will continue to be degraded under this government.

This election result will reinforce to every opposition party in the future that they should be a "small target". Don't outline your policies. Don't tell the truth. Keep it to three word slogans. Find a "budget black hole" when you get in, and do what you want.

Too often the Australian public whinge that our pollies lie to us. But when we are told the truth, as a nation we reject it. Our political future is for more of the same.

marty998

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #132 on: May 18, 2019, 03:41:32 PM »
- Hopefully after seeing how poor polls are at predicting outcomes (Trump, Brexit, this election), governments (political parties) will ignore polls until the next election, and just get on with governing. I keep hoping for fixed 4 year terms, but maybe that's just too optimistic..

This was really interesting how Newspoll was basically out by 10% on the Liberal vote (37 vs an actual of 41%) and 13% for Labor (38 vs an actual of 33%).

That's an order of magnitude outside the accepted margin of errors...

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #133 on: May 18, 2019, 04:22:37 PM »
This election result will reinforce to every opposition party in the future that they should be a "small target".
And the government will take the lesson that they can ignore the polls. They're already spinning their "narrowly avoided defeat" as "crushing victory." I think the fact that Abbott was binned will be ignored, since Dutton and Christensen and so on got back in.

What both parties are ignoring is that the primary vote for someone other than LNP or ALP is up over 25% now, and that both parties suffered a national swing against them of a bit under 1%. While the ALP may be popular in Victoria and the LNP popular in Queensland, overall people are turning against the major parties. It is not clear that either of them are learning the lesson of this, which has been evidencing itself in the Senate long before the House.

It's interesting that the pre-polling and the election results were so different. Veteran electoral analyst Anthony Green says it's because of the death of landlines. Surveying companies used to ring people at home, and knew where they lived, so they could get a representative sample. Now they can only call us on our mobile phones and don't know where we live, which makes getting a representative sample harder.

This has some consequences for democracy, I believe. On any policy the polls may indicate people love or hate it, but MPs will feel justified in ignoring the polls. Instead, they will tend to listen to their own party caucus members, focus groups and lobbyists. This means more nasty internal party politics, and gives groups like GetUp, the Catholic Church, the Business Council and so on more power. Yes, the lobby groups you like, and the lobby groups you dislike, too.

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #134 on: May 18, 2019, 04:58:40 PM »
This self professed political naivete is at peace  with the result.
I'm glad that:
- Tiny Abort is gone. I hope he doesn't remerge from the darkness like a mushroom, but I'm sure he'll figure out a way to get into the limelight again somehow.
- Bill shorten has done the honourable thing and resigned immediately - I'd like to see Tania have a go.
- neg gearing and franking credits are safe for now. Whilst removing these may have some merit, deconstructing them safely is a concern I have held.

I'm sad that:
- the labour loss is partly being interpreted that Australians don't want action on climate change
- Pauline Hanson and One Nation still survives and pulls in a credible 3% or so of the vote

I'm hoping that:
- now that  they've won, the Coalition can form a majority govt.
- with Tiny and a number of other divisive personalities out of the party, ScoMo can concentrate on governing rather than surviving the infighting

Bloop Bloop

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #135 on: May 18, 2019, 05:22:52 PM »

- That a campaign based on stoking class warfare failed. Trying to create class envy for political gain to me is abhorrent, and not what Australia should stand for.
- Ditto for telling one line soundbites that don't mesh with statistics - "everything is rising except your wages" clashes rather hard with the ABS's wage and inflation data. All the parties are guilty of this kind of junk - if it were me, gaol time would be introduced for campaign fraud. All I can hope is that a rejection of this one in particular gets parties more focused on actual policy.


My thoughts exactly. The politics of envy have failed. I think Australians have an intrinsic understanding that someone on $60k and someone on $300k live similar lifestyles, just with different brands of cars, and have similar opportunities to get ahead - or not. And I think there are more people who identify with "the top end of town" than just CEOs and investment bankers.

"Everything is rising except your wages" is manifest bullshit. Nothing is rising quickly, including wages. That is the truth.

Labor bit off more than it could chew. It forgot that ordinary workers also have hopes and aspirations, and that junior employees might want to some day get boss-level pay.

Scott Morrison: he loved the Australian dream. With a vengeance.

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #136 on: May 18, 2019, 05:35:07 PM »
I'm pretty much a single issue voter, but I couldn't bring myself to hold my nose and vote for Labor this time around. Shorten got carried away and went full retard on a few issues where he probably didn't have to - franking credits, borders and climate change - and this, combined with the hubris from the MSM, has driven voters away from Labor like never before.

Any party that doesn't consider Gen IV nuclear an option isn't really serious about reducing emissions, nor fixing Australia's energy crisis. The first politician to say "we will sign a MOA with the US and develop Gen IV nuclear" will get my vote plus loyalty for at least three years.

I'm saddened by the results. I didn't necessarily like the Labor policies - some of them were quite poor - but I see the Liberal ones as a bit worse (on the whole), and I would really like our leaders to LEAD and have a VISION. I don't want us to spend yet another 4 years wandering around in the swamp, like has been happening for the last 10 years.

This![1] In addition to Gen IV nuclear there are several big ideas which could become the next Snowy River Scheme. National high speed rail. Basic income. All Scomo needs to do is reach out and grab one.

[1] I prefer the word "serve" to "lead."

Fresh Bread

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #137 on: May 18, 2019, 06:14:56 PM »
So given where I live and my interests, I was hoping for Zali Steggall to be the critical vote in a minority government.

Is it likely that the libs will be returned with a majority now?

Kyle Schuant

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #138 on: May 18, 2019, 06:54:39 PM »
We can't say, Fresh Bread. Currently the count is 74 Lib/Nat with 5 in doubt. But bear in mind our House is now up to 151 members, and that a govt must give up one of its MPs to be Speaker, and the Speaker tries to be apolitical and only vote in the case of a tie. So while 76 is a majority (76 vs 75), 77 is a working majority (76+1 vs 74).

And of course, if anyone resigns or dies during the term, there'll be a by-election, and by-elections typically go against the sitting government, which means the possibility of a change of government between elections (in practice, most Oppositions would rather go to a full election straight away than have six months and then get binned in a full election).

Which means the govt must rely on the cross-benchers. Which means... compromise. But of course, compromise is inevitable with the Senate having a large crossbench, in any case.

Todge

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #139 on: May 18, 2019, 06:56:55 PM »
Here's hoping it's the best of both worlds - strong economic management with independents swaying positive movement on climate change.

Fresh Bread

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #140 on: May 18, 2019, 07:28:29 PM »
The ABC are showing the Liberals ahead in four out of the five remaining seats but it is less than 1% between them. I guess eventually all four will get called for the Libs and they will have 78 seats. 

I'm not holding out much hope that the removal of TA will help liberal climate change policy. Tony Abbott said in his concession speech (paraphrased) that the working class electorates voted liberal to indicate that they can't afford action on climate change.

What if the party just runs with that line? Is there any chance that the liberals will recognise the cost of inaction?

My mind is trying to cover a million different trains of thought at the moment thinking of how the independents can bring change re climate given that Adam Bandt hasn't, you know?  I'll have to google "how did Kerryn Phelps get the medevac bill through". EDIT: I think because the Wentworth by-election meant that the libs became a minority government.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2019, 07:42:32 PM by Fresh Bread »

marty998

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #141 on: May 18, 2019, 07:44:02 PM »
The ABC are showing the Liberals ahead in four out of the five remaining seats but it is less than 1% between them. I guess eventually all four will get called for the Libs and they will have 78 seats. 

I'm not holding out much hope that the removal of TA will help liberal climate change policy. Tony Abbott said in his concession speech (paraphrased) that the working class electorates voted liberal to indicate that they can't afford action on climate change.

What if the party just runs with that line? Is there any chance that the liberals will recognise the cost of inaction?

My mind is trying to cover a million different trains of thought at the moment thinking of how the independents can bring change re climate given that Adam Bandt hasn't, you know?  I'll have to google "how did Kerryn Phelps get the medevac bill through".

Pretty clear that you can't rely on the government to "do something" about climate change. When you have people like Barnaby Joyce in there you know nothing will get done. It now has to be achieved on the decisions of each and every one of us take every day.

No doubt when emissions start to fall again when rooftop solar is the majority and electric cars continue to be adopted the government will claim credit for it, despite the stated policies to nobble these initiatives.

Fresh Bread

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #142 on: May 18, 2019, 08:18:48 PM »
The ABC are showing the Liberals ahead in four out of the five remaining seats but it is less than 1% between them. I guess eventually all four will get called for the Libs and they will have 78 seats. 

I'm not holding out much hope that the removal of TA will help liberal climate change policy. Tony Abbott said in his concession speech (paraphrased) that the working class electorates voted liberal to indicate that they can't afford action on climate change.

What if the party just runs with that line? Is there any chance that the liberals will recognise the cost of inaction?

My mind is trying to cover a million different trains of thought at the moment thinking of how the independents can bring change re climate given that Adam Bandt hasn't, you know?  I'll have to google "how did Kerryn Phelps get the medevac bill through".

Pretty clear that you can't rely on the government to "do something" about climate change. When you have people like Barnaby Joyce in there you know nothing will get done. It now has to be achieved on the decisions of each and every one of us take every day.

No doubt when emissions start to fall again when rooftop solar is the majority and electric cars continue to be adopted the government will claim credit for it, despite the stated policies to nobble these initiatives.

Oh yeah I know, and I'm of the belief that only reduced consumption can save us, but Zali got in with the promise she'd take some action. Just wondering if there is anything she can achieve with a lib majority.

deborah

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #143 on: May 18, 2019, 08:34:12 PM »
TA is now a has-been. Several times over. If the liberals donít recognise that they need to do a few things, they have some state governments to deal with. Like in the US, several of them are already working their way through what needs to be done.

However, the enormous elephant in the room is the Murray-Darling. Thatís going to take a referendum.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #144 on: May 18, 2019, 08:51:24 PM »
When you have people like Barnaby Joyce in there you know nothing will get done. It now has to be achieved on the decisions of each and every one of us take every day.]
This was always the case, with every social or economic change.

First people treated Aborigines as people, then the federal government gave them the vote.
First people treated same-sex couples as just couples, then the federal government recognised it in law.
First people started whacking up solar panels, then the state and federal governments subsidised it.
First people crowded onto trains, then the state and federal governments invested more in trains.
First people dodged conscription, then the government abolished it.

And so on. Governments don't lead, they follow. That's democracy. As the saying goes: live the change you want to see.

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #145 on: May 18, 2019, 10:06:45 PM »
Zali Steggall's election was amazing - even more so for her strong message rather than for Abbott's incredible rejection.  Here's hoping for Kerryn Phelps returning also, following her positive first 6 months in parliament.  But it's probably too soon to say what role the independents might play in the next parliament...



So what is the taste of the democracy sausage?

It's disappointing that the Libs have won on a vacant policy platform and a very negative message.  For example, in the most recent Q&A, Tony Jones commented to Liberal Simon Birmingham, "You sound like you're already in opposition!"

Clearly, the Libs did incredibly well to bury the hatchet, avoid culpability on any current environmental catastrophies, or dodgy integrity issues.  They successfully reframed people's voting alternatives in purely financial terms.

It's also disappointing that Labor's efforts to combine a vision-oriented policy platform and a positive message didn't cut through.  Will our pollies ever be that brave again?

Labor's economic arguments (particularly on dividends) were insufficiently developed and yet inescapably complex - a political dead-end.  They failed to challenge the Liberals' poor environmental record, lack of gender diversity, and ScoMo's lump-of-coal antics.  Labor also suffered from outrageous Murdoch media bias and Clive Palmer's well-funded attacks.  It's hardly any comfort that Palmer has currently not won any seats for the UAP.

ScoMo, the articulate ad-man, was ultimately successful in promoting a presidential campaign against the decent but enduringly unlikable Bill Shorten.  This excessive personality focus is a shame for a country that doesn't have a popular election for its leader.



And where do we go from here?

Hopefully we'll see more great local independent candidates emerging from grassroots campaigns, as both major parties continue to become increasingly unrepresentative.  It would be great to see more and more collaboration and compromise in parliament - like Phelps' Medivac Legislation - as this more inclusive process makes for better quality policies.

It also seems that Australia is sorely lacking a strong centrist party.  We need sensible moderates in the balance-of-power position in order to moderate the left and the right.  Ever since the Australian Democrats fell apart, there's not been a collective effort to "keep the bastards honest".

Climate action will require an even bigger and more concerted citizen-led effort than anything we've seen to date.  This election doesn't change the fact that we need to transition to renewable energy and a sustainable economy before the world burns.

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #146 on: May 18, 2019, 10:34:24 PM »
I think Shorten just lacked an ability to empathise with the common man. The bloke went to Xavier, studied law at Monash university and then hacked his way up the union hierarchy. He doesn't pass the pub test. Meanwhile, Morrison, for all of his awkwardness, comes across much better. Look at his victory speech. He is a preacher leading his flock.

From a FIRE perspective, it is pleasing for me that attacks on franking credits, negative gearing and the rich have failed. While I accept there are some distortions created by franking credits etc and I would be happy to consider small tinkering around the edges, I am relieved that the politics of envy, on a large scale, will no longer feature in this country's politics.

Americans look at a bloke with a nice car or nice house and wonder how he got there. Australians used to mock him. Now we are catching up with the rest of the world.

itchyfeet

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #147 on: May 18, 2019, 11:25:34 PM »
The result should make for a good week ahead on the ASX. Bottom is in.

marty998

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #148 on: May 18, 2019, 11:46:26 PM »

It also seems that Australia is sorely lacking a strong centrist party.  We need sensible moderates in the balance-of-power position in order to moderate the left and the right.  Ever since the Australian Democrats fell apart, there's not been a collective effort to "keep the bastards honest".

Call it the SPECs party. I'd vote for a party of Zalis and Kerryns. Socially progressive, economically conservative.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: #Auspol - Australia Votes 2019!
« Reply #149 on: May 19, 2019, 01:00:58 AM »
Funnily enough, Clive Palmer is actually socially progressive and economically conservative. He just needed to take $1 million off his $60 million advertising campaign and hire a strategist and speechwriter so he could have more than 177 words of official party policy.