I think expected SS is the wild-card here. You can draw more than 4% if you're getting a decent SS payment in a reasonable amount of time. The thing that makes me most leery in these situations is whether or not you're accurately predicting your expenses. You may spend $2,700 most months, but are you accounting for expenses like a new car, new roof, big medical bill, insurance premiums, etc. that come up rarely but predictably.