Author Topic: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?  (Read 3649 times)

AMandM

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Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« on: February 19, 2018, 01:27:22 PM »
My frugal daughter and son-in-law have a hand-me-down 1998 Nissan Quest. Their goal was to drive it until hybrid-electric minivans came onto the used market. Unfortunately, it died a couple of weeks ago, right before baby #2 was born.  For now, while DD is on maternity leave, they are managing without a car; I'm not sure how long they will be able to keep that up once she goes back to work. (At the very least they will probably have to upgrade to a smartphone and get Uber!)  Assuming they do need (in some reasonable sense of the word) a car, what do you think is their best bet?

-repair the Quest--probably at least $800 if it's possible to get the parts (which isn't always possible--there's no heat or AC because of unavailable parts)
-buy a hybrid-electric minivan now (which would mean buying new), and not buy another car for 15-20 years
-buy a used minivan to last until used hybrids come on the market
-buy a smaller used car on the thought that they won't need all the space of a minivan right away, and replace with a used hybrid when 7 seats are needed
-forget about the hybrid and just buy a used recent minivan to last the next 10-15 years
-some other idea?

Thanks for your perspective!

Lady SA

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2018, 01:38:39 PM »
this is hard to answer without knowing more about their assets. Do they have enough to buy a car, either used or new, outright on hand? Do they have an emergency fund?

Until I know more info, I would probably aim to spend the least amount possible. So in order:

1. bring car to a mechanic and get a repair estimate. $800-$1500 is a lot cheaper than buying a new-to-you car!
2. How far away is DD's or her husband's work? Can they get away with carpooling, biking?
3. if the van can't be repaired for a reasonable sum and they need a second car, I would vote for buying a used car, not a new one, to last another 10 years or so. THEN pick up a used hybrid minivan.


AMandM

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2018, 03:23:17 PM »
Thanks, LadySA.  They do have an emergency fund, and they are living well below their income, paying down student loans and contributing to get the employer match on retirement. This is their only car. They've been saving for a car, since the Quest is so old, but so far they only have enough cash for a used car, certainly not the $40k a hybrid would cost.

ShoulderThingThatGoesUp

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2018, 04:35:42 AM »
Why do they need a minivan? Lots of used PHEVs available that can fit a family, like my C-Max. (I have three kids, all rear-facing for now.)

If theyíre going to plug in the Pacifica itís a fine choice if they pay enough federal taxes to make use of the credit and the new larger child tax credit, but itís not easy to pay that much in taxes in 2018 with two kids and a single income.

My choice would be a used plug-in car.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2018, 08:29:30 AM »
Would I buy a *new* hybrid van? (or brand new any-sort-of-vehicle?) Heck, no.  In a few years, if used hybrid vans are available for a reasonable price, oh, yes.  DW does enough running around that it would likely pay for itself.

I think Lady SA has the right idea.  Also, do they plan on having more kids?  If no, then owning a minivan is silly.

When you say their old van "died," that to me does not mean the same thing as "the heat went out."

ketchup

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #5 on: February 20, 2018, 09:07:05 AM »
When you say their old van "died," that to me does not mean the same thing as "the heat went out."
Absolutely.  If my car "dies" that means you'll have to Frankenstein a new engine in there to bring it back to life.

I don't think a $40k minivan makes a lick of sense.  Is there a reason they're married to the idea of a hybrid minivan?  A hybrid minivan makes sense when it's the most cost-effective option when broken out to per-year or per-mile total cost.  It sounds like it's not.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #6 on: February 20, 2018, 09:12:39 AM »
Important points
-2017 Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid is the introductory year for this vehicle, so it's essentially a brand new model
-There were a fair amount of problems with the 2017, including a large recall, forcing Chrysler to stop shipment as resume with "2018" models
-I can't find any used ones for sale, unsurprisingly
-The cheapest new ones that I can find in my area cost just over $42,000
-The internet says that this car does qualify for the maximum federal tax credit
-You need a federal tax liability of at least $7500 in the year you put it into service, no carryover allowed

Based on the first two points alone, I'd recommend repair or a cheap econobox to tide them over until they actually need the van.

As an aside, I understand where they are coming from a little. I too also like to make bold statements to family and friends. After I bought my VW Jetta Sportswagen, I declared that my next car would be electric. In 2011, the Nissan Leaf was introduced, I signed up for the initial launch, was notified that my car was ready on Labor Day weekend 2011, and took the DW to test drive. We declined to purchase for the same reasons as the top three bullet points. I did end up getting one (and it was my next car), but I waited until 2015 when the car had more data about reliability, kinks had been worked out, and the battery was expanded. I have again made another bold statement, that this will be the last car I will ever purchase, assuming that I will ditch this car and sign up for a subscription to an automated driverless car service once those become available.

AMandM

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #7 on: February 22, 2018, 09:24:38 PM »
Why do they need a minivan? Lots of used PHEVs available that can fit a family, like my C-Max. (I have three kids, all rear-facing for now.)

Hmm, had not thought of a smaller PHEV than a minivan. Thanks for that idea! 
Their nuclear family doesn't really *need* a minivan right now, though they do hope to have more kids.

AMandM

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #8 on: February 22, 2018, 09:35:10 PM »
When you say their old van "died," that to me does not mean the same thing as "the heat went out."

You're right, of course. Sorry if I was unclear. The lack of heat and AC was one of the pre-existing conditions, as it were. I mentioned it just to illustrate that repairs aren't always possible because the parts aren't always available. The van died in the sense that all of a sudden the engine started to make an insanely loud banging noise and the alternator stopped working. So they're thinking that maybe it's not smart to spend $800+ on repairs, to end up with a car with no temp control, a cracked windshield, a side window held on with duct tape, etc.

ShoulderThingThatGoesUp

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #9 on: February 23, 2018, 05:12:15 AM »
Why do they need a minivan? Lots of used PHEVs available that can fit a family, like my C-Max. (I have three kids, all rear-facing for now.)

Hmm, had not thought of a smaller PHEV than a minivan. Thanks for that idea! 
Their nuclear family doesn't really *need* a minivan right now, though they do hope to have more kids.

Hereís a good comparison of plug-in cars available in the US market.

Bourbon

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #10 on: April 23, 2018, 08:42:24 PM »
PTF.  We're a growing family(4 and 5 coming) and I have a free SVU right now until the fall of 2019 that I can squeeze them into, but at some point along the way the rational choice will be a minivan.  Would love a brown hybrid manual minivan, but will get as close as possible.

Have looked some at the Ford Transit connect and other cargo/passenger vans when I try to find an alternative to the favorites.  As much as I like the idea of the hybrid though, right now I think the only one out is the new Pacifica(I'm not a fan of Chrysler generally, and it's new as someone pointed out).  I think it will make more sense in the long run to buy a moderately used minivan. 

For their case, they can probably upgrade significantly from the 98 quest, without dropping ludicrous new van pricing. I think most brands went through significant design changes around '11 or '12 that are about two major upgrades past the 98.  But as others have pointed out, the minivan is a bit more than a family of 4 really needs.  That's still sedan/hatch territory.  Could be Prius or Prius V if they could really benefit from the hybrid route.

Slow2FIRE

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #11 on: April 23, 2018, 09:08:59 PM »
Without a large family requiring a 3rd row of seating, it is harder to justify.

Do they live in a state with significant credits and does the utility offer credits?  With the right combination of utility, federal incentive and state incentives you can come close to $15,000 of rebates on some plug in vehicles.

However, with the new tax law and 2 kids you probably have to earn about $115,000 AFTER 401K contributions (and any other pre-tax deductions like HSA and health insurance) to pay $7500 in federal income taxes and make use of the full federal tax incentive.

boarder42

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #12 on: April 24, 2018, 06:31:17 AM »
either a cheap used van or repair - buying a new van with the though that they will drive it for 15-20 years IMO is a poor choice - cars and transportation will be dramatically changed over the next 6-10 years and we wont be driving like we used - computers will drive us and people will use uber like services.  that brand new van will be worth its weight in scrap metal in 6-10 years.  So buy used.

AZDude

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #13 on: April 25, 2018, 12:18:43 PM »
Does it have to be a minivan? You could look at getting a used Prius V or Ford C-Max or something similar.

A quick search shows you can get a C-Max for ~$9K or a Prius V for ~$14.

What is the price range you are looking at?

boarder42

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #14 on: April 25, 2018, 02:11:50 PM »
buying a brand new car with an ICE in it now is like buying a vcr and bunch of VHS tapes a few years before the DVD player came out.  only electric cars are already here and will supplant the ICE in short order.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #15 on: April 25, 2018, 02:38:47 PM »
buying a brand new car with an ICE in it now is like buying a vcr and bunch of VHS tapes a few years before the DVD player came out.  only electric cars are already here and will supplant the ICE in short order.
Eh, it isn't going to be such a rapid transition.  As EVs gain marketshare, you'll see a drop in demand for gasoline, which will slow the shift in demand away from gasoline cars to EVs.  Barring a major breakthrough in battery energy density, there's still nothing that'll beat an ICE for moving stuff a long way.  Charging times (currently) make EVs a non-starter for cross-country trips.

acroy

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #16 on: April 25, 2018, 02:54:34 PM »
buying a brand new car with an ICE in it now is like buying a vcr and bunch of VHS tapes a few years before the DVD player came out.  only electric cars are already here and will supplant the ICE in short order.
lol - funny!!

Seriously OP, get a 2-3yr old Nissan Quest and be happy. For some reason the Nissans are cheap + reliable.

We were in a similar situation a few years back and bought a 2008 Quest in 2010 for 15k. Drove it 50k and sold it for $9k. So it cost us about 1k/yr in depreciation, got 25mpg+ on the highway, and had under $200 in (minor) repair parts.

Kia, Hyundai may be worth looking into.

I would lean away from getting a smaller vehicle, Transit connect, etc as the purchase price and actual fuel economy are not that different.

check out http://www.fuelly.com/ for REAL mpgs and http://www.dashboard-light.com/ for reliability.

good luck!!

AZDude

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #17 on: April 25, 2018, 02:59:23 PM »
True, but I think faster charging is what will eventually put an end to the ICE era. A charge that takes 10 minutes, for example, would be good enough to make gasoline powered cars obsolete. We have already come a long way from when the Prius initially put the thought of hybrid/electric cars into the mainstream.

Right now, on a smaller scale, batteries can be fully charged in a hour or less. Its not inconceivable that 10 years from now, you could have batteries and charging stations capable of a 75% charge in 10 minutes.

boarder42

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #18 on: April 25, 2018, 03:08:24 PM »
True, but I think faster charging is what will eventually put an end to the ICE era. A charge that takes 10 minutes, for example, would be good enough to make gasoline powered cars obsolete. We have already come a long way from when the Prius initially put the thought of hybrid/electric cars into the mainstream.

Right now, on a smaller scale, batteries can be fully charged in a hour or less. Its not inconceivable that 10 years from now, you could have batteries and charging stations capable of a 75% charge in 10 minutes.
95% of personal driving does not require a charge outside of nightly

AZDude

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #19 on: April 25, 2018, 03:17:44 PM »
You are right, but that 5% is what prevents an all-electric fleet on America's roadways.

Slow2FIRE

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #20 on: April 26, 2018, 05:42:01 PM »
buying a brand new car with an ICE in it now is like buying a vcr and bunch of VHS tapes a few years before the DVD player came out.  only electric cars are already here and will supplant the ICE in short order.
Eh, it isn't going to be such a rapid transition.  As EVs gain marketshare, you'll see a drop in demand for gasoline, which will slow the shift in demand away from gasoline cars to EVs.  Barring a major breakthrough in battery energy density, there's still nothing that'll beat an ICE for moving stuff a long way.  Charging times (currently) make EVs a non-starter for cross-country trips.

It will certainly take a change in mindset, but as more people "know" someone with an electric car they will also find out that very few people and very few instances actually require cross-country trips. 

WRT "moving stuff a long way" -> sure, heavy duty long hauling will likely stay ICE for a longer period of time, but the vast majority of average consumer households are not "moving stuff a long way".  We are going to rent a truck (from Uhaul, Penske, Budget, etc) when we have a need for "moving stuff a long way".  I would never buy a large vehicle for the 1 trip every 2-4 years that requires "moving stuff a long way".  Far cheaper (fiscally and environmentally) to rent a vehicle suitable for that purpose for those rare events.

Optimiser

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #21 on: April 26, 2018, 05:57:53 PM »
If I were in their position I'd buy a lowish mile 10 year old van (or a hybrid car if they can get by with something smaller than a van) from an Asian car company.

I love the idea of a plug-in hybrid minivan and would like to own one someday, but not for 40k.

boarder42

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #22 on: April 26, 2018, 08:00:25 PM »
buying a brand new car with an ICE in it now is like buying a vcr and bunch of VHS tapes a few years before the DVD player came out.  only electric cars are already here and will supplant the ICE in short order.
Eh, it isn't going to be such a rapid transition.  As EVs gain marketshare, you'll see a drop in demand for gasoline, which will slow the shift in demand away from gasoline cars to EVs.  Barring a major breakthrough in battery energy density, there's still nothing that'll beat an ICE for moving stuff a long way.  Charging times (currently) make EVs a non-starter for cross-country trips.

It will certainly take a change in mindset, but as more people "know" someone with an electric car they will also find out that very few people and very few instances actually require cross-country trips. 

WRT "moving stuff a long way" -> sure, heavy duty long hauling will likely stay ICE for a longer period of time, but the vast majority of average consumer households are not "moving stuff a long way".  We are going to rent a truck (from Uhaul, Penske, Budget, etc) when we have a need for "moving stuff a long way".  I would never buy a large vehicle for the 1 trip every 2-4 years that requires "moving stuff a long way".  Far cheaper (fiscally and environmentally) to rent a vehicle suitable for that purpose for those rare events.

This post is not about buying a semi to start a trucking business it's about buying a mini van

CCCA

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #23 on: April 26, 2018, 10:50:20 PM »
Buy a used vehicle now, and then a used hybrid electric minivan in 10 years.

chemistk

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #24 on: April 27, 2018, 05:51:36 AM »
The lack of heat and AC was one of the pre-existing conditions, as it were. I mentioned it just to illustrate that repairs aren't always possible because the parts aren't always available. The van died in the sense that all of a sudden the engine started to make an insanely loud banging noise and the alternator stopped working. So they're thinking that maybe it's not smart to spend $800+ on repairs, to end up with a car with no temp control, a cracked windshield, a side window held on with duct tape, etc.

Those issues sound like they're indicative of a bigger problem than "just $800 in repairs". Knowing that, it would probably be wise to not have the car repaired.

Otherwise, I'd heed the advice of others here - used is the way to go. I think it might benefit them to evaluate exactly what they need from their car and if a van is really for them right now. Driving something smaller, and less expensive (a used Prius perhaps) now could allow them to save for a van if/when they need it.

boarder42

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #25 on: April 27, 2018, 06:07:10 AM »
Buy a used vehicle now, and then a used hybrid electric minivan in 10 years.

great plan except they wont be available in 10 years b/c no one will be driving them.  but the first part will bridge the gap.

ShoulderThingThatGoesUp

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #26 on: April 27, 2018, 06:22:26 AM »
Buy a used vehicle now, and then a used hybrid electric minivan in 10 years.

great plan except they wont be available in 10 years b/c no one will be driving them.  but the first part will bridge the gap.

I own a PHEV and I donít think itíll be so rapid that used Pacifica Hybrids wonít be available in ten years. I would love to believe that gas stations are going the way of Sears, but Sears still exists.

boarder42

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #27 on: April 27, 2018, 08:14:53 AM »
Buy a used vehicle now, and then a used hybrid electric minivan in 10 years.

great plan except they wont be available in 10 years b/c no one will be driving them.  but the first part will bridge the gap.

I own a PHEV and I donít think itíll be so rapid that used Pacifica Hybrids wonít be available in ten years. I would love to believe that gas stations are going the way of Sears, but Sears still exists.

yeah so do horses.  but you're regulated to very small areas where you can really utilize them safely.  and they're not seen as an actual form of transportation anymore.  Tech moves faster and faster ICE will be obsolete at a minimum for personal transit and likely for all road transit by that point.  Charging isnt a factor for large trucking you just change you logistical infrastructure to move large loads long distances and either battery swap or swap out the truck and let the next one charge - its a bit of a mindset change but buying a brand new car that has an ICE in it now and doesnt have the equipment to be autonomous is a very poor way to spend your little green soldiers - i mean what happens if i'm wrong - you still overpaid for a car and had higher insurance and Property tax costs over the next 10 years than buying a good used car - if i'm right now your 40k car with an ICE in it is worth its scrap weight in 10 years.   the original poster here that i replied to said by used now get the next car in 10 years which is a great plan b/c if i am right then the OP will be in great shape b/c they can sell their used car for scrap.

CCCA

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #28 on: April 27, 2018, 09:22:54 AM »
Buy a used vehicle now, and then a used hybrid electric minivan in 10 years.

great plan except they wont be available in 10 years b/c no one will be driving them.  but the first part will bridge the gap.

I own a PHEV and I don’t think it’ll be so rapid that used Pacifica Hybrids won’t be available in ten years. I would love to believe that gas stations are going the way of Sears, but Sears still exists.

yeah so do horses.  but you're regulated to very small areas where you can really utilize them safely.  and they're not seen as an actual form of transportation anymore.  Tech moves faster and faster ICE will be obsolete at a minimum for personal transit and likely for all road transit by that point.  Charging isnt a factor for large trucking you just change you logistical infrastructure to move large loads long distances and either battery swap or swap out the truck and let the next one charge - its a bit of a mindset change but buying a brand new car that has an ICE in it now and doesnt have the equipment to be autonomous is a very poor way to spend your little green soldiers - i mean what happens if i'm wrong - you still overpaid for a car and had higher insurance and Property tax costs over the next 10 years than buying a good used car - if i'm right now your 40k car with an ICE in it is worth its scrap weight in 10 years.   the original poster here that i replied to said by used now get the next car in 10 years which is a great plan b/c if i am right then the OP will be in great shape b/c they can sell their used car for scrap.
I wish the transition to clean transport would happen that fast but I’m going to guess that EVs and PHEVs will still together be under 50% of total new sales in 10 years (maybe well under). Which with the long lived nature of personal cars  (they live on average for 15 years) we’ll have at most 20-30% of cars on the road that plug in.

I know you think this time is different. I can’t say that it isn’t. But you should and probably do understand that we aren’t at 1% yet for plug in car sales market share. People, infrastructure and instructions don’t change that fast generally.  Heck there are lots of people who don’t even know you can buy an electric car. Thee are lots of other people who would say right now that they would never buy an electric car because it’s what liberals and California likes.

boarder42

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #29 on: April 27, 2018, 10:58:57 AM »
Buy a used vehicle now, and then a used hybrid electric minivan in 10 years.

great plan except they wont be available in 10 years b/c no one will be driving them.  but the first part will bridge the gap.

I own a PHEV and I donít think itíll be so rapid that used Pacifica Hybrids wonít be available in ten years. I would love to believe that gas stations are going the way of Sears, but Sears still exists.

yeah so do horses.  but you're regulated to very small areas where you can really utilize them safely.  and they're not seen as an actual form of transportation anymore.  Tech moves faster and faster ICE will be obsolete at a minimum for personal transit and likely for all road transit by that point.  Charging isnt a factor for large trucking you just change you logistical infrastructure to move large loads long distances and either battery swap or swap out the truck and let the next one charge - its a bit of a mindset change but buying a brand new car that has an ICE in it now and doesnt have the equipment to be autonomous is a very poor way to spend your little green soldiers - i mean what happens if i'm wrong - you still overpaid for a car and had higher insurance and Property tax costs over the next 10 years than buying a good used car - if i'm right now your 40k car with an ICE in it is worth its scrap weight in 10 years.   the original poster here that i replied to said by used now get the next car in 10 years which is a great plan b/c if i am right then the OP will be in great shape b/c they can sell their used car for scrap.
I wish the transition to clean transport would happen that fast but Iím going to guess that EVs and PHEVs will still together be under 50% of total new sales in 10 years (maybe well under). Which with the long lived nature of personal cars  (they live on average for 15 years) weíll have at most 20-30% of cars on the road that plug in.

I know you think this time is different. I canít say that it isnít. But you should and probably do understand that we arenít at 1% yet for plug in car sales market share. People, infrastructure and instructions donít change that fast generally.  Heck there are lots of people who donít even know you can buy an electric car. Thee are lots of other people who would say right now that they would never buy an electric car because itís what liberals and California likes.

this is a technological disruption on the scale of the internet or the computer or the cell phone.  when they come they come fast and people dont even necessarily need to own the cars when its cheaper and more convient to not do something society moves that way.  tech goes from no use to massive use very quickly and in short order regardless of what the previous tech was. 

CCCA

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #30 on: April 27, 2018, 12:03:38 PM »
Buy a used vehicle now, and then a used hybrid electric minivan in 10 years.

great plan except they wont be available in 10 years b/c no one will be driving them.  but the first part will bridge the gap.

I own a PHEV and I don’t think it’ll be so rapid that used Pacifica Hybrids won’t be available in ten years. I would love to believe that gas stations are going the way of Sears, but Sears still exists.

yeah so do horses.  but you're regulated to very small areas where you can really utilize them safely.  and they're not seen as an actual form of transportation anymore.  Tech moves faster and faster ICE will be obsolete at a minimum for personal transit and likely for all road transit by that point.  Charging isnt a factor for large trucking you just change you logistical infrastructure to move large loads long distances and either battery swap or swap out the truck and let the next one charge - its a bit of a mindset change but buying a brand new car that has an ICE in it now and doesnt have the equipment to be autonomous is a very poor way to spend your little green soldiers - i mean what happens if i'm wrong - you still overpaid for a car and had higher insurance and Property tax costs over the next 10 years than buying a good used car - if i'm right now your 40k car with an ICE in it is worth its scrap weight in 10 years.   the original poster here that i replied to said by used now get the next car in 10 years which is a great plan b/c if i am right then the OP will be in great shape b/c they can sell their used car for scrap.
I wish the transition to clean transport would happen that fast but I’m going to guess that EVs and PHEVs will still together be under 50% of total new sales in 10 years (maybe well under). Which with the long lived nature of personal cars  (they live on average for 15 years) we’ll have at most 20-30% of cars on the road that plug in.

I know you think this time is different. I can’t say that it isn’t. But you should and probably do understand that we aren’t at 1% yet for plug in car sales market share. People, infrastructure and instructions don’t change that fast generally.  Heck there are lots of people who don’t even know you can buy an electric car. Thee are lots of other people who would say right now that they would never buy an electric car because it’s what liberals and California likes.

this is a technological disruption on the scale of the internet or the computer or the cell phone.  when they come they come fast and people dont even necessarily need to own the cars when its cheaper and more convient to not do something society moves that way.  tech goes from no use to massive use very quickly and in short order regardless of what the previous tech was.
It isn’t yet. It very well may be and I would be happy if it was but there’s no guarantee on that.  I’m very aware of the optimism about this tech disruption but I’m not convinced.

There are only a few examples of tech disruption that you are talking about. Internet and smartphones. History is littered with other examples of people saying things would be world changing that weren’t or just took a lot longer than expected.

I’m hoping for a shared, autonomous, electric vehicle future and I think it’ll happen in my lifetime, but much longer than a 100% complete shift in a decade.

boarder42

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #31 on: April 30, 2018, 08:02:52 AM »
Buy a used vehicle now, and then a used hybrid electric minivan in 10 years.

great plan except they wont be available in 10 years b/c no one will be driving them.  but the first part will bridge the gap.

I own a PHEV and I donít think itíll be so rapid that used Pacifica Hybrids wonít be available in ten years. I would love to believe that gas stations are going the way of Sears, but Sears still exists.

yeah so do horses.  but you're regulated to very small areas where you can really utilize them safely.  and they're not seen as an actual form of transportation anymore.  Tech moves faster and faster ICE will be obsolete at a minimum for personal transit and likely for all road transit by that point.  Charging isnt a factor for large trucking you just change you logistical infrastructure to move large loads long distances and either battery swap or swap out the truck and let the next one charge - its a bit of a mindset change but buying a brand new car that has an ICE in it now and doesnt have the equipment to be autonomous is a very poor way to spend your little green soldiers - i mean what happens if i'm wrong - you still overpaid for a car and had higher insurance and Property tax costs over the next 10 years than buying a good used car - if i'm right now your 40k car with an ICE in it is worth its scrap weight in 10 years.   the original poster here that i replied to said by used now get the next car in 10 years which is a great plan b/c if i am right then the OP will be in great shape b/c they can sell their used car for scrap.
I wish the transition to clean transport would happen that fast but Iím going to guess that EVs and PHEVs will still together be under 50% of total new sales in 10 years (maybe well under). Which with the long lived nature of personal cars  (they live on average for 15 years) weíll have at most 20-30% of cars on the road that plug in.

I know you think this time is different. I canít say that it isnít. But you should and probably do understand that we arenít at 1% yet for plug in car sales market share. People, infrastructure and instructions donít change that fast generally.  Heck there are lots of people who donít even know you can buy an electric car. Thee are lots of other people who would say right now that they would never buy an electric car because itís what liberals and California likes.

this is a technological disruption on the scale of the internet or the computer or the cell phone.  when they come they come fast and people dont even necessarily need to own the cars when its cheaper and more convient to not do something society moves that way.  tech goes from no use to massive use very quickly and in short order regardless of what the previous tech was.
It isnít yet. It very well may be and I would be happy if it was but thereís no guarantee on that.  Iím very aware of the optimism about this tech disruption but Iím not convinced.

There are only a few examples of tech disruption that you are talking about. Internet and smartphones. History is littered with other examples of people saying things would be world changing that werenít or just took a lot longer than expected.

Iím hoping for a shared, autonomous, electric vehicle future and I think itíll happen in my lifetime, but much longer than a 100% complete shift in a decade.

this is already happening faster than expectations were and have been.  but i'll eat my words in 10 years if we're not there i just highly doubt that will be the case.  the automous driving us everywhere is the stretch the ICE being defunct is not really a stretch its just a short matter of time. b/c that tech is here and affordable and decreasing rapidly in cost.

Prairie Stash

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #32 on: April 30, 2018, 04:35:28 PM »
OP - Fix the car. If nothing else, how much would you get for selling a broken down heap? In my area a broken heap goes for about $200 (depends on the model). Its pretty annoying having a broken van sitting in your parking spot, even more annoying if you want to park a different vehicle there.

The decion to purchase is seperate from the decision on how to handle the broken van. You either fix it or tow it away; only a mechanic and a reasonable estimate of sale price will factor in. After that I would probably buy a used car/mini van for $5000. My total gasoline cost over the life (200,000 km, 20 years) of my car is going to be about $24,000 (I might be off by a few thousand, hard to predict for the next 20 years), how much does a new electric van cost? Over that 20 years, how many batteries will it need changed, I'm guessing twice, I have no idea how much that would cost.

The great thing about used cars, you can always change your mind at any point of time and buy new; you can't undo spending on a brand new Pacifica though (MSRP of $38,000).

In my case, I wouldn't spend $38,000 to save $24,000, but that's just me.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #33 on: May 01, 2018, 09:56:16 AM »
In my case, I wouldn't spend $38,000 to save $24,000, but that's just me.
Nicely put.  It's even worse than that, when you factor in inflation/opportunity cost--you take the $38k hit right away when buying new, while it takes 20 years to save the $24k.

ketchup

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #34 on: May 04, 2018, 12:57:02 PM »
this is a technological disruption on the scale of the internet or the computer or the cell phone.  when they come they come fast and people dont even necessarily need to own the cars when its cheaper and more convient to not do something society moves that way.  tech goes from no use to massive use very quickly and in short order regardless of what the previous tech was.
It isnít yet. It very well may be and I would be happy if it was but thereís no guarantee on that.  Iím very aware of the optimism about this tech disruption but Iím not convinced.

There are only a few examples of tech disruption that you are talking about. Internet and smartphones. History is littered with other examples of people saying things would be world changing that werenít or just took a lot longer than expected.

Iím hoping for a shared, autonomous, electric vehicle future and I think itíll happen in my lifetime, but much longer than a 100% complete shift in a decade.

this is already happening faster than expectations were and have been.  but i'll eat my words in 10 years if we're not there i just highly doubt that will be the case.  the automous driving us everywhere is the stretch the ICE being defunct is not really a stretch its just a short matter of time. b/c that tech is here and affordable and decreasing rapidly in cost.
I think the apt comparison here is the transition to digital cameras from film.  That happened in the blink of an eye (less than five years from ~5% market penetration) and by the end demand for film was basically gone beyond some hobbyists.

boarder42

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #35 on: May 04, 2018, 01:25:52 PM »
yep thats a good graph.  better - cheaper - more convient - total disruption.
from driving perspective there is very little need for range above the 300miles we are currently at.  thats already 10x the 29.2 miles per day the avg person drives. 

I dont know about the other commuters here but i absolutely hate to fill up with gas its an annoying utlity that if you look at the actual time spent refueling vs the number of cross country trips you'd take where you'd spend 15-20 mins instead of 5-10 you're spending much less life hours filling up a car with energy.  assuming 30 miles per gallon and a 15 gallon tank 10mins per gas station trip including the extra driving too and from even if on the way - you're looking at filling up with gas 24 times a year for a total of 240 mins spent gassing up a car that would by you 20 pit stops on a road trip that would be 3k miles to a destination and back.  and the speed to fill batteries is decreasing.  add to it the time spent on an oil change or wiating for someone to change it plus the additional maint. costs and these cars get really attractive really fast.

ketchup

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Re: Would you buy a hybrid electric minivan now?
« Reply #36 on: May 04, 2018, 01:55:48 PM »
yep thats a good graph.  better - cheaper - more convient - total disruption.
from driving perspective there is very little need for range above the 300miles we are currently at.  thats already 10x the 29.2 miles per day the avg person drives. 

I dont know about the other commuters here but i absolutely hate to fill up with gas its an annoying utlity that if you look at the actual time spent refueling vs the number of cross country trips you'd take where you'd spend 15-20 mins instead of 5-10 you're spending much less life hours filling up a car with energy.  assuming 30 miles per gallon and a 15 gallon tank 10mins per gas station trip including the extra driving too and from even if on the way - you're looking at filling up with gas 24 times a year for a total of 240 mins spent gassing up a car that would by you 20 pit stops on a road trip that would be 3k miles to a destination and back.  and the speed to fill batteries is decreasing.  add to it the time spent on an oil change or wiating for someone to change it plus the additional maint. costs and these cars get really attractive really fast.
I agree 100%.  If I were car shopping right now, there's no way I'd count on it being anything more than a five-year car.  Shit's going to change quickly.  I sure wouldn't have wanted to have spent $3500 on a 35mm Nikon F5 in 1998.